Where the Race for the White House Stands Right Now

By Stuart Rothenberg

This column is not a prediction. Predictions aren’t worth much. Instead, readers should view what follows as an assessment — an assessment that leads to a relatively obvious conclusion, but one that is not set in stone.

With just about four months to go until Election Day, the national political landscape continues to favor Democrats strongly. Indeed, almost every bit of national- level data reflects problems for the Republicans.

Voters give President Bush a failing grade. And to a large extent because of that, they have a better opinion of the Democratic Party than they do of the GOP. Not surprisingly then, those same voters see Democrats as better able to handle almost every issue, including taxes and fiscal responsibility, on which the Republicans have traditionally had a significant advantage.

For months, even for years, the national news has been bad, so it’s not surprising that voters want change. All of the numbers strongly suggest that Americans see the Democratic Party as the better vehicle for bringing about change than the Republican Party.

In spite of some better news from Iraq, most Americans think the war was a mistake and the administration’s performance inept. Perhaps it’s a sign of Republicans’ problems that most GOP officeholders and strategists would rather talk about the war than about domestic issues.

The economy has sputtered along for a while, but the most recent news has been much worse. Increased unemployment, continuing problems in the nation’s financial sector and much higher fuel costs and commodity prices (and therefore inflationary pressures) have further eroded consumer confidence and pulled the rug out from under stocks.

There is simply no reason to believe that the news will improve measurably between now and late October, which means that there is no reason to believe that the American public’s underlying mood will turn up dramatically.

Financially, Democrats are awash in cash, while Republicans will have far fewer resources. This is true at the presidential level now that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has opted out of public funding, but also at the House and Senate campaign levels.

Enthusiasm is greater among Democrats than Republicans, and Democrats have gained in registration in many states and Congressional districts.

Given all of this evidence, Obama has a far easier road to the White House than Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.). The Illinois Senator merely has to take advantage of the political current, while McCain must swim against it, persuading voters to support him in spite of his party and Bush’s performance.

Finally, Obama is a great orator, while McCain is not. The Arizonan has a wonderful story to tell and is a true American hero, but he is not nearly as charismatic as Obama. And he is 71 years old, which does not present an ideal visual contrast with the Democrat.

This isn’t a tough climb for McCain — it’s a veritable Mount Everest.

And yet, it’s simply too soon to declare the presidential race over. Especially since it has barely begun.

Unlike many other kinds of elections, the presidential race is to a large extent about the candidates. McCain’s own image is much better than his party’s, and for all of Obama’s strengths and appeal, the Democrat isn’t without liabilities and weaknesses.

Obama’s race will limit his appeal to some voters, who will have greater difficulty relating to him than they would a white candidate. And even if you strongly disagree that he is “arrogant” or “elitist,” as some of his opponents have said, it’s certainly true that he lacks the warmth that some politicians possess.

Questions about Obama’s experience and readiness for the presidency still need to be answered. And, of course, his positions on issues (to the extent that he is forced to discuss them in detail) could limit some of his appeal.

The Electoral College could help McCain, if the national numbers stay close. While, even in a close race, he may lose a couple of states that Bush won in 2000 (Colorado and Virginia certainly are possibilities), Michigan seems less than secure in the Democratic column.

Ultimately, McCain’s chances depend on voters being uncertain about Obama’s readiness for the job and uncomfortable with him as president. And, of course, McCain must deflect Democratic efforts to portray him merely as a successor to Bush and the traditional Republican agenda.

Obviously, the 2008 race for the White House could blow open between now and Election Day. But even if that doesn’t happen, the underlying fundamentals make an Obama victory more likely. Still it isn’t inevitable, and that’s more than enough reason to continue monitoring the race closely.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on July 7, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Pennsylvania 6: It’s Not That Simple

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Recent polling numbers released by Democratic candidate Bob Roggio in Pennsylvania’s 6th district aren’t that unreasonable or that different from his opponent’s most recent poll. But the corresponding analysis of the race to come dramatically underestimates Roggio’s uphill battle against GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach.

A June 21-24 Benenson Strategy Group poll for the retired businessman showed him trailing the Congressman, 49 percent to 32 percent. Those numbers are similar to Gerlach’s advantage, 56 percent to 30 percent, in his own poll, conducted May 20-21 by Public Opinion Strategies.

Democrats touted Gerlach’s job rating in their poll (39 percent excellent or good compared with 47 percent fair or poor) as a sign of the incumbent’s vulnerability and noted the absence of a job rating number in the Republican’s memo. Gerlach did include his personal rating, 58 percent favorable/20 percent unfavorable, in relation to Roggio’s 4 percent favorable/1 percent unfavorable, while identification numbers were omitted from the Democratic poll.

According to Roggio’s news release, “the race for PA-6 is just beginning,” playing time as an asset in the race. But that’s precisely the challenger’s problem.

Gerlach was first elected in 2002, with 51 percent, over attorney Dan Wofford (D). Wofford entered the race with higher-than-usual name identification for a challenger, because his father is a former U.S. Senator, and he was able to use his connections to outspend Gerlach $1.4 million to $1.1 million.

Two years later, attorney and former Ed Rendell campaign aide Lois Murphy (D) spent $1.9 million in her losing challenge. Gerlach prevailed that cycle, 51 percent to 49 percent, and spent $2.2 million in the process.

Murphy never really stopped running and jumped into a rematch in 2006. She ended up outspending the incumbent (more than $4 million to almost $3.5 million), but losing again narrowly, 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent. The candidate spending doesn’t count more than $3 million from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and almost $3.9 million from the National Republican Congressional Committee. EMILY’s List chipped in another $166,000 on Murphy’s behalf. But it wasn’t enough.

The Roggio campaign has boiled the race down to a simple task.

“As soon as voters are introduced to Bob Roggio through a biographical paragraph, Gerlach’s lead vanishes and Bob Roggio assumes a 7% lead,” according to the campaign’s release.

Well, that should be easy. At least the 500 likely general election voters sampled in the poll know who Roggio is, but he’s going to have a hard time introducing himself to the larger electorate in one of the most expensive media markets in the country.

The Democrat raised $205,200 through April 2 and had $168,259 in the bank. That’s not a lot of dough considering a reasonable ad buy for one week in the Philadelphia market will be at least half a million dollars. Television costs about $600 per point there, according to Media Strategies and Research.

But even if Roggio is able to put together some money to get out his message, there is no guarantee it will resonate. Murphy and the Democrats spent at least $9 million over a three-year stretch, but Gerlach was still re-elected twice. And undoubtedly, Gerlach will have something to say about Roggio as well and will attempt to define his Democratic opponent. The Congressman raised more than $1.5 million through April 2, with almost $715,000 on hand.

Gerlach will never be safe in a district that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won by 3 points in the 2004 White House election. And the Congressman could lose if a dramatic Democratic wave develops in the region because of Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) efforts to appeal to suburban voters. But Gerlach won’t lose simply because people got to know Roggio.


This item first appeared on RollCall.com on July 3, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Washington 8: Democratic Groups Rush to Burner’s Aid After Fire

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Darcy Burner, the Democratic challenger to Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.), lost her house in a fire last week, but thanks to her 5-year old son, she is glad to be alive.

Democratic groups are now using the fire to urge donors to help Burner and her campaign.

The fire broke out early Tuesday morning, July 1, and Burner’s son woke her and her husband up to alert them to the blaze, giving them just enough time to escape unharmed. But according to a local fire official, the house is considered a “total loss.”

Burner is in the middle of a competitive race against Reichert in Washington’s 8th district. She lost narrowly to Reichert in 2006 and her rematch is considered one of the Democrats’ best opportunities to defeat an incumbent this cycle.

Through the first quarter of the year, Burner was narrowly outpacing the incumbent in campaign contributions. She raised almost $1,397,000 through March, compared to $1,371,000 raised by Reichert, and she had more cash on hand than the Congressman.

After her narrow loss in 2006 and because of her stances against the Iraq War and the FISA bill, Burner has become a darling of the Democratic net roots. Now, in the midst of tragedy, the net roots are trying to come to her aid even more.

“Though she had what I know is a fantastic fundraising quarter, Darcy’s not going to be doing call-time for some time, so let’s help her out,” Democratic blogger Matt Stoller wrote on the Open Left Web site, soliciting campaign contributions for Burner through Act Blue.

“The tragedy has obviously upended her life, and she’s struggling right now to put all the pieces back together,” Markos Moulitsas wrote in a front page post on Daily Kos, prompting readers to give through Act Blue as well. “She is family.”

Since Burner is a candidate for Congress, giving her family personal support may be complicated. But according to one source familiar with campaign finance law, as long as the aid isn’t given for the purpose of influencing a federal election, it should be OK.

“For those who would like to do something to express their support, let me suggest making a contribution to your local humane society or animal shelter in memory of [the family cat] Charlotte [who died in the blaze], or to the Washington State Council of Firefighters Benevolent Fund,” Burner said in a statement.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on July 2, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprtined with permission.

Pennsylvania 10: Ex-Specter Aide Fundraising for Carney

By Nathan L. Gonzales

A former chief of staff to Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) is hosting a fundraiser for vulnerable freshman Rep. Christopher Carney (D-Pa.).

David Urban served as the Republican Senator’s top aide for five years before joining the American Continental Group in 2002. The $1,000-a-head fundraising breakfast for Carney is scheduled for July 16 at the lobbying firm’s offices in downtown Washington, D.C.

“While I’m a Republican, I like to think I support solid candidates,” Urban said in an interview. “[Carney] is a conservative Democrat ... who deserves to be given another shot.”

Urban has contributed to a long list of Republican candidates over the years, including Sens. Gordon Smith (Ore.), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Texas), Orrin Hatch (Utah), Bob Corker (Tenn.), Mel Martinez (Fla.), Susan Collins (Maine) and John Cornyn (Texas), as well as ex-Sen. Rich Santorum (Pa.) and, of course, his former boss. He has also contributed to numerous GOP House Members.

Urban has contributed to a few Democrats as well, including a multiple contributions to Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) from 2002 to 2005. He also gave $2,000 in 2003 to Pennsylvania 13th district candidate Joe Torsella, a personal friend, who lost the Democratic primary to now-Rep. Allyson Schwartz.

This cycle, Urban contributed to 4th district Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), even though he gave to his opponent, now-former Rep. Melissa Hart (R) in their race against each other last cycle.

Urban has also contributed to Republican Tom Manion, who is running against Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) in Pennsylvania’s 8th district. “I try to help the team when I can,” Urban said.

Carney is one of the most vulnerable Democratic Members of Congress. His northeast Pennsylvania 10th district went for President Bush by 20 points in 2004, and GOP Rep. Don Sherwood’s personal scandal was a major factor in Carney’s victory.

It’s also a district where Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) ran very well in the Pennsylvania presidential primary and where presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) may not be quite the asset that he is elsewhere. The Congressman faces wealthy businessman Chris Hackett (R) this fall.

Roll Call reporter Shira Toeplitz contributed to this report.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on July 1, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.