Some House Recruits Have Yet to Measure Up to Hype

By Nathan L. Gonzales

During the election off-year, the House campaign committees spend much of their time recruiting and then promoting their top candidates — like college football teams touting their class of high school prospects before they hit the field. But a year out from Election Day, Democrats and Republicans have highly touted recruits who have either flamed out or are far from living up to the early hype.

Simply put, both parties have candidates looking to get back on track.

This spring, Springfield, Ore., Mayor Sid Leiken was touted as one of a handful of top recruits by the National Republican Congressional Committee. By challenging Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) in the 4th district, Leiken was supposed to be an example of the GOP’s effort to recruit top-notch challengers in districts that haven’t been competitive in recent cycles.

Leiken filed on May 13, but his campaign derailed less than a month later after it came to light that he paid his mother $2,000 for campaign polling to a company that wasn’t registered with the state. Over a number of days the story grew bigger as facts trickled out.

“It’s the difference between an article and a story,” according to a House GOP strategist.

Leiken choked back tears as he admitted to failing to properly document the transaction, and the secretary of state is looking into it. The matter was not insignificant, but it didn’t have to completely disrupt his campaign.

“You have to get good people around these candidates for them to succeed,” according to one GOP consultant who believes Leiken could have weathered the storm with better advice.

Instead of giving DeFazio a run for his money (the incumbent had $583,000 in the bank on Sept. 30), Leiken is facing fundraising troubles on top of everything else. The mayor raised just $52,000 through the end of the third quarter and had a paltry $21,000 in his campaign account at the end of September.

According to one GOP source, Leiken is making some changes in his campaign, but it may be too late to change the narrative of the race. For now, he may not even be Republicans’ hottest race in Oregon, with strategists becoming more excited about their prospects in the 5th and even 1st districts.

Across the country in Florida, a once-hot Democratic candidate is having trouble living up to early expectations as well.

For years, Democrats have believed that Rep. Bill Young (R) is close to retiring in Florida’s 10th district. Growing impatient because the former Appropriations chairman continues to seek re-election, this cycle Democrats recruited state Sen. Charlie Justice (D) into the race to see if they could smoke Young out. But Justice’s early fundraising has been mediocre, and Democrats are a long way from scaring Young into retirement.

Justice filed on April 24, raised $86,000 his first quarter of fundraising and $77,000 in his second. Those are less than spectacular numbers for a star recruit. He ended September with $101,000 in the bank, but Young had four times that amount.

“He needs to put in the work to build his operation and make sure he has the money to compete,” admitted one House Democratic strategist. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), who is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s vice chairwoman for incumbent retention this cycle, has been assigned to Justice to help jump-start his campaign.

The jury is still out on several other notable early recruits.

Republicans believe Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta will mount a strong challenge against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in New Hampshire’s 1st district. Guinta got into the race early and drew fire from Democrats after being at a bar when a brawl broke out and failing to call the police.

Democrats believe the mayor’s candidacy was derailed by the incident and highlight the fact that he only raised $126,000 in the third quarter. But Republicans point out that Guinta’s total was only slightly behind Shea-Porter’s $141,000 raised for the quarter and that he ended September only about $100,000 behind the incumbent in cash on hand.

Along with Leiken, California Assemblyman Van Tran (R) was part of a recruiting class built to expand the GOP playing field by challenging Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.).

And like Guinta, Democrats believe Tran’s candidacy has stalled after he raised $92,000 in the third quarter. But after raising a whopping $254,000 from mid-May to June, Tran was going to have difficulty keeping up. After tapping friends and family for contributions, a candidate’s second quarter of fundraising is thought to be considerably more difficult.

Tran had $283,000 in the bank on Sept. 30 compared with $769,000 for Sanchez.

When trouble begins to surface for candidates, early detection is critical.

“Now it’s an identified problem, and we can sit down and try and solve it,” according to one GOP strategist, who would rather advise a candidate after a poor fundraising quarter in the off-year than later next year after resources are invested. “We’re not trying to be ‘survival of the fittest.’ We’re trying to build something.”

Republicans joke that at least their alleged flameouts are raising more money than the Democrats.

Polk County Supervisor of Elections Lori Edwards was supposed to give Democrats a chance at competing for the 12th district seat that Rep. Adam Putnam (R) is vacating in Florida.

She filed on March 2, put together $101,000 through June but raised just $39,000 from July through September and had only $77,000 on hand on Sept. 30. Her likely GOP opponent, former state Rep. Dennis Ross (R), was sitting on $255,000 at the same point.

Similarly, Democrats believe state Rep. Todd Book (D) is their best possible challenger to Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) in Ohio’s 2nd district. But he comes from the least populated portion of the district and raised $64,000 in his first two months in the race, ending September with less than $45,000 in the bank. His opponent in the Democratic primary, David Krikorian, had a head start and showed $115,000 in cash on hand, while Schmidt had $235,000 in the bank.

Schmidt will never be completely safe and Book has time to get on track, but he’s not off to a roaring start. When candidates come up short in fundraising, it’s distressing because that’s all they should be doing at this point, according to one Democratic strategist.

But in the end, even an imperfect challenger could get significant support from their party’s national campaign committee if the race is ultimately deemed as a winnable opportunity.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on October 29, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Polling in Perilous Territory

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Are Sens. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.), Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) or Richard Burr (R-N.C.) this cycle’s Rick Santorum?

The former Pennsylvania Senator began his 2006 re-election race down in the polls and never recovered. And while Bunning, Dodd and Burr have something in common with Santorum’s early standing, each hopes for a different outcome.

Whether it’s trailing in polls from the get-go, as was the case for Santorum and then-Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) in 2008, or leading but at the mid-40 percent mark in ballot tests like then-Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.), all three recent cases demonstrated the difficulty for vulnerable Senators to significantly improve their standing over the course of a campaign.

Santorum trailed now-Sen. Bob Casey (D) 44 percent to 43 percent in a March 2005 Keystone poll and by a wider 49 percent to 35 percent margin in an April 2005 Quinnipiac University survey. Overall,

Santorum never led over the course of two years and lost on Election Day, 59 percent to 41 percent.

In New Hampshire last cycle, Sununu trailed former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 44 percent to 34 percent in a March 2007 American Research Group survey and trailed in all but one of 35 public polls over the course of the campaign, never topping 45 percent. He lost 52 percent to 45 percent on Election Day.

Of course, each Senate race has some unique characteristics, but Bunning, Dodd and Burr start their re-elections from a position of fundamental weakness.

Bunning’s vulnerability has been known since his narrow victory in 2004. An early Research 2000 survey in February 2009 for the liberal Daily Kos Web site showed Bunning defeating four potential Democratic opponents but still in the mid-40s on the ballot tests. Two months later, the former Hall of Fame pitcher trailed all four opponents and polled in the low to mid-30s, according to a survey by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

Dodd’s vulnerability started with headlines and then was realized when a Quinnipiac poll in February showed that 51 percent of Connecticut voters would probably not or definitely not vote to re-elect the Democrat and that more people disapproved (48 percent) than approved (41 percent) of the job that he is doing.

A month later, Quinnipiac showed Dodd in a dead heat with former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), 43 percent to 42 percent. Later in March, a Research 2000 poll had slightly better news, with Dodd besting Simmons 45 percent to 40 percent.

“Their numbers are so bad that it goes well beyond the environment,” said one GOP strategist speaking on the condition of anonymity so that he could speak freely about Dodd and Bunning.

“It doesn’t matter if Obama finds a cure for cancer, Dodd is not coming back to the U.S. Senate,” he added, while predicting that Bunning would lose, too.

In North Carolina, Burr has consistently polled between 37 percent and 46 percent in ballot tests conducted this year by the PPP, which is based in the state. The Republican has led some potential Democratic opponents and trailed state Attorney General Roy Cooper, the party’s top prospect who has yet to announce his intentions. But Burr’s standing is more important than the margin.

Last cycle, Democrats hypothesized that Smith had an electoral ceiling in the mid-40s, and that’s why they weren’t discouraged even when their February 2007 survey showed him ahead of Rep. Peter DeFazio (D) 42 percent to 38 percent. Smith consistently polled in the low 40s throughout the race and received 46 percent on Election Day.

Supporters of Dodd and Burr maintain that the incumbents’ initial numbers are soft because they are still undefined in the voters’ minds.

Considering the significant recent population growth of North Carolina, it’s an easier argument for Burr to make after one term in office. But that doesn’t make him any less vulnerable. He had an extremely low 37 percent favorable/13 percent unfavorable rating in a mid-March poll for the Civitas Institute (R). Plus, he’s running in a tossup state that President Barack Obama carried very narrowly.

For Dodd, it’s much tougher to redefine himself after representing the state for almost three decades. He had 91 percent name identification in Quinnipiac’s March poll (46 percent favorable/45 percent unfavorable) and 87 percent name identification in the March survey by Research 2000 (47 percent favorable/40 percent unfavorable).

In the spring of the year before their losses, Santorum’s name identification was 60 percent while Sununu was closer to 70 percent.

Vulnerable incumbents tend to overestimate their ability to define their race as a choice between two candidates. This cycle, Democrats will attempt to tie Simmons to former President George W. Bush, former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, while Republicans will try to use Cooper’s record against him and declare whomever winds up the Democratic nominee in Kentucky too liberal for the state.

But it doesn’t always work. In the previous cycle, Sununu was confident that the race would shift once he refocused voters on Shaheen’s record as governor — the message that helped him defeat her six years earlier. Santorum, Sununu and Smith spent a combined $45 million trying to reframe their races to no avail.

Bunning and Dodd will likely watch the other party compete in a competitive primary, when Santorum and Sununu’s challengers had clear paths to the nomination. But that doesn’t guarantee success either, since the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee helped drag now-Sen. Jeff Merkley (Ore.) through the primary last cycle before he knocked off Smith.

But while Santorum, Sununu and Smith ran in states trending against them, Bunning and Dodd are running for re-election in more favorable territory. Obama carried Connecticut with 61 percent and Oregon with 57 percent, while Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried Kentucky with 58 percent.

Democrats believe this is most significant for Dodd, who simply needs to remind Democratic voters about the good things that the Senator has done for them. “I would much rather have to win back Democrats than have to win over Republicans,” Dodd campaign manager Jay Howser said.

And while Santorum and Sununu ran into a political headwind, next year’s political environment is uncertain. “Political die is not cast yet on next year’s election,” said one GOP strategist familiar with Burr’s race.

Still, using recent history as a guide, the longer an incumbent is mired at less than 50 percent, the more difficult it becomes to break out on Election Day.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on April 23, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

What I Did When I Wasn’t at the Convention

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Oregon Congressional candidate Kurt Schrader (D) has his sights set on Congress, and his path doesn’t go through Denver. While some of the Democrats’ most promising House candidates were highlighted from the convention floor Tuesday, Schrader chose to skip the week’s festivities.

Schrader serves in the state Senate and is locked in a battle with wealthy businessman Mike Erickson (R) in Oregon’s 5th district, which is being vacated by Rep. Darlene Hooley (D). It’s a rare Democratic open seat this cycle where Republicans actually have a chance of winning.

Not only could Schrader benefit from the extra time in the district, it looks like he’s got a better view from his television in Oregon than he would have if he were attending the convention himself.

Oregon’s 65-member convention delegation was relegated to the upper corner of the lower bowl of the Pepsi Center, to the left of the stage. But the Beaver State contingency made its voices heard Monday night, chanting “O-S-U” as Craig Robinson, the new head coach of the struggling men’s basketball team of Oregon State University, introduced his sister, Michelle Obama.

Part of Corvallis, home of OSU, is in the 5th district, which is more politically competitive than it seemed when Hooley was racking up comfortable re-election victories.

“There’ll be plenty of conventions,” Schrader said at the Aurora Colony Days Parade earlier this month. “I’ve learned you don’t mess around with that stuff until after you win.”

In reality, Schrader probably can’t afford the national party label in a district that President Bush carried narrowly, 50 percent to 49 percent, in 2004. And with African-Americans making up just 1 percent of the district, Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) looks like less of a downballot force.

“We really felt like it was more important to be in the district,” Schrader campaign manager Paul Gage said, particularly because the candidate still works part time.

This week looked like most others for Schrader, as he worked Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings at his Clackamas County Veterinary Clinic in Oregon City and made fundraising calls in the afternoon.

On Monday evening, Schrader spoke to the Lake Oswego Rotary forum before catching part of the convention on TV. And on Tuesday, his convention-watching followed a house party in Milwaukie. Wednesday’s convention program featured Oregon state Speaker Jeff Merkley (D), who is challenging Sen. Gordon Smith (R), and Schrader planned to catch part of the coverage after a meeting with the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union.

The 5th district could be a battleground at the presidential, Senate and Congressional levels. Hooley has held the seat since 1996, when she defeated then-Rep. Jim Bunn (R) 51 percent to 46 percent, and she’s won solid, but not overwhelming, re-elections ever since. A Republican House candidate hasn’t reached 50 percent in the district in almost two decades, but the GOP has been competitive.

In this race, Schrader and Erickson have spent their summer campaigning across the Willamette Valley and coastal counties, attending parades and fairs. And they’re leaving no stone unturned.

Aurora, population 655, recently played host to both candidates during their annual parade. The town covers less than half a square mile but featured Schrader and Erickson’s dueling 4x4 trucks emblazoned with campaign regalia and small troops of volunteers.

Don’t mistake Aurora’s size for political naiveté. In 2006, Jennifer Strutz unseated incumbent Mayor Bill Carr, 230 votes to 185 votes. But just a year later, after Strutz subsequently proposed raising taxes, the town recalled her by a vote of 181-176.

“I thought it was nice that they came to such a small parade as ours,” said one woman, who spoke with Erickson before the parade and shook Schrader’s hand during it. “[Erickson] said he’s not a politician and he’s a businessman who’ll fix Washington. Sounds pretty good to me.”

Before the Aurora parade, Erickson, dressed in a tan polo shirt (complete with sewn-on campaign logo) and dress slacks, was vigorously shaking hands with everyone in the staging area, handing out palm cards and business cards. He paused to share a minute with Schrader, dressed in a red button down shirt, jeans and a large belt buckle, who was waiting with his staff for the parade to begin.

During the parade, Erickson weaved from sidewalk to sidewalk, breathlessly greeting potential constituents. An unrelated rolling port-a-potty followed the Erickson entourage in the parade, doing wheelies along the way.

On this day, the Republican was somewhat of a celebrity, not necessarily because of his politics, but because people recognized him from his television ads.

The wealthy businessman spent more than $1.5 million of his own money in 2006, in his double-digit loss to Hooley. And he has spent a similar amount already this cycle getting through a competitive GOP primary.

But this year, Erickson has often been on the defensive, answering questions about his personal life — particularly questions about whether he knowingly took an ex-girlfriend to get an abortion — to the point that GOP insiders aren’t particularly high on his chances.

Erickson had $400,000 in the bank on June 30, almost double Schrader’s $231,000. The Democrat raised more than a half a million dollars through the first six months of the year. He will need to step up his fundraising to compete with his wealthy opponent.

Schrader split his time on the parade route walking and waving behind the campaign banner being held by two staff members and greeting voters on the side of the street, with a hearse advertising Milburn’s Haunted Mansion and a handful of teenagers in gothic garb trailing a few feet behind.

The state Senator represents southwestern Clackamas County and still needs to increase his name identification districtwide. Some folks were more familiar with his wife, Martha Schrader, a Clackamas County commissioner who was also considered a potential 5th district candidate immediately after Hooley announced her retirement.

The Schraders moved to Oregon after graduate school and live on a historic farm near Canby.

After the parade, kids raced around Aurora’s sidewalks with Erickson for Congress stickers affixed to their helmets — partial evidence that the Republican may have won the day and the battle. But Schrader has a slight edge in the war.

The national environment continues to be poor for Republicans and the personal questions surrounding Erickson makes it difficult for him to get out any other message. And while the district is competitive, some Portland suburbs in Multnomah County, along with the Corvallis area, give Democrats a boost.

It looks like Schrader’s race to lose, but he’s got a few years to make it look as easy as Hooley did.


This story first appeared in Roll Call on August 28, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Are Senate Races Moving in One Partisan Direction?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Senate election cycles normally take one of two paths. Either all the close races fall toward one party in a political “wave,” or individual races are decided by race-specific factors, particularly the quality of the candidates, the power of incumbency and local issues.

We’ve had cycles when both parties have suffered a substantial number of defeats with only a minimal net change of Senate seats (1976 and 1978 are prime examples), but that’s not going to happen this cycle. Republicans have only a single reasonable opportunity for a takeover this year.

We’ve had four noteworthy Senate “waves” in the past 28 years, in 2006, 1994, 1986 and 1980, and it’s possible that we’ll see another one this year. But it’s also possible that all the talk about Democratic Senate opportunities is just a bit over-hyped, and that Democrats will have a good year, not a great one.

One way of anticipating whether a wave is likely to develop is to monitor competitive Senate contests periodically to determine whether they are moving in one direction. That’s what I intend to do in this column. Of course, any wave may not show itself until after the two presidential nominating conventions. Still, the way individual Senate races move in the near term may offer some clue about a trend.

I must begin with one caveat: In evaluating races, I do not factor in certain widely circulated polls, including those conducted by Rasmussen Reports, that I regard as less reliable. (In other words, I treat some polls as if they don’t even exist.)

Democrats continue to be well- positioned to take over three GOP-held seats: open seats in Virginia and New Mexico, and Sen. John Sununu’s seat in New Hampshire. There is no evidence of significant movement in any of those contests, though Republicans continue to insist that Sununu’s race will close.

Democrats, of course, don’t need movement in any of the contests. They lead in all three.

The fourth most vulnerable Senate seat, the open Republican seat in Colorado, remains competitive. But given the state’s recent political behavior and the national mood, GOP insiders have little reason to be optimistic about their chances.

The next most vulnerable Senate seat, in Minnesota, has moved toward the Republicans in recent weeks. GOP strategists have successfully put presumptive Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Al Franken on the defensive, both over his nonpayment of certain taxes and, more importantly, a variety of statements he has made over the years.

Franken has defended his remarks by insisting that they were part of his shtick and intended as satire, not statements of his beliefs. But his language has been crude and his comedy often biting, and even some Democratic officeholders have expressed concern about his judgment.

Republican Sen. Norm Coleman has benefited in the polls of late, and even though Franken has time to change the dynamic of the race, it now seems likely that the comedian turned politician will have to defend himself repeatedly over the next four months. At the very least, that puts the challenger constantly on the defensive, improving Coleman’s prospects.

There are no signs of movement in Alaska, and that’s good news for Democrats. Polls continue to show challenger Mark Begich (D) leading Sen. Ted Stevens (R) narrowly. The longer that race stays tight, the better for Democrats, who are trying to knock off a state political icon.

The fact that the Maine race has not closed in surveys widely viewed as reliable is disappointing news for Democrats. GOP Sen. Susan Collins continues to be well-regarded and has a comfortable lead over her challenger, Rep. Tom Allen (D). Sitting in a blue state that went for Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Collins would seem to be a perfect target in a “wave” election, but so far, her prospects are undimmed.

Democrats remain upbeat about Jeff Merkley’s chances of ousting Sen. Gordon Smith in Oregon, but I’m not convinced that they are any closer to doing that now than they were four or five months ago.

True, the recent decision by Independent John Frohmayer to drop his Senate candidacy is good news for Merkley. But it is difficult to see it as all that significant, especially since Democrats spent so much time and effort arguing that Frohmayer’s candidacy was inconsequential when he was a candidate. If they were right that he wasn’t going to be a factor in the race, they cannot now claim that his exit is all that important.

Still, this definitely is a race to watch for possible “wave” evidence, and Smith almost certainly will have a fight on his hands all the way to November.

If a wave develops, the three best places to watch may well be North Carolina, Kentucky and Mississippi. Democratic prospects in all three seem to have improved recently (especially after post-primary polling in North Carolina and Kentucky), giving the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee more options in the campaign’s final months.

Even Republicans seem increasingly nervous about Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.), who hasn’t released polling numbers since February and has been up on TV since late May. Dole’s opponent, state Sen. Kay Hagan (D), has some liabilities, but I have little doubt about her work ethic.

Finally, the Louisiana Senate race, pitting incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) against her GOP challenger, John Kennedy, hasn’t changed at all. Polls show the Senator ahead, but the fundamentals almost guarantee a close race.

In sum, developments in two states, Minnesota and Maine, should have Republicans optimistic, while Democrats have reasons to be happy about some longer-shot races, as well as their top takeover opportunities.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on June 23, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Oregon Senate: Will Democrats in Oregon Go Quirky or Traditional?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Two weeks from tomorrow, we’ll know whether Oregon Democrats have nominated Jeff Merkley or Steve Novick to take on incumbent Gordon Smith (R) in the Senate race. The primary, with anti-war candidate Candy Neville a wild card, has been far more entertaining — and much more competitive — than most observers initially assumed.

Voting actually begins in the Beaver State immediately, since mail ballots are in the process of being sent out to registered voters.

Democratic consultant Novick, who was born without a left hand and uses a hook, has run the kind of quirky campaign he promised, badgering his opponent in press releases and airing offbeat ads that play up the fact that he is not just another politician.

When he began his bid for the Democratic nomination, Novick acknowledged that he would pattern his campaign after previous efforts by now-Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) and the late Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone (D). Early on, he even promised that his campaign would be “the Wellstone campaign on steroids.” He’s certainly done that, including using Feingold’s media consultant.

Feingold and Wellstone began as long shots and presented themselves as political outsiders and reformers, emphasizing that they wanted to change Washington, D.C. So has Novick.

And Feingold and Wellstone relied on off beat television ads to deliver their messages of change. One Novick ad shows him opening a beer bottle with his hook, while another starts out as a stereotypical ad — until he pulls an oversized plug on it and says, “Sorry, but I refuse to run the same old ads as ordinary politicians.”

While Novick has some institutional support — former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and former Rep. Les AuCoin (D) have endorsed him, as has the Oregon Education Association — Merkley, the Speaker of Oregon’s House, is widely viewed as the establishment candidate.

Merkley’s endorsements include Gov. Ted Kulongoski and former Gov. Barbara Roberts, Oregon Attorney General Hardy Myers, state Treasurer Randall Edwards and Oregon Superintendent of Public Instruction Susan Castillo, as well as the mayors of Portland, Eugene, Corvallis and Bend.

The leaders of the state Senate and House have also endorsed their colleague Merkley, as have much of organized labor, the Sierra Club and the Humane Society. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which is officially neutral in the primary, helped recruit Merkley into the Senate race and is widely seen as preferring the Oregon Speaker.

Perhaps the most surprising endorsement in the primary has come from The Oregonian, the biggest newspaper in the state, which endorsed Novick last week, calling him “a bold choice for Democrats” and “an unusual man with an unusual résumé.”

Merkley has a considerable financial advantage, but it isn’t overwhelming. Through the end of March, he had raised just over $1.3 million to Novick’s just under $900,000. Merkley ended the quarter with $473,000 in the bank, while Novick had $197,000.

Observers note that with only a couple of weeks left in the contest, neither man has pulled ahead (more than one poll shows a statistical dead heat), but Merkley is out-buying Novick on TV, which could have an impact on the Democratic horse race. It’s unclear who will benefit from the expected big primary turnout fueled by the presidential race.

Novick has proved to be a more resilient and appealing candidate than some assumed. Even if his greatest appeal is with journalists, political consultants and Portland liberals, he has, so far at least, given Merkley more than the Oregon Speaker wanted.

In the campaign’s final days, the question is whether Novick can broaden his appeal and convince state voters that he really has something to contribute in the Senate, or whether he’s more interested in the electoral process.

While Novick has an interesting story to tell — he graduated from college at the age of 18 and from Harvard Law School at 21, worked for the Justice Department in Washington, D.C., and for Oregon’s Senate Democrats, was policy director for Kulongoski and worked actively on state ballot measures — he often seems more interested in shocking or amusing rather than impressing.

Merkley lacks Novick’s pizzazz, but he appears more substantive and serious (and, yes, less engaging) than the consultant. He holds a master’s in public policy from the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton, was a presidential management fellow who worked in the Department of Defense on nuclear forces issues, worked at the Congressional Budget Office, worked for Habitat for Humanity and spent seven years as president of the World Affairs Council of Oregon.

Both Merkley and Novick have predictably liberal records and agendas, and each attacks Smith for being too conservative and for “canceling out” the vote of the state’s other Senator, Democrat Ron Wyden.

But Democratic observers worry about Novick as a general election candidate. They fret about his appeal to swing voters and moderates and fear voters will tire of what they regard as his gimmicky campaign.

An upset win by Novick could catapult him into the general election with just the momentum he needs. Or it could convince some voters and Democratic contributors that defeating Smith is a pipe dream.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on May 5, 2008. Copyright 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Open Season in 2010

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Democrats aren’t losing much sleep over their open seats this cycle. But 2010 may be a whole different story.

This year, Democrats control only seven of the 31 open seats in the House. They simply aren’t leaving Washington, D.C., the way the Republicans are, whether it’s due to excitement about the new majorities or peer pressure.

But it also could be due to a lack of opportunity. Along with no open Senate seats on the Democratic side, a mere 11 governorships are up this cycle (including only three open seats), and Democratic Members of Congress aren’t running for any of them.

Contrast that with 2010, when 36 governorships will be on the ballot, including at least 19 open seats. If Democratic House Members make the move, the Democratic Governors Association stands to benefit while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee can only wait and prepare to defend.

“We are fortunate to have such a talented pool of possible 2010 candidates, and we are confident that Democrats’ interests are aligned,” said DGA press secretary Brian Namey. “The first step in building a long-term majority in Congress is electing Democratic governors.”

In South Dakota, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) is expected to run for the state’s open governorship. Her family has a long political history in the state that includes her grandfather, former Gov. Ralph Herseth, and grandmother, former Secretary of State Lorna Herseth. The Congresswoman’s father, Lars Herseth, was a longtime state legislator who lost his own gubernatorial bid in 1986. Herseth Sandlin could run in part to redress his loss.

Herseth Sandlin already represents the entire state in her at-large district, and would be a formidable gubernatorial candidate. But her seat will be a tough hold for the DCCC. She had the family history in the state and one statewide bid under her belt before winning under unusual circumstances.

She lost her first House race in 2002 to former Gov. Bill Janklow (R), earning 46 percent. But Janklow resigned the seat in January 2004 after killing a motorcyclist in a car crash and being convicted of second-degree manslaughter. Herseth Sandlin won the subsequent June special election with 51 percent over former state Sen. Larry Diedrich (R). She won a full term, 53 percent to 46 percent in a rematch five months later, and cruised to re-election in the previous cycle.

But South Dakota still is a Republican state, and Democrats will struggle to find someone to follow Herseth Sandlin in the House. President Bush carried the state 60 percent to 38 percent in 2004.

In Tennessee, Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) is mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate. If he chooses to run, he may face primary opposition from former Rep. Harold Ford Jr., the 2006 Senate nominee, or former Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell.

Bush did well in Davis’ 4th district, carrying 22 of 24 counties and winning it 58 percent to 41 percent. Davis initially won the seat in 2002, when GOP Rep. Van Hilleary decided to run for governor. The Blue Dog Democrat was elected with 52 percent that year and re-elected with 55 percent two years later in a district that stretches across central Tennessee from the Kentucky border south to Alabama and Georgia.

Republicans are trying to make some noise in the district this cycle with businessman Monty Lankford (R), but their best shot would be in an open seat. Democrats likely would need another socially conservative candidate to keep the open seat.

Rep. Artur Davis (D) is sitting on $881,000 in campaign cash without a serious 2008 race and is a potential gubernatorial candidate in Alabama next cycle. But his 7th district seat would not be at risk for a takeover. The district’s population is 62 percent black, and Bush received only 35 percent there in 2004.

Other Democratic districts could become competitive, particularly in a midterm election of a Democratic president, if Members vacate them.

Minnesota Rep. Tim Walz (D) is focused on re-election this cycle to his 1st district seat, but he’s also mentioned as a future gubernatorial candidate. Walz was swept in with the Democratic wave of 2006, defeating then-Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) with 53 percent, in a district that Bush carried by 4 points. Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) is also mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2010.

Rep. Mike Michaud (D) won Maine’s 2nd district in 2002 when John Baldacci (D) vacated the seat to run for governor. Even though Michaud has had two easy re-elections, the district could be competitive once again. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) used to represent the district, and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won it by only 6 points in the 2004 White House election. Baldacci will be term-limited as governor next cycle and Michaud is mentioned as a potential candidate.

Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) is also mentioned as a potential 2010 statewide candidate. The 69-year-old Congressman might be eyeing the governorship because it doesn’t look as if either of Hawaii’s Senate seats is opening up anytime soon. Abercrombie had close races in both 1994 (54 percent) and 1996 (50 percent), and Kerry won the district with only 53 percent in 2004. Under the right circumstances, the seat could become competitive.

Regardless of who runs for governor, the DGA is already preparing and planning for next cycle with its Project 2010. The committee is on pace to break its 2006 fundraising record in 2008, even though this year is considered an “off-cycle” for gubernatorial races. And with so few competitive races this year, the DGA will finish the cycle with money in the bank.

Of course, House Democrats aren’t the only ones eyeing governorships.

“If you’re a member of the minority, sitting in Congress today, you might take a gamble on becoming a chief executive,” said GOP consultant Phil Musser, the former executive director of the Republican Governors Association.

Oregon Rep. Greg Walden (R) is a potential gubernatorial candidate, and is already being attacked by the Oregon Democratic Party. But the National Republican Congressional Committee is not likely to have much trouble holding his massive 2nd district seat. Bush won the district with 61 percent in 2004 and the rural area is conservative, despite significant growth in the Bend area.

In New York, Rep. Peter King (R) is publicly exploring a gubernatorial bid. He’s represented the Long Island-based 3rd district since 1992, and Republicans would likely have some difficulty holding the seat in the current political environment. Bush won the district by only 5 points in 2004, and Empire State Republicans are becoming an endangered species in the Congressional delegation. King is publicly looking, but he may not actually make the jump next cycle.

Other Republican Members who are potential gubernatorial candidates include Candice Miller (Mich.), Zach Wamp (Tenn.) and Darrell Issa (Calif.), who was pushed aside during the 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis (D) but still contributed financially to the effort to oust Davis.

At this early stage, there look to be more Republican Senators seriously eyeing governorships. Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is a strong bet to run for governor of Kansas next cycle, simultaneously abiding by his term-limits pledge. He’ll be looking to replace term- limited Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) who will, in turn, receive heavy pressure to run for Brownback’s Senate seat, creating a rare Democratic opportunity and National Republican Senatorial Committee headache in Kansas.

Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) is widely expected to run for governor in 2010, replacing Gov. Sonny Perdue (R). Isakson ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1990 and would need to get past state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R), who has already announced for the race. At one point, Perdue was mentioned as a Senate candidate for Isakson’s seat, but that scenario may be in doubt.

Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison could be headed for a Republican primary for governor as well, where she could face off against incumbent Gov. Rick Perry and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on May 1, 2008. Copyright 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

By Stuart Rothenberg

A significant number of retirements since my last Dangerous Dozen (Oct. 25, 2007) has shuffled the list and shows why the fight for the House is a one-sided battle, with Democrats having most of the targets.

Here are the dozen most vulnerable open House seats, starting with the most likely seats to flip. The first three districts are all likely to go Democratic and are in a class of their own.

Illinois’ 11th: State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D) would be a formidable nominee in any case, but Republican prospects weren’t helped when their primary winner, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, dropped out of the race. Local GOP leaders are expected to select businessman Martin Ozinga III to replace Baldermann as the party’s nominee. The district is competitive (President Bush carried it by 7 points in 2004).

New York’s 25th: Republican Rep. Jim Walsh (R) barely beat challenger Dan Maffei (D) last time, and Walsh’s decision to retire gives Maffei a clear shot this time in the marginal upstate district. The race for the Republican nomination was scrambled when Peter Cappuccilli Jr., the former director of the New York State Fair, dropped his bid after having a mild stroke. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won the district by 2 points in 2004.

Virginia’s 11th: Rep. Tom Davis’ (R) retirement and the general drift of Washington, D.C.’s Virginia suburbs toward the Democrats create a significant problem for the GOP. Gerry Connolly, who chairs the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, begins with an edge for the Democratic nomination over former Rep. Leslie Byrne. The most-mentioned Republican right now is businessman Keith Fimian, who has impressed in early fundraising and has invested some of his own money in the race.

Ohio’s 16th: Republican Rep. Ralph Regula’s retirement wasn’t a total surprise in a district that went for Bush by 8 points (54 percent to 46 percent) in 2004. State Sen. John Boccieri should be a strong Democratic nominee, while the Republican nominee, state Sen. Kirk Schuring, may have problems holding his party’s base.

Arizona’s 1st: GOP strategists breathed a sigh of relief when embattled Rep. Rick Renzi (R) announced he wouldn’t seek re-election, but this district is still in play. Former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is the favorite in the Democratic race, though she faces a fight for her party’s nomination from former TV personality Mary Kim Titla and attorney Howard Shanker. The Republican race pits conservative activist Sydney Hay against state Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes, though former state Senate President Ken Bennett is reconsidering his earlier decision not to run. Bush won the district by 8 points in 2004.

Alabama’s 5th: Rep. Bud Cramer’s retirement creates a rare Democratic open-seat problem this cycle. His North Alabama district is only 17 percent black, and Bush carried it with 60 percent four years ago. Businessman Wayne Parker, who lost a squeaker to Cramer in 1994 (and by a larger margin in 1996) is running for the GOP nomination, while state Sen. Parker Griffith has entered the Democratic race.

New Jersey’s 3rd: Rep. Jim Saxton’s (R) retirement gives Democrats another target in the Northeast. State Sen. John Adler (D) also gives them a formidable nominee. Local Republicans are split, with Lockheed Vice President Chris Myers having the support of Saxton and the important Burlington County GOP. Myers faces Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly for the GOP nomination. The district is competitive.

Minnesota’s 3rd: Rep. Jim Ramstad’s (R) retirement adds to Republican woes given the competitiveness of the suburban district. The district went for Bush by 3 points in 2004. State Sen. Terri Bonoff is having a surprisingly hard time trying to fend off Ashwin Madia, an attorney and Iraq War veteran, for the Democratic nomination, while state Rep. Erik Paulsen is expected to be the GOP nominee.

New Mexico’s 1st: Republican Rep. Heather Wilson’s run for the Senate opens up a seat that she has held, though with significant difficulty, since a June 1998 special election. Last year, she was re-elected by 861 votes. Three Democrats are in the race: former Albuquerque Councilor Martin Heinrich, former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham and former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron. But Republicans are upbeat about their chances, with Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White the favorite of party insiders. Kerry carried the district with 51 percent in 2004.

Ohio’s 15th: Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce barely held on last time, defeating Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by 1,000 votes in a come-from-behind win. Kilroy is back, but Pryce has decided to call it quits. State Sen. Steve Stivers (R) initially passed on the race but has changed his mind. He should be a formidable candidate in November. While Bush barely squeezed by Kerry four years ago, Franklin County (Columbus) has been moving toward the Democrats.

Oregon’s 5th: Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley’s retirement gives Republicans a competitive Democratic seat to shoot at. Each party has a primary. For the Democrats, it’s state Sen. Kurt Schrader and former gubernatorial aide Steve Marks, and for the GOP it is former party Chairman Kevin Mannix and ’06 nominee Mike Erickson. Bush carried the district narrowly in 2004.

New Jersey’s 7th: State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) is taking her second shot at the seat after losing to Rep. Mike Ferguson (R) by less than 2 points in 2006. With Ferguson retiring, she'll face either state Sen. Leonard Lance (R) or Kate Whitman (R), daughter of the former governor, in the general election. Bush carried the district with 53 percent in 2004, leaving another GOP headache.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on April 7, 2008. Copyright 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Memo to Merkley: Be Careful How You Criticize Sen. Smith

By Stuart Rothenberg

The newspaper headlines could well read “Democrat Merkley Blasts Feinstein, Dorgan and Johnson,” or possibly “Democrat Attacks Leading Democrats.”

That’s because Oregon Senate candidate Jeff Merkley (D) apparently was more concerned with scoring political points than thinking through the circumstances when he attacked incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith’s vote to confirm Court of Appeals nominee Leslie Southwick.

Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House and Smith’s likely Democratic opponent (attorney/activist Steve Novick also is seeking the Democratic nomination), distributed a news release shortly after Southwick’s confirmation blasting the Republican Senator’s vote for confirmation.

“Gordon Smith showed his true allegiance to George Bush’s far right agenda today. Smith had a chance to take a stand for fair treatment of all Americans. Instead, he stood up for the kind of divisive politics that is tearing America apart,” Merkley said in the Oct. 24 release.

The only problem is that nine Democratic Senators also voted to confirm Southwick, including the chairman of the party’s Senate Policy Committee, North Dakota’s Byron Dorgan. Dorgan, no doubt, would be surprised to learn that he too was voting for the president’s “far right agenda” by casting a vote to confirm Southwick.

I can’t wait to see Merkley tell California Democrat Dianne Feinstein, South Dakota’s Tim Johnson, North Dakota’s Kent Conrad and West Virginia’s Robert Byrd, the President Pro Tem, that in casting their votes to confirm Southwick, those veteran Democratic Senators “stood up for the kind of divisive politics that is tearing America apart.”

Imagine what it will be like when Merkley, who was 2 years old when Byrd was first elected to the Senate, strolls up to the West Virginia Democrat and criticizes him for voting to confirm a judge “who sees no serious problem with racial slurs against employees and who puts his narrow-minded values ahead of providing a nurturing home for children.” Byrd certainly will take that criticism good-naturedly.

Merkley is a serious threat to Smith given the national political environment and the damage that the Republican brand has experienced during the Bush presidency. But the Senate challenger isn’t helping himself with a campaign filled with overheated rhetoric.

Smith, 55, is a likable, low-key Senator who isn’t as easy to classify as the Merkley news releases suggest.

While he started off supporting the Bush policy in Iraq, Smith was one of the first Senate Republicans to break publicly with the president, taking to the Senate floor in December to say, “I, for one, am at the end of my rope when it comes to supporting a policy that has our soldiers patrolling the same streets in the same way, being blown up by the same bombs day after day. That is absurd. It may even be criminal.” Not surprisingly, Smith supported Democratic efforts to set a date by which U.S. forces would be withdrawn from Iraq.

While he supported a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage and is undeniably an opponent of abortion rights, Smith has been an outspoken supporter of hate crimes legislation that includes attacks against gays, and he supported expanded federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research.

And while Smith sided with his GOP colleagues and against most Democrats to cut off a filibuster preventing a final vote on allowing drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, he opposed most of his Republican colleagues and voted with 38 Democrats in favor of a bill overhauling the nation’s immigration policy and establishing a guest- worker program.

Obviously, Smith has a lengthy record in politics, first in the Oregon Senate and then, during the past decade, in the United States Senate. That record will give Merkley plenty of ammunition, and the Democrat will likely have the resources to deliver an impressive barrage against Smith. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will be sure of that.

Merkley is helped by the fact that Oregon has leaned Democratic of late. The Democratic presidential nominee has won the past five races, and Democrats represent four of the state’s five House seats. Democrats also control both chambers of the Oregon Legislature.

But Oregon isn’t as liberal as some assume. The GOP controlled the state House in Oregon before the 2006 elections, and even now the Democratic majority in that chamber is a reed-thin 31-29. And though George W. Bush lost the state in each of his White House runs, Al Gore carried Oregon by only 6,765 votes in 2000, and John Kerry won it by only 4 points in 2004.

Recent polling by SurveyUSA, which conducts automated polls but appears to have a track record no worse than many traditional surveys, shows the problem that Merkley faces in the race.

An October SurveyUSA statewide survey found Bush’s job approval at 35 percent (compared with 63 percent disapproving), while Smith’s job approval was at a considerably higher 49 percent (with 42 percent disapproving). Oregonians, unlike voters in some other states, are distinguishing between the two Republicans, a good sign for the Senator.

Interestingly, Smith’s job approval among Republicans and Democrats was almost identical, at around 50 percent, as was his disapproval (at around 40 percent for both). He appears to have found the single best niche for an Oregon Republican — his best job approval ratings are among moderates (57 percent), not among conservatives (50 percent).

Merkley must redefine Smith in the eyes of Oregon voters if the challenger is going to remain one of national Democrats’ best hopes of beating a GOP incumbent. But the Democrat must be careful not to appear too negative in a state where voters are sensitive to too much negativity.

Yes, Gordon Smith is likely to be vulnerable because of the national environment. Yes, his re-election is very much in doubt. But if Jeff Merkley isn’t careful, he could turn out to be another Bill Bradbury (D) — an over-hyped, overly negative challenger whose bark is much worse than his bite.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on November 1, 2007. Copyright 2007 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Oregon Senate & Wisconsin 8

The July 13, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check. Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...

Oregon Senate: The Meaning of the Letter “R”
By Nathan L. Gonzales

It all comes down to one letter – R. In fifteen months, Oregonians will decide whether the letter behind Sen. Gordon Smith’s name ties him to the national party led by President George W. Bush or, rather, to the maverick style of former Oregon GOP senators Mark Hatfield and Bob Packwood.

By the time the campaign is over, voters in the Beaver State may be wondering if each party is talking about the same Gordon Smith, who is the only Republican elected statewide in Oregon and the only Republican U.S. Senator on the West Coast.

In similar fashion to 2006, Democrats are attempting to portray Smith as just another national Republican, out-of-step with the state. The senator will rely on twelve years in statewide office, and he points to the war in Iraq and hate crimes legislation as key differences with his party.

With all of the energy and message surrounding the campaign to oust Smith, Democrats have struggled to find a candidate. Attorney/activist Steve Novick (D) is in the race, but national Democrats won’t give him the time of day. According to Democratic insiders, the party should have a stronger candidate soon – very soon.

Of course, party insiders really wanted former Gov. John Kitzhaber or Cong. Peter DeFazio, but they’re most likely to get new state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. He won’t necessarily have the field to himself, but he should enjoy the support from party insiders, possibly even the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Based on recent polling numbers, national Democrats view Smith as a top target, even above some of his vulnerable colleagues such as Norm Coleman (R-MN) and Susan Collins (R-ME). But the numbers may not be the whole story, and it’s going to be difficult to beat the Oregon Republican. For the whole story, you must subscribe...

Wisconsin 8: From Green to Blue to Red?

While suffering heavy losses nationally last year, Republicans came up one seat short of holding a trio of competitive open seats in the upper Midwest. Peter Roskam (IL 6) and Michelle Bachmann (MN 6) successfully kept open seats in the GOP column, but Wisconsin Assembly Speaker John Gard couldn’t follow suit in Wisconsin’s 8th CD.

Now, Republicans have their sights set on freshman Cong. Steve Kagen (D), a wealthy doctor who won the hard fought, bitter and expensive race. Within just a few days of winning, Kagen started to ruffle feathers in D.C., which resulted in some unflattering stories back home. And it further fueled Republican efforts to target the seat in 2008.

Gard has kept an extremely low profile after his loss, but GOP insiders believe he will run again, and is most likely to get in sometime this fall. While the race was very close, Gard’s campaign performance won’t automatically deter other Republicans. Subscribe now for the rest of the story...

In the next issue: 2008 Senate Overview.

8 for '08: Battleground States to Watch

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Only six months into the election cycle, the universe of 2008 battleground states is already beginning to take shape. But an accurate list of the battlegrounds includes more than just the presidential race and takes into account states where hot House, Senate and even gubernatorial races also will be taking place.

For parties, political action committees, 527s, or even political junkies looking to maximize their time and effort, these eight states should host a significant percentage of the political action this cycle, listed in descending order from most active. Some states such as Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin could host fierce presidential campaigning, but the action downballot is much more limited.

Ohio: Twenty electoral votes, at least five competitive House races
Many Democrats still think “what if” when they hear the word “Ohio,” after President Bush carried it narrowly 51 percent to 49 percent on his way to defeating Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.). Four years earlier, Bush only carried the state 50 percent to 46 percent and the Buckeye State is a lock to be a presidential battleground once again.

The 2006 election results provided a mixed bag for Democrats. While taking over the governorship and knocking off Sen. Mike DeWine (R), they netted only one House seat. Currently, up to five House seats could be in play. Democrats are excited about two recruits: state Rep. Steve Driehaus, against Rep. Steve Chabot in the 1st district, and state Sen. John Boccieri against Rep. Ralph Regula in the 16th district.

In the 15th district, Franklin County Commissioners Paula Brooks and 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy will battle for the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Deborah Pryce (R). And Democrats will target Rep. Jean Schmidt in the 2nd district, but she may not even make it out of the primary.

Ohio’s 18th district, the seat of former Rep. Bob Ney (R) and now held by Rep. Zack Space (D), is a priority target for Republicans.

Pennsylvania: Twenty-one electoral votes, four House races
Although it received more attention in 2000, the Keystone State is likely to play another critical role in the presidential race. Kerry carried Pennsylvania narrowly 51 percent to 48 percent in 2004 while Al Gore carried it 51 percent to 46 percent in 2000.

Four House seats also could be in play. Republicans are particularly interested in the 10th district, formerly held by ex-Rep. Don Sherwood (R), who got into a public debate about how he treated his mistress. Republicans have a host of candidates there looking to take on freshman Rep. Chris Carney (D).

Rep. Jason Altmire (D) also is a target in the 4th district with both former Rep. Melissa Hart (R) and former Pittsburgh Steelers star and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann (R) taking a look at running. And Rep. Joe Sestak (D) is not likely to get a pass either in the 7th district. Democrats will go after Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) again in the 6th district after he was the last man standing amid a heap of Republican rubble.

Colorado: Nine electoral votes, Senate race, one House race
Democrats haven’t carried the state at the presidential level since Bill Clinton in 1992, but the state has been trending Democratic. Bush won the state by 9 points in 2000 but by only 5 points four years later. Democrats took over one of the state’s Senate seats in 2004 and have their sights set on the second seat, being vacated by GOP Sen. Wayne Allard, in 2008. Rep. Mark Udall is the likely Democratic nominee, while Republicans have former Rep. Bob Schaffer.

In 2006, Democrats also took over the governorship and the 7th district House seat, now held by Rep. Ed Perlmutter. They also control both the state House and Senate. By the numbers, the 7th district should be a swing district, but Republicans aren’t likely to make a real push in the current environment. Democrats will take another swing at Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) in the 4th district, even without star recruit Brandon Schaffer, who took a pass on the race.

Minnesota: Ten electoral votes, Senate race, two House races
Richard Nixon was the last Republican to carry the state for president in 1972, but the White House races are consistently close. Kerry carried the state 51 percent to 48 percent in 2004 and in 2000, Gore won it by a narrower 48 percent to 46 percent.

Norm Coleman (R) is one of the most vulnerable Senators in the country, and has already drawn a crowd of challengers including comedian Al Franken and attorney Mike Ciresi. Democrats may not be through recruiting yet.

Republicans are targeting freshman Rep. Tim Walz (D) in the 1st district after he knocked off then-Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) and two GOP state legislators already are running. Freshman Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) begins the first, of likely many, re-election races in the 6th district, in which she is targeted for her unabashed conservative views.

Virginia: Thirteen electoral votes, potential Senate race, two House races
This is a state that wouldn’t have been anywhere near this list four years ago, on the eve of Bush’s 9-point victory over Kerry. Democrats haven’t carried Virginia at the presidential level since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and make up only three of the state’s 11-Member Congressional delegation.

But Tim Kaine (D) won the governorship in 2005, and Jim Webb (D) defeated Sen. George Allen (R) last year in one of the closest Senate races in the country. Now, politicos on both sides of the aisle are watching to see whether Sen. John Warner (R) retires (as many insiders expect), setting up an extremely competitive open-seat race. Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) would be heavily recruited and difficult to defeat.

Rep. Tom Davis (R) would run for an open Senate seat as well, but his 10th district House seat in Northern Virginia would be difficult for Republicans to defend. Democrats also will challenge Rep. Thelma Drake (R) in the 2nd district, after her 2-point victory in 2006.

New Hampshire: Four electoral votes, Senate race, House race
Kerry carried the state by 2 points in 2004, and Bush carried it by 1 point in 2000. Sen. John Sununu (R) already has three challengers, but it’s his 2002 foe, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), who would give him the toughest test — if she runs. Last year’s GOP massacre in which Republicans lost both the state House and state Senate and both seats in Congress, makes Sununu extremely vulnerable. Former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) is challenging freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) for his old 1st district seat.

Florida: Twenty-seven electoral votes, two House races
Even though Bush won the Sunshine State by 5 points in 2004, Florida must still be considered a battleground state with its 27 electoral votes. Rep. Tim Mahoney (D) is a top Republican target in the 16th district after his 49 percent to 48 percent victory with ex-Rep. Mark Foley’s name still on the ballot. Democrats are making an effort in the 8th district against Rep. Ric Keller (R).

Oregon: Seven electoral votes, Senate race
Ronald Reagan was the last Republican presidential contender to carry Oregon, but the state has been surprisingly closer the past two cycles. In 2000, Gore won it narrowly while Kerry won it by 4 points in 2004.

Democrats are still looking for a top-tier candidate against Sen. Gordon Smith (R), after a series of rejections from the Congressional delegation and a former governor, but the Republican incumbent is far from a safe bet for re-election. If Democrats nominate Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) for president, Rep. Darlene Hooley (D) could be vulnerable, but she has proved to be a very tough campaigner.


This story first appeared in Roll Call on June 28, 2007. Copyright 2007 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.