It’s Not DiMaggio for Williams, But It’s Time for a Trade

By Stuart Rothenberg

It’s true that I’m not, and have never been, a general manager of a Major League Baseball team. Those guys make much more money than I do, and these days you have to be under 35 to be hired for one of those jobs.

But I have a trade that is just screaming to be made, and I’d like to put it on the table right now.

I propose that the Republicans send Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee to the Democrats in return for Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson. No Members to be named later. No future draft picks exchanged. Just an old-fashioned one-for-one deal. Rocky Colavito for Harvey Kuenn.

Let’s get totally real about what’s going on here. Chafee is a Democrat, and Nelson is a Republican. They just find themselves trapped in the wrong parties. It’s like one of those “Freaky Friday” movies.

If you check the stats, you’ll find the two Senators have remarkably similar Congressional Quarterly party unity and presidential support ratings, as well as similar numbers from major liberal, conservative, business and labor interest groups. In 2003 and 2004, with Republican President Bush in the White House, Democrat Nelson had higher presidential support ratings than did Republican Chafee.

Put Nelson in the GOP and his pro-business and conservative ratings will rise. Chafee as a Democrat would see his labor and liberal ratings increase.

Chafee, of course, was the only Republican Senator to vote against confirming Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) voted for Alito. So did Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) and everyone else. For Republicans, this was a litmus test vote.

Nelson was one of only four Democrats to vote to approve Alito, but he was the first to do so, and he did so more enthusiastically than the others. Face it, Nelson was going to vote for Alito if he had been the only Democrat to do so. Of course, that wouldn’t bother him. He is Bush’s favorite Democrat.

A quick check of some other high-profile votes also shows Nelson and Chafee are in the wrong parties.

Chafee voted for extending the assault weapons ban for 10 years, against a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage, against criminalizing harm to a fetus in an attack on its mother, and against extending middle-class tax breaks. Nelson was on the opposite side on each vote.

Politically, the trade might well be in Chafee’s interest. His vote against Alito will be another nightmare for his political strategists and a gift for his primary opponent, Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey (R).

Given the symbolism of the vote and the hot-button issue (at least for rank-and-file Republicans) of judges, Chafee’s vote against confirmation is an engraved invitation for GOP primary voters to cast their ballots for the mayor.

And if you are at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Chafee’s Alito vote has to give you indigestion, since you are in the awkward position of having to spend substantial funds to save Chafee even though you have plenty of other races that need your cash. The committee has already run two TV spots attacking Laffey, and it will probably have to do more in its effort to save Chafee in the primary.

For Nelson, his chance to vote for Alito was a gift. While he is a clear favorite for re-election in November, his vote for confirmation is another high-profile example of his political “independence,” of his assertion that he isn’t a knee-jerk Democrat.

Three Republicans are vying to take on Nelson. Pete Ricketts, a wealthy businessman, probably is the strongest potential challenger. He has already put almost $1 million into the race, is articulate and energetic, and has hired a strong campaign team.

But Ricketts’ biggest advantage is his party label, and that advantage is diluted dramatically by Nelson’s ability to portray himself as an ally of the president. And his vote for Alito is further evidence that he will support Bush when he is right.

While a one-for-one trade is reasonable, Democrats might demand something more. After all, while both Nelson and Chafee are up for re-election this year, and both have competitive races, Nelson is in far better shape.

Getting Nelson would solidify the GOP’s control of the Senate in November. That might mean the NRSC would need to offer the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee cash to even out the deal. Or Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle (R).

Thirty years ago, Chafee and Nelson wouldn’t stand out nearly as much as they do today. There were plenty of GOP moderates and a slew of moderate and conservative Democrats. But now, Chafee and Nelson stick out like sore thumbs in the Senate. I say trade ’em.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on February 6, 2006. Copyright 2006 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Candidates Battle for Cash in House Open Seats

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Some of the biggest battles in the fight for the House this year will be in open seats, vacated by members running for higher office or retiring. With the power of incumbency, open seats often provide better opportunities for takeover. And now that year-end Federal Election Commission reports are past due, we can get a glimpse at how the candidates are faring financially in these extremely competitive seats.

Colorado 7. GOP Cong. Bob Beauprez was first elected in 2002 in this newly-drawn, suburban Denver district, in the closest race of that cycle. Now, Beauprez is running for governor, leaving Republicans with a difficult seat to hold. John Kerry defeated President Bush 51%-48% in the 7th District in 2004.

Rick O’Donnell (R), the likely GOP nominee, raised $652,000 last year and finished December with $517,068 in the bank. He will face either former state Sen. Ed Perlmutter or former state representative Peggy Lamm (D) in the general election. Perlmutter showed $401,061 on hand at the end of the year compared to Lamm’s $139,370.

Iowa 1. Republicans are defending this seat, because Cong. Jim Nussle (R) is also running for governor. The seat itself leans Democratic (Kerry won 53%-46% in 2004), but Nussle always proved to be a difficult target.

The Democratic nominee will likely be either former Iowa Trial Lawyers Association president Bruce Braley ($289,324 in the bank through the end of the year) or Greater Dubuque Development Corporation director Rick Dickinson ($118,451 on hand through December 31). 2004 nominee Bill Gluba is also in the race, but he only had $28,046 through the fourth quarter.

State Rep. Bill Dix is setting the pace on the Republican side, raising almost $380,000 and finished the year with $256,901. Businessman Mike Whalen raised about $270,000 and chipped in $66,000 of his own money, but his spending left him with $84,304 in the bank. And former state party chairman Brian Kennedy finished December with $164,105 on hand after raising $285,091.

Ohio 6. Cong. Ted Strickland (D) is running for governor, leaving the Democrats with a seat of their own to hold. President Bush won the district narrowly 50%-49% in 2004, but because of Gov. Bob Taft’s (R) abysmal job ratings, the Ohio landscape favors the Democrats.

State Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) raised over $200,000 last year, dumped in another $257,000 of his own money and finished December with a considerable $436,674 in the bank. His likely opponent, state House Speaker Pro Tem Chuck Blasdel (R) showed $296,614 on hand after raising over $370,327. A January 11-12 Cooper & Secrest Associates poll for the Wilson campaign showed the Democrat leading 42%-24%.

Arizona 8. Cong. Jim Kolbe (R) is retiring leaving a headache for Republicans. Kolbe announced in November that he was leaving at the end of his term, so the candidate field is still very fluid. President Bush won the 8th District 53%-46% in 2004, but the seat is very competitive.

State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) raised almost a quarter million dollars and had $242,123 in the bank at the end of the fourth quarter. Her Democratic opponent, former television news anchor Patty Weiss, just announced her candidacy. On the GOP side, former state Rep. Randy Graf (who lost in a primary to Kolbe in 2004) is in the race, but showed only $25,861 on hand on December 31. State Rep. Steve Huffman (R) just announced his candidacy, still more candidates are possibilities, and some Republicans are still hoping U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona will get in.

Illinois 6. Long-time Cong. Henry Hyde (R) is retiring in a suburban Chicago district that President Bush carried only 53%-46% in 2004. State Sen. Peter Roskam will be the GOP nominee and he is off to a strong start, raising over $1 million and finishing the year with $835,113 in the bank.

But neighboring Cong. Rahm Emanuel (D), who is also chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin (D) are putting all their chips behind Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth (D). Duckworth only started raising money late in the year ($105,073 in the bank on December 31), but should have a very strong first quarter. Duckworth faces 2004 nominee Christine Cegelis ($39,363 on hand on 12/31) and Wheaton College professor Lindy Scott ($79,033 on hand on 12/31) in the Democratic primary.

Overall, Democrats have at least an even shot at winning four out of these five races, with Republicans currently holding a clear advantage in Illinois.

This piece first appeared on Town Hall on February 2, 2006.

Jindal Aims to Make Blanco Another Katrina Casualty

By Stuart Rothenberg

As political junkies across the country focus on November’s increasingly important midterm elections, friends and political allies of Louisiana 1st district Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) have something else on their mind: the Bayou State’s 2007 race for governor.

Incumbent Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) has already announced that she will run for re-election for the state’s top job, and Republicans are acting like sharks that smell blood in the water.

Blanco received mediocre reviews at best for her (and the state’s) response before, during and after Hurricane Katrina, with critics complaining that she didn’t show strength or leadership skills during the crisis.

Jindal isn’t talking publicly about 2007 just yet. “Now’s not the time for politics. Bobby’s 100 percent focused on rebuilding our state,” says Jindal’s chief of staff, Timmy Teepell.

But the Congressman’s friends are already talking about a statewide run, and they are signaling to other Republicans who might be interested in running for governor that Jindal will be a candidate.

Jindal, whose parents came to the United States from India, finished first in the 2003 open primary for governor and was widely viewed as the frontrunner for the runoff. But in the campaign’s final days, Blanco, a two-term lieutenant governor with conservative views on abortion and gun control, overtook him, winning by 4 points, 52 percent to 48 percent.

A year later, at the age of 33, Jindal was elected to Congress in a New Orleans-area district vacated by Republican Rep. David Vitter, who now serves in the Senate.

Jindal, a Rhodes Scholar with degrees from Brown University and Oxford University, previously served as secretary of Louisiana’s Department of Health and Hospitals, executive director of the National Bipartisan Commission on the Future of Medicare, president of the University of Louisiana System and assistant secretary for planning and evaluation of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

In person, Jindal is as impressive as his résumé. In more than a dozen years interviewing candidates for Congress, he ranks with a handful of the most impressive challengers and open-seat candidates whom I have interviewed. That list also includes now-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) and unsuccessful Senate hopeful Jack Ryan (R-Ill.).

Blanco apparently got a break recently when Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (D) — the son of former New Orleans Mayor Moon Landrieu (D) and the brother of Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) — announced that he would challenge New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin later this year. While that does not completely remove Landrieu from the 2007 governor’s race, it makes his entry into that contest unlikely.

Still, Blanco at this point is badly damaged goods, and everyone knows it. And that could bring Democratic hopefuls into next year’s race, particularly since Louisiana holds an open primary, in which all candidates, regardless of party, run in a single contest. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes cast, the top two votegetters, regardless of party, meet in a runoff.

Jindal looks like the logical GOP choice to run again, given his narrow loss in 2003 and his preference for serving in an executive capacity rather than in a legislative office. His service in Congress adds to his already ample credentials for higher political office, and it gives him a political base from which to launch a statewide bid.

Supporters of the Congressman note that Vitter won the 2004 Senate race in part because the party rallied behind him early and helped keep other GOP hopefuls out of that race. But with the governorship so clearly up for grabs, other Republicans may jump in as well.

For Democrats, the question is whether they will stick with an incumbent governor who is now much weaker than she was a year ago, or find a more appealing alternative. Many Republicans would rather see Blanco as the Democrats’ choice.

Demographics explain part of why the Republicans are so optimistic. Hundreds of thousands of people have left the state, many of them from Democratic Orleans Parish. While estimates of population change are incomplete and should be treated gingerly — and polls in the state should be regarded with great skepticism given the obvious difficulty of drawing a reliable sample that accurately reflects the state’s electorate next November — few doubt that the exodus from the state has hurt the Democratic Party.

Unlike most of its neighbors in the South, Louisiana has resisted a full-scale move into the Republican column. The combination of working-class whites and African Americans have kept Democrats competitive in the state. But the population shifts following Katrina may well lead to a fundamental partisan shift, and the 2007 governor’s race could be the first test of whether that is happening.

It could also put Jindal on the national stage at a time when Republicans are looking for new — and very different — faces.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on February 2, 2006. Copyright 2006 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Will Mood for Change Benefit Primary Challengers?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Despite of the difficulty of knocking off incumbent Members of Congress in primaries, a handful of potentially serious Congressional primaries are taking shape this cycle. Will the overall political environment, which favors change over the status quo, benefit these insurgents?

The two high-profile primary challenges to Senators are on tap in Rhode Island and Hawaii.

Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey’s challenge to Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) has received plenty of publicity so far, and TV ads supporting each man already have aired. In Hawaii, Rep. Ed Case’s announcement earlier this month that he will take on Sen. Daniel Akaka, 81, in the Democratic primary raised more than a few eyebrows in the nation’s capital. Despite some similarities, the two races are based on different assumptions.

Laffey’s challenge to Chafee is based partly on ideology, partly on style. The mayor is attempting to play the role of the conservative, populist outsider to Chafee’s establishment insider. Given Congress’ standing in national polls and the negative press that many Members have been receiving, Laffey’s style could resonate with voters.

Case’s primary challenge, on the other hand, is generational. He has talked about the need to “phase in” new representation so Hawaii doesn’t lose all of its seniority in the Senate all at once.

“I think it is a matter of transition, and it’s a matter of how Hawaii can best be represented throughout the next generation,” said the 53-year-old Democratic House Member.

While versions of the age argument have been tried before — by Democrats against then-Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-S.C.) in 1996 and by Republicans against Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) this cycle — the argument doesn’t have a long history of success. Still, if voters truly want change, the argument might have particular resonance this year.

In the meantime, at least three House incumbents face potentially difficult races for renomination: Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio) and Joe Schwarz (R-Mich.). And that number could grow if other developing races take shape.

Schwarz’s opponent, Tim Walberg, ran in the 2004 open-seat primary and finished third. Walberg is mounting an ideological primary against Schwarz, a relatively moderate Republican who won a crowded primary two years ago when multiple conservative candidates divided the conservative vote.

Cuellar’s primary opponent, former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, is trying to win the Democratic nomination from the man who took away his seat two years ago. Democratic supporters of Rodriguez’s challenge, including former Rep. Martin Frost, a one-time chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, complain that Cuellar votes too much like a Republican.

Schmidt’s primary challenger is former Rep. Bob McEwen, a former six-term Member from Ohio. Redistricting following the 1990 Census forced McEwen to run against another Republican Congressman, and while McEwen won that primary, he was defeated by Ted Strickland (D) in the general election. More recently, McEwen sought the GOP’s 2nd district nomination in the special election triggered when then-Rep. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) was named U.S. trade representative. McEwen finished second, right behind Schmidt, in that special primary.

Why is McEwen challenging Schmidt, who has served in Congress since only last August?

“Bob wants to return to Congress. He wants the district to have the conservative representation in Washington that it once had. And he can put his six terms of seniority in the House to good use,” McEwen communications director Michael Harlow told me recently.

But few insiders believe McEwen’s challenge is really about ideology. Nor is it even about Schmidt’s electability, even though the former Congressman’s campaign packet contains information that questions her ability to retain the seat. McEwen appears to be running mainly because he enjoyed being in Congress.

The list does not end there. Other troublesome primaries are possible for incumbents.

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) faces a developing primary challenge from state Rep. Chuck Espy, nephew of former Rep. Mike Espy (D-Miss.). Assemblyman Juan Vargas (D) is taking on Rep. Bob Filner (D-Calif.) in a district that, according to the Congressman’s Web site, is “53 percent Latino.” And in Georgia, DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson is taking on Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D).

Texas Rep. Tom DeLay (R), currently under indictment, also faces primary challengers, though his vulnerability in a primary is uncertain. And former Rep. Pete McCloskey (R) hopes his primary challenge to Rep. Richard Pombo (Calif.) develops into a credible one.

Upstate New York Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert often faces a challenge for renomination from the right, and with New York’s late primary, in September, a troublesome contest is still possible.

What does history tell us about primary challenges when voters are in a “time for a change” mood? In 1994, the last time a huge wave swept through Congress, not a single sitting U.S. Senator was denied renomination. In the House, four incumbents were defeated — Democratic Reps. Craig Washington (Texas), Lucien Blackwell (Pa.) and Mike Synar (Okla.) and Republican Rep. David Levy (N.Y.).

This column first appeared in Roll Call on January 30, 2006. Copyright 2006 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.