Alaska Senate: Polar Opposite Polling

By Nathan L. Gonzales

A newly released Dittman Research (R) poll showed Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) leading Gov. Sarah Palin (R) by a wide margin in a hypothetical 2010 GOP Senate primary matchup. The results were also the complete opposite of another public poll taken during the same time period.

Murkowski led 57 percent to 33 percent in the Dittman survey, taken Dec. 5-20, and paid for by the Alaska Standard, a Republican Web site. A Dec. 15-17 survey by the nonpartisan Research 2000 for the liberal, Democratic Web site DailyKos.com showed Palin leading a primary 55 percent to 31 percent.

Even though Palin defeated Lisa Murkowski’s father, the incumbent governor, in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, there is no indication that a 2010 matchup will materialize.

“In my opinion, Alaska is hard to poll accurately,” Dittman said, “Many outside research firms have problems here — Rasmussen is the exception, they have a very good record — but Kos is one of the worst. In the recent general election here, the final Kos survey was probably the most inaccurate poll in the nation.”

“One thing we learned in 2008, it’s that Alaska is clearly a difficult place to poll,” said Markos Moulitsas of DailyKos.com about the Senate and House races. “The state wasn’t kind to any pollster last year.” But Moulitsas did point out the accuracy of Research 2000 at the presidential level in Alaska.

Maryland-based Research 2000 showed Sen. John McCain (R) with a 58 percent to 39 percent lead in an Oct. 28-30 survey. Anchorage-based Dittman Research showed McCain with a 56 percent to 37 percent advantage in an Oct. 24-29 poll. And Rasmussen had McCain up 16 points on Oct. 28. The GOP nominee won the state 59 percent to 38 percent.

Pollsters inside and outside the Last Frontier took their lumps last year in Alaska’s downballot races.

In the House race, no public polls, dating back as far as fall 2007, showed Rep. Don Young (R) ahead of Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz, and most had him trailing by at least 5 points. Young, who is under investigation, was re-elected 50 percent to 45 percent.

In the Senate race, most of the polls gave Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) a slight to narrow advantage over then-Sen. Ted Stevens (R) throughout the race, but there were only a couple of public polls after the Senator’s conviction on seven counts of corruption.

An Oct. 28-30 Research 2000/DailyKos.com (D) poll gave Begich a 22-point lead, Rasmussen gave Begich an 8-point advantage in an Oct. 28 survey, and Alaska-based Hays Research showed the mayor with a 7-point edge. Begich won the race 48 percent to 47 percent.

According to Dittman, his firm has correctly predicted every primary and general election winner for Senate and governor of Alaska for 34 years, even though its margin in last year’s Senate race was also wider than the final result. A Dittman poll on the House race was not listed on Pollster.com.

The strange thing about the 2010 Senate polls is that the difference is not really one of margin. The results are totally opposite, and the explanation is not clear.

Dittman expressed concern about the Research 2000 methodology in local media stories, but declined to give specifics.

His poll surveyed 505 adults, with an over-sample of 430 Republicans for a sample for the primary question, from Dec. 5-20 (much longer than the traditional research period). The survey was paid for by the Alaska Standard, a conservative, Republican Web site that lists Dittman and Lisa Murkowski as contributors. The site’s publisher, conservative talk show host Dan Fagan, is a well-known Palin critic.

Research 2000 surveyed 600 likely voters, including 400 likely GOP primary voters for the Senate question, from Dec. 15-17. The poll was paid for by Kos Media LLC, but Moulitsas does not have a hand in the way the survey is conducted and posts all crosstabs and results on his Web site. Research 2000 President Del Ali noted in an interview that screening and predicting likely primary voters almost two years before an election is difficult and a potentially fruitless exercise.

Even though the ballot question results were different, the surveys agreed that Palin and Murkowski are popular.

In the Research 2000 poll, Murkowski had a 51 percent favorable/43 percent unfavorable among all voters (including 72 percent favorable/22 percent unfavorable among Republicans), compared to 60 percent favorable/38 percent unfavorable for Palin among all voters and an overwhelming 88 percent favorable/10 percent unfavorable among Republicans.

Dittman Research tested job approval instead of person favorability. Seventy-six percent of all respondents gave Murkowski a “very good” or “quite good” job rating compared to 17 percent “not too good” or “pretty bad.” Palin held a lower 65 percent “very good” or “quite good” job rating and 34 percent “not too good” or “pretty bad.” Job numbers among just Republicans were not available.

For now, there are two very different polls for a race that will likely never exist. And in general, Dittman appears unwilling to specifically criticize the methodology because that would then give away the secret recipe to polling the state. So who is right? We’ll probably never know.

“I have no interest in a pissing match,” Moulitsas remarked. “Aggregating multiple polls gave us great predictive power in 2008 in pretty much every race except Alaska Senate and Alaska at-large. I want more polling. I see no point in trashing anyone doing reputable work.”


This story first appeared on RollCall.com on January 9, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Alaska Senate: Begich Now Favored

New Print Edition: Mississippi Senate & Alaska Senate

The July 16, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...


Mississippi Senate: Blue Plate Special?
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Republicans defending a Senate seat in Mississippi is just another sign of how bad 2008 is shaping up to be for the GOP.

Coming into the cycle, many Republicans expected the Magnolia State might have a retirement – Republican Sen. Thad Cochran’s. Cochran decided to run for reelection, but Mississippi’s other senator, Trent Lott (R), decided to call it quits for K Street, just a year after winning reelection.

Gov. Haley Barbour (R) subsequently appointed 1st District Cong. Roger Wicker (R) to fill the open seat, and Wicker is now standing for election this November for the remaining four years of the term. Democrats recruited former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove to run, and even though he lost reelection to Barbour, he starts the race with high name identification.

Meanwhile, Republicans lost Wicker’s open seat in a special election, and Democrats nationwide are energized and starting to count to 60 Senate seats. Mississippi would be part of that equation. Read the whole story by subscribing to the print edition.

Alaska Senate: Legendary Status

Just because they name the airport after you doesn’t mean they won’t throw you out of office.

Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens is the longest serving Republican in the Senate, and he’s in danger of losing reelection. He’s coasted through six reelections, but Stevens is now under federal investigation, just as some of his fellow Republicans in the state are being carted off to jail.

New York Sen. Chuck Schumer and the DSCC successfully recruited Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to run for the Senate. While his political track record isn’t unblemished, he’s the best candidate they could have hoped for in a state where only 14% of voters are registered Democrats.
Despite their confidence, Democrats have to walk a fine line. Even though some of Stevens’ actions make him an easy target, he is still beloved in the state that he has represented for four decades.

For a top tier race, the contest is getting started late. But as the candidates raise money and start their campaigns, everyone has one eye and ear tuned to when the FBI might hand down another indictment. Read the whole story by subscribing to the print edition.

Are Senate Races Moving in One Partisan Direction?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Senate election cycles normally take one of two paths. Either all the close races fall toward one party in a political “wave,” or individual races are decided by race-specific factors, particularly the quality of the candidates, the power of incumbency and local issues.

We’ve had cycles when both parties have suffered a substantial number of defeats with only a minimal net change of Senate seats (1976 and 1978 are prime examples), but that’s not going to happen this cycle. Republicans have only a single reasonable opportunity for a takeover this year.

We’ve had four noteworthy Senate “waves” in the past 28 years, in 2006, 1994, 1986 and 1980, and it’s possible that we’ll see another one this year. But it’s also possible that all the talk about Democratic Senate opportunities is just a bit over-hyped, and that Democrats will have a good year, not a great one.

One way of anticipating whether a wave is likely to develop is to monitor competitive Senate contests periodically to determine whether they are moving in one direction. That’s what I intend to do in this column. Of course, any wave may not show itself until after the two presidential nominating conventions. Still, the way individual Senate races move in the near term may offer some clue about a trend.

I must begin with one caveat: In evaluating races, I do not factor in certain widely circulated polls, including those conducted by Rasmussen Reports, that I regard as less reliable. (In other words, I treat some polls as if they don’t even exist.)

Democrats continue to be well- positioned to take over three GOP-held seats: open seats in Virginia and New Mexico, and Sen. John Sununu’s seat in New Hampshire. There is no evidence of significant movement in any of those contests, though Republicans continue to insist that Sununu’s race will close.

Democrats, of course, don’t need movement in any of the contests. They lead in all three.

The fourth most vulnerable Senate seat, the open Republican seat in Colorado, remains competitive. But given the state’s recent political behavior and the national mood, GOP insiders have little reason to be optimistic about their chances.

The next most vulnerable Senate seat, in Minnesota, has moved toward the Republicans in recent weeks. GOP strategists have successfully put presumptive Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Al Franken on the defensive, both over his nonpayment of certain taxes and, more importantly, a variety of statements he has made over the years.

Franken has defended his remarks by insisting that they were part of his shtick and intended as satire, not statements of his beliefs. But his language has been crude and his comedy often biting, and even some Democratic officeholders have expressed concern about his judgment.

Republican Sen. Norm Coleman has benefited in the polls of late, and even though Franken has time to change the dynamic of the race, it now seems likely that the comedian turned politician will have to defend himself repeatedly over the next four months. At the very least, that puts the challenger constantly on the defensive, improving Coleman’s prospects.

There are no signs of movement in Alaska, and that’s good news for Democrats. Polls continue to show challenger Mark Begich (D) leading Sen. Ted Stevens (R) narrowly. The longer that race stays tight, the better for Democrats, who are trying to knock off a state political icon.

The fact that the Maine race has not closed in surveys widely viewed as reliable is disappointing news for Democrats. GOP Sen. Susan Collins continues to be well-regarded and has a comfortable lead over her challenger, Rep. Tom Allen (D). Sitting in a blue state that went for Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Collins would seem to be a perfect target in a “wave” election, but so far, her prospects are undimmed.

Democrats remain upbeat about Jeff Merkley’s chances of ousting Sen. Gordon Smith in Oregon, but I’m not convinced that they are any closer to doing that now than they were four or five months ago.

True, the recent decision by Independent John Frohmayer to drop his Senate candidacy is good news for Merkley. But it is difficult to see it as all that significant, especially since Democrats spent so much time and effort arguing that Frohmayer’s candidacy was inconsequential when he was a candidate. If they were right that he wasn’t going to be a factor in the race, they cannot now claim that his exit is all that important.

Still, this definitely is a race to watch for possible “wave” evidence, and Smith almost certainly will have a fight on his hands all the way to November.

If a wave develops, the three best places to watch may well be North Carolina, Kentucky and Mississippi. Democratic prospects in all three seem to have improved recently (especially after post-primary polling in North Carolina and Kentucky), giving the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee more options in the campaign’s final months.

Even Republicans seem increasingly nervous about Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.), who hasn’t released polling numbers since February and has been up on TV since late May. Dole’s opponent, state Sen. Kay Hagan (D), has some liabilities, but I have little doubt about her work ethic.

Finally, the Louisiana Senate race, pitting incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) against her GOP challenger, John Kennedy, hasn’t changed at all. Polls show the Senator ahead, but the fundamentals almost guarantee a close race.

In sum, developments in two states, Minnesota and Maine, should have Republicans optimistic, while Democrats have reasons to be happy about some longer-shot races, as well as their top takeover opportunities.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on June 23, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

A Crop of House Candidates Worth Taking a Look At

By Stuart Rothenberg

There is relatively little attention being paid to this year’s fight for the House of Representatives, since Republicans have no chance retaking the chamber in November.

Even more important, most reporters and observers are hypnotized by the fascinating presidential race, and those who care about Congress seem more interested in whether Democrats can gain nine Senate seats and true control of the chamber.

But while they aren’t the focus of the nation’s attention, hundreds of men and women are once again running for Congress, and there are plenty of good ones in the crowd. I haven’t met all of the people receiving positive buzz from national Democratic and Republican strategists, but I have met some. Here’s a quick rundown of the few candidates who have impressed me.

State Rep. Steve Driehaus is challenging Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in Ohio’s 1st district, which includes Cincinnati’s West Side, as well as suburban areas north and west of the city.

The 41-year-old hopeful calls himself a “raging moderate.” He is pro-life (and has been endorsed by right-to-life groups in the past) but supports embryonic stem-cell research. He voted for Ohio’s Defense of Marriage Act but opposes a federal Constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, saying it’s unnecessary. And he opposes “artificial timelines” on withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq, but he believes those forces should be withdrawn.

Driehaus is a political animal. Since he comes from the white, Catholic, middle-class part of the district and should benefit from the district’s considerable African-American population, the challenger should give Chabot a run for his money. But don’t give this seat to the Democrats just yet. Chabot is a survivor.

Ethan Berkowitz, 45, is the former Alaska House Minority Leader. He was the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006 when gubernatorial nominee Tony Knowles (D) went down to defeat, and now he is running for his state’s lone House seat.

A graduate of Harvard with an M.A. from Cambridge, Berkowitz is thoughtful and likable. He is significantly more liberal (he says “progressive”) than most Alaskans on social issues. He is pro-choice and opposed a state constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage that passed by a 2-1 margin.

But Berkowitz is worth watching because the state GOP has plenty of headaches, and Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young are both under investigation. Young now faces a serious primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R). The chaos could help Berkowitz, who must be hoping that a bloodied Young survives to the general election.

I’m told that the ladies think that New Mexico’s 1st district Democratic hopeful Martin Heinrich is good-looking. All I know is that he seems pretty down to earth, is putting together a good campaign and has the kind of background that should be appealing to New Mexico voters.

A former Albuquerque city councilor and chairman of the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, he has extensive background in environmental issues, as well as some experience in campaigns. He describes himself as “a big Second Amendment guy” and says he supports capital punishment.

Heinrich, 36, faces both a primary and a competitive general election, likely against Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R), but he is worth watching.

If you like your candidates young, you’ll find Illinois state Rep. Aaron Schock (R), 26, more than interesting. He was elected to the Peoria school board in 2001, even before he graduated from Bradley University.

In 2004, Schock knocked off an incumbent Democratic state legislator in a Democratic district, and he turned back a major challenge two years later. A conservative who says he focuses on constituent services, Schock is the GOP nominee for retiring Rep. Ray LaHood’s (R) open seat.

The clean-cut hopeful looks like the president of a College Republicans chapter (and acts far older than his years), and he sounded well-versed on most matters. If you can be a seasoned political pro at 26, Schock is. It’s a bit scary, actually.

The fact that Brett Guthrie (R) made it on the ballot this year is evidence enough of his political savvy.

The three-term Kentucky state Senator had an inkling that Rep. Ron Lewis (R) might retire, so he waited and watched, submitting his filing papers at the deadline, moments after Lewis withdrew his and the Congressman’s aide filed to run for the open seat.

Guthrie, 43, is likely to face state Sen. David Boswell (D). The Republican, who graduated from West Point and holds an M.A. from Yale, is personal and politically astute, and he’ll be a formidable candidate in the open seat.

Finally, Anne Northup (R), the five-term Kentucky Congresswoman who was swept from office in the 2006 anti-Republican wave, is seeking her old House seat.

Northup, who lost an ill-advised gubernatorial primary last year, has a history of running excellent campaigns, but she was always at risk because of the marginal nature of her Louisville-area district. She wasn’t going to run this time until the likely GOP nominee was called to active military duty.

The former Congresswoman is smart, politically astute and knowledgeable about her district. She also brought home the bacon while in Congress. It won’t be easy for her to dislodge freshman Rep. John Yarmuth (D), and fundraising is a huge question mark for her. But Northup has been through a great deal, including the death in July 2006 of one of her adopted children, and there is no one with greater inner strength.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on March 31, 2008. Copyright 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Alaska At-Large & Arizona 8

The March 7, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...

Alaska At-Large: Young Blood
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Not too long ago, no one could have imagined that both of Alaska’s legislative legends could possibly go down to defeat. But with Republicans in the state being dragged off to jail one-by-one and the general public souring on Republicans in general, both Cong. Don Young (R) and Sen. Ted Stevens (R) find themselves at risk of losing reelection in 2008.

While Stevens is described as the statesman and even godfather of the state, Young’s image is far less awe-inspiring, and he’s faced with a growing mountain of questions surrounding his performance in office and the ongoing investigation into his dealings.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee would have loved to get Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) to challenge Young, but instead the mayor is running against Stevens. Democrats do have former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz against Young, and although he doesn’t have the profile or name that Begich brings, he is a credible challenger who can take advantage of a weak incumbent.

Unfortunately for Democrats, the state is staunchly Republican by the numbers, particularly in a presidential year. And Alaskans haven’t voted for a Democrat for the House of Representatives in over three decades. But as we’ve seen in districts across the country, scandal and ethics is the recipe that can neutralize any existing partisan advantage. Read the whole story in the print edition.

Arizona 8: Bee Ready

Usually the first race to Congress is the most difficult for a member. But in the case of Democratic Cong. Gabrielle Giffords, this year is likely to be a tougher election fight than was her open seat contest in 2006, when she first won the right to represent Arizona’s 8th Congressional District by defeating a former GOP state legislator who was so polarizing that he lost some of the party’s faithful.
In 2008, Giffords will face state Senate President Tim Bee (R), whose candidacy represents a slice of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy election cycle for national Republicans.

But even though he’s the best candidate Republicans could have asked for in this southeastern Arizona district, he will also face the toughest general election fight of his political career.

And while many of her Democratic colleagues are excited about the potential influence of the Democratic presidential nominee on down ballot races, Giffords is running in the shadow of Arizona Sen. John McCain’s (R) presidential bid, creating an uncertain dynamic in the 8th District. Read the whole story in the print edition.