MA Sen Moved to Lean Takeover

While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow’s race to fill the remainder of the late-Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat.

Brown is running extremely well with Independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone’s expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win. Move from Toss-Up to Lean Takeover.

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

• Reid (D-NV)
  
• MA Open (Kirk, D) *
• ND Open (Dorgan, D)
• DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)

• KY Open (Bunning, R)
  
• MO Open (Bond, R)
• NH Open (Gregg, R)
• OH Open (Voinovich, R)
• IL Open (Burris, D)
• Bennet (D-CO)
• Lincoln (D-AR)
  
• Specter (D-PA)
  

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 0 D)

• Burr (R-NC)
• Vitter (R-LA)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

• Grassley (R-IA)
• FL Open (LeMieux, R)
• CT Open (Dodd, D)
  

Currently Safe (10 R, 10 D)

• Bennett (R-UT)
• Coburn (R-OK)
• Crapo (R-ID)
• DeMint (R-SC)
• Isakson (R-GA)
• McCain (R-AZ)
• Murkowski (R-AK)
• Shelby (R-AL)
• Thune (R-SD)
• KS Open (Brownback, R)
• Bayh (D-IN)
• Boxer (D-CA)
• Feingold (D-WI)
• Gillibrand (D-NY)
• Inouye (D-HI)
• Leahy (D-VT)
• Mikulski (D-MD)
• Murray (D-WA)
• Schumer (D-NY)
• Wyden (D-OR)