Michigan 1 Moved to Toss-Up

Michigan Cong. Bart Stupak's (D) retirement creates another open seat opportunity for the Republicans. The 1st District is competitive, but in this political climate, Republicans may have the slight edge. Since the seat has been open for all of a few hours, it will take a few weeks for the candidate fields to solidify. For now, we've moved the race to Toss-Up.

We just finished our House Overview, so subscribers to the print edition of The Rothenberg Political Report will get the first look at our ratings changes (in almost four dozen other races) early next week. Stay tuned...

Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 12 D)

• AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
  
• AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D)
• CO 4 (Markey, D)
• IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
• IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D)
• MI 1 (Open; Stupak, D) *
  
• MI 7 (Schauer, D)
• NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
• NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
• NY 29 (Open; Massa, D) Special Election
  
• PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
• TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
• WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 10 D)

• AL 2 (Bright, D)
• FL 8 (Grayson, D)
• ID 1 (Minnick, D)
• KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
• MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
• MS 1 (Childers, D)
• NM 2 (Teague, D)
• OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
• OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
• VA 5 (Perriello, D)

Lean Republican (3 R, 2 D)

• CA 3 (Lungren, R)
• LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
• PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
  
• TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D)
• WA 8 (Reichert, R)
  

Republican Favored (8 R, 0 D)

• CA 44 (Calvert, R)
• CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
• MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
• MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
• NE 2 (Terry, R)
• OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
• OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
• PA 15 (Dent, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 3 D)

• FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
• IL 14 (Foster, D)
• VA 2 (Nye, D)

Lean Democratic (0 R, 10 D)

• HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) Special Election
• IN 9 (Hill, D)
• MO 4 (Skelton, D)
• NV 3 (Titus, D)
• NY 1 (Bishop, D)
• NY 19 (Hall, D)
• NY 23 (Owens, D)
• NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
• SC 5 (Spratt, D)
• WV 1 (Mollohan, D)

Democrat Favored (2 R, 24 D)

• AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
• AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
• CO 3 (Salazar, D)
• CA 11 (McNerney, D)
• CA 47 (Sanchez, D)
• CT 5 (Murphy, D)
  
• DE A-L (Open; Castle, R)
• GA 8 (Marshall, D)
• IA 3 (Boswell, D)
• LA 2 (Cao, R)
• MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D)
  
• NY 13 (McMahon, D)
• NY 20 (Murphy, D)
• NC 8 (Kissell, D)
• ND A-L (Pomeroy, D)
• NJ 3 (Adler, D)
• OH 16 (Boccieri, D)
• OH 18 (Space, D)
• PA 4 (Altmire, D)
• PA 8 (Murphy, D)
• PA 10 (Carney, D)
• PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)
• PA 12 (Open; Murtha, D) Special Election
  
• PA 17 (Holden, D)
• SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)
• TX 17 (Edwards, D)
• VA 9 (Boucher, D)
• WI 8 (Kagen, D)

Total seats in play: 77
Republican seats: 14
Democratic seats: 63