But the road doesn't necessarily get easier for Democrats. Critz was pro-life, pro-gun, and opposed the health care reform bill that many vulnerable Democratic incumbents supported. Critz and Burns will face off again in November, but we're moving the race to Lean Democratic.
Our bottom line in the House remains the same. Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.
Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans
Special Elections in italics
Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 12 D)
- AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
- FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
- IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
- IL 14 (Foster, D)
- MI 1 (Open; Stupak, D)
- MI 7 (Schauer, D)
- NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
- NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
- NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
- NV 3 (Titus, D)
- PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
- TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
- WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)
Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 9 D)
- AL 2 (Bright, D)
- AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D)
- FL 8 (Grayson, D)
- ID 1 (Minnick, D)
- IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D)
- KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
- MS 1 (Childers, D)
- VA 2 (Nye, D)
- VA 5 (Perriello, D)
Lean Republican (3 R, 8 D)
- CA 3 (Lungren, R)
- CO 4 (Markey, D)
- FL 25 (Open; M. Diaz-Balart, R)
- HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D)
- LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
- MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
- NM 2 (Teague, D)
- NY 29 (Open; Massa, D)
- OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
- OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
- WA 8 (Reichert, R)
Republican Favored (5 R, 1 D)
- CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
- NE 2 (Terry, R)
- OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
- PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
- PA 15 (Dent, R)
- TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D)
Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 3 D)
- ND A-L (Pomeroy, D)
- SC 5 (Spratt, D)
- WV 1 (Mollohan, D)
Lean Democratic (1 R, 17 D)
- AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
- AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
- DE -AL (Open; Castle, R)
- IN 9 (Hill, D)
- IA 3 (Boswell, D)
- MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D)
- MO 4 (Skelton, D)
- NJ 3 (Adler, D)
- NM 1 (Heinrich, D)
- NY 1 (Bishop, D)
- NY 19 (Hall, D)
- OH 16 (Boccieri, D)
- OH 18 (Space, D)
- PA 4 (Altmire, D)
- PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)
- PA 12 (Critz, D) #
- VA 9 (Boucher, D)
- WI 7 (Open; Obey, D)
Democrat Favored (1 R, 18 D)
- CA 11 (McNerney, D)
- CO 3 (Salazar, D)
- CT 5 (Murphy, D)
- FL 22 (Klein, D)
- IL 11 (Halvorson, D)
- IN 2 (Donnelly, D)
- LA 2 (Cao, R)
- NY 13 (McMahon, D)
- NY 20 (Murphy, D)
- NY 23 (Owens, D)
- NC 8 (Kissell, D)
- OH 13 (Sutton, D)
- PA 3 (Dahlkemper, D)
- PA 8 (Murphy, D)
- PA 10 (Carney, D)
- PA 17 (Holden, D)
- SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)
- TX 17 (Edwards, D)
- WI 8 (Kagen, D)
Republican seats: 11
Democratic seats: 68