Friday, October 13, 2006

Kansas 2: Dueling Polls, Differing Perspectives

Two recent Democratic polls show Cong. Jim Ryun (R) in a surprisingly tight contest in the 2nd District of Kansas. But Republicans are countering with numbers of their own.

2004 nominee Nancy Boyda (D) is taking on the congressman, hoping to avenge her 56%-41% loss to Ryun last cycle. An October 2-6 survey by Infomark Research for Boyda showed her trailing by a narrow 43%-40%. And an October 6-8 Cooper & Secrest poll for the state Democratic Party had Ryun's margin at 45%-41%.

In contrast, an October 3 Wilson Research Strategies survey for Ryun, showed the congressman leading by a significant 50%-33%, and a third party candidate pulling almost 5%.

In a district President Bush carried by twenty points over Senator John Kerry (59%-39%) in 2004, hovering at 50% isn't great news for the incumbent. But Boyda still has a significant task ahead of her to stretch her showing last cycle to 50%+1 in the conservative district.

Based on numbers going into the final three weeks of the campaign, it looks like Ryun is ahead by about nine points.