We've updated the chart to reflect Democrat Travis Childers' win in the Mississippi 1 special election, making him the incumbent in November. But we're keeping the race as a Toss-up for now until we know more about the national environment and the effect of the presidential race. And after Cong. Vito Fossella's retirement announced in New York 13, we're moving the race to Toss-Up/Tilt Republican until there is some clarity in the field of replacement candidates.
PURE TOSS-UP (7 R, 8 D)
- AL 5 (Open; Cramer, D)
- AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R)
- CA 11 (McNerney, D)
- FL 16 (Mahoney, D)
- KS 2 (Boyda, D)
- LA 6 (Cazayoux, D)
- MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
- MS 1 (Childers, D)
- NJ 7 (Open; Ferguson, R)
- NY 26 (Open; Reynolds, R)
- NM1 (Open; Wilson, R)
- OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)
- OH 16 (Open; Regula, R)
- OR 5 (Open; Hooley, D)
- PA 10 (Carney, D)
TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (7 R, 1 D)
- AK A-L (Young, R)
- IL 10 (Kirk, R)
- LA 4 (Open; McCrery, R)
- NY 13 (Open; Fosella, R)
- NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
- NC 8 (Hayes, R)
- TX 22 (Lampson, D)
- WA 8 (Reichert, R)
TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (1 R, 2 D)
- GA 8 (Marshall, D)
- NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
- NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)
LEAN REPUBLICAN (8 R, 0 D)
- CT 4 (Shays, R)
- FL 24 (Feeney, R)
- MI 7 (Walberg, R)
- MI 9 (Knollenberg, R)
- MO 6 (Graves, R)
- NV 3 (Porter, R)
- OH 1 (Chabot, R)
- OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
LEAN DEMOCRATIC (3 R, 8 D)
- AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
- AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
- IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)
- IN 9 (Hill, D)
- KY 3 (Yarmuth, D)
- KS 3 (Moore, D)
- MN 1 (Walz, D)
- NY 25 (Open; Walsh, R)
- PA 4 (Altmire, D)
- VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)
- WI 8 (Kagen, D)
REPUBLICAN FAVORED (12 R, 0 D)
- AL 2 (Open; Everett, R)
- CA 4 (Open; Doolittle, R)
- CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
- FL 8 (Keller, R)
- FL 13 (Buchanan, R)
- IL 6 (Roskam, R)
- KY 2 (Open; Lewis, R)
- MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
- NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R)
- PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
- PA 18 (Murphy, R)
- WV 2 (Capito, R)
DEMOCRAT FAVORED (0 R, 6 D)
- IL 8 (Bean, D)
- IL 14 (Foster, D)
- NY 20 (Gillibrand, D)
- OH 18 (Space, D)
- PA 8 (Murphy, D)
- PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)