Friday, October 31, 2008

Democrats Try to Use McCain to Saddle GOP Candidates

By Nathan L. Gonzales

President Bush has been a mainstay in Democratic television ads for the last three years, as Democrats try to use him as an anchor to bring down Republican incumbents and candidates.

Earlier this year, GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) was thought to be an asset to Republican candidates downballot. But apparently Democrats believe McCain could be a liability in some districts, as he is starting to appear in some negative advertising.

“1980. Pac-Man is the new fad and Frank Wolf goes to Congress,” an announcer says in a television ad for Wolf’s Democratic challenger, Judy Feder, in Northern Virginia’s 10th district. “Twenty eight years later, Frank Wolf supports the McCain plan to tax your health care benefits.”

“Wolf even supports risking your Social Security in the stock market. And a constitutional amendment that criminalizes abortion, just like John McCain,” the ad continues. “Judy Feder will work with Barack Obama to fix our economy and fight for affordable health care.”

Two years ago, Wolf defeated Feder, 57 percent to 41 percent. Feder spent an impressive $1.5 million last cycle, compared with $1.8 million for Wolf. This cycle, each candidate raised about $1.9 million through Oct. 15 and both are advertising in the expensive Washington, D.C., media market.

Bush won Virginia’s 10th by 11 points in 2004, but Obama s doing very well in the region.



Earlier this cycle, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee used McCain and Bush against Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.).

The television ad used similar sound bites from all three men, talking about how the fundamentals of the economy are strong. McCain makes an appearance, but the last photo shows Shays hand in hand with Bush.

Bush lost Connecticut’s 4th district by 6 points in 2004, while Shays simultaneously won re-election by 4 points. But the Democratic wave is much higher this year.

McCain is losing the district by 20 points, according to an Oct. 15-18 University of Connecticut poll for Hearst Newspapers, and by 22 points, according to an Oct. 13-14 SurveyUSA poll for Roll Call.

It’s a stunning turnaround from earlier. McCain was precisely the presidential candidate that Republicans thought would help Members such as Shays and Wolf in their more moderate districts.



This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 29, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Republicans Turn to ‘No Blank Check’ in Final Days

By Nathan L. Gonzales

With Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) White House prospects dimming and just days to go before the elections, Republicans are turning to a “no blank check” strategy in an effort to minimize their losses in the House and Senate.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has been hammering the "no blank check" theme in TV ads in North Carolina, where Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) is in a tough fight with state Sen. Kay Hagan (D).

“Who’s the Senate race really about? Hagan or Dole? Neither one,” the announcer says in one spot. “It’s about liberals in Washington. They want complete control of the government. They spent $10 million dollars on a hoax,” with a picture of Hagan on the screen.

“The left wants 60 votes in the Senate. To push radical cuts to our military. Massive tax increases. Liberal judges. And expand welfare,” the ad continues. “Kay Hagan, if she wins, liberals get a blank check.”



This week, the NRSC continued the same themes in Louisiana, with an ad attempting to label Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) as corrupt, liberal and someone who has voted with presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) more than 80 percent of the time.

“Don’t give Washington liberals complete control. Don’t give them a blank check,” says to the NRSC spot, which hinges on the notion that Louisiana is one state where Obama won’t do well on Election Day.



The “no blank check” strategy is also creeping into House races. Republican businessman Chris Hackett sounded the theme in an ad that began airing Monday. Hackett is running against freshman Rep. Christopher Carney (D) in Pennsylvania’s 10th district.

“What if Washington becomes controlled at all levels by big-government Democrats? It could happen this election. One party dominance can be very dangerous,” the ad begins.

Hackett’s ad then features Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), the Keystone State’s popular senior Senator, talking straight to the camera.

“I am very concerned about one-party rule in Washington,” Specter says in the spot. “That’s why it’s so important to elect Chris Hackett to Congress. With Chris Hackett, we’ll have a check against massive Democratic control. And that’s vital for our country.”



In the Minnesota Senate race, Democrats are making the opposite case.

“We don’t have a lot of time to turn our economy around. And it’s going to take a new president and 60 Senators willing to stand up for change. Now, any single Republican can block the progress we need,” Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) said in a TV ad done for the Democratic nominee. “Al Franken could very well be that 60th vote. I hope you’ll vote for Al Franken. Let’s end the gridlock and get our country moving.”



This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 29, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Stu Talks Bill Clinton, Blank Checks, and the RNC's new radio ads on CNN.com

RNC, GOP tweak tactics to lure conservative Democrats

By Stuart Rothenberg and Nathan L. Gonzales

(CNN) -- While many in the media are single-mindedly focused on vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin's outfits, Republican efforts to brand Sen. Barack Obama a socialist and the chances that Democrats will net nine Senate seats (giving them 60 seats in the next Senate), some other interesting things are going on -- things that are being missed.

One of those is an unreported major Republican National Committee radio buy in eight key states: Colorado, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia.

The buy is interesting because it includes some states expected to be in McCain's column by this time (Montana, North Carolina and West Virginia, for example), but also because of the message of the 60-second spot: gun control. Read the rest of the story on CNN.com.

Choosing Winners, Losers: Did NRCC Make Right Picks?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Like everyone who pays attention to House races, I was more than a little interested to see where the National Republican Congressional Committee would use its limited resources on independent expenditures this cycle.

Now, with Election Day fast approaching and Republicans likely to lose more than two dozen House seats — and quite possibly more than 30 seats — it’s possible to evaluate the NRCC’s decisions.

At least 19 of the 29 districts in which the NRCC advertised seem like good calls. Five others are debatable, while five are not justified, in my view.

The five Democratic seats targeted by the NRCC — Paul Kanjorski’s (Pa.), Nick Lampson’s (Texas), Carol Shea-Porter’s (N.H.), Steve Kagen’s (Wis.) and retiring Rep. Bud Cramer’s (Ala.) — all seem like reasonable choices.

Kanjorski’s ethics problems and poll numbers put him on the list. Lampson’s district is rock-solid Republican and favors challenger Pete Olson (R). Even Democrats will tell you Shea-Porter’s win last time was a fluke, and Cramer’s retirement opens up a generally conservative seat that’s an obvious GOP target. Kagen’s district also leans Republican.

All 11 open Republican seats on the list are obvious places for the NRCC to play. Normally, it shouldn’t have to spend money to defend an at-large seat in Wyoming or Alabama’s 2nd district. But given the national landscape and race-specific factors, nobody ought to question the NRCC’s decisions in those districts.

NRCC funding surely is warranted in three GOP-held districts that have proved to be competitive in the past, in Washington’s 8th district (Rep. Dave Reichert), Ohio’s 1st district (Rep. Steve Chabot) and Nevada’s 3rd (Rep. Jon Porter).

Reichert’s Seattle-area district went for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in the 2004 presidential election, and Reichert has won two squeakers. Chabot’s district went only narrowly for President Bush in 2004, and the Democratic nominee this time, state Rep. Steve Driehaus, looks formidable, especially given the considerable African-American population in the district. Porter’s district was drawn to be a tossup, but a surge in Democratic registration has changed that. All three Republicans have campaigned hard.

In five other districts with Republican incumbents, it’s less clear that the NRCC’s help was justified.

Rep. Thelma Drake’s Virginia district gave Bush 58 percent four years ago, not quite the 60 percent that Rep. Lee Terry’s Nebraska district did and only a point more than Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart’s Florida district did. Two other Republicans, Michigan Rep. Tim Walberg and Pennsylvania Rep. Phil English, sit in districts that Bush carried with 54 percent and 53 percent, respectively — good margins but hardly overwhelming.

As incumbents, all five of these Republicans had the opportunity to solidify themselves for re-election — both by working hard to communicate with their constituents and by building up huge war chests. Terry raised the least of the bunch, at $1.4 million through Oct. 15. English raised the most, $2.2 million.

Changing demographics and the Democratic strength at the top of the ticket added to Drake’s woes, justifying NRCC action, in my view. The competitiveness of English’s district and Walberg’s also make it reasonable for the NRCC to expend valuable resources there, though as a candidate for the NRCC chairmanship this cycle, English surely should not be in the vulnerable position he now finds himself.

That leaves Terry, who has again run a lackluster campaign that took his re-election for granted, and Diaz-Balart, who represents a Republican district in the very expensive Miami media market. Given their situations, I’d argue that the NRCC should not have spent money in either race.

Five GOP incumbents who have benefited from a total of more than $2.2 million in NRCC spending also should have been cut loose immediately and told to fend for themselves: Reps. Randy Kuhl (New York’s 29th district), Bill Sali (Idaho’s 1st), Jean Schmidt (Ohio’s 2nd), Mark Souder (Indiana’s 3rd) and Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado’s 4th).

Each of the districts represented by these incumbents is reliably Republican under normal circumstances, and their vulnerability, even in this political environment, reflects their individual weaknesses. In 2004, Bush carried Sali’s district with 69 percent, Schmidt’s with 64 percent, Souder’s with 68 percent and Musgrave’s with 58 percent. Kuhl’s district was the closest of the bunch, with Bush winning it with 56 percent.

It says a great deal about Sali, Schmidt and Souder that they ran so far behind Bush. Not all conservative candidates in those districts necessarily would run so poorly. These three simply have limited appeal, and the NRCC shouldn’t have to spend considerable resources every two years to rescue them in districts that they should retain easily.

Finally, there is no way that the NRCC should have considered rushing into Michele Bachmann’s race after the Minnesota Congresswoman shoved her foot in her mouth on MSNBC recently. The conservative legislator turned a comfortable re-election into an uphill race by taking Chris Matthews’ obvious bait. She has no one to blame but herself, and she has been sitting on more than $1 million that she could have spent to support her candidacy.

Some conservatives had a cow when the NRCC’s IE unit decided to pull the plug on Musgrave and refused to spend its limited funds on Bachmann. Sorry, but the NRCC’s job isn’t to elect conservatives. It’s to elect Republicans.

While damaged GOP incumbents such as Sali, Schmidt and Souder continue to drain the NRCC’s cash in solid Republican districts, strong GOP open-seat candidates such as Darren White (New Mexico’s 1st), Erik Paulsen (Minnesota’s 3rd), Leonard Lance (New Jersey’s 7th), Chris Lee (New York’s 26th) and Steve Stivers (Ohio’s 15th) are fighting for their political lives.

If radio talk-show host Michael Reagan and Family Research Council President Tony Perkins want to spend their time productively, they shouldn’t be beating up the NRCC for its decisions not to waste money on incumbents who made themselves vulnerable. They should be hunting for personable, smart, politically savvy conservatives with campaign skills and thoughtful new ideas.


This column first appeared on RollCall.com on October 28, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

2008 House Ratings

Here are our latest House ratings. Our latest estimate is a Democratic gain 27-33 seats, up from a Democratic gain of 25-30 seats.

# = Moved benefiting Democrats
* = Moved benefiting Republicans
^ = Newly added

PURE TOSS-UP (10 R, 3 D)
  • AL 2 (Open; Everett, R) #
  • AL 5 (Open; Cramer, D)
  • FL 21 (L. Diaz-Balart, R)
  • KY 2 (Open; Lewis, R) #
  • LA 4 (Open; McCrery, R) #
  • LA 6 (Cazayoux, D)
  • MI 7 (Walberg, R)
  • NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R)
  • NJ 7 (Open; Ferguson, R)
  • OH 1 (Chabot, R)
  • PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)
  • VA 2 (Drake, R) #
  • WA 8 (Reichert, R)
TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (7 R, 0 D)
  • CA 4 (Open; Doolittle, R) #
  • FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart, R)
  • IL 10 (Kirk, R)
  • MD 1 (Open; Gilchrest, R)
  • MO 9 (Open; Hulshof, R)
  • NE 2 (Terry, R) #
  • NY 26 (Open; Reynolds, R)
TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (12 R, 3 D)
  • CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
  • CT 4 (Shays, R) #
  • FL 8 (Keller, R)
  • GA 8 (Marshall, D)
  • ID 1 (Sali, R) #
  • KS 2 (Boyda, D)
  • MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
  • MN 6 (Bachmann, R) #
  • NV 3 (Porter, R)
  • NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
  • NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)
  • NM1 (Open; Wilson, R)
  • NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
  • OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R) #
  • PA 3 (English, R)
LEAN REPUBLICAN (2 R, 1 D)
  • OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
  • SC 1 (Brown, R) #
  • TX 22 (Lampson, D)
LEAN DEMOCRATIC (3 R, 3 D)
  • CA 11 (McNerney, D) #
  • IL 11 (Open; Weller, R) #
  • MI 9 (Knollenberg, R) #
  • NC 8 (Hayes, R) #
  • PA 10 (Carney, D)
  • WI 8 (Kagen, D)
REPUBLICAN FAVORED (8 R, 1 D)
  • AZ 3 (Shadegg, R)
  • CA 3 (Lungren, R)
  • CA 46 (Rohrabacher, R)
  • FL 13 (Buchanan, R)
  • FL 16 (Mahoney, D)
  • IL 6 (Roskam, R)
  • MO 6 (Graves, R) *
  • WV 2 (Capito, R)
  • WY A-L (Open; Cubin, R)
DEMOCRAT FAVORED (7 R, 3 D)
  • AK A-L (Young, R)
  • AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R)
  • AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
  • AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
  • FL 24 (Feeney, R)
  • NY 13 (Open; Fossella, R)
  • NY 25 (Open; Walsh, R)
  • OH 16 (Open; Regula, R)
  • PA 4 (Altmire, D) #
  • VA 11 (Open; Davis, R) #
Dropped :
KY 3 (Yarmuth, D) #,
MS 1 (Childers, D) #

Three hot states to watch on Election Night

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Stuart Rothenberg

(CNN) -- With the presidential campaign and more than 75 competitive races for the House and Senate, keeping track of it all on Election Day can be a bit overwhelming. But focusing on three states (North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida) will provide a window through the November 4 election chaos. Read the whole story on CNN.com.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Alaska Senate: Begich Now Favored

2008 Senate Ratings

Here are our latest Senate ratings. We are increasing our estimate to a Democratic gain of 7-9 seats, up from 6-9 seats.

# = Moved benefiting Democrats
* = Moved benefiting Republicans

Likely Takeover (4 R, 0 D)
  • Sununu (R-NH)
  • CO Open (Allard, R)
  • NM Open (Domenici, R)
  • VA Open (Warner, R)
Lean Takeover (3 R, 0 D)
  • Dole (R-NC)
  • Smith (R-OR)
  • Stevens (R-AK) #
Toss-Up (1 R, 0 D)
  • Coleman (R-MN)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 1 D)
  • Chambliss (R-GA)
  • Landrieu (D-LA)
  • McConnell (R-KY)
  • Wicker (R-MS)
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)
  • Collins (R-ME)
Currently Safe (11 R, 11 D)
  • ID Open (Craig, R)
  • NE Open (Hagel, R)
  • Alexander (R-TN)
  • Barrasso (R-WY)
  • Cochran (R-MS)
  • Cornyn (R-TX)
  • Enzi (R-WY)
  • Graham (R-SC)
  • Inhofe (R-OK)
  • Roberts (R-KS)
  • Sessions (R-AL)
  • Baucus (D-MT)
  • Biden (D-DE)
  • Durbin (D-IL)
  • Harkin (D-IA)
  • Johnson (D-SD)
  • Kerry (D-MA)
  • Lautenberg (D-NJ)
  • Levin (D-MI)
  • Pryor (D-AR)
  • Reed (D-RI)
  • Rockefeller (D-WV)

Georgia 13: Democrats Sound the Alarm

By Nathan L. Gonzales

“Emergency Funds Needed for Rep. David Scott,” blared the subject line of the Oct. 21 e-mail about Georgia’s 13th district race.

It’s a strange juxtaposition in a national environment that strongly favors the Democrats and a Democratic Congressman who represents a district that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won in the 2004 White House election with more than 60 percent of the vote.

But publicly and privately, Democrats are trying to focus attention on the Atlanta-area Congressional district.

Scott, an African-American former state legislator, was first elected in 2002 with 60 percent. He ran unopposed in 2004 and took 69 percent in 2006. Scott, who is the brother-in-law of baseball legend Hank Aaron, represents a district that is approximately 41 percent black and about 8 percent Hispanic. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is expected to do very well in the district.

According to new Democratic polling for Scott’s campaign, Obama is winning the district 56 percent to 35 percent. But in the Congressional ballot test, the Congressman is only ahead narrowly, 43 percent to 38 percent, over physician Deborah Honeycutt (R). The poll was conducted Oct. 13-14 by Cooper and Secrest Associates.

Honeycutt, who is also African-American, ran against Scott two years ago and lost by more than 30 points. But the e-mail for Scott sounded the alarm anyway, pointing to the recent poll numbers and Honeycutt’s fundraising.

It is true that Honeycutt had raised a jaw-dropping $4.3 million this cycle, through Sept. 30. But the vast majority of that money was spent raising the money through direct mail, and only a small percentage was netted for the campaign. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, roughly one-tenth of Honeycutt’s money has been spent on television, and virtually all of that has been on cable.

Scott raised $966,000 through the end of September. In 2006, Honeycutt and Scott each spent about $1.3 million.

“There is too much at stake to risk complacency here,” the e-mail said. Separate polling confirms that Scott is underperforming in the district, but the e-mail and Democratic push for attention looks to be less about a legitimate fear of a Republican takeover and more about lighting a fire under a lazy Congressman. Scott started airing an attack ad on Friday going after Honeycutt for supporting a “fair tax.”

It is simply unlikely that a Democratic seat like this would flip in the current political environment. And Honeycutt’s fundraising numbers are more bark than bite. Republicans are not optimistic about their chances in Georgia’s 13th and don’t have the money to throw at scenarios.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 24, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Monday, October 27, 2008

It’s Getting Bleaker for McCain, Worse for Hill Republicans

By Stuart Rothenberg

While major media outlets are hesitant to pronounce the presidential race over for fear of being harassed by Republicans and conservatives, there isn’t much doubt at this late date that it is over. Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) will be elected president in less than two weeks.

Previously undecided voters have now decided that Obama isn’t as risky a choice as they once thought, and that has changed the contest. Talk that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has been closing over the past week is simply not demonstrated in public and private polling. In fact, unreleased polls in a number of statewide and Congressional races show that McCain has weakened significantly over the past two weeks.

Obama is now over the crucial 50 percent mark in many credible national surveys, and public and private polling in key states from Wisconsin and Florida to Virginia and Colorado all show the same thing: The Democrat is now considerably over 270 electoral votes, and McCain is struggling to hold on to normally Republican states such as Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri.

Republicans, conservatives and some in the media (who don’t want the competitive race story to end) hang their hopes onto a poll here or there that shows a tight race. Those who want to believe Rasmussen’s national poll showing the presidential race at 4 points or the most recent Hotline survey showing Obama at only 47 percent can certainly do so, but the race is not that tight.

Two recent presidential polls in Florida, one by Fox News/Rasmussen and the other by SurveyUSA, showed McCain ahead in that state within the margin of error. They are more than balanced out in my own mind by a just as recent Republican poll in Florida that has not been released publicly and that showed Obama over the 50 percent mark and beating McCain by 8 points in the state.

But couldn’t things change in the final 10 days? Theoretically, yes. But the chance is so small as to be insignificant.

In what increasingly is looking like a historic election, Democrats continue to be headed for substantial victories in the House and Senate, though not everything has gone their way in the past week.

The revelation that Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) has had multiple affairs, including at least one during his 2006 challenge to then-Rep. Mark Foley (R), has even Democrats uttering obscenities about the Congressman. GOP polling shows Mahoney is likely to be defeated by his Republican challenger, Tom Rooney.

In Senate races, there is remarkable agreement on the part of unbiased observers that Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens’ (R) chances of being re-elected have spiked after a trial in which the prosecution looked less than perfectly adept. But that race still hangs on the jury’s decision.

Still, Democrats are headed for huge gains in the Senate, and continuing competitive races in Kentucky, Mississippi and Georgia demonstrate how strongly the political landscape is tilted in their favor. Those three contests, plus races in North Carolina, Alaska and Minnesota, should determine whether Democrats reach the 60 mark in next year’s Senate.

So far, a five-seat Democratic pickup looks like a lock, with Democratic wins expected in Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire and Oregon. A sweep of the other GOP Senate seats in play would give Democrats a double-digit gain. That’s certainly not the most likely scenario, but it is not impossible, because in a number of recent “wave” elections (including 2006), almost all of the close Senate races have been won by one party.

Obama’s weakness in Kentucky probably enhances Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R) chances of surviving, while the Democratic presidential nominee’s strength in Georgia, combined with Sen. Saxby Chambliss’ (R) late advertising and his delay in attacking Democratic challenger Jim Martin, puts the first-term Republican Senator at greater risk. The possibility of a runoff in the Georgia race if no candidate gets an absolute majority of total votes cast probably improves Chambliss’ ultimate prospects.

Democratic House prospects are almost as good, and after winning 30 seats in 2006, that’s noteworthy.

When I wrote a few weeks ago that Democratic gains in the 20-30 seat range were reasonable, some Democrats told me that I was way too far out on the limb, and one Democratic Congressman telephoned me to suggest that I had gotten carried away about Democratic chances.

But Democratic gains in that range still look very reasonable, even though Republicans now seem likely to knock off a few incumbent Democrats, including Mahoney, Rep Nick Lampson (Texas) and possibly Rep. Paul Kanjorski (Pa.).

GOP polling over the past couple of weeks shows McCain’s numbers worsening in many places, creating a problem for Republican strategists who hoped that the top of the ticket would be a considerable asset. Indeed, in some places, McCain has gone from an asset to a liability.

Democratic House gains of 27 to 33 seats now looks likely. This is the kind of wave election when even second- and third-tier candidates pull off upsets, and I’d expect that to happen this year. It would be only a guess to pick those winners, so all I can say is that a couple of long-shot Democratic upsets are likely as the party’s wave crashes ashore in 12 days.

Republican Congressional candidates will hope to stop the bleeding and improve their prospects in the campaign’s remaining days. But Democrats still have the momentum.


This column
first appeared in Roll Call on October 23, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

New Print Edition: Senate and House Outlook

The October 24, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks (even more frequently as Election Day approaches). Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

The latest edition is a special 16-page issue with our new Senate and House ratings, the most recent polling, and the latest analysis of the most competitive races across the country.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Bitter Primaries Lead to Cross-Party Endorsements

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Within the broad scope of presidential elections, party defections aren’t all that uncommon. But this cycle, across-the-aisle endorsements have become quite the fad in Congressional contests, with three Republicans supporting Democratic candidates in a trio of high-profile races.

In each case, the endorsements receive plenty of media attention, locally or nationally depending on the race, but their ultimate impact on races remains to be seen.

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell’s endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is the most recent and public example. Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-Conn.) endorsed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president and spoke at the Republican National Convention. Former Iowa Rep. Jim Leach (R) endorsed Obama and spoke at the Democrats’ convention in Denver.

At the Congressional level, bitter primaries seem to be precursor to an elected official from one party crossing over to support a candidate in the other.

On Monday, Republican state Sen. Harri Anne Smith crossed party lines to endorse Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) in Alabama’s extremely competitive open-seat 2nd district race. Smith received 21 percent in the initial six-way primary, but lost the July 15 runoff to state Rep. Jay Love, 53 percent to 47 percent. It’s clear that the tone of the runoff played into her decision.

“I also know firsthand what it’s like to be a victim of his opponent’s reckless and untrue attacks, so I wanted to stand up for [Bright] today,” Smith said, as part of the Democrat’s truck tour. Of course, Bright reciprocated by saying nice things about the woman he almost faced in the general election.

At the end of September, former Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-Mich.) endorsed Democrat Mark Schauer in Michigan’s 7th district. Schauer is challenging Rep. Tim Walberg (R), who defeated Schwarz in the 2006 GOP primary. Schwarz was sort of an accidental Congressman, after winning the 2004 GOP primary with 28 percent when multiple candidates (including Walberg) divided the conservative vote.

Needless to say, Schwarz was bitter after he lost renomination, and specifically mad at the conservative anti-tax group the Club for Growth for their involvement in the race. Schwarz considered a comeback this cycle and was even courted by the Democrats to switch parties, but he ultimately decided against it. But when the club started attacking Schauer, Schwarz got off the sidelines.

“That to me is the straw that broke the camel’s back,” Schwarz told the Associated Press. “I object to political dabblers who stand for nothing other than to create havoc and dabble in a Congressional race where they truly have no interest.”

In Maryland’s 1st district, another moderate Republican lost the primary and is now supporting the Democratic nominee. Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (Md.) garnered just 33 percent in his three-way GOP primary in February, losing to state Sen. Andy Harris.

The primary was personal, and in April Gilchrest’s longtime campaign aide joined the staff of the Democratic nominee, Queen Anne County State’s Attorney Frank Kratovil. So it was no surprise when Gilchrest himself announced his support for Kratovil.

Last year, before the Congressman lost the GOP nomination, Kratovil criticized Gilchrest for a failure of leadership and his lack of effectiveness and results. Now, the Congressman is appearing in a campaign ad for the Democrat.

“I see a man who can carry on with any tiny legacy I might have,” Gilchrest said at a press conference. “I see a man with an independent voice, someone of competence, integrity and courage. Most important, I see a man I trust. That is more important to me than party labels.”

It’s amazing how party labels seem to fade away when voters reject you.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 22, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Late-breaking House races shift political playing field

By Stuart Rothenberg

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Every election cycle, a handful of races not taken very seriously early on become truly competitive contests, and this year is no exception.

Every candidate, of course, has a scenario. But most of those scenarios -- and most of those candidates -- evaporate well before October.

In the case of the candidates below, their scenarios are now supported by both polling and successful fundraising. Given the national political environment, it isn't surprising that most of the late surprises are in Republican-held seats. Read the rest of the story on CNN.com.

Nathan Talks Politics on CNN.com

Louisiana Senate: Worth Watching or Over and Done?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Like just about everyone else, I’m more than a little confused about the Louisiana Senate race.

According to OnMessage Inc., which conducts polling for Republican challenger John Kennedy in the Louisiana race, the two-term Democrat-turned-Republican state treasurer trails incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) by the mid-single digits, and the race has been closing. The pollster’s most recent three-day roll is just 5 points — 47 percent to 42 percent.

That assessment of the race is light years from where Landrieu’s campaign, national Democratic insiders and even plenty of veteran Louisiana campaign watchers see the contest, and a Mellman Group poll (also based on tracking) for the Democrat shows Landrieu holding a huge advantage — 52 percent to 34 percent — over Kennedy.

The difference between a 5-point race and an almost 20-point contest isn’t merely one of degree. While both polls show Landrieu ahead and more likely to win, the GOP survey shows a competitive contest, while the Democratic poll shows a race that already is over.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee decided to pull out of Louisiana until it saw recent OnMessage tracking and decided that Kennedy still had a chance to overtake the Democrat. The NRSC bought another week of TV in the state on the basis of the OnMessage track.

Last week, both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the NRSC had TV buys up in the state. Apparently Democratic strategists weren’t entirely confident that the race was over, even with a 15- to 20-point lead.

What else do we know about the polls and the race?

While Democratic insiders argue that the Louisiana race has moved little in weeks, OnMessage tracking found Landrieu holding solid double-digit leads from Sept. 23 to Oct. 2, after which the race closed noticeably. Indeed, on Sept. 23, the GOP poll found Landrieu ahead by 20 points, 53 percent to 33 percent, over Kennedy.

On Sept. 27, Rasmussen Reports, an automated poll about which I have often expressed great reservations, showed Landrieu ahead of Kennedy by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent. On Sept. 28, OnMessage’s three-day roll found virtually the same margin, with Landrieu holding a 14-point lead, 52 percent to 38 percent.

What else do we know?

We also know that the Democratic and Republican pollsters disagree about what percentage of the total electorate will be black. Blacks constitute a few more percentage points of the total sample in the Mellman Group poll than in the OnMessage surveys. This alone would explain some of the difference in the ballot test, since race is a strong predictor of the vote in Louisiana.

We know that the Mellman survey shows Landrieu with a much higher favorable/unfavorable net rating than the OnMessage survey, and that Kennedy’s favorable/unfavorable rating is good in the GOP poll and terrible in the Democratic survey.

What we have, then, is a consistent set of differences in the two surveys. Democratic tracking has McCain’s lead more narrow, Landrieu’s lead much bigger, Landrieu’s identification ratio much more positive and Kennedy’s ID ratio much more negative than does the Republican track.

If experience counts — and this year, at least in the presidential campaigns, it hasn’t — then we have to consider the pollsters.

Landrieu is notoriously fickle when it comes to consultants, so it should come as no surprise that she has switched pollsters. After using Al Quinlan last cycle, she has switched to Mark Mellman, a highly regarded political veteran whom I met many years ago when he was still a graduate student at Yale. In 1996, Mellman worked in Louisiana for an outside group that ran an anti-David Duke campaign when Duke was one of the Republican candidates running against Landrieu in an open-seat Senate contest.

Kennedy’s media and polling are being done by OnMessage, a relatively new combination of Brad Todd, Curt Anderson and Wes Anderson, whom I have also known for many years and hold in high regard. What’s most notable about the team is that it handled polling for both of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal’s (R) races, including his win last November.

The 2007 gubernatorial election was the first statewide contest in Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina, and there is no doubt that the storm caused some residents to leave the state, changing Louisiana’s demographics and altering its electoral arithmetic. OnMessage’s involvement in that race and the firm’s accurate polling for Jindal cannot be ignored.

I’m not certain where the Senate race really is now, but I’m pretty certain that Landrieu is not going to win by 20 or 18 or even 15 points. I’d be surprised if she won by 10 points.

There is no doubt that she is currently ahead (both sides agree about that), and even some Democrats believe that the Senator will not get a lot of the undecided vote. My guess is that Landrieu will win with a final margin that is much closer to the margin now found in OnMessage tracking than in the Democratic polling.

As I write this, the NRSC is advertising in the state, while the DSCC has not extended its TV buy. Of course, it could decide to do so at any time.

Jindal, a wildly popular political figure in the state, so far hasn’t put his full weight behind Kennedy’s effort, and he has been politically averse in partisan races so far. But if the governor comes out strongly for Kennedy soon, he could affect the race’s dynamic.

Some observers no longer think this race is even worth watching. I’m not so sure. On election night, this contest may be closer than a number of races that those same people are watching breathlessly right now. And unlike many others, I have not ruled out a surprise.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on October 21, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Pennsylvania 11: Polling Differs on Kanjorski’s Prospects

By Nathan L. Gonzales

According to nonpartisan and Republican polls, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) is one of the most endangered incumbents in the country. But public Democratic polls tell an entirely different story.

A recent Oct. 8-12 Franklin & Marshall College survey showed Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) leading the Congressman 40 percent to 35 percent. That poll came on the heels of an Oct. 6-8 Research 2000 survey for the liberal Daily Kos Web site that showed Barletta with an advantage of 43 percent to 39 percent.

A third poll, conducted Oct. 2 by Susquehanna Polling and Research for Barletta’s campaign, also gave the Republican an edge of 47 percent to 39 percent.

But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released an Oct. 5-6 Grove Insight (D) poll showing Kanjorski ahead comfortably, outside the margin of error, 47 percent to 39 percent.

So what explains the dramatic discrepancy in the surveys? The difference could be in the partisan makeup of the samples.

Self-identified Republicans made up 34 percent of the sample in the Franklin & Marshall poll, 35 percent in the Research 2000 poll and 33 percent in Barletta’s polling. On the other hand, likely Republican voters constituted only 25 percent of the sample in the Grove survey done for the DCCC.

Self-identified Democrats made up 60 percent of the sample in the Franklin & Marshall poll, 48 percent in the Research 2000 poll and 58 percent in the Susquehanna survey, compared with 50 percent in the Grove Insight poll.

Another large difference was in the number of self-described independent or “other” voters tested in the polls. Those voters made up 26 percent of the sample in the DCCC poll, compared with 17 percent in the Research 2000 survey, 6 percent in the Franklin & Marshall survey and 8 percent in Barletta’s polling.

It’s unclear whether the lower Republican or higher independent sample explains Kanjorski’s advantage in the Democratic polling. It could be a combination of both. The lower Republican percentage could be depressing Barletta’s support, and Kanjorski could be getting a bump from the larger number of independent voters, who have been more likely to favor Democrats over the last three years.

The presidential ballot in these surveys complicate things a little further because Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) had a wide 20-point lead in Barletta’s survey and a 15-point advantage in the Grove survey. Research 2000 gave Obama just a 4-point edge, while Franklin & Marshall had his lead at 9 points.

Here is a chart with the polling numbers.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 20, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

2008 House Ratings

Here are our latest House ratings. Our latest estimate is a Democratic gain of 25-30 seats.

Any seats not listed are currently considered to be at limited risk for the incumbent party.

# = Moved benefiting Democrats
* = Moved benefiting Republicans
^ = Newly added

PURE TOSS-UP (8 R, 3 D)
  • AL 5 (Open; Cramer, D)
  • CT 4 (Shays, R)
  • FL 21 (L. Diaz-Balart, R)
  • LA 6 (Cazayoux, D)
  • MI 7 (Walberg, R)
  • NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R)
  • NJ 7 (Open; Ferguson, R)
  • OH 1 (Chabot, R)
  • OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)
  • PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)
  • WA 8 (Reichert, R) #
TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (10 R, 0 D)
  • AL 2 (Open; Everett, R)
  • FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart, R)
  • ID 1 (Sali, R) #
  • IL 10 (Kirk, R)
  • KY 2 (Open; Lewis, R)
  • LA 4 (Open; McCrery, R)
  • MD 1 (Open; Gilchrest, R)
  • MO 9 (Open; Hulshof, R)
  • NY 26 (Open; Reynolds, R)
  • VA 2 (Drake, R)
TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (11 R, 4 D)
  • CA 11 (McNerney, D)
  • CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
  • FL 8 (Keller, R)
  • GA 8 (Marshall, D)
  • IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)
  • KS 2 (Boyda, D)
  • MI 9 (Knollenberg, R)
  • MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
  • NV 3 (Porter, R) *
  • NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D) #
  • NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)
  • NM1 (Open; Wilson, R)
  • NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
  • NC 8 (Hayes, R)
  • PA 3 (English, R)
LEAN REPUBLICAN (4 R, 1 D)
  • CA 4 (Open; Doolittle, R)
  • MN 6 (Bachmann, R) #
  • MO 6 (Graves, R)
  • OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
  • TX 22 (Lampson, D)
LEAN DEMOCRATIC (1 R, 3 D)
  • PA 4 (Altmire, D)
  • PA 10 (Carney, D) #
  • VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)
  • WI 8 (Kagen, D)
REPUBLICAN FAVORED (9 R, 1 D)
  • AZ 3 (Shadegg, R)
  • CA 3 (Lungren, R) ^
  • CA 46 (Rohrabacher, R)
  • FL 13 (Buchanan, R)
  • FL 16 (Mahoney, D) *
  • IL 6 (Roskam, R)
  • NE 2 (Terry, R)
  • SC 1 (Brown, R) ^
  • WV 2 (Capito, R)
  • WY A-L (Open; Cubin, R)
DEMOCRAT FAVORED (6 R, 4 D)
  • AK A-L (Young, R)
  • AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R) #
  • AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
  • AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
  • FL 24 (Feeney, R) #
  • KY 3 (Yarmuth, D)
  • MS 1 (Childers, D)
  • NY 13 (Open; Fossella, R)
  • NY 25 (Open; Walsh, R)
  • OH 16 (Open; Regula, R) #
Dropped :
IN 9 (Hill, D) #,
OR 5 (Open; Hooley, D) #,
PA 6 (Gerlach, R) *

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Stu Talks Politics on CNN.com

GOP House candidates struggle against McCain drag

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Stuart Rothenberg

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Chris Shays of Connecticut, the last Republican in the House of Representatives from New England, is used to running against the partisan tide. But this year, the wave might be too high for the Republican congressman to overcome.

Shays is just one of many GOP candidates trying to win by outperforming Sen. John McCain's underwhelming performance in congressional districts nationwide. Read the rest of the story on CNN.com.

2008 Senate Ratings

Here are our latest Senate ratings. Our latest estimate is a Democratic gain of 6-9 seats.

# = Moved benefiting Democrats
* = Moved benefiting Republicans

Likely Takeover (4 R, 0 D)
  • Sununu (R-NH) #
  • CO Open (Allard, R) #
  • NM Open (Domenici, R)
  • VA Open (Warner, R)
Lean Takeover (3 R, 0 D)
  • Dole (R-NC)
  • Smith (R-OR)
  • Stevens (R-AK)
Toss-Up (1 R, 0 D)
  • Coleman (R-MN)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 1 D)
  • Chambliss (R-GA)
  • Landrieu (D-LA)
  • McConnell (R-KY)
  • Wicker (R-MS)
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)
  • Collins (R-ME)
Currently Safe (11 R, 11 D)
  • ID Open (Craig, R)
  • NE Open (Hagel, R)
  • Alexander (R-TN)
  • Barrasso (R-WY)
  • Cochran (R-MS)
  • Cornyn (R-TX)
  • Enzi (R-WY)
  • Graham (R-SC)
  • Inhofe (R-OK)
  • Roberts (R-KS)
  • Sessions (R-AL)
  • Baucus (D-MT)
  • Biden (D-DE)
  • Durbin (D-IL)
  • Harkin (D-IA)
  • Johnson (D-SD)
  • Kerry (D-MA)
  • Lautenberg (D-NJ)
  • Levin (D-MI)
  • Pryor (D-AR)
  • Reed (D-RI)
  • Rockefeller (D-WV)

2008 Presidential Battleground Ratings

Total Electoral Votes
(270 needed to win)

Obama - 235 (safe/likely) + 71 (lean) = 306
McCain - 140 (safe/likely) + 23 (lean) = 163
Toss-ups = 69

Toss-Ups

  • Florida (27)
  • Indiana (11)
  • Missouri (11)
  • Nevada (5)
  • North Carolina (15)
Lean McCain
  • Georgia (15)
  • Montana (3)
  • West Virginia (5)
Lean Obama
  • Colorado (9)
  • Minnesota (10)
  • New Hampshire (4)
  • New Mexico (5)
  • Ohio (20)
  • Virginia (13)
  • Wisconsin (10)
Safe/Likely McCain
  • Alabama (9)
  • Alaska (3)
  • Arizona (10)
  • Arkansas (6)
  • Idaho (4)
  • Kansas (6)
  • Kentucky (8)
  • Louisiana (9)
  • Mississippi (6)
  • Nebraska (5)
  • North Dakota (3)
  • Oklahoma (7)
  • South Carolina (8)
  • South Dakota (3)
  • Tennessee (11)
  • Texas (34)
  • Utah (5)
  • Wyoming (3)
Safe/Likely Obama
  • California (55)
  • Connecticut (7)
  • Delaware (3)
  • Hawaii (4)
  • Illinois (21)
  • Iowa (7)
  • Maine (4)
  • Maryland (10)
  • Massachusetts (12)
  • Michigan (17)
  • New Jersey (15)
  • New York (31)
  • Oregon (7)
  • Pennsylvania (21)
  • Rhode Island (4)
  • Vermont (3)
  • Washington (11)
  • D.C. (3)

Monday, October 20, 2008

Powell for Obama: Nothing More than a Real Yawner

By Stuart Rothenberg

With the amount of media coverage that retired General Colin Powell’s endorsement of Barack Obama received over the weekend, you might think that it was a game-changer. It wasn’t.

Powell remains an important and widely admired political figure, and he could have had some impact on the 2008 Presidential contest. But his endorsement wasn’t ever likely to be as crucial as some commentators said it was over the weekend, and the timing of his announcement made it even less important than it might have been.

If we’ve learned anything during the 2008 Presidential contest it ought to be that endorsements in high profile Presidential contests don’t matter very much. I cannot say that they don’t matter at all, but it’s pretty clear that they are of so marginal a value that they barely are worth noting.

Some people, I’m certain, still believe that the endorsements of Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg and John Edwards handed Obama the nomination, and nothing will dissuade them.

Bit if the endorsements of Governor Deval Patrick (D-Mass.) and Senators Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) and John Kerry (D-Mass.), couldn’t deliver the state to Obama in the 2008 Massachusetts Democratic Presidential primary, then no endorsement is crucial.

This year’s contest was so long and so heavily covered in the national media that voters had plenty of time to observe the candidates themselves and decide who they preferred. Chuck Norris’ endorsement of Mike Huckabee didn’t help him much even though some Republicans like the actor. That’s not the way people decide how to vote in Presidential elections.

But Powell could have had at least some impact on the race if he had endorsed in mid September, when McCain was running even or ahead of the Illinois Democrat and when voters still had great doubts about Obama’s experience, particularly in national security matters.

At that point, Powell could have lent his stature and credibility on foreign policy matters to Obama, praising the Senator’s judgment and values and validating Democratic assertions about him.

Once the financial crisis hit in late September and early October, the public’s focus changed and the two candidates were evaluated in different terms. For Obama , that focus automatically was a plus, both because he has more credibility and experience on domestic issues than on foreign policy matters and because Republicans received more of the blame for the crisis. Moreover, McCain’s own behavior, especially compared to Obama’s coolness, benefited the Democratic nominee.

With national polling showing Obama having established a clear and consistent lead over McCain and polls in key swing states having shifted, Powell’s endorsement is little more than a postscript – an afterthought that doesn’t change the general direction of the race.

Should Congressional GOP Throw McCain Under the Bus?

By Stuart Rothenberg

A dozen years ago this month, with GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole mired far back in the polls, the National Republican Congressional Committee spent millions of dollars on a television ad that urged voters not to give Bill Clinton and “liberal special interests” a “blank check” on Election Day by giving Democrats control of Congress.

Now, with Nov. 4 approaching quickly and the campaign of presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) slipping into a hole that in all likelihood is inescapable, GOP House and Senate strategists — and individual candidates — must decide whether to do the same thing.

Should Republican operatives act as if McCain still can win next month or change their message to something like “Don’t give Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats a blank check in November,” thereby virtually accepting the inevitability of McCain’s defeat and giving House and Senate Republicans a new, potentially effective message in the election’s final weeks?

The NRCC’s decision in late 1996 was not without controversy. Dole’s running mate, former New York Rep. Jack Kemp, strongly criticized the strategy, and even those party insiders who supported it seemed embarrassed by the tactic, which tacitly accepted the idea that the Kansas Senator no longer had any chance to win the presidential race.

But the ad, which ran in more than four dozen Congressional districts, may have helped Republicans minimize their losses and retain their House majority that year.

Republicans don’t have the resources to blanket the country with a similar ad this cycle, and the circumstances are different because Bill Clinton already had served a term in the White House when the 1996 campaign was heading into the final stretch.

And for this strategic shift to work, the Republican National Committee would have to shift some spending away from the presidential contest, and individual candidates would have to take up the message, framing it on a case-by-case basis depending on the district or state.

Still, Republican candidates and strategists have to consider the “no blank check” strategy because it might change the nature of this year’s House and Senate contests from a referendum on President Bush and the financial industry’s meltdown to the next four years under Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) and huge Democratic majorities in the House and the Senate. Any success in doing that would help GOP downballot candidates.

Not everyone agrees that the strategy would work.

One strategist I spoke with noted that voters have little patience with “process arguments” and suggested that the message would need to be more specific about what Obama and a heavily Democratic Congress might do.

But others pointed out that a stunning 40 percent of voters don’t know that Democrats control Congress and that a “blank check” argument could be an effective message for Republican challengers and open-seat candidates.

Still, even those who think the message is a good one are realistic about its potential effect. “It’s a good message, but it isn’t a winning message. I think that it may minimize the damage,” one GOP strategist speculated.

“Nothing else has worked very well this cycle anyway. It’s worth a try,” another Republican agreed.

But wouldn’t throwing McCain under the bus drain Republican enthusiasm, depressing GOP turnout and thereby hurting the party’s House and Senate hopefuls?

Two Republican strategists that I spoke with say it would not. Both argued that Republican voters see what is happening in national polls and increasingly expect McCain to lose. In fact, one said, a “blank check” message might actually increase Republican turnout by convincing the party’s voters that there is “something at stake in this election.”

The most obvious reason to oppose a “blank check” argument is that McCain still may be able to win, and if anyone is able to use the argument it should be McCain, because nothing can stop Democrats from controlling both chambers of Congress with big majorities after November.

In fact, while an external event could theoretically save McCain, the Arizona Republican’s current prospects are horrible.

Obama has now opened up comfortable leads in some supposedly swing states, and his image is improving as McCain’s worsens. As they did in 1980 when they swung late in the campaign to challenger Ronald Reagan, voters apparently have decided that Obama is not a risky choice.

One GOP poll shows McCain trailing by more than 15 points in Wisconsin, a state that Bush lost by two-tenths of a point in 2000 and four-tenths of a point in 2004. Even worse, Obama’s favorable rating in the state is more than 60 percent, while McCain’s is in the mid- to low-40s.

Anyone who thinks that all McCain needs is more TV ads doesn’t understand where this election is. Given the lateness in the cycle, the Republican Party’s current poor image and the party’s financial problems, additional spending on House and Senate contests may well be too little too late. But it just might help deliver a new “no blank check” message that could help Republicans win a few more races than now seems likely.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on October 16, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

2008 Gubernatorial Ratings

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings. Democrats currently hold 28 governorships compared to 22 for the Republicans. Our current estimate is a Democratic gain of one governorship to a Republican of one governorship.

# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

LEAN TAKEOVER (1 R, o D)
  • MO Open (Blunt, R)
TOSS-UP (0 R, 2 D)
  • Gregoire (D-WA)
  • NC Open (Easley, D)
NARROW ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (1 R, 0 D)
  • Daniels (R-IN)
CLEAR ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT PARTY (1 R, 0 D)
  • Douglas (R-VT)
CURRENTLY SAFE (2 R, 4 D)
  • Hoeven (R-ND)
  • Huntsman (R-UT)
  • Lynch (D-NH)
  • Manchin (D-WV)
  • Schweitzer (D-MT)
  • DE Open (Minner, D)

Sunday, October 19, 2008

New Print Edition: Senate, House, Gubernatorial, Presidential Ratings

The October 17, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks (even more frequently as Election Day approaches). Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

In this edition, subscribers get our latest Senate, House, Gubernatorial, and Presidential ratings.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

House rematches may give clue to size of Democratic wave

By Stuart Rothenberg and Nathan L. Gonzales

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A dozen rematches are a good place to look between now and Election Day to see what kind of year the two parties are having in the fight for the U.S. House of Representatives.

There is no question about whether Democrats will retain control. But it is unclear exactly how many seats they will add to their majority. Read the whole story on CNN.com.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Louisiana Senate: NRSC Back In

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has reversed an earlier decision to cancel its last two weeks of advertising in Louisiana. Instead, it has purchased TV time next week and will wait to decide whether to buy the final week before Election Day. The decision comes on the heels of GOP polling showing that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) has only a mid-single digit lead over challenger John Kennedy (R). Democrats dispute those numbers, arguing that Landrieu holds a substantial lead.

GOP May Target Mahoney Media Firm in Other Districts

By Nathan L. Gonzales

With Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) embroiled in an alleged sex scandal, Republicans are putting on the full-court press to broaden the scandal to other districts by implicating House Democratic leadership — and, potentially, Mahoney’s former media firm.

According to the initial ABC News report, Mahoney allegedly promised his mistress a $50,000-a-year job with his media consultant’s firm, Fletcher Rowley Chao Riddle Inc., as part of a package to keep her from going public about their affair.

”This firm is attempting to disassociate itself from its seemingly unethical and potentially illegal behavior because they realize that many of their clients are sitting in targeted districts,” according to one GOP operative, “This is a liability that will undoubtedly be explored."

The Nashville-based FRCR received plenty of good press earlier this year by helping Democrat Travis Childers win the special election in Mississippi’s 1st district. Childers is at limited risk of losing his seat next month, but some of the firm’s other candidates are in much more competitive races.

FRCR works with Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) who knocked off then-Rep. Richard Pombo (R) in 2006 and faces Dean Andal (R) this cycle, as well as teacher Larry Kissell (D), who is in a rematch with Rep. Robin Hayes (R) in North Carolina’s 8th district. Long-shot challenger Jim Harlan (D) in Louisiana’s 1st is also a client.

Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio) is another FRCR candidate, but Republicans failed to recruit a good candidate to take him on.

Once the Mahoney story broke, his media firm sought to sever all ties with the Congressman.

“FRCR Inc. has resigned from Tim Mahoney’s campaign and permanently ended our relationship with him,” CEO Bill Fletcher said. “According to ABC News, Tim Mahoney apparently included our company in a secret legal settlement without the knowledge of our firm. Our firm did not agree to any legal settlement. If these allegations are true, Tim Mahoney’s actions are unacceptable and not in line with FRCR’s business ethics.”

It may be too little too late to stop Republicans from pressing the issue.

UPDATE: In 2007, McNerney switched to McMahon, Squier, Lapp for media. On Thursday, the NRCC sought to make FRCR an issue against candidates in more districts including Don Cravins Jr. (LA7), Lincoln Davis (TN4), Tom Perriello (VA5), Paul Carmouche (LA4), and Joshua Segall (AL3).

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 15, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

California 3: Lungren Responds to Challenger With Two Polls

By Nathan L. Gonzales

On the heels of his opponent releasing a poll showing a statistically even race, Rep. Dan Lungren (R-Calif.) countered by paying for two polls by separate pollsters, each showing him with a significant lead.

An Oct. 7 survey for the Republican’s campaign, conducted by pollster Val Smith, showed him leading physician Bill Durston (D) 47 percent to 27 percent.

An Oct. 9 Moore Information poll, also paid for by Lungren, showed him with a similar 45 percent to 25 percent advantage, and third-party candidates combining for 3 percent.

The Congressman and his campaign said they simply did not believe the polling released early by Durston’s campaign and commissioned the polls to contest the results. An Oct. 4-6 survey by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates for Durston showed Lungren leading his Democratic challenger only 33 percent to 30 percent. A large 30 percent of the electorate was undecided.

Two years ago, Lungren defeated Durston 60 percent to 38 percent, with two third-party candidates combining for less than 3 percent of the vote.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 14, 1008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Massachusetts Senate: Kerry Visits ‘South Pacific’ for Re-Election Bid

By Nathan L. Gonzales

With Election Day just three weeks away, Sen. John Kerry (D) doesn’t seem the least bit worried about his re-election. The Massachusetts Senator was spotted exiting the Lincoln Center Theater in Manhattan on Saturday night after catching the revival of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s “South Pacific.”

Four years ago, Kerry probably envisioned his October 2008 looking much, much different, touring Ohio or Florida, not the Upper West Side, in his quest for a second term as president. Now, Kerry is heavily favored for a fifth term in his race against former CIA agent Jeff Beatty (R) in next month’s general election. “South Pacific” is one of the toughest tickets in New York these days, so Kerry must have figured it was worth the risk.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 14, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Swing Districts Will Show What Election Night Looks Like

By Stuart Rothenberg

As we inch toward November, it looks as if a couple of dozen House races will determine whether Democrats will have a terrific night or merely a good one. Expectations continue to change, and the bar is getting very, very high for Democrats.

Eighteen months ago, the idea that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee might net eight or 10 House seats, after the 30 seats the party picked up in 2006, was seen by most Democrats as a reason for popping corks and opening a case of champagne.

But now, gains of that magnitude would be a distinct disappointment for rank-and-file Democrats, and it would be GOP strategists who would heave a huge sigh of relief at losses limited to those levels.

Some pickups already seem like slam-dunks for Democrats. But here are a dozen races to watch to see whether Democrats are having a big night in the House races:

Florida’s 25th district: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) Vs. Joe Garcia (D). With three Cuban-American seats in play in South Florida, Mario Diaz-Balart’s isn’t the hardest (that would be brother Lincoln Diaz-Balart’s) or the easiest (that would be Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s) for the GOP to hold. A victory by Garcia would be a good sign for Democrats.

New York’s 26th: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) is retiring. Republicans increasingly believe that they can hold this Western New York open seat. Their candidate, businessman Chris Lee, is running on three ballot lines — Republican, Conservative and Independence — and the district certainly tilts to the GOP. Democrat Alice Kryzan won her party’s nomination because two better-funded candidates destroyed each other.

Illinois’ 10th: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) Vs. Dan Seals (D). Kirk would win this rematch against Seals nine out of 10 times, but this could be the year that he doesn’t. The district is competitive, and Kirk will have to run far ahead of the rest of the GOP ticket. A Kirk loss would be bad news for another vulnerable GOP incumbent, Rep. Dave Reichert (Wash.).

New Jersey’s 7th: Rep. Mike Ferguson (R) is retiring. Democrat Linda Stender narrowly lost to Ferguson last time and faces a different foe this year: state Sen. Leonard Lance, a well-regarded moderate. But Lance had a tough primary and therefore began his general election far behind in cash. Still, polling shows this race very close, and the general Republican bent of the district means that Lance may be able to swim against a strong anti-GOP current.

New Hampshire’s 1st: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) Vs. Jeb Bradley (R). Shea-Porter came in on the Democratic wave in 2006, and she faces the man she beat two years ago. Polling suggests a close race, and if Bradley can come back and oust her, it could be a sign that the Democratic wave of 2008 peaked far too early.

Maryland’s 1st: Rep. Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the GOP primary. This very Republican open seat could fall to Democrats, in part because Republicans are divided. Gilchrest lost his primary to conservative state Sen. Andy Harris. The Congressman has endorsed Democrat Frank Kratovil, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is invested in this race, in part because DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer are both from Maryland.

Ohio’s 1st: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) Vs. Steve Driehaus (D). Working-class voters and the size of the African-American vote could be keys to this district. Chabot won re-election with more than 52 percent last time in a bad political environment, and his defeat next month would signal an even bigger Democratic wave. Driehaus is a state legislator who insists he can take votes from Chabot’s base.

Ohio’s 2nd: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) Vs. Victoria Wulsin (D). Schmidt narrowly beat Wulsin last time (by a single point) in a district President Bush carried with 64 percent in 2004. Both nominees have flaws, but if Wulsin wins, it’s a sign of either very low GOP turnout or more Republicans turning against their party. Either way, that would be disastrous news for Republicans.

New Mexico’s 2nd: Rep. Steve Pearce (R) is running for Senate. Polling suggests that Democrat Harry Teague has a narrow lead in this Republican-leaning district, and he is offering a moderate-to-conservative message. Republican Ed Tinsley hopes to make this a liberal vs. conservative choice, but that isn’t easy in an environment when people are worried about their jobs, mortgages and retirement accounts.

Kentucky’s 2nd: Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is retiring. Two state Senators, Republican Brett Guthrie and Democrat David Boswell, are locked in a tight contest. In any normal year, Guthrie probably would win, but national Democrats have dumped a lot of cash into this race to try to pull Boswell across the finish line, and they certainly have a chance of doing so. A Republican loss here would be a horrible sign for GOP prospects in New Mexico’s 2nd district.

Nebraska’s 2nd: Rep. Lee Terry (R) Vs. Jim Esch (D). Terry defeated businessman and veteran Esch by more than 9 points last time, but the worsening national mood has Democrats thinking upset. Polling shows that Terry isn’t safe, and some Republicans complain that he doesn’t run hard enough. But if Terry loses here, Democrats certainly should win 30 seats.

West Virginia’s 2nd: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) Vs. Anne Barth (D). Thinking 30 seats-plus for Democrats? Capito’s district is a good place to look. Polling has shown that the Republican incumbent looks like winner, so if she is upset, you know something huge is happening.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on October 14, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

2008 Senate Ratings

Here are our latest Senate ratings. Our latest estimate is a Democratic gain of 6-9 seats.

# = Moved benefiting Democrats
* = Moved benefiting Republicans

Likely Takeover (2 R, 0 D)
  • NM Open (Domenici, R)
  • VA Open (Warner, R)
Lean Takeover (5 R, 0 D)
  • Dole (R-NC) #
  • Smith (R-OR)
  • Stevens (R-AK)
  • Sununu (R-NH)
  • CO Open (Allard, R)
Toss-Up (1 R, 0 D)
  • Coleman (R-MN)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 1 D)
  • Chambliss (R-GA) #
  • Landrieu (D-LA)
  • McConnell (R-KY)
  • Wicker (R-MS)
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)
  • Collins (R-ME)
Currently Safe (11 R, 11 D)
  • ID Open (Craig, R)
  • NE Open (Hagel, R)
  • Alexander (R-TN)
  • Barrasso (R-WY)
  • Cochran (R-MS)
  • Cornyn (R-TX)
  • Enzi (R-WY)
  • Graham (R-SC)
  • Inhofe (R-OK)
  • Roberts (R-KS)
  • Sessions (R-AL)
  • Baucus (D-MT)
  • Biden (D-DE)
  • Durbin (D-IL)
  • Harkin (D-IA)
  • Johnson (D-SD)
  • Kerry (D-MA)
  • Lautenberg (D-NJ)
  • Levin (D-MI)
  • Pryor (D-AR)
  • Reed (D-RI)
  • Rockefeller (D-WV)

Candidate Gets Very Early Start

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Rick Hendrix announced his 2010 campaign for Congress a few weeks ago. But his campaign is off to an unconventional start — beginning with the fact that he hasn’t chosen a district to run in yet.

That hasn’t stopped the entertainment industry insider from promoting his candidacy, however.

“After his speech to a corner of celebrities and political icons during Vanity Fair and Google’s exclusive, elaborate blowout finale [at the Democratic National Convention], few are left in the dark of Mr. Hendrix’s plans and aspiration as he draws a sharp distinction between his political career and his lifelong dedication as a Christian,” began a news release that announced Hendrix’s campaign soon after the convention.

“Minds are wondering and circles have been a buzz for months concerning his shift and almost hierarchy acceptance into the political dynasties of the Democratic Party,” the oddly worded release continued.

Hendrix, 38, was born and raised in Granite Falls, N.C., a town of about 4,600 people on U.S. 320 between Lenoir and Hickory. Granite Falls is in North Carolina’s 10th district, where attorney Daniel Johnson (D) is taking on Rep. Patrick McHenry (R) this fall.

As owner of the Rick Hendrix Co., the self-proclaimed “#1 Promoter in American Music” handles one-third of all Christian and “positive” music on American radio, promoted the film “The Passion of the Christ” and built an “empire that has generated a quarter of a billion record sells [sic] since the 90’s,” according to his Web site.

The Next Barack Obama?

Hendrix’s Congressional announcement was buried at the end of a Sept. 19 Washington Post article about his efforts to team with Burns Strider, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) faith adviser, to reach out to potential Democratic voters through Christian radio. Hendrix was a part of Clinton’s Faith Outreach Committee during the presidential primary, and he was a pledged at-large delegate for the Senator in Denver.

He is also partnering with Strider and former Hill aide Eric Sapp of the Eleison Group to form Faithful Media, a for-profit endeavor designed to “provide unprecedented services and support to progressive causes and Democratic candidates.”

Hendrix might be one of the beneficiaries.

“Hendrix made his political aspirations clear to party notables such as Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Madeleine Albright, John Kerry, General Wesley Clark, and the Clintons,” according to his initial release, which read like a news story.

Pictures of Hendrix with Democratic luminaries are available on his MySpace page, including him “escorting” Albright and Kerry out of the Google party.

The release, which was long on name-dropping and short on substance, also compared now-Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) 2004 coming-out party at the Democratic convention in Boston to Hendrix’s 2008 appearance in Denver.

“After this year’s Democratic National Convention showcase of the party’s new and rising young stars, many Democrats are hoping that lightning will strike twice with Rick Hendrix,” the release said.

By announcing his candidacy so early, Hendrix is similar to Obama, since Obama, then a state Senator, began his 2004 U.S. Senate bid before the 2002 elections.

But Hendrix continues to be a candidate without a district. It appears he wants to run in the 10th district, but Johnson is already challenging McHenry, and while he is a distinct long shot, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently added Johnson to its “Red to Blue” list, which should boost his fundraising.

For now, Hendrix is playing the part of a loyal party foot soldier and supporting Johnson’s candidacy. Hendrix considered temporarily turning his 2010 campaign Web site into a blog for Johnson’s cause, even though the two men have only traded messages and have never spoken.

“Mr. Hendrix is definitely supporting Daniel’s campaign, and I think it says a lot about what’s going on here in western North Carolina that high-profile people like Mr. Hendrix are getting involved in this race,” said Lauren Moore, Johnson’s deputy campaign manager.

Where Is Home?

Even if Hendrix had a clear shot at the 10th district, now or in 2010, it would not be easy. He was born and raised in the district, but it’s unclear where he lives now.

The Rick Hendrix Co. has offices in Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and Nashville, Tenn. Hendrix said in an interview that he lives in Granite Falls and commutes to Nashville, where his kids attend school (he is divorced).

But he lists Nashville as home on his MySpace page, where 30 photos of “My Nashville Home” are available.

“He hasn’t lived here in 20 years,” said one Democratic operative in the Tar Heel State.

Another challenge would be the district itself. The 10th district takes in all or part of 10 counties in western North Carolina and gave President Bush 67 percent of the vote four years ago. The district has also sent a Republican to Congress for the past four decades.

McHenry, 32, was first elected in 2004 to fill the seat vacated by GOP Rep. Cass Ballenger and was re-elected with 62 percent last cycle. He is a reliable Republican vote and enjoys being combative, but he broke with his party by voting against the Central American Free Trade Agreement in 2005.

Hendrix’s friends in the national Democratic Party — he calls Pelosi one of his “favorite people in the world” — may not be as popular in the district.

“When the curtain pulls, I can see my mama voting Republican,” Hendrix half-joked, showing some instincts about his family and the district.

“You can be a Democratic candidate and serve well without being as red as your constituency,” Hendrix said in a phone interview, adding that he thought the Clintons were a “50/50 split” in the district. “I would not hide from them because of a poll.”

Former President Bill Clinton lost the district by 20 points to Bob Dole in 1996. So why run?

“This is a new door I feel opening,” Hendrix said. “There is a learning curve for all of us. Democrats have never tried this, and I’ve never tried the political thing before.”

Going National, Tapping Employees

It’s clear that the first-time candidate will have to work to transition from promoter to candidate.

Congressional candidates don’t usually launch their bids three years in advance for a two-year term, particularly without a district.

“This is a year if you are a Democrat you’ve got a get-out-of-jail-free card with Republicans who [traditionally] don’t like the Democratic agenda,” Hendrix said about the timing of his announcement.

RickHendrixforCongress.com is live, but with minimal information.

“Thank you for stopping by. An exploratory committee has been formed for Rick Hendrix and the 2010 mid-term elections,” it says on the site. According to Hendrix, he has filed an exploratory committee with the Federal Election Commission, but he is not yet raising money for a Congressional bid.

The Web site directs visitors to the “Rick Hendrix for Congress National Headquarters,” based in Washington, which could be a first for a Congressional candidate.

Most candidates are running away from D.C. these days, but Hendrix said that even though the national headquarters is not finalized, it could be a natural fit because of all the business that he conducts in Washington already.

“We serve ourselves well by having it there,” Hendrix said, “We need to be in big places and not be afraid.”

Currently, the line between Hendrix’s campaign and his company appears to be nonexistent. The contact phone number for Hendrix’s campaign is the same number listed for his company’s D.C. office. A call placed to the number was answered with an ambiguous, “Rick Hendrix’s office.” And two different staff contacts on the campaign news releases use the phone number as well as company e-mail addresses.

As his campaign ramps up, those distinctions will need to be made, because corporate campaign contributions are illegal and Democrats have been particularly critical over the past few years of Republican businessmen allegedly using their companies to leverage their campaigns.

For now, it’s all a part of Hendrix’s plan.

“We’ll engage the whole company,” Hendrix said, referring to his 2010 bid. “Anyone who works for me will work for the campaign.”

If employees do not want to be involved in the campaign (Hendrix estimates that number to be 20 to 30 out of more than 150), then they can keep their jobs on the music side, according to the candidate.

Official Launch Coming Soon

In general, Hendrix is banking on scores of people helping him after years of promoting and helping others. He believes that all or most of the 700 musical artists (about 70 percent of whom are Christian) that he represents will do fundraisers and concerts on his behalf.

Their willingness may not matter. “Hendrix has demanded that his musician clients let him stage rallies or set up informational tables for Democrats at or near their shows, whether they like it or not,” according to the Washington Post story, which highlighted some of Hendrix’s efforts during the presidential primary. “About half his artists are fine with that, he says, while the others agree somewhat reluctantly.”

Listening to Hendrix, you get the feeling that he is running a national campaign for Congress. Although it’s just in the preliminary stages, it sounds like the most massive Congressional campaign ever assembled.

His effort could officially launch as soon as Jan. 1, with the help of Strider and Sapp’s Eleison Group. Hendrix wants to go into the race with $4 million, hire “major advisers” and have an army of 10,000 volunteers. He’s also talking about 300 billboards, fliers in power bills and a book tour of 600 locations in three months during the campaign.

Hendrix plans to couple the massive e-mail list he’s built over the years with consumer information for micro-targeting. He also plans to reach out to the 34.5 million MySpace friends stretched across his 700 musical artists.

“As the night went on, Hendrix found the small posse he arrived with had blossomed into a room of the world’s most notable figures and their eyes and ears were fixed on his every word, jokes and smiles,” Hendrix’s announcement news release read. “Actress Anne Hathaway said, ‘Rick inspires and excites me about the future of our party.’”

The political world may not be ready for Rick Hendrix.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on October 9, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.