Tuesday Showed It’s Wise to Expect Unexpected

By Stuart Rothenberg

What a really weird week.

Rep. Mark Souder, a socially conservative Republican from Indiana, admits he had an affair with a staffer and steps down from his seat. Squeaky-clean Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) admits he “misspoke” about his military record but says he won’t allow anyone to “impugn my record of service to our country.” And primary voters in Pennsylvania and Kentucky appear to prefer the more ideological candidates in primaries.

Souder’s resignation means local Republican leaders will pick a new nominee — something that didn’t work well twice in New York special elections last year. It’s a recipe for hurt feelings and attacks against the party’s “handpicked” candidate at a time when party insiders aren’t at their most popular.

This doesn’t mean that Democrats have a strong chance of winning the open seat, given the district’s bent and the tendency of special elections to help the party not holding the White House when the president is unpopular. But it does mean that the Republican nominee ought not take a victory for granted.

In the Nutmeg State, Blumenthal’s out-of-the-blue scandal is unwelcome news for national and state Democrats.

Blumenthal’s past statements will now be dissected by state reporters looking for other examples of embellishment and exaggeration, and if they find more examples, it will raise questions about his record, in addition to his character.

Does this mean that Connecticut is a tossup? Has the race changed so dramatically that neither party has an advantage?

When in the middle of a storm — meteorological or political — the best advice usually is to hunker down and wait for the storm to pass until it is safe to assess the damage. We don’t know how the Blumenthal controversy will develop, so I’m inclined to see what the voters think about the controversy before changing a rating.

Obviously, the dust-up over the state attorney general’s misstatements creates an opening for Republicans, raising new doubts about Blumenthal’s appeal. Still, this is Connecticut, and the eventual GOP nominee will have to overcome plenty of hurdles of his or her own.

Rand Paul’s thumping of Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson for the GOP Senate nomination in the Bluegrass State can’t be ignored.

Grayson raised some eyebrows by closing with two TV spots that emphasized his endorsements by high-profile state and national Republican leaders. Observers thought the decision odd given the electorate’s mood.

But Grayson’s media consultant Larry McCarthy, whom I have praised over the years and still believe is a master ad-maker, told me that the final ads weren’t picked out of the air.

“We tested negatives, the value of the [Sen. Mitch] McConnell and [Rep. Hal] Rogers endorsements and other things, and it wasn’t a close call. The data suggested strongly that [what we chose] was the right message to do,” McCarthy told me.

Paul’s early money made him a credible alternative to Grayson, who was preferred by national GOP strategists and most big-name Kentucky Republicans but was widely regarded as less than a compelling personality.

Can Paul win in the fall? Republicans who were initially skeptical about his electability now think that he could win. But they remain extremely worried about his prospects.

Veteran Republican campaign operatives fear that Democrats will successfully highlight some of his controversial past statements, and they worry that he has an additional six months to make a major mistake or two that could cost him the race. They also note that he has run a strong race so far.

Kentucky Democratic nominee Jack Conway’s narrow primary win also means problems for Democrats, because they too will have to find a way to unite after a bitter primary. Supporters of Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D), more rural and culturally conservative, won’t necessarily gravitate to Conway in the general election.

The instant analysis of “outsider” victories Tuesday isn’t wrong — it just presents only part of the picture.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D) lost in Pennsylvania not because he was an insider as much as because he was a party switcher without a pre-existing base in his new party — and an opportunist at that. But Paul certainly qualifies as an “outsider,” and some “establishment-backed” candidates for Congress (for example, Republican Mary Beth Buchanan in Pennsylvania’s 4th district and incumbent Democratic Rep. Tim Holden in Pennsylvania’s 17th district) performed much worse than expected.

On the other hand, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) turned back a primary challenge, and former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino (R) won his primary in Pennsylvania’s 10th district. Kentucky’s Conway was also backed by his state party’s establishment, and not a single House incumbent on Tuesday seeking renomination was defeated. So far this cycle, 98 percent of all incumbents seeking re-election have been renominated.

The defeat of Republican Tim Burns in the Pennsylvania 12th district special election obviously is the biggest blow to the GOP, which hoped to show the existence of an early wave building against Democrats and President Barack Obama. That didn’t happen, in part because of strong Democratic turnout in the race and statewide.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on May 20, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Conway, Mongiardo Getting Nasty in Kentucky Race

By Stuart Rothenberg

While national political reporters have been focused almost entirely on Kentucky’s GOP Senate primary, Democrats in the Bluegrass State have an entertaining race of their own that raises some interesting questions about money, message, media and November.

The early frontrunner in the Democratic race, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, has been short on cash, and it is unclear whether Attorney General Jack Conway has caught him or still trails. Public polls generally show that the lieutenant governor remains ahead, though his once 20-point lead has been cut considerably.

An early April SurveyUSA poll showed Conway closing to within a few points of Mongiardo (35 percent to 32 percent), while a more recent Public Policy Polling (D) survey conducted after Mongiardo began his TV ads showed the lieutenant governor ahead by 9 points, 36 percent to 27 percent.

A new Lexington Herald-Leader poll shows Mongiardo leading by 7 points, 39 percent to 32 percent, while some private polling suggests that the lieutenant governor’s lead may even be a little bigger.

The sole poll showing Conway ahead comes from the attorney general’s own pollster, Peter Brodnitz. That survey, which seems less convincing in the light of other surveys, found Conway ahead of Mongiardo by 4 points.

Mongiardo, who lost a squeaker of a Senate race to Sen. Jim Bunning (R) six years ago, was elected lieutenant governor in 2007. Given those two statewide contests, he began his Senate bid with a considerable lead over Conway, who narrowly lost a Congressional race to Louisville-area Republican Anne Northup in 2002 but was elected state attorney general the same year Mongiardo won his statewide office.

Conway, who has been endorsed by the Louisville Courier-Journal, has the backing of most of the state political establishment and outraised Mongiardo $2.5 million to $1.7 million through the end of March.

Observers note that both Conway and Mongiardo have assets.

In addition to endorsements and financial resources, Conway “looks the part” of a Senator, according to one neutral Democrat. He is a strong campaigner and, according to observers, a more disciplined candidate.

But while Conway certainly should have appeal in metropolitan Louisville, Mongiardo looks like a better fit for much of the rest of the state. He is, one insider said, “more of a good ol’ boy candidate,” and his more populist style fits the election cycle better than Conway’s preppy look.

The attorney general went on television first and has aired a series of 30-second spots, including a number of ads that bash Mongiardo for everything from opposing health care reform to “using our tax dollars for his own real estate deal” to “pigging out” at the public trough.

A March 24 Conway press release charged that Mongiardo “doesn’t show up for work 70% of the time” and “violates [the] public trust,” while a May 4 Conway release refers to Mongiardo’s “crumbling integrity” and says that his “word is no good and he is not entitled to his own set of delusional facts.”

These kinds of charges are unusually strong for a primary, though they follow naturally from Conway’s emphasis on Mongiardo’s personal ethics.

The lieutenant governor, who didn’t have the money to respond to Conway’s early spots for about three weeks, has been limited to running populist 15-second ads that portray Conway as “backed by Wall Street and banking interests,” slam him for supporting cap-and-trade and imply he is a tool of the state’s utility companies.

If anything, the tightness of the race is likely to lead both Democratic campaigns to level more pointed criticisms at their opponent.

The Democratic race seems increasingly important — and valuable — because ophthalmologist Rand Paul is widely regarded as the frontrunner in the GOP race.

National Republican strategists are uncertain whether Paul, whose libertarian views and outsider approach are reminiscent of his father’s, can win a general election, and hypothetical general election trial heats confirm that Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) would be a more formidable nominee for his party.

The increased vitriol in the Kentucky Democratic contest has to worry Democrats, whose hopes for an upset in November probably depend on party unity and Democratic enthusiasm for their party’s nominee. President Barack Obama drew only 41 percent in the state after all.

Indeed, while Democrats have been trying to create a narrative about divisive Republican primaries that will hurt the party’s nominees in November, Democrats have had their own primary problems for the fall.

Aside from this increasingly bitter Kentucky race, the party has primary problems in Pennsylvania, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado and Ohio, where Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) is angry about what she believes was unfair treatment during her race against Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who won the primary only 55 percent to 45 percent, even though Brunner was seriously underfunded.

And in Illinois, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who won only 39 percent of the vote in the Democratic Senate primary, will have trouble winning over the supporters of David Hoffman (who garnered 30 percent), whose anti-corruption message was clearly aimed at Giannoulias.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on May 11, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

KY Senate: Grayson Readies Second TV Ad Against Paul

By Stuart Rothenberg

A new Trey Grayson TV spot scheduled to air starting tomorrow, Friday, in the Fort Campbell and Fort Knox areas continues the Kentucky Secretary of State’s targeted campaign against GOP primary opponent Rand Paul.

The new ad, which follows an ad in Eastern Kentucky criticizing Paul’s position on coal, targets Paul’s stance on national security.

“On national defense, there are big differences between Rand Paul and me,” says Grayson in the spot, produced by veteran media consultant Larry McCarthy.

The ad charges that Paul “opposes the war in Iraq” and “doubts whether Afghanistan is still a threat,” and it includes video of Paul talking about the need to cut “some of what we are doing militarily to balance the budget.”

“I’ll work to balance the budget without putting our security at risk,” says Grayson at the end of the 30-second spot.

Grayson has begun his media campaign with a series of target ads, first on conservative radio, then the coal TV ad in Eastern Kentucky and, most recently, an ad on Christian radio addressing Paul’s position on abortion.

“We are going to tell people what Rand Paul believes. There is a lot of videotape out there,” says McCarthy, one of the best ad makers in the business.



A recently released Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies poll shows Rand Paul leading Grayson by 21 points, but Magellan was forced to issue a public apology for not including other announced candidates in the survey, and while the firm has experience in targeting, it has no reputation as a pollster.

In fact, other polling, which has not been released, suggests that the GOP primary is very close, with Paul holding a narrow edge at the margin of error.

Don’t Hold Your Breath for an Anti-Incumbent Election

By Stuart Rothenberg

Voters are angry, especially at Washington, D.C., and with politicians. They are unhappy with both parties. All that is generally true.

But voters’ dissatisfaction with those in charge doesn’t mean that November is likely to be an “anti-incumbent election.” In fact, it almost certainly won’t. We never, or almost never, have true anti-incumbent elections, as I have noted before.

If Republican incumbents have problems, it will be in their primaries.

In Texas, Gov. Rick Perry looked to have enough momentum to pull away from his GOP primary opponent, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. But that hasn’t happened. The Senator hasn’t been a scintillating candidate, but she is still very much in the game against the governor, according to knowledgeable insiders.

Perry won re-election four years ago with only 39 percent of the vote in a four-way race. While conservatives have rallied behind him, there are many in the Republican Party who don’t like his smugness and his shoot-from-the-hip style.

Arizona’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who became the state’s top officeholder when her predecessor joined the Obama administration, faces a roomful of primary challengers in her bid for a full term, and her prospects are uncertain. She inherited a terrible budget situation and was forced to select from a number of unappealing choices.

Indiana Rep. Dan Burton, South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis and Utah Sen. Bob Bennett also face challenges that have developed to a stage that make them worth watching.

Nonincumbent Republicans who have the mantle of the establishment are also vulnerable given the current environment.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the state’s GOP Senate nomination, is the most obvious example. He faces a very difficult fight against former state Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who is running as the insurgent despite his previous position.

The same dynamic is taking place in New Hampshire, where conservative Ovide Lamontagne and two businessmen could give former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte a migraine in the Republican Senate primary.

And in Kentucky, Rand Paul, son of Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul (a former presidential candidate), is running as an outsider for the Republican Senate nomination against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the favorite of virtually the entire state and the national Republican Party. GOP insiders think Grayson can win the primary, but they are far from certain about the outcome.

But if those incumbents (and establishment-backed nonincumbents) get past their primaries, they will then benefit from the public mood, which currently looks likely to punish Democrats at the ballot box.

A rash of recent polling, much of it paid for by liberal Web sites Daily Kos and Firedoglake, show Democratic incumbents in horrible shape — about where Republicans were in 2006 and 2008.

Surveys over the past couple of weeks have shown former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) ahead of Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) by 8 points, Andy Harris (R) leading Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-Md.) by 13 points, former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) leading Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.) by 10 points and former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) leading Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) by a whopping 17 points.

In addition, Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) leads unknown challenger Randy Altschuler (R) by only 2 points, while controversial Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is drawing 55 percent in an early ballot test against state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D).

Even if only most of these results are close to being accurate, they suggest that other Democratic House incumbents are seeing significant erosion in their numbers from what those same numbers were even a year ago.

Over in the Senate, Democratic numbers are equally terrible.

Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Nevada Sen. Harry Reid are sitting with unfavorable ratings larger than their favorable ratings. Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who would be crushed if this year’s political environment resembled that of the 2006 or 2008 cycle, is running even or ahead of his potential Democratic opponents, and Democratic prospects over the past year have deteriorated in Ohio and Missouri.

Polling in North Carolina is particularly instructive. Recent surveys continue to show roughly equal numbers of respondents approving and disapproving of the job Sen. Richard Burr (R) is doing. But even with those mediocre numbers, Burr is holding clear (if unintimidating) leads over his potential general election opponents.

The bottom line on all of this seems pretty clear: Voters are not enamored of incumbents of either party, and GOP incumbents or “establishment” candidates facing strong “outsider” primary opponents could be in for more rough sledding than they would normally need to expect.

But when the general election rolls around, unless there is a significant change in the national mood, voter dissatisfaction will be aimed overwhelmingly at the candidates of one party. And that is why Democratic insiders are privately raising their own estimates of party losses.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on January 25, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

What a Difference a Year Makes: the 2010 Senate Outlook

By Stuart Rothenberg

As “Saturday Night Live” character Emily Litella (played by the late Gilda Radner) would say, “Never mind.”

Eleven months ago, still in the shadow of Barack Obama’s presidential victory over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Democrats looked likely to gain anywhere from two to as many as five additional Senate seats.

Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) was in trouble, while GOP open seats in Florida and Missouri were clearly at risk. Doubts about the prospects of at least four other Republican incumbents — North Carolina’s Richard Burr, New Hampshire’s Judd Gregg, Louisiana’s David Vitter and Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter (who has since switched parties) — ranged from uncertain to unsettling for party strategists. And that was before Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) announced he would not run again.

But since then, GOP recruiting successes and a change in the national political environment have shifted the outlook for next year’s Senate contests. Suddenly, Democratic seats started to look more and more vulnerable.

As 2009 draws to a close, Democrats now could lose seats, a dramatic change from January that could end the party’s 60-seat majority in less than two years. And GOP gains could be large enough to sink any major Democratic initiatives not passed before Congress adjourns for the midterm elections.

The national Republican brand shows no signs of improving dramatically, but polling conducted in a number of the states with Senate contests next year shows GOP candidates doing better in hypothetical matchups recently than they were a few months earlier.

In Arkansas, for example, a Nov. 30-Dec. 2 Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos (D) showed Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) with a single point advantage over state Sen. Gilbert Baker, the apparent favorite for the GOP nomination. In early September, Lincoln had a much more substantial 44 percent to 37 percent advantage over Baker in another Daily Kos survey.

In Connecticut, a Nov. 3-8 Quinnipiac University poll showed former Rep. Rob Simmons, one of two serious contenders for the Republican Senate nomination, leading Sen. Chris Dodd (D) by 11 points, a larger lead than Simmons had in September (5 points), in July (9 points) or in May (6 points).

In New Hampshire, a Sept. 25-Oct. 2 University of New Hampshire survey found former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, probably the favorite for the GOP Senate nomination, leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 7 points (40 percent to 33 percent), while a June 24-July 1 UNH poll had Ayotte up by 4 points, 39 percent to 35 percent.

In Ohio, a Nov. 5-9 Quinnipiac poll found former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 39 percent to 36 percent in a very competitive Senate trial heat pitting the two primary frontrunners against each other. In a Jan. 29-Feb. 2 Quinnipiac survey, Fisher held a commanding 42 percent to 27 percent advantage over Portman.

You can certainly quibble with any of these surveys or note that in some cases the movement is small, but the trend appears to be clear.

Other races, where there hasn’t been such movement, remain tight, with the race a statistical dead heat (in Missouri, for example), or with the Republican nominee holding a narrow advantage in most polling (including Kentucky, North Carolina, Illinois and Louisiana).

And in some contests, where there hasn’t been enough independent polling (or the same ballot tests repeated over time), Republicans look to be in much better shape than they ever could have hoped. Colorado is a good example, as is Pennsylvania.

Delaware remains an excellent GOP opportunity, and until Attorney General Beau Biden (D) actually announces that he will take on Rep. Mike Castle (R) in the open-seat Senate race, Democrats have to be at least a wee bit nervous.

Finally, I am struck how much Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) ballot test numbers resemble those of former Sens. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) and John Sununu (R-N.H.), as well as soon-to-be-former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D). All three, of course, lost re-election bids.

Since a late July GOP poll, Reid has not exceeded 43 percent in a ballot test against a potential opponent, and he has generally drawn around 41 percent of the vote against his two most likely Republican challengers. His last lead was in a late November 2008 Daily Kos poll in which he had a 46 percent to 40 percent advantage over former Rep. Jon Porter (R), who has since taken himself out of consideration.

The overall shift in the psychology of the cycle may keep Democrats on the defensive and help Republican fundraising. And GOP nominees could well benefit from the fact that late tossups often break to one party, not evenly between the two parties.

A little more than four months ago, I wrote in this space (“Sizing Up the 2010 Senate Contests in the Summer of 2009,” Aug. 3) that for the first time this year I could “imagine a scenario where Democrats do not gain seats in 2010.” That has changed again, so that Republican Senate gains are now looking likely.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on December 14, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

30-Somethings Aim for Aging Senate

By Nathan Gonzales

Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) was 4 years old when Rep. Mike Castle (R) was elected lieutenant governor of Delaware. But come 2011 the two men could serve together in the Senate.

Giannoulias, 33, is one of a handful of young candidates running to become a member of what is now the oldest — in terms of average age — Senate in history. Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R), 37, and former Florida state Speaker Marco Rubio (R), 38, are among the other under-40 Senate candidates whose 2010 bids have gained some national attention.

But while next year’s midterm electorate is likely to be older than in a presidential year, there’s no indication that being a younger candidate will be an obstacle for any of the 30-something crowd running.

“No one has said, ‘You’re too young to be a Senator,’” Grayson told Roll Call.

Indeed, it will be difficult to take issue with the secretary of state’s youth and inexperience because he’s in the middle of his second term in statewide office and the other three main candidates in the race aren’t that much older than he is.

Giannoulias and Rubio aren’t political newcomers either. The Illinois Democrat was elected statewide in 2006 at the age of 30 while Rubio was first elected to the state House when he was 29 and was Speaker by age 35.

With their political backgrounds, Giannoulias, Rubio and Grayson are in good company. Nine current Senators were elected before the age of 40 and all of them had previous experience in elected office.

Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) and Max Baucus (D-Mont.) all served in the House. Sens. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) held statewide office, and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) served in the state Legislature.

Then-Chittenden County State’s Attorney Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) was elected to the Senate in 1974, before Giannoulias was even born. Leahy was elected at 34, the youngest current Senator at swearing-in.

Until this year, that distinction was held by now-Vice President Joseph Biden, who was elected to the Senate from Delaware at age 29 and turned 30 before being sworn in in January 1973.

The late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) was elected to the chamber at age 30. In fact, the governor of the Bay State appointed a placeholder after Sen. John F. Kennedy (D-Mass.) was elected president because Ted Kennedy was then too young to serve.

According to the Senate Historical Office, the average age of Senators at the beginning of the 111th Congress was 62.7 years. The average age of Senators in the 1st Congress was 47 and stayed in the 40s for all but three of the first 30 Congresses. More recently, the average age of Senators has increased steadily every Congress over the past decade, and the last three Congresses have been the chamber’s oldest.

This cycle’s crop of young Senate candidates is balanced out by some political veterans such as former Association of Trial Lawyers of America President Roxanne Conlin (D), 65, who is running in Iowa, and Castle, 70, who is running in Delaware. He’ll likely face state Attorney General Beau Biden (D), 40, who is spending time with his family after coming home from active duty in Iraq before making an official decision.

For younger candidates, the greatest challenge may be balancing life on the campaign trail with their young families.

“With a wife and four children at home, running for Senate can be especially tough,” explained Rubio. “When it’s 11:30 at night and there are two hours left on the drive home, sometimes it’s difficult.”

He added: “But I remind myself that I’m running to be a voice for my children and their generation.”

Grayson echoed those sentiments.

“The challenging part is that I’m away from them a lot,” Grayson said about his two young children. “But they’re able to do more in this campaign because they’re older. It’s fun having them on the trail in the parades.”

Grayson believes his age is an asset because he’s more familiar with the technology of the day than the average Senate candidate and better able to communicate with college students and young professionals. “I have the ability to relate to them because not too long ago, that was me,” Grayson said.

Neither Rubio nor Giannoulias nor Grayson is guaranteed election next year. All of them face competitive primaries and general elections, but their age isn’t likely to be their downfall should they come up short.

If the most recent presidential contests are any indication, the American electorate isn’t turned off by youth. The younger candidate has won four out of the last five races, and the last three presidents have come into office at fairly young ages: Bill Clinton was 46, George W. Bush was 54, and Barack Obama was 47 when first elected.


This story first appeared in Roll Call on November 30, 2009 and on CQPolitics.com on November 28, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Kentucky Senate & Ohio 12

The October 2, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of the introduction to this edition:

Kentucky Senate: That’s What He Said
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Open seats are usually tougher to defend for the incumbent party, but in the case of Kentucky in 2010, Republican strategists are more than happy to start with a clean slate.

Almost immediately after Sen. Jim Bunning (R) narrowly won a second term in 2004, Democrats started thinking about his next race. A number of top elected officials eyed the contest, but the Democratic field narrowed to state Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, whom Bunning defeated five years ago. Subscribers get the full story in the print edition of the newsletter.


Ohio 12: A Day Late and a Dollar Short?

Even Democrat Paula Brooks’s political foes see her as a formidable candidate. But many of them think that she may have chosen the wrong district and the wrong cycle to run for Congress.

Early last cycle, the Democrat explored a run in the open 15th District race. She eventually deferred to fellow Franklin County commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D), who won the general election at a time when Democrats had the wind at their backs.

Now Brooks is running in the neighboring 12th District, but she’ll likely face a dramatically different environment in the mid-term election, and she’ll have to knock off incumbent Cong. Pat Tiberi (R) to get to Congress. Subscribers get the full story in the print edition of the newsletter.

Sizing Up the 2010 Senate Contests in the Summer of 2009

By Stuart Rothenberg

Six months ago, the 2010 Senate battlefield looked relatively bare, with a few obvious skirmishes mostly in states with GOP incumbents. Three months later, the outlook had brightened dramatically for Democrats, largely the result of a number of GOP retirements and solid Democratic recruiting on those open seats.

But now, as the dog days of summer begin, the landscape has shifted again, this time improving significantly for Republicans.

Democrats no longer have the momentum they once possessed. Even more important, signs of some Democratic vulnerability have appeared, giving the National Republican Senatorial Committee opportunities to shoot at, rather than forcing it to play an entirely defensive game, as it has the past two cycles.

Fifteen months before the midterms, Democrats have major problems in two states — Illinois and Connecticut — while a third, Nevada, remains a potential headache. Republicans, on the other hand, have serious vulnerabilities in four states — Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio — and potential problems in two others. But of late, even those Republican vulnerabilities look less daunting than they once did.

The announcement by Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) that she will seek re-election rather than run for the Senate (or governor) immediately boosted Republican prospects in what remains a very difficult state for the GOP. But Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) should be a formidable candidate, while Democrats have a field that is less than intimidating.

And in Connecticut, veteran Sen. Chris Dodd (D) has aired multiple TV ads in an attempt to remind Constitution State voters what he has accomplished and what he stands for — an open acknowledgment that he has work to do to repair his image. Republicans now worry that Dodd, who just announced he will have surgery for prostate cancer, will retire rather than seek re-election, thereby damaging their prospects of winning the seat.

Democrats have two formidable candidates in Kentucky, while Republicans recently received a gift from Sen. Jim Bunning (R) when the endangered two-term incumbent announced that he would not seek a third term. That means Secretary of State Trey Grayson will likely be the GOP nominee, dramatically increasing the chances that Republicans can retain the seat.

Former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) is moving toward a Senate bid in the Granite State’s open-seat contest, and while she is not yet a proven campaigner, insiders who know her speak effusively about her abilities and appeal. Democrats once viewed their likely nominee, Rep. Paul Hodes, as a solid favorite to win the seat, but the race now looks like a tossup, at best, for Democrats.

Meanwhile President Barack Obama’s sliding popularity is at least a troubling sign for Democrats in both Missouri and Ohio, where Republican Senate candidates may benefit from the public’s growing concerns about federal spending, possible tax hikes and bigger government.

Republicans still lack a top-tier challenger to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), and Sen. John Ensign’s (R-Nev.) recent personal troubles certainly don’t boost Republican prospects next year. Still, as the president’s point man in the Senate, Reid simply makes himself a juicy target in the midterm elections.

Democrats have potential opportunities in North Carolina and Louisiana, but they still have work to do in both. The party has not yet recruited a serious threat to Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), and while Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) is widely rumored to be leaning toward a challenge to Sen. David Vitter (R), the state’s fundamentals and the midterm environment raise questions about the viability of the challenge.

Republicans have three longer-shot opportunities that shouldn’t yet be completely discounted — Arkansas, Colorado and Pennsylvania — though in each case the Democratic incumbent has a considerable advantage. Pennsylvania, in particular, is intriguing, since a truly nasty Democratic primary seems likely and the GOP nominee, former Rep. Pat Toomey, is not without appeal.

Eleven Republican and 12 Democratic Senate seats up next year now look safe. But if Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) decides to run for the Senate, as some GOP insiders now believe he will, another of those safe Democratic seats suddenly becomes a tossup.

Republicans would be wise not to celebrate just yet. Their diminished vulnerability is, in part, the result of Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s leaving the GOP, which cost them a seat that they probably were going to lose next year. And with Democrats controlling 60 of the Senate’s 100 seats going into next year’s elections, any additional Republican losses would add to the party’s existing woes.

The widely expected resignation of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) in the fall, which will lead to a special election in the first half of 2010, also creates some uncertainty. While Republicans will have a strong nominee and the NRSC will spend what it takes to hold the seat, the special election is at least a major distraction for the national GOP.

If politics is about momentum and message, then the outlook for ’10 has changed considerably over the past couple of months. Democrats still have a wealth of opportunities and some advantages, but Republicans now have momentum and an improving issue mix. For the first time this cycle, I can imagine a scenario where Democrats do not gain Senate seats in 2010.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on August 3, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Ohio River Valley Lacks Competition

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Three years ago, the Ohio River Valley was the epicenter of the battle for control of Congress. But in just two election cycles, the long swath of Republican territory has moved from red to blue to virtually uncompetitive on the Congressional level.

Inspired by a spring 2006 column by Roll Call contributing writer Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call alumni Chris Cillizza and Jim VandeHei of the Washington Post embarked on the “Ohio River Ramble” that fall, posting dispatches from nine contiguous and competitive districts that run from Evansville, Ind., to Wheeling, W.Va.

At the time, Republicans held seven of the nine districts, and George W. Bush carried all but one (Kentucky’s 3rd) in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. But the competitive nature of the races and the fact that the GOP was playing defense foreshadowed the Democratic tidal wave that was about to hit.

Now, Republicans control only two of the nine seats. And with few recruits and more limited resources, only one of the districts even looks competitive in 2010 at this point.

There has been plenty of attention paid to the extinction of House Republicans in the Northeast. But if the GOP is going to win back the majority anytime soon — as House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) was the latest to predict — it’s difficult to see the party gaining 41 seats without making significant inroads in Middle America territory such as the Ohio River Valley.

Republicans are actively recruiting in Ohio’s 18th district, but the party has struggled to find a top-notch candidate ever since then-Rep. Bob Ney (R) pleaded guilty to corruption-related charges and left Congress under a cloud of scandal in November 2006. Rep. Zack Space (D), won the open-seat race to succeed Ney and then easily disposed of his little-known GOP opponent in 2008.

“Republicans aren’t going to take back the majority without this district,” one GOP operative said about Ohio’s 18th. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won there with 52 percent in 2008, and Bush won 57 percent in 2004 and 55 percent in 2000.

The Ohio River territory demonstrates that developing a list of targets is much more sophisticated than matching a district’s presidential preference against the current Member’s party identification. If it were that simple, Republicans would clearly have more opportunities to go on offense in the region, since McCain carried all but two of the nine districts — Ohio’s 1st and Kentucky’s 3rd.

Whether it’s the current political environment, the strength of the incumbent or the threat of losing the seat in two years because of reapportionment and redistricting, Republicans have simply come up empty in terms of recruiting in many of these districts. Currently, GOP strategists are most excited about the opportunity to reclaim Ohio’s 1st district, where President Barack Obama won by 11 points but former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is running to reclaim the seat that he lost in 2008.

Chabot was one of the Republicans’ few success stories in the area in 2006, as he narrowly held on to win re-election.

In 2006, Democrats won four of the seven GOP-held seats in the region as part of their 30-seat pickup nationwide.

Meanwhile, Republicans were unable to capitalize on the flurry of ethical questions surrounding Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) at the time, and the veteran lawmaker won re-election.

The GOP also missed an opportunity when then-state Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) failed to gather 50 valid signatures to qualify for the primary ballot in Ohio's 6th district open-seat race. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee stepped in to help Wilson win the primary as a write-in candidate and then win the general, and he was re-elected with 62 percent.

Republican Mike Sodrel and Democrat Baron Hill faced off four consecutive times in Indiana’s 9th district. But after Hill defeated Sodrel by 5 points in 2006 and 20 points in 2008, Democrats are optimistic that he will have an easier road to re-election in 2010. And in the neighboring 8th district, now-Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) demolished then-Rep. John Hostettler (R) by 22 points in 2006 and then cruised to a 30-point win in 2008.

All four districts went for Bush twice and then McCain, yet now there is only a faint pulse of competitiveness.

“John McCain carried 49 districts that are currently represented by a Democrat,” National Republican Congressional Committee Communications Director Ken Spain said. “Our goal is to put a number of those seats in play and create new opportunities in places where we feel we have strong candidates looking at running.”

But a big part of the Republicans’ problem is the strength of the Democratic incumbents.

“The No. 1 factor is candidate quality,” said Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. “And we have really good Democratic candidates in those districts.” Yang works for Ellsworth and Hill, and also worked on state Sen. David Boswell’s (D) unsuccessful run in Kentucky’s 2nd district last year.

Republican recruitment prospects against Wilson, Ellsworth, Hill and Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) are dim, if not dormant. Republicans may find a candidate to run against Mollohan, who was unopposed in 2008.

“We may have a better opportunity in a more marginal district where the incumbent is soft,” admitted one GOP strategist, who also explained that the longer these incumbents go without serious challenges, the more difficult they will be to defeat in the future.

With multiple, inefficient media markets, advertising in the Ohio River Valley districts can be an expensive affair for the DCCC and the NRCC.

In 2006, the two campaign committees combined to spend more than $25 million in independent expenditures in the nine races. Two years later, the two parties spent less than $6 million in the same nine districts, as Republicans had less money and the races became less competitive. Even less money is likely to be spent in the region in 2010.

As the pendulum decidedly swung toward Democrats in the past two cycles, there have been a couple of bright spots for Republicans. Democrats have targeted Kentucky’s 2nd district twice, but then-Rep. Ron Lewis (R) turned back state Rep. Mike Weaver (D) in 2006, and now-Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) held the seat when Lewis retired in 2008.

Rep. Geoff Davis (R-Ky.) has solidified his position over the last three years in the 4th district. After losing his initial race to then-Rep. Ken Lucas (D) in 2002, Davis won the open-seat race two years later when Lucas retired. In 2006, Davis faced off against Lucas, but the Republican prevailed easily. Last cycle, Davis won with more than 60 percent of the vote, and he’s not at risk in 2010.

Republicans have also held Ohio’s 2nd district and West Virginia’s 2nd district despite Democratic attempts to target GOP Reps. Jean Schmidt and Shelley Moore Capito, respectively.

House Republicans have not made any one region their top priority in 2010, instead focusing on fielding a diverse crop of challengers and trying to regain strength across the country. It’s psychologically necessary for the morale of the party, according to one House GOP operative.

Still, many Republicans acknowledge they face a significant challenge overall.

“We have a problem everywhere,” one GOP strategist said.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on June 18, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

Polling in Perilous Territory

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Are Sens. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.), Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) or Richard Burr (R-N.C.) this cycle’s Rick Santorum?

The former Pennsylvania Senator began his 2006 re-election race down in the polls and never recovered. And while Bunning, Dodd and Burr have something in common with Santorum’s early standing, each hopes for a different outcome.

Whether it’s trailing in polls from the get-go, as was the case for Santorum and then-Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) in 2008, or leading but at the mid-40 percent mark in ballot tests like then-Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.), all three recent cases demonstrated the difficulty for vulnerable Senators to significantly improve their standing over the course of a campaign.

Santorum trailed now-Sen. Bob Casey (D) 44 percent to 43 percent in a March 2005 Keystone poll and by a wider 49 percent to 35 percent margin in an April 2005 Quinnipiac University survey. Overall,

Santorum never led over the course of two years and lost on Election Day, 59 percent to 41 percent.

In New Hampshire last cycle, Sununu trailed former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 44 percent to 34 percent in a March 2007 American Research Group survey and trailed in all but one of 35 public polls over the course of the campaign, never topping 45 percent. He lost 52 percent to 45 percent on Election Day.

Of course, each Senate race has some unique characteristics, but Bunning, Dodd and Burr start their re-elections from a position of fundamental weakness.

Bunning’s vulnerability has been known since his narrow victory in 2004. An early Research 2000 survey in February 2009 for the liberal Daily Kos Web site showed Bunning defeating four potential Democratic opponents but still in the mid-40s on the ballot tests. Two months later, the former Hall of Fame pitcher trailed all four opponents and polled in the low to mid-30s, according to a survey by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

Dodd’s vulnerability started with headlines and then was realized when a Quinnipiac poll in February showed that 51 percent of Connecticut voters would probably not or definitely not vote to re-elect the Democrat and that more people disapproved (48 percent) than approved (41 percent) of the job that he is doing.

A month later, Quinnipiac showed Dodd in a dead heat with former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), 43 percent to 42 percent. Later in March, a Research 2000 poll had slightly better news, with Dodd besting Simmons 45 percent to 40 percent.

“Their numbers are so bad that it goes well beyond the environment,” said one GOP strategist speaking on the condition of anonymity so that he could speak freely about Dodd and Bunning.

“It doesn’t matter if Obama finds a cure for cancer, Dodd is not coming back to the U.S. Senate,” he added, while predicting that Bunning would lose, too.

In North Carolina, Burr has consistently polled between 37 percent and 46 percent in ballot tests conducted this year by the PPP, which is based in the state. The Republican has led some potential Democratic opponents and trailed state Attorney General Roy Cooper, the party’s top prospect who has yet to announce his intentions. But Burr’s standing is more important than the margin.

Last cycle, Democrats hypothesized that Smith had an electoral ceiling in the mid-40s, and that’s why they weren’t discouraged even when their February 2007 survey showed him ahead of Rep. Peter DeFazio (D) 42 percent to 38 percent. Smith consistently polled in the low 40s throughout the race and received 46 percent on Election Day.

Supporters of Dodd and Burr maintain that the incumbents’ initial numbers are soft because they are still undefined in the voters’ minds.

Considering the significant recent population growth of North Carolina, it’s an easier argument for Burr to make after one term in office. But that doesn’t make him any less vulnerable. He had an extremely low 37 percent favorable/13 percent unfavorable rating in a mid-March poll for the Civitas Institute (R). Plus, he’s running in a tossup state that President Barack Obama carried very narrowly.

For Dodd, it’s much tougher to redefine himself after representing the state for almost three decades. He had 91 percent name identification in Quinnipiac’s March poll (46 percent favorable/45 percent unfavorable) and 87 percent name identification in the March survey by Research 2000 (47 percent favorable/40 percent unfavorable).

In the spring of the year before their losses, Santorum’s name identification was 60 percent while Sununu was closer to 70 percent.

Vulnerable incumbents tend to overestimate their ability to define their race as a choice between two candidates. This cycle, Democrats will attempt to tie Simmons to former President George W. Bush, former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, while Republicans will try to use Cooper’s record against him and declare whomever winds up the Democratic nominee in Kentucky too liberal for the state.

But it doesn’t always work. In the previous cycle, Sununu was confident that the race would shift once he refocused voters on Shaheen’s record as governor — the message that helped him defeat her six years earlier. Santorum, Sununu and Smith spent a combined $45 million trying to reframe their races to no avail.

Bunning and Dodd will likely watch the other party compete in a competitive primary, when Santorum and Sununu’s challengers had clear paths to the nomination. But that doesn’t guarantee success either, since the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee helped drag now-Sen. Jeff Merkley (Ore.) through the primary last cycle before he knocked off Smith.

But while Santorum, Sununu and Smith ran in states trending against them, Bunning and Dodd are running for re-election in more favorable territory. Obama carried Connecticut with 61 percent and Oregon with 57 percent, while Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried Kentucky with 58 percent.

Democrats believe this is most significant for Dodd, who simply needs to remind Democratic voters about the good things that the Senator has done for them. “I would much rather have to win back Democrats than have to win over Republicans,” Dodd campaign manager Jay Howser said.

And while Santorum and Sununu ran into a political headwind, next year’s political environment is uncertain. “Political die is not cast yet on next year’s election,” said one GOP strategist familiar with Burr’s race.

Still, using recent history as a guide, the longer an incumbent is mired at less than 50 percent, the more difficult it becomes to break out on Election Day.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on April 23, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

The Most Vulnerable Senator Up for Re-Election in 2010?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Move over, Jim Bunning. You have company.

Veteran Sen. Chris Dodd (D) should not be vulnerable in his home state of Connecticut. As a longtime officeholder in a reliably Democratic state and the chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, Dodd should have the stature, political base and access to resources to dissuade even the most ambitious of Republicans from challenging him for re-election.

But the darkening cloud that is growing over the Senator’s head has changed Dodd’s prospects quickly, and the signs already are clear that he’ll have the fight of his life next year when he seeks his sixth consecutive term in the Senate.

Coverage of Dodd’s special treatment from lender Countrywide Financial — and his designation as a “friend of Angelo” — has blanketed local media, severely damaging Dodd’s standing in a state where Democrats hold better than 2-1 majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature, hold all of the Congressional seats and haven’t lost a U.S. Senate race since 1986.

Only one Republican, Lowell Weicker, has won a Senate race in the Constitution State since Prescott Bush did so in 1956. (Bush defeated Democrat Thomas Dodd, the current Senator’s father.)

Chris Dodd has had no serious tests since he coasted to victory in an open-seat House race in the very Democratic year of 1974. Dodd’s closest race since then was his first bid for Senate, in 1980, which he won by “only” 13 points over former New York Sen. Jim Buckley (R). Buckley had lost re-election in the Empire State in 1976 and figured that he might as well run for the Senate in neighboring Connecticut.

But this cycle is shaping up very differently. A March 26-28 Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters showed Dodd with a 30 percent favorable/58 percent unfavorable rating and his job approval at 33 percent approve/58 percent disapprove. Four in 10 Democrats disapproved of his job performance.

More troubling, he was 16 points behind Republican opponent Rob Simmons, a well-regarded former Member from eastern Connecticut who was overwhelmed in the Democratic wave of 2006. Dodd was losing independents by more than 2-1, and Simmons was winning more than 1 in 4 Democrats.

The poll also showed Dodd trailing Waterbury state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, who recently entered the race, and former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, who is considering his options. Caligiuri held a 4-point lead over Dodd even though 88 percent of those responding hadn’t heard enough about the state lawmaker to have an opinion of him.

Dodd’s position now is an excellent example of how quickly things can change. Until the Countrywide Financial story broke last summer, Dodd’s chairmanship looked like a political asset. But now it is a double-edged sword, causing more light to be shined on him and his dealings with the financial community and exposing him to criticism that creates electoral problems for him back home.

Dodd, it should be noted, insists he has done nothing wrong and never knew he was receiving special treatment from Countywide (an assertion that some have disputed).

But in addition to his Countrywide problems, the Senator has also been forced to return contributions from R. Allen Stanford, a financier accused of defrauding investors, and admitted that he had been involved in the process that ultimately stripped from the stimulus bill a provision that would have limited bonuses American International Group executives eventually received.

The Senator said that his admission about his role in modifying the bill (at the request of Treasury Department officials) did not amount to a reversal of his initial explanation, but local and national media certainly played it as a switch.

To make things worse, Dodd’s wife was also on the board of directors of IPC Holdings, a Bermuda-based insurance company controlled by AIG.

Finally, and not insignificantly, Dodd riled some Connecticut voters when he moved his family to Iowa during the 2008 presidential contest, even going so far as to enroll his eldest daughter in a Des Moines kindergarten.

All of that adds up to political baggage that would fill one of Dodd’s mortgaged homes.

But Republicans ought to be realistic about their chances of ousting the Senator. Dodd is an incumbent who can raise more money than most candidates would ever need, and his Democratic label is a significant asset in the state.

Moreover, while the Senator has already hired an experienced campaign manager, at some point later this year thoughts of retirement will cross his mind — if his prospects look as bad as they now do. If he were to decide against seeking re-election, Democrats would likely find a strong candidate to replace him, reducing the GOP’s chances in the race.

Further, Republicans are headed to a two-way or three-way primary, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already started attacking Simmons. A Senate bid would be a big step up for Caligiuri.

The primary, which could be expensive, both complicates GOP prospects and reflects Dodd’s vulnerability. You can be sure that Simmons and Caligiuri wouldn’t be in the race if Dodd had not been damaged by recent news stories and events.

It seems as if every election cycle one supposedly safe Senator up for re-election somehow finds himself in an unexpectedly difficult race. In 2004, it was Bunning. In 2006, it was Sen. George Allen (R-Va.). Last year, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) was forced into a runoff. It already looks as if Chris Dodd will join that select club next year.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on April 6, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

National Mood Isn't Always Visible on the Ground

By Stuart Rothenberg

Polls show that the nation’s political winds are not changing. President Barack Obama is up, while Republicans are down — and spending more time on trivial matters such as Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele than on rebuilding their brand.

The past couple of months have also seen some significant campaign developments that are affecting the two parties’ outlooks for 2009 and 2010 — not always as expected.

The special election in New York’s 20th district has become a barnburner, with Republican Jim Tedisco holding only the slightest (and statistically insignificant) advantage over Democrat Scott Murphy in the fast-approaching March 31 special election. For Republicans, the special election to replace appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) looks to be repeating a troubling pattern.

Even though the district leans Republican, soft GOP voters who like Obama are not embracing Tedisco. Some have gravitated to Murphy, who is young, has money to put into the race and has no legislative record, while others are undecided.

Tedisco has served in the state Assembly for years, and that makes him easily branded as a “typical politician,” which is exactly what a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee TV ad calls him.

One GOP insider whom I spoke with recently said the race “doesn’t look good,” in part because Murphy has been “rolling up the score” among independents. But strategists from both parties expect a close finish, and turnout, as is often the case in special elections, will determine the winner. A loss for Republicans would be demoralizing, but it could happen.

At the same time that Democratic prospects in the New York special election are brightening, the party’s prospects in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections later this year are dimming.

Gov. Jon Corzine (D) is now running behind former U.S. attorney Chris Christie, the GOP’s likely nominee, in the Garden State, and tough economic conditions, which are not likely to improve in the short run, are forcing Corzine to make unappealing choices.

In Virginia, the crowded race for the Democratic nomination is allowing former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell to run free and clear, and to define himself.

Six months down the road, these two state races could look very different, but right now it appears unlikely that Democrats can retain both governorships. That would give Republicans something to crow about in November, and a sweep would certainly boost the GOP mood across the country heading into 2010.

Republicans caught a break in Kansas when Obama selected Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) for his Cabinet. Her confirmation will virtually guarantee that Republicans will hold the open Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) in order to run for governor.

In Connecticut, local media continue to raise questions about Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd’s past financial arrangements, and former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) is now widely expected to enter the Senate race against him.

Any Senate contest in the Nutmeg State is difficult for the GOP, and Dodd is a formidable foe, even with his depressed poll numbers. Still, this Senate contest wasn’t expected to be worth watching, so Dodd’s electoral problems are a welcome windfall for Republicans.

In Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is more likely than not to jump into the Senate race.

Normally, the governor’s office in almost any state is seen as a refuge from the partisanship of Capitol Hill. But the Sunshine State faces the same fiscal problems that other states do, and the next governor will have to make unpopular decisions. That might make the Senate look relatively appealing to Crist.

In any case, Democratic recruiting for the state’s Senate race has, at least so far, not been all that intimidating, leaving Republicans feeling better about their prospects of retaining retiring Sen. Mel Martinez’s open seat.

Ohio looks to be another dogfight, but the race took an unfortunate turn for Democrats when both Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner decided to seek the Democratic nomination. The primary could enhance the chances of former Rep. Rob Portman, the likely GOP Senate nominee.

While recent developments have caused Democrats a few problems, the party has reason to feel increasingly confident about its chances of taking open Senate seats in Missouri and New Hampshire.

The prospect of a bitter GOP primary in Missouri between Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman — with the winner facing Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) — is making GOP strategists nervous. Blunt has the backing of most insiders, but given his years in the House leadership and the problems that his son, Matt, had as governor, the conservative Steelman’s “outsider” message of reform might resonate.

Democratic prospects in Kentucky also are bright now, as GOP efforts to ease Sen. Jim Bunning (R) out of the race have backfired. With Democrats likely to nominate either Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo or state Attorney General Jack Conway for the Senate contest, GOP prospects of retaining the Bunning seat are not good.

In North Carolina, state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) seems genuinely interested in challenging Sen. Richard Burr (R). Burr should run a far better race than then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) ran last cycle, and the midterm electorate should not be as favorable for Cooper as it was for now-Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.). Still, a Burr-Cooper contest would be a titanic struggle, giving Senate Democrats another serious opportunity.

Finally, the Pennsylvania Senate race looks messier each day. Conservative Pat Toomey now seems likely to repeat his 2004 primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (R), and Specter’s chances of surviving this time are worse than they were six years ago, when he won renomination with 50.8 percent.

Specter’s chances for winning a primary would be improved, of course, in a multicandidate race, and conservative, anti-abortion activist Peg Luksik said last week that she’s getting into the GOP contest. Any votes she gets almost certainly would be anti-Specter voters peeled away from Toomey.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on March 16, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

2010 Senate Races: Another Tough Cycle For the Republicans

By Stuart Rothenberg

It’s been less than three months since voters went to the polls, but the 2010 Senate cycle is off to one of the fastest starts in memory.

After being pummeled two cycles in a row — losing six seats in 2006 and what looks like eight seats in 2008 — Senate Republicans face another challenging cycle. Even though they hold just 41 Senate seats, they are defending 19 of the 36 Senate seats that will be on the ballot next year.

The 2010 class includes 19 GOP-held seats, while the 2012 class has just nine and 2014 has only 13.

Democrats begin with at least half a dozen good opportunities, depending on candidate recruitment and how President Barack Obama performs over the next two years.

While the GOP remains battered, Democrats are likely to have a substantial financial advantage, and four incumbent Republican Senators have already announced they won’t seek re-election. Still, the end of the Bush administration and complete Democratic control of the nation’s capital could well make things a bit tougher for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee this cycle than they have been over the past four years.

Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning (R), a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame and the first pitcher to win 100 games and record 1,000 strikeouts in both leagues, faces a very difficult race. Three high-profile Democratic statewide officials are looking at a possible challenge, and even GOP insiders are worried about Bunning’s strength after his surprisingly narrow 2004 victory against a lightly regarded challenger who is now the state’s lieutenant governor.

Bunning, who pitched no-hitters in both leagues (including a perfect game for the Philadelphia Phillies against the New York Mets on Father’s Day in 1964), says he is going to run for a third term. But he has plenty of time to reconsider that decision, and the 78-year-old conservative could ultimately conclude that retirement is an appealing option. That decision would not upset party strategists whose first priority is holding the seat.

All four of the GOP’s open seats could be battlegrounds, with the safest one on paper, Kansas, actually becoming the most difficult one for Republicans if outgoing Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) opts to make the race. Rep. Jerry Moran (R) is already running and Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) is looking at entering the race — either one would be a credible contender.

The retirements of Sens. Kit Bond (Mo.), Mel Martinez (Fla.) and George Voinovich (Ohio) surely enhance the DSCC’s chances of adding to its 59 seats (provided Democrat Al Franken is eventually seated as the Senator from Minnesota), but the GOP will not give up those seats readily.

Former Rep. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who most recently served as director of the Office of Management and Budget and was also the U.S. trade representative, is running in Ohio and gives the National Republican Senatorial Committee a solid candidate. While the DSCC is already portraying him as the “architect” of the Bush administration’s economic policies, Portman’s mainstream conservatism should fit the state well.

A number of Democrats are looking at the race, including Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Rep. Tim Ryan, and it’s virtually certain that the DSCC will have a strong nominee to support financially.

In Missouri, GOP Rep. Roy Blunt is said to be eyeing a possible Senate race, but other Republicans are mentioned as well, including former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and former Sen. Jim Talent. Party insiders seem inclined to line up behind Blunt, a former secretary of state, if he announces his candidacy.

On the Democratic side, all eyes are on Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, daughter of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan (D) and former Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-Mo.). State Attorney General Chris Koster (D) receives mention as well.

In Florida, both parties could see crowded primaries now that former Gov. Jeb Bush (R) and state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D) have announced they will take a pass on the Senate contest.

On the GOP side, former state Speaker Marco Rubio, Attorney General Bill McCollum and a handful of Republican House Members, including Rep. Connie Mack IV, are mentioned. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) has already jumped in the race, and least two other Congressional Democrats and the state Senate Minority Leader are said to be mulling bids. Just don’t pay too much attention to the early polling in that state.

After those contests, the focus turns to candidate recruitment against incumbents, with Sens. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) and David Vitter (R-La.) topping the list of possible Democratic targets and with Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) topping the NRSC’s list.

There are a few other seats that are worth mentioning. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is serving his fifth term, so Democrats will try to recruit a strong challenger, if only to try to encourage him to consider retirement.

Some observers regard the Illinois Senate seat to which Ronald Burris (D) was just appointed as a tossup. I don’t. I see it as clearly favoring Democrats.

While there are a number of scenarios that would put that seat into play, each would require a series of developments that would enhance GOP prospects — from the candidacy of Rep. Mark Kirk (R) to Burris running for re-election and state voters seeing the Senate race as a referendum on embattled Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) and state Democratic corruption.

While all of that is possible, it strikes me as far too premature to assume that all of the dominos will fall the GOP’s way in a state that has become reliably Democratic.

Democrats are well-positioned to add to their numbers in the Senate in next year’s elections. But how the public’s mood evolves during the next 20 months will tell us the extent of that opportunity, or whether it even exists.

Correction: In the Jan. 22 edition of my column, I misidentified Henry Barbour. He, of course, is the nephew of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on January 26, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Kentucky Senate: Bunning - Mongiardo Trading Cards

Back in 2004, Dr. Daniel Mongiardo (D) took on Sen. Jim Bunning (R) and lost narrowly, 51%-49%. The Democratic challenger tried to spoof Bunning's Hall of Fame baseball career with a set of trading cards. Mongiardo, who is now Kentucky's lieutenant governor, just announced he will challenge Bunning again in 2010. Maybe we'll get a new set of cards out of it.

2004 Mongiardo-Bunning Trading Cards

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Politics & Governmen Presentations & Slid elections baseball

Kentucky Senate: Ratings Change Favors Democrats

Following the news that a SurveyUSA poll and a Louisville Courier-Journal survey of the Kentucky Senate race found Sen. Mitch McConnell and challenger Bruce Lunsford locked in a tight race, a third poll - this one not released - confirms the dead heat.

Because of that, we are moving this race from Clear Advantage for McConnell to Narrow Advantage for McConnell, and we would not argue with anyone who rated the contest as a Toss-Up.

Kentucky 2: DCCC to the Rescue

By Nathan L. Gonzales

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is exercising its financial muscle with television ads on behalf of a cash-strapped candidate in Kentucky’s 2nd district.

State Sen. David Boswell (D) has a similar political profile to southern Reps. Don Cazayoux (D-La.) and Travis Childers (D-Miss.), who were elected earlier this year in special elections. The main problem is that Boswell’s initial fundraising was startlingly low.

Two public polls showed Boswell leading the race, including a June 27-28 SurveyUSA poll that had the Democrat up 47 percent to 44 percent and Boswell’s own poll, conducted Aug. 23-25 by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, which had him ahead 41 percent to 33 percent.

But Boswell’s lead was considered soft by race observers because he is running for an open seat in a district that President Bush won by 31 points in 2004 and because he faced a significant cash disadvantage to his opponent, state Sen. Brett Guthrie (R).

The Republican raised $766,000 through June 30 with $661,000 in the bank through the second quarter. In comparison, Boswell had a mere $45,000 on hand after taking in $238,000 through the first six months of the year.

Although he was not prohibited from raising money during his legislative session, Boswell self-imposed a fundraising ban in coordination with the law for state races. Even still, he didn’t raise a lot of money for a supposed top-tier takeover opportunity. GOP Rep. Ron Lewis is vacating the seat.

Now, the Democrat has been added to the DCCC’s exploding “Red to Blue” list and estimates he’s taken in another quarter of a million dollars since the May 20 primary. But the best news may be the DCCC reservation of $840,000 worth of ads in the district, with the ads slated to begin at the end of the week.

The DCCC’s ads could be in critical in the expensive Louisville media market, where about three-fifths of the voters reside and where neither Boswell nor Guthrie is particularly well-known. The National Republican Congressional Committee has not reserved time in the district.

Boswell was significantly outspent in his unsuccessful run for lieutenant governor in 1987. His media consultant back then, David Axelrod (now chief strategist for Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama), told him he would need more money to get out of the primary against wealthier candidates.

Now, with the DCCC’s help, it looks like Boswell could win despite a cash disadvantage to Guthrie. But Boswell’s road is still tough, considering he will have to run well ahead of Obama at the top of the ticket because Kentucky was one of the Illinois Senator’s worst-performing states in the Democratic primaries.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on September 23, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Some Bellwether States Losing Their Status

By Nathan L. Gonzales

The presidential campaign of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has vowed to compete in all 50 states this fall. While he should perform better than Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in some traditionally Republican states, he’s not going to achieve a Reagan-esque 1984 sweep.

If he defeats Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Obama’s path to victory will be different from the most recent Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, who came from the South. And an Obama victory will likely jeopardize the bellwether status of some Southern states. Even so, some of the 11 traditional bellwethers remain.

Missouri. Arguably, the champion of all bellwethers, the Show Me State has chosen the presidential winner in each election since 1904, with the exception of 1956. This year, Missouri remains a battleground, and the two vice presidential nominees will face off in St. Louis for the official debate. An Aug. 13-17 Public Policy Polling survey showed McCain ahead 50 percent to 40 percent.

Ohio. One of the most hotly contested states in recent years, Ohio remains a significant battleground. The Buckeye State voted for Richard Nixon in 1960 and has gotten it right ever since. The McCain campaign would like to challenge in Michigan, but it can’t afford to lose Ohio. An Aug. 31-Sept. 2 CNN/Time poll had Obama leading 47 percent to 45 percent, and an Aug. 17-24 Quinnipiac University poll gave the Democrat a similarly narrow edge of 44 percent to 43 percent.

Florida. After the 2000 fiasco, Florida will always get a significant amount of attention. The state has only two knocks against it since 1960, voting for George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Nixon in 1960. An Aug. 25-26 Mason-Dixon poll showed Obama with a 45 percent to 44 percent lead, while Republican firm Strategic Vision (Aug. 22-24) and Quinnipiac University (Aug. 17-24) give McCain 7- and 4-point leads, respectively.

Nevada. Nevada has picked the presidential winner every time since 1960, except for 1976. According to an Aug. 24-26 CNN/Time poll, Obama led 49 percent to 44 percent in a state that is experiencing a tremendous amount of population growth.

New Mexico. Since 1960, voters in the Land of Enchantment have voted for the presidential winner, except 1976 and 2000. President Bush prevailed in 2004 in one of the closest races in the country. New Mexico should be a battleground once again, although an Aug. 24-26 CNN/Time poll showed Obama with a significant 13-point lead.

North Carolina. Tar Heel State voters went for George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996, but have a great presidential track record beyond that. Recent polls have shown McCain with a slight advantage — he had a 45 percent to 42 percent edge in an Aug. 20-23 Public Policy Polling survey — but he can’t take this one for granted. If Obama is on the verge of winning North Carolina, he’s probably already won Virginia and well on his way to the Oval Office.

Arkansas. Since 1960, the Natural State has voted for every presidential winner, except for 1968, when it was one of five states to go for third-party candidate George Wallace. Today, Arkansas is one of the last to receive attention from the Obama campaign, after losing the state 70 percent to 26 percent in the primary to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), the former first lady of Arkansas.

Kentucky. In 1960, the Bluegrass State went for Nixon, who lost to John F. Kennedy, but the state has supported the presidential winner ever since. Kentucky is another Southern state where Obama performed poorly in the primary (30 percent).

Tennessee. Obama did slightly better in the Volunteer State primary (41 percent). But the Democratic nominee is not expected to carry the state in the general election, even though Tennessee has picked the last 11 presidential winners.

Louisiana. This state has only gotten it wrong twice (1964 and 1968) at the presidential level since 1960. McCain is favored to carry the state this fall.

Delaware. The First State has a great track record for choosing the presidential winner since 1960. But Delaware is trending Democratic, voting for the unsuccessful Democratic nominee in the last two presidential elections, and the presence of native son Sen. Joseph Biden (D) on the ticket makes the state neither a battleground nor a bellwether this year.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on September 4, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Kentucky Senate: Lunsford Parts Ways with Media Consultant

With less than 100 days remaining until Election Day, Democrat Bruce Lunsford has parted ways with his media consultants, Struble Eichenbaum.

Lunsford, a wealthy businessman who is expected to invest millions of dollars of his own money into the campaign, was a late entry into the race against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R). He won a competitive Democratic primary on May 20 and immediately turned his sights on McConnell in what is expected to be a competitive but difficult challenge to the long time Republican lawmaker.

Struble Eichenbaum was part of the consulting team that helped Steve Beshear (D) knock off incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) in last year’s Kentucky gubernatorial race. Lunsford lost to Beshear in the primary, and was subsequently recruited to run against McConnell, in large part because of his personal wealth.

Fred Yang of Garin Hart Yang worked for Beshear, and against Lunsford, in 2007, but remains part of Lunsford’s Senate team.

Republicans remain extremely confident about McConnell’s chances, privately noting that they have plenty of ammunition against Lunsford.

For House Races Now, It’s All a Question of Money

By Stuart Rothenberg

It’s no longer the time for mere scenarios or fundraising polling memos. Now is the time for serious candidates to show they have the fundraising energy and prowess to run top-shelf campaigns.

The latest round of fundraising numbers shows that some Congressional hopefuls have established themselves as credible candidates, while others need to find an explanation for their weak totals.

The weakest showings? How about three of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “emerging races,” all of which might be migrating to a new DCCC submerging races category?

Kentucky 2nd district hopeful David Boswell was promoted by some Democrats as a strong contender for retiring Rep. Ron Lewis’ (R) open seat. Yes, said Democrats about the Owensboro-Bowling Green district, it’s conservative, but the Democratic state Senator is a good fit for it.

Well, Boswell’s June 30 cash-on-hand total of $45,000 should end that talk. Republican nominee Brett Guthrie’s $661,000 in the bank means that, barring a total turnaround of finances, this race is over.

A few weeks ago, I wrote favorably about Kathy Dahlkemper (D), who is taking on veteran incumbent Rep. Phil English (R) in Pennsylvania’s 3rd district. Dahlkemper had plenty of time and reason to haul in cash after her April 22 primary win, but instead she raised $203,000 in the quarter and ended June with a disappointing $128,000. English had $787,000 in the bank.

Dahlkemper has some personal money, and polling suggests that she’s very much still in the race. But her fundraising numbers are disappointing.

I’ve heard a bit of a buzz recently about Democrat Steve Sarvi’s challenge to Rep. John Kline in Minnesota’s 2nd district. After seeing that Sarvi raised $147,000 in the second quarter and ended June with $98,000 in the bank, I have to figure that buzz is the winding down of the battery in the Democrat’s electric razor rather than excitement about his prospects.

Incredibly, Sarvi’s campaign is bragging about the numbers. Here’s what the candidate’s Web site said: “The campaign’s 2nd Quarter numbers represent nearly a two-and-a-half fold increase on its previous quarter and a three-fold increase on its 4th Quarter 2007 results.” Translation: The campaign’s unimpressive second-quarter numbers weren’t as bad as its pathetic first-quarter numbers and its even worse fourth-quarter of 2007 numbers.

If there was any doubt about New York’s open 25th district, the June 30 numbers should end it. Republican Dale Sweetland is his party’s likely nominee, but with an anemic campaign bank account of $108,000 against Democrat Dan Maffei’s $962,000, this seat looks comfortably Democratic.

Elsewhere, El Tinklenberg (D) in Minnesota’s 6th district showed $225,000 in the bank to Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann’s $1.3 million.

Then there is the case of Larry Kissell in North Carolina’s 8th district, who is rapidly getting the reputation of being the Democrats’ John Hostettler. Hostettler, you may remember, is the former Republican Congressman who didn’t like raising money — so he didn’t. Every two years, the National Republican Congressional Committee had to bail out Hostettler by spending its cash on his re-election. Finally, in 2006, he lost. Some Republicans were less than upset.

Kissell, who lost narrowly last time and complained that he received little support from the DCCC in 2006 (which is true), promised to raise more money this time. The DCCC showed early interest in the race, no doubt to make up for its inactivity last time. But Kissell’s fundraising this time has been stunningly inadequate. He may still win, but not because of anything he has done in fundraising.

Not all poor June 30 cash-on-hand numbers are as bad as they seem. New Jersey Republicans Chris Myers (3rd district) and Leonard Lance (7th district) have bank accounts that are scary. But they both had to spend heavily to win primaries that took place in early June, and their general election fundraising has only now begun. Give them a full quarter to see what their cash looks like.

I’ve also heard some talk that state Sen. Don Cravins Jr. (D) might give Rep. Charles Boustany (R) a fight in Louisiana’s 7th district, but Cravins just decided he wanted to run, and his $104,000 in cash on hand isn’t enough to make the Republican give a second look to the challenger quite yet.

If some candidates merit identification for their weak fundraising, others deserve attention for their strong efforts.

Rep. Mark Kirk (R) showed more than $2.8 million in the bank on June 30, and his opponent in Illinois’ 10th district, Dan Seals (D), had $1.17 million on hand. Two New Jersey Democrats running for open seats, John Adler (3rd) and Linda Stender (7th) each had more than $1.2 million in the bank.

In Florida’s 21st district, incumbent Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) had more than $1.7 million on hand, while challenger Raul Martinez (D) showed more than $1 million in the bank. Washington 8th district Democratic challenger Darcy Burner had almost $1.25 million in the bank, and Virginia’s 11th district Republican Keith Fimian had $1 million on hand on June 30. And Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski showed more than $2.1 million on hand.

Of course, these are just a few of the strong fundraisers. There are many others. But in a year where there seems to be so much money, it is the underperformers who are the real story.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on July 21, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Kentucky Senate: Democrat to Announce 2010 Challenge to Bunning

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning (R) is about to pick up his first challenger, and his race is not for another 27 months.

Former U.S. Customs Agent Darlene Fitzgerald Price (D) is set to announce her candidacy for the Senate on Aug. 2. Price is also a former captain in the Army Military Police Corps and co-author of the 2006 book “BorderGate,” which “details her brave fight against corruption within the Department of Homeland Security,” according to her Web site.

Price may be getting in first, but she certainly won’t be alone in the race against Bunning, who is considered one of the most vulnerable Senators of next cycle’s class.

State Attorney General Jack Conway (D) is mentioned as a possibility and would make a strong candidate. The good-looking statewide office holder narrowly lost to then-Rep. Anne Northup (R), 52 percent to 48 percent, in Kentucky’s 3rd District in 2002.

Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D) is also a potential candidate. He narrowly lost to Bunning, 51 percent to 49 percent, in 2004, when he was a state Senator. In 2007, Mongiardo was elected statewide on the ticket that ousted incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R).

State Auditor Crit Luallen (D), who considered challenging Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) this cycle, is also mentioned as a potential Senate candidate.

Even with the field to herself, Price isn’t doing herself any favors. She’s set to announce her candidacy in McCreary County. But, as noted by Louisville Courier-Journal political reporter Joe Gerth, every political reporter in the state will be at St. Jerome’s picnic at Fancy Farm, the annual fall kickoff for state campaigns, roughly 300 miles away.

UPDATE: According to another Democratic source, Mongiardo and Luallen are less likely to run, but Rep. Ben Chandler and Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson are potential candidates.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.