Former Democratic Cong. Ed Case and state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa (D) are dividing the Democratic vote and allowing Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) the opportunity to finish first in the winner-take-all special election with significantly less than 50% of the vote.
Because of the unique situation, it is unwise to draw dramatic conclusions for GOP prospects in the fall based on the outcome. But that won’t stop Republicans from bragging about taking over President Obama’s home district and adding the seat to their list of victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts.
We’re moving the race to Toss-Up, but Republicans appear to have the momentum.
Our bottom line in the House remains the same. Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.
Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans
Special Elections in italics
Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 14 D)
- AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
- FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
- HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D)*
- IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
- IL 14 (Foster, D)
- MI 1 (Open; Stupak, D)
- MI 7 (Schauer, D)
- NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
- NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
- NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
- NV 3 (Titus, D)
- PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
- PA 12 (Open; Murtha, D)
- TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
- WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)
Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 9 D)
- AL 2 (Bright, D)
- AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D)
- FL 8 (Grayson, D)
- ID 1 (Minnick, D)
- IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D)
- KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
- MS 1 (Childers, D)
- VA 2 (Nye, D)
- VA 5 (Perriello, D)
Lean Republican (3 R, 7 D)
- CA 3 (Lungren, R)
- CO 4 (Markey, D)
- FL 25 (Open; M. Diaz-Balart, R)
- LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
- MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
- NM 2 (Teague, D)
- NY 29 (Open; Massa, D)
- OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
- OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
- WA 8 (Reichert, R)
Republican Favored (5 R, 1 D)
- CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
- NE 2 (Terry, R)
- OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
- PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
- PA 15 (Dent, R)
- TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D)
Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 3 D)
- ND A-L (Pomeroy, D)
- SC 5 (Spratt, D)
- WV 1 (Mollohan, D)
Lean Democratic (1 R, 16 D)
- AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
- AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
- DE -AL (Open; Castle, R)
- IN 9 (Hill, D)
- IA 3 (Boswell, D)
- MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D)
- MO 4 (Skelton, D)
- NJ 3 (Adler, D)
- NM 1 (Heinrich, D)
- NY 1 (Bishop, D)
- NY 19 (Hall, D)
- OH 16 (Boccieri, D)
- OH 18 (Space, D)
- PA 4 (Altmire, D)
- PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)
- VA 9 (Boucher, D)
- WI 7 (Obey, D)
Democrat Favored (1 R, 18 D)
- CA 11 (McNerney, D)
- CO 3 (Salazar, D)
- CT 5 (Murphy, D)
- FL 22 (Klein, D)
- IL 11 (Halvorson, D)
- IN 2 (Donnelly, D)
- LA 2 (Cao, R)
- NY 13 (McMahon, D)
- NY 20 (Murphy, D)
- NY 23 (Owens, D)
- NC 8 (Kissell, D)
- OH 13 (Sutton, D)
- PA 3 (Dahlkemper, D)
- PA 8 (Murphy, D)
- PA 10 (Carney, D)
- PA 17 (Holden, D)
- SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)
- TX 17 (Edwards, D)
- WI 8 (Kagen, D)
Republican seats: 11
Democratic seats: 68