Is It Time for Democrats to Shove Giannoulias Out?

By Stuart Rothenberg

The clock is starting to run out on Democrats who would like Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias out of his state’s Senate race in favor of a more electable candidate.

Given the sensitivity of such a scenario, it’s no wonder that Democrats don’t want to be anywhere near a discussion of a switch.

But these kinds of pragmatic and heavily orchestrated decisions aren’t unknown — just think back to Democratic Sen. Robert Torricelli’s very late exit from the 2002 New Jersey Senate race, and the subsequent nomination and election of his archrival, Democrat Frank Lautenberg.

Indeed, Illinois Democrats succeeded earlier this year in forcing the party’s nominee for lieutenant governor, pawnbroker Scott Lee Cohen, off the ballot. (He is now back on the ballot, running for governor as an Independent.)

Of course, last-minute exits to avoid defeat are still the exception. Sens. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) and John Sununu (R-N.H.) fought hard down to the wire even though they looked to be in sad shape for many months, and however weak Sens. Harry Reid (Nev.) and Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) are, it isn’t clear that other Democrats in their states would have an easier time hanging on to their seats in November.

While Giannoulias still runs competitively against Republican Rep. Mark Kirk in hypothetical general election ballot tests — he’s even in his own recent poll but trailing by 3 to 8 points in other polls conducted over the past six weeks — the Democrat’s personal ratings are terrible, and even Democrats will acknowledge privately that their nominee carries enough baggage to sink a battleship.

A May 3-5 survey of likely voters by Research 2000 for the liberal website Daily Kos found the treasurer’s name ID at 38 percent favorable/45 percent unfavorable, while Rasmussen Reports showed his ID at 42 percent favorable/48 percent unfavorable.

The recent coverage of the collapse of the Giannoulias family’s Broadway Bank earned the Senate hopeful a rash of negative publicity, and he can count on the bank’s practices (including loans to a number of people you wouldn’t want to associate with) being raised daily by his opponent or the media until November.

The 34-year-old state treasurer has an explanation for everything, of course, but even Democrats complain about the stink emanating from the bank.

Democrats who worry about Giannoulias’ viability in the fall have a problem, though. Since the nominee isn’t running far behind Kirk in trial heats, it won’t be easy to persuade him to leave quietly. And if there is something Democratic insiders don’t need, it’s a messy food fight with a nominee they are trying to dump (especially after Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania went public that White House insiders had offered him a job to get him to pass up a primary challenge to party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter).

Political observers note that the White House didn’t get heavily involved in the primary even though Giannoulias was known to be burdened with plenty of political baggage, so there certainly is some reason to wonder whether the Illinois-heavy White House will continue to keep its distance from the general election, even if Giannoulias’ defeat starts to look inevitable.

Still, with the White House crawling with Illinois political folks, it’s hard to believe that party leaders and strategists at the highest level are going to sit back quietly and allow the president’s former Senate seat to fall in Kirk’s lap.

For years, political operatives at the National Republican Congressional Committee used to say that then-Chairman Tom Reynolds (N.Y.) “handled” all New York races, just as folks at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last cycle joked that Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) were in charge of Maryland races.

By that logic, Illinois is very much in the White House’s lap, though Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) also has some responsibility.

Unlike some states, the Democratic bench in Illinois is so deep that it shouldn’t be hard to find a more formidable replacement for Giannoulias. Senate primary runner-up David Hoffman, a former prosecutor and Chicago inspector general, would be an obvious choice, but other Illinois famous names come to mind as well.

Politically astute Democrats now think that the chances that Giannoulias will “step aside” have increased with the federal takeover of Broadway Bank. And if Democratic control of the Senate starts to look at all at risk, behind-the-scenes efforts to come up with a stronger Senate nominee in Illinois might increase.

Even in a bad year for Democrats nationally, it seems odd that Republican prospects in the Illinois Senate race look so good.

Yes, the GOP got the candidate it wanted in Kirk, and the president’s numbers in the state have slipped from where they were. But Democrats would be in better shape if they didn’t have a nominee who was such damaged goods.

Illinois folks in and around the White House surely know that, and that’s why pressure is building for them to do something soon. If they don’t and Democrats lose the seat, it will be hard not to place a chunk of the blame at the front door of the White House.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on May 18, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Why Illinois Senate Is a Tossup but N.H. Isn’t

By Stuart Rothenberg

Not long ago, my friends over at the Cook Political Report moved the Illinois Senate race from Tossup to Leans Republican, a significant development in my eyes.

Shortly after that development, my newsletter moved the New Hampshire Senate race from Tossup to Narrow Advantage for the incumbent party (my version of Leans Republican). But I did not move Illinois out of my Tossup category.

Why?

It’s probably important to note, right off the bat, that I am not on all that different a page from the Cook folks. Right now, I think the Republicans are positioned to win both Senate races. So it’s really a question of how comfortable each handicapper is about moving a particular race.

Despite what Granite State voters have done over the past two cycles, New Hampshire remains a competitive state. Recent Democratic gains in the state present an exaggerated picture of the state’s partisan bent, so it won’t be surprising if Republicans stage a comeback later this year.

I’ve met three of the four credible Republican candidates in the race — former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, millionaire businessman Bill Binnie and conservative Ovide Lamontagne, the GOP’s unsuccessful gubernatorial nominee in 1996 — and all three should have considerable appeal in the primary and in the fall.

Lamontagne is often portrayed by Democrats as a knuckle-dragging right-winger, but he is personable, articulate and easy to like. Though he clearly has an ideological strategy, Lamontagne has not yet emerged as “the” conservative in the race, in part because Ayotte, who is every bit as personable as Lamontagne, is running as a conservative as well.

Stylistically, however, Ayotte should also appeal to moderates. In this respect, she resembles retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R), who is clearly in her corner.

Binnie, who is pro-abortion-rights, is running as an outsider and painting Ayotte as the insider in the race. The wealthy businessman is investing heavily in his own bid, and as one Granite State Republican commented, “He doesn’t lack for self-esteem.”

Binnie portrays the race as between himself and Ayotte, but he too quickly dismisses Jim Bender, another businessman with personal resources, whose more moderate positioning surely is taking votes from Binnie.

Ayotte and Binnie, I expect, would be difficult opponents for Rep. Paul Hodes, the presumptive Democratic Senate nominee. So might Bender, though I haven’t met him yet.

Hodes is poised, confident and well-spoken, but he seems to think that he can make former President George W. Bush a major issue this year and that his own accomplishments in the House will demonstrate his independence and draw a favorable contrast with his eventual GOP opponent.

In fact, I think that Hodes is far too optimistic about his ability to dictate what the 2010 Senate race will be about.

National political currents (including intensity) are likely to favor Republicans, and as long as the GOP nominee isn’t hemorrhaging support after the primary, Hodes, who voted for the health care bill, cap-and-trade and the stimulus, will be on the defensive when the fall arrives. An improvement in the national mood would, of course, improve the Congressman’s prospects.

Recent polling suggests that Hodes is trailing a number of the GOP candidates (particularly Ayotte), and the overall dynamic — including strong Republican bids to win both of the state’s House seats — makes it more likely than not that Hodes will come up short in November.

Illinois Democratic Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias isn’t in much better shape for November than Hodes. But he has one advantage: his state.

Illinois has an electorate that is much more favorable than New Hampshire for any Democrat, and while Giannoulias has plenty of headaches — particularly the failure of his family’s bank — I am less certain that Illinois voters won’t eventually return to their traditional partisan voting patterns before November.

Recent polling in the Land of Lincoln shows Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, a moderate who surely is his party’s ideal candidate for this seat, ahead in general election trial heats. But neither candidate is well-known statewide, even after their primary victories, so the race seems extremely fluid.

Moving Illinois to Leans Republican isn’t unreasonable. As I’ve already noted, I like Kirk’s current position in the horse race against Giannoulias. But I think it wise to see how that race unfolds and to look for more evidence that Illinois voters are making up their minds about both candidates, as well as about the president’s performance.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on May 6, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

IL14: Hultgren Even With Foster in Own Poll

By Nathan L. Gonzales

State Sen. Randy Hultgren (R) is in a statistical dead heat with Cong. Bill Foster (D), according to a new poll for the Republican’s campaign. A May 3-4 survey of 300 likely voters in Illinois 14th District by the Tarrance Group showed Hultgren with 45% and Foster 44% in a general election match-up.

Republicans believe other numbers in the poll further demonstrate Foster’s vulnerability. The congressman’s job rating was 40% approve/41% disapprove and personal rating 40% favorable/33% unfavorable. Hultgren’s personal rating was 22% favorable/4% unfavorable.

In addition, 28% of respondents said Foster deserves reelection while 55% said a new person should be given a chance. And Republicans led on the generic ballot 47%-36%.

Overall, Republicans believe this seat never should have gotten away. Foster won the seat in a March 2008 special election after former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) resigned. Foster defeated Republican Jim Oberweis in both the special and general elections that year. This year, Hultgren defeated attorney Ethan Hastert, son of the former Speaker, in the February 2 GOP primary.

The 14th District is competitive. Barack Obama carried the district with 55% in 2008, but George W. Bush carried it easily in both 2004 (55%) and 2000 (54%). We currently have the race rated as a Pure Toss-Up.