New Print Edition: NM1 & Washington Senate

The new November 4, 2005 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. Here is a sample from the current issue.

New Mexico 1: Repeat Defender
By Nathan L. Gonzales

First District Cong. Heather Wilson (R) is no stranger to Democratic target lists. Since her initial election back in 1998, Democrats have consistently targeted the congresswoman, and her Albuquerque-area seat, for takeover, in large part because of its Democratic performance.

But each cycle, Wilson prevails. With or without a Green Party candidate on the ballot and often without any help from the top of the ticket, she has won reelection four times. But Democrats are hoping the fifth time is a charm.

In the last few weeks, state Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) announced she would take on the incumbent. Democrats believe Madrid is one of their strongest candidates in the country and that she is the strongest challenger Wilson has ever faced.

Wilson has heard it before, but never in the sort of environment she could face next year. President George W. Bush’s shrinking job approval numbers are a concern for Republicans nationwide, but specifically for incumbents like Wilson who sit in Democratic-tilting districts.

The Republican has proven to be a tough campaigner, but she faces her toughest fight yet. More...

Washington Senate: Crosscurrent

In a cycle where the tide is turning against the Republican Party, one candidate is trying to swim upstream. Former insurance executive Mike McGavick (R) is taking on Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) in Washington, as she seeks to solidify herself and win reelection to a second term.

The Evergreen State has a recent history of ousting incumbents. Back in 1980, Republican Slade Gorton defeated Sen. Warren Magnuson (D). Two decades later, Cantwell knocked off Gorton, albeit by a slim margin. Now, Cantwell is hoping to avoid the same fate as her predecessor.

In a state that’s trending more blue than purple, McGavick as a tough task ahead of him. But after Democrats narrowly and controversially won the governor’s race last cycle, GOPers are hoping to tap into any voter dissatisfaction with the outcome and current governor. The rest of the story...

Virginia & New Jersey Go Down to the Wire
Stuart Rothenberg

Early on, Republican Jerry Kilgore seemed to have the edge in this year’s Virginia’s gubernatorial race, while Senator Jon Corzine (D) seemed headed for a decisive win in New Jersey.

But as the two races head to the wire, Kilgore’s advantage seems to have evaporated, and Corzine’s position has grown more uncertain. Read more...

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