Is the Time Ripe for Third-Party and Independent Bids?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Both the Republican and Democratic brands are damaged. Voters think the country is headed off on the wrong track and still clamor for change. Every primary and general election hopeful who can (and some who reasonably can’t) is running against Washington, D.C., and against professional politicians.

So is this the time for third-party candidates and Independents to show their political muscle and become serious players in the fall campaigns and in November?

In a few places the answer is “yes.” In most, it’s still a thundering “no.”

There are really three types of Independent hopefuls: contenders, spoilers and pretenders.

Independent candidates for governor in at least three states, all of them in New England, are running serious races, and the number of credible non-major-party candidates could grow if Minnesota’s Independence Party nominates someone with serious credentials or personal resources.

Former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee, now an Independent, may well have the best shot of the New England bunch of winning his state’s top office in November, thereby replacing retiring Gov. Don Carcieri (R), who is finishing his second term.

Chafee bears a well-known political name. His father, John, served four terms in the U.S. Senate, and he served one. Both men ran as Republicans. And like his father, Lincoln Chafee was a liberal Republican whose record angered conservatives both in Rhode Island and nationally.

The likely GOP nominee for governor is former gubernatorial aide John Robitaille, whose electoral high water mark is losing a state legislative contest by four votes. Two Democratic statewide officeholders are competing for their party’s nomination, state Treasurer Frank Caprio and state Attorney General Patrick Lynch.

Chafee currently leads in public polls in three-way ballot tests, and his appeal across the partisan spectrum makes him a contender.

In Maine, Independent Eliot Cutler looks like a very credible candidate in a contest that now, some two months before the state’s primary, boasts a field of candidates that is almost large enough to deserve its own ZIP code. The winner will replace retiring Gov. John Baldacci (D), who won re-election four years ago with 38 percent of the vote.

A native of Maine who served on the staff of former Sen. Edmund Muskie (D) and then in President Jimmy Carter’s Office of Management and Budget, Cutler was a partner in the Washington, D.C., powerhouse law firm of Akin Gump Strass Hauer and Feld.

Cutler rightly points out that Maine has not been reluctant to elect Independent governors — in 1974 James Longley won the state’s top job as an Independent, and Angus King won two terms the same way, in 1994 and 1998. The last major party nominee to win at least 50 percent of the vote in a Maine gubernatorial contest was Joseph Brennan in 1982.

While incumbents in Maine and Rhode Island are term-limited and unable to seek re-election, Massachusetts incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick (D) is running for a second term despite having a job-approval rating in public polls of under 40 percent.

Two Republican businessmen, Charles Baker and Christy Mihos, are competing for the GOP nomination, while Patrick has avoided a primary. But in the fall, an Independent, state Treasurer Tim Cahill, will be a factor.

Cahill, initially elected in 2002 and reelected four years later, ran and served as a Democrat until last year, when he switched his party affiliation to Independent. A critic of the Obama health care plan and an opponent of tax hikes, he has the kind of appeal that could hurt the GOP’s chances in November (which explains why Republicans are attacking him). Polls generally show Cahill running a strong third, getting about one-fifth of the vote.

The Independence Party nominee in Minnesota has not yet selected a nominee. The frontrunner for the nomination appears to be Tom Horner, a former newspaper reporter and editor who worked as press secretary and then chief of staff for then-Sen. David Durenberger (R).

But elsewhere, third-party nominees may prove to be less important than current speculation suggests, and even less important than in 2008.

A recently much-ballyhooed Quinnipiac University poll that was cited by some in the media as having potentially “bad news” for the GOP because it showed Republicans leading Democrats by 5 points in a head-to-head generic ballot test but losing to Democrats by 11 points in a three-way ballot test that includes a tea party representative is pretty much without value.

Polls are useful only when they reflect reality, and tea party candidates running as Independents or third-party nominees aren’t likely to have the resources or credibility to draw in the double digits when the fall rolls around. Most tea party types are mere pretenders.

Elsewhere, a third-party candidate probably cost then-state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) a Congressional seat in Ohio in 2008, but given the change in national mood, that’s not likely to be the case again this year when Stivers once again runs against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) in the state’s 15th district.

Certainly some races will turn out to be so close that an Independent could turn out to be a spoiler. But right now, that’s almost impossible to predict.

Interestingly, two of the three New England Independents are current or former officeholders, while the other, Cutler, has been in and around Washington for years. That puts to rest the idea that most Independent candidates are true outsiders.


This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on March 29, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Minnesota Senate: Gregoire Offers Recount Advice to Franken

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Al Franken certainly isn’t the first candidate to endure a long recount. Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) knows all about close races and recounts, and she recently offered her advice to the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee in the protracted Minnesota Senate race.

“I told him, don’t let [Republicans] market that something is wrong with the recount,” Gregoire said Tuesday, reflecting on her personal call to Franken. “Don’t let that happen. Recounts happen in America.”

Franken is in the middle of a recount in Minnesota and trails narrowly in his race against Sen. Norm Coleman (R). Gregoire was first elected in 2004, after trailing in two machine recounts by 129 votes and 47 votes, and finally prevailing by 129 votes in a third, manual recount.

“[People should] respect the recount process. It’s part of the system in our country,” Gregoire said in an interview Tuesday while on her way from the governors’ meeting with President-elect Barack Obama in Philadelphia to the annual Democratic Governors Association meeting in Washington, D.C.

Former state Sen. Dino Rossi, the 2004 Republican nominee, ran against Gregoire again in 2008, but the Democrat prevailed by a much wider margin, 53 percent to 47 percent.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on December 2, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Late-breaking House races shift political playing field

By Stuart Rothenberg

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Every election cycle, a handful of races not taken very seriously early on become truly competitive contests, and this year is no exception.

Every candidate, of course, has a scenario. But most of those scenarios -- and most of those candidates -- evaporate well before October.

In the case of the candidates below, their scenarios are now supported by both polling and successful fundraising. Given the national political environment, it isn't surprising that most of the late surprises are in Republican-held seats. Read the rest of the story on CNN.com.

Wild Cards Create Wild Scenarios in Congressional Races

By Stuart Rothenberg

While third-party and Independent candidates for president remain largely irrelevant to the battle between Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), three nontraditional candidates in other races are proving to be more important.

In Minnesota, former Sen. Dean Barkley, running as the Independence Party’s nominee, is receiving almost one in five votes in the state’s Senate race, according to at least one unreleased survey.

In Louisiana’s 6th district, African- American state Rep. Michael Jackson (D), who is running for Congress as an Independent, could affect the outcome. And in Florida’s 13th district, Independent Jan Schneider remains a problem for Democrat Christine Jennings in her effort to defeat Rep. Vern Buchanan (R).

Barkley, who served very briefly in the Senate when he was appointed by then-Gov. Jesse Ventura (I), is benefiting from the increasing bitterness in the race between the two major party nominees, incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and comedian/satirist-turned-political-hopeful Al Franken (D).

Franken and his allies have painted Coleman as a junket-taking ally of President Bush who is close to “Big Oil.” Coleman and his allies have argued that Franken is a crude loudmouth who has failed to pay his taxes and doesn’t have the temperament to be in the Senate.

Through Aug. 20 (in their pre-primary reports), Coleman had raised more than $12 million and spent $8.5 million, while Franken had raised $13 million and spent $10.7 million. Barkley, in contrast, had raised $14,374 and spent $9,302.

None of those figures, of course, include independent expenditures from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and other outside groups that are spending money on behalf of one of the major-party candidates.

Barkley is benefiting from the same phenomenon that helped Alice Kryzan win the Democratic primary in New York’s 26th district last month and Carol Moseley Braun win the Democratic Senate nomination in Illinois in 1992: voter revulsion from two candidates engaging in heavily negative campaigns.

While Barkley isn’t running the kind of full-scale campaign that would ordinarily get him much traction, he’s receiving plenty of “none of the above” votes from Minnesotans who are tired of the personal attacks coming from Coleman and Franken.

While this normally would benefit Coleman, since most elections are referendums on the incumbent and having two or more alternatives to the incumbent thereby divides the anti-incumbent vote, Barkley is doing so well that he must be taking votes away from both men.

I have long had doubts as to whether Franken could win the votes of a majority of Minnesota voters because of his controversial history. But Barkley’s strong showing means that the Democrat may be able to win the Senate race with as little as 40 percent of the vote, a number that does not seem unattainable for Franken.

Some Democratic operatives have been considering whether it might be necessary for Franken, or more likely the DSCC, to attack Barkley to try to pull liberal (or at least anti-Coleman) voters away from the Independence Party nominee.

But that’s a risky strategy that could, in theory, benefit Coleman, and it would seem less likely if Coleman and Franken are locked in a very tight race in the final weeks of the election campaign.

Barkley isn’t likely to win the Minnesota Senate race in November, no matter how nasty the race gets, but the two major-party candidates will need to try to figure out whether, and how, to deal with him as Election Day approaches.

In the Louisiana race, a recent poll shows Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux holding a comfortable lead over state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) and Independent Jackson, who was drawing just 9 percent of the vote.

But many observers doubt that Cazayoux will retain such a big lead in a Republican-leaning district, and they expect that his campaign, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, may have to take steps to keep African-American voters, who outnumber white Democrats in the district, to stick with Cazayoux rather than vote for Jackson.

Like Barkley, Jackson hasn’t raised or spent much money. As of Aug. 17, Jackson had just $12,603 in the bank after raising $132,950. But every vote Jackson wins is a vote he has taken from Cazayoux, and Democratic insiders have already considered whether they need presidential nominee Obama to make an explicit appeal to the district’s black voters to stick with Democratic nominee Cazayoux rather than backing Jackson (Obama has already endorsed Cazayoux).

In Florida, Schneider is also short of cash. But she has run three times, in 2002 and 2004 as the Democratic nominee for Congress, and she drew a respectable 38 percent of the vote in an unsuccessful 2006 Democratic primary race against Jennings.

Just as important, Schneider recently told a local newspaper that she would put $100,000 of her own money behind her bid in the next few weeks.

By the time Election Day rolls around, it’s possible that these third-party candidates will have faded into oblivion. But it’s more likely that they will continue to give at least one major-party candidate in each race heartburn, and they could well affect major-party strategies going down to the wire.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on October 2, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Will Schumer Get Democrats to 60 Seats This Cycle?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Nine Republican-held Senate seats continue to be at great risk, giving Democrats at least a theoretical possibility of getting to 60 seats after the November elections.

Increasingly, it appears that three seats could well determine whether the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee can reach that magic number: North Carolina, Minnesota and Mississippi.

Republican nominees in five GOP Senate seats are now running behind their Democratic opponents in at least some public polling: former Gov. Jim Gilmore in Virginia, Rep. Steve Pearce in New Mexico, former Rep. Bob Schaffer in Colorado, Sen. Ted Stevens in Alaska and Sen. John Sununu in New Hampshire.

One other GOP incumbent, Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith, appears to be in a difficult race with challenger Jeff Merkley (D), based both on some limited polling and Smith’s campaign decisions.

Two Republicans under attack, Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Minority Leader, appear to be comfortably ahead and likely to win.

That leaves races involving Sens. Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, Norm Coleman in Minnesota and Roger Wicker of Mississippi as the three most critical that will decide how close Senate Democrats get to 60 seats in the next Congress.

Of the five most vulnerable GOP seats, the two incumbents seeking re-election, Stevens and Sununu, appear to have the best chances for a surprise victory.

If the jury fails to convict Stevens in his upcoming trial, the Senate veteran would have a chance to win by reminding voters of his contributions to the state. But if he is convicted or if a decision is not yet reached by Nov. 4, Stevens’ chances seem very small.

Sununu has trailed for months in polls against challenger Jeanne Shaheen (D), but he remains confident he can remind voters why they preferred him six years ago to the former Granite State governor. Even some Democrats are worried about Shaheen, fearing she won’t be able to stand up to the Republican’s expected blows.

Smith’s recent two-ad sequence about an Oregon rapist and Merkley’s refusal to extend the statute of limitations for certain crimes is both compelling and curious.

Yes, the Smith ads drive home the point, but they are striking many observers as the sort of late-October ad that a campaign might use as a game-changer, not the kind of TV spot that a confident incumbent would run in mid-September.

Smith’s weak job ratings also ought to worry Republicans. Admittedly, Merkley isn’t a great challenger. The Democrat had only $570,000 on hand at the end of June, and he’s hardly a charismatic candidate. But with the DSCC’s resources, the mood for change, and Oregon’s Senate race turning into a referendum on Smith, the Republican clearly is in serious trouble.

Dole is increasingly regarded as political roadkill by campaign observers, but reports of her electoral demise may be greatly exaggerated.

Yes, Dole doesn’t have the financial advantage that she should at this time, hasn’t returned to her state often enough, and for too long failed to appreciate the danger that she was in. While her poll numbers were good initially, her popularity nose-dived after Democratic attacks on her ineffectiveness in the Senate.

But the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s independent expenditure effort has begun in the Tar Heel State, and Dole’s campaign has finally become more aggressive. Challenger Kay Hagan remained unscathed (and undefined) until recently, and the GOP attacks are likely to help Dole improve her position in the contest.

Still, that only means that the Republican Senator is in a dogfight and still seriously vulnerable, hardly the position Dole expected to find herself in. Of course, her state is better for a Republican than Oregon is for Smith, and unlike in Oregon, Republicans are only now starting to brand Dole’s Democratic challenger as a liberal big taxer.

In Minnesota, Coleman’s 10-point lead of the summer seems to have largely evaporated. Both Coleman and challenger Al Franken have high negatives, and that almost certainly benefits Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley. That doesn’t mean Barkley can win, but he becomes a tactical factor in the final six weeks of the race. Will Franken try to peel voters away from Barkley and to his own campaign?

Coleman may well lead by a few points (the same University of Connecticut poll that shows Franken up by a single point also showed him 3 ahead in January), and it wouldn’t be surprising if Republicans had more ammunition against Franken along the lines of embarrassing information that they used earlier.

Finally, Ronnie Musgrove now trails appointed Sen. Wicker narrowly, and Democrats remain hopeful about the contest. But anyone who has watched Mississippi politics for years ought to expect Republicans to use the 2001 referendum on changing the state’s flag against Musgrove as the campaign closes.

As governor, Musgrove proposed changing the state flag. Voters overwhelmingly defeated the proposal by a 2-1 margin, and Republican Haley Barbour used the issue to his benefit in ousting Musgrove in the 2003 gubernatorial race. Clarion-Ledger columnist Sid Salter has predicted that the issue is likely to re-emerge in this year’s Senate race.

The GOP’s only takeover opportunity, in Louisiana, is increasingly being forgotten. But while Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) currently has a comfortable lead over challenger John Kennedy (R), I’m still expecting the contest to close to the low to middle single digits, making for an interesting finish in the fall.

DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) is once again at the right place at the right time. He will have another terrific election cycle, and he deserves plenty of credit for fundraising and recruitment. But reaching 60 seats still requires him to run the table, and even in this environment, that’s not an easy task.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on September 22, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Politics, Baseball Intersect in St. Paul

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Four years ago, St. Paul, Minn., residents gave Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) a narrow victory over President Bush — a margin of 18 bobblehead dolls, to be precise.

The “Bobblelection” was a pre-election promotion by the St. Paul Saints, an independent professional baseball team partially owned by actor Bill Murray. The promotion invited fans to vote by choosing the figurine of their candidate of choice. Last month, Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama’s bobbling likeness prevailed over Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain 1,250-906 among Saints fans.

“We rarely repeat [promotions], but the first one was so successful,” Saints co-owner Mike Veeck said in an interview Wednesday.

Veeck, which rhymes with “wreck,” is part of one of baseball’s most famous front office families, known for its unique promotions — and for bucking the baseball establishment.

His father, Bill Veeck, owned the Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Browns and Cleveland Indians. He was the first to put players’ names on the backs of uniforms and planted the ivy on the outfield wall of Chicago’s Wrigley Field. The elder Veeck was elected to baseball’s Hall of Fame in 1991.

“If I hadn’t planned Disco Night, they probably would have put my dad in the Hall of Fame while he was still alive and could enjoy it,” Veeck said in the book “Slouching Toward Fargo,” which chronicled the Saints teams of the late 1990s.

In 1979, when his father owned the White Sox, Mike Veeck had the idea to grant fans 98-cent admission in exchange for their unwanted disco records. The records were then destroyed on the field between games of the doubleheader. But thousands of fans poured onto the field, riot police were called in, and the White Sox were forced to forfeit the second game because the playing field was unusable. It is one of the only forfeits in Major League Baseball history.

The Saints’ season ended last week, and Veeck has mixed feelings about the fact that his team’s schedule didn’t overlap with the Republican National Convention.

“I’m happy it didn’t overlap,” Veeck said, “We finished the season so strong.”

Even though the Saints finished in last place in the American Association’s Northern League, they averaged 6,500 fans in a stadium that comfortably fits 5,500. “I’m happy we finished when we did.”

On the other hand, Veeck realizes that the convention would have provided some natural opportunities for unique promotions. “I couldn’t be more sorry the season is over,” he said.

Veeck is a motivational speaker, author of the book “Fun is Good,” and has his hand in a total of six baseball teams as part of the Goldklang Group.

Even though Veeck has invited Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) to throw out the first pitch at a game for seven years running (unsuccessfully), he believes in some separation between baseball and state.

“Baseball should be apolitical,” Veeck explained. “It’s one place you should be all things to all people.”

“We’ve taken a strong stance on causes rather than people,” he continued.

In 1997, the Saints signed Ila Borders, the first female professional player in integrated men’s baseball. Borders began her collegiate career at Vanguard University of Southern California and was the first woman granted a scholarship to a men’s baseball team. As owner of the Indians, Veeck’s father signed the American League’s first black player, Larry Doby, in 1947.

The Saints, who are not affiliated with a major league baseball team, are known for giving well-known players second chances — and sometimes, their last chances — including Darryl Strawberry and Steve Howe. Jack Morris, Glenn Davis, and Kevin Millar also played for the team. Boston Red Sox outfielder J.D. Drew played for the Saints in 1997 and 1998 while in a contract dispute with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Bush has his own connection to the team. Former Saints manager Marty Scott was the one-time director of the Texas Rangers farm system.

Of course, sometimes the intersection of baseball and politics is unavoidable.

When now-Sen. Norm Coleman (R) was mayor of St. Paul, he and Veeck advocated for a new baseball stadium along the Mississippi River, but the city’s residents were not receptive. “Foolishly I wanted to [build the new stadium] too,” Veeck remembered. “Unfortunately fans had a different idea.”

Veeck subsequently rescinded his support, leaving Coleman alone and unhappy with the baseball owner.

“I just put him on the end of the limb and sawed it off,” Veeck candidly said about the situation.

But Veeck glowed about the job Coleman did in St. Paul. “He was absolutely spectacular to deal with,” Veeck said. “He understood the Saints.”

He also applauded Coleman’s efforts to build the Xcel Energy Center, the hockey-arena-turned-convention-hub in downtown St. Paul.

“Many politicians were asleep at the wheel, but Norm drove that thing,” Veeck said. “No matter what anyone says, that was pure Norm Coleman.”

The Republican Senator has made “bringing hockey back” to the Twin Cities a staple of his re-election campaign. In one television ad, a group of guys at a bowling alley repeat the mantra as part of Coleman’s key accomplishments.The National Hockey League’s Minnesota North Stars left for Texas in 1993, but the expansion Minnesota Wild began play in 2000 during Coleman’s tenure.

When asked about entering politics himself, Veeck demurred. “I have so many skeletons,” he said. “I don’t even bother putting them in the closet.”

This story first appeared in Roll Call on September 4, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Stassen’s Son, Obama Fan, Recalls Conventions Past

By Nathan L. Gonzales

In 1940, young Minnesota Gov. Harold Stassen (R) gave the keynote address at the Republican National Convention that vaulted him into the national political spotlight. His son Glen was only 4 years old at the time, but he would have a front-row seat for his father’s long political career.

But Glen Stassen isn’t anywhere near the GOP convention this time, even though it is in his home state. He has contributed to Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) presidential campaign.

“Dad was an excellent speaker all his life,” Stassen reflected, comparing his father’s 1940 speech to Obama’s 2004 convention speech, which thrust the then-42-year-old Illinois state Senator into the national spotlight. Harold Stassen was 33 years old at the time, and was fresh off his election as governor in 1938. He won re-election in 1940 and 1942, but resigned a year later to join the military during World War II.

At the 1940 convention, Stassen was floor chairman for Wendell Wilkie and helped the Indiana attorney secure the GOP presidential nomination after six ballots. Eight years later, Stassen ran for president for the first time.

In 1948, Stassen came close to winning the GOP nomination, defeating establishment candidate Thomas Dewey, who also had been the party’s 1944 presidential nominee, in the key Wisconsin and Nebraska primaries, and performing better in general election matchups against President Harry Truman (D). But Stassen, who was part of the liberal wing of the Republican Party, lost Ohio to native son and conservative Sen. Robert Taft and Oregon to Dewey, who wound up with the nomination again.

Glen Stassen was 12 years old.

Stassen ran for president again four years later, but ended up helping Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) secure the nomination. Stassen’s credentials committee representative, future Supreme Court Chief Justice Warren Burger, helped shift the momentum from Taft by seating the Texas and Mississippi delegations for Eisenhower.

“I remember dad calling to the Minnesota delegation, releasing them to put Ike over the top,” Glen Stassen said, recalling his view in the balcony. “Half of the people were celebrating while the Taft supporters were crestfallen.”

That was the closest Stassen would get to the GOP nomination in a career that would include a total of nine presidential runs. He last received votes at a Republican convention in 1968.

Combined with his runs for the U.S. House in Minnesota, governor of Pennsylvania (twice) and other offices, Stassen became known as the classic perennial candidate.

He didn’t run for president in 1972, but pushed President Richard Nixon (R) for the removal of troops from Vietnam.

“It was a bad time,” his son recalled. “I was worried for dad and for the nation.”

Today, Glen Stassen is a theologian, ethicist and author. He worked for 20 years as a professor at Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, and is currently the Lewis B. Smedes professor of Christian ethics at Fuller Theological Seminary. His book “Just Peacemaking: the New Paradigm for the Ethics of Peace and War,” is in its third printing.

“His lifelong commitment to peacemaking clearly influenced my same commitment,” Stassen said of his father.

Stassen isn’t officially backing a candidate in this election, but he donated $500 to Obama’s campaign in March.

He has contributed to the Democratic National Committee, former Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minn.) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) in the past as well.

“I am a theological ethicist in a theological seminary, which is somewhat like being a pastor. I don’t declare for political candidates,” Stassen explained. “I do declare on issues. Our nation is so polarized now in economic injustice, in war and peace policies, in negative attack smears that distract from the real issues of injustice and peacemaking. We desperately need healing.”

Harold Stassen died in Bloomington, Minn., in 2001, at the age of 93. The Stassen Building is located in the State Capitol complex in St. Paul, not far from where the convention is taking place in the Xcel Energy Center.


This story first appeared in Roll Call on September 3, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

NRSC Finally Joins DSCC on the Air

By Nathan L. Gonzales

The National Republican Senatorial Committee launched its first television ads of the cycle this week, with spots in New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The North Carolina spot plays off the Olympics and attacks Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s (R) opponent, state Sen. Kay Hagan (D). “What if they gave gold medals for financial irresponsibility? The gold medal goes to Kay Hagan!” according to the ad, which goes on to “award” gold medals to Hagan for “government waste” and “twisting the truth.”

The New Hampshire ad doesn’t mention Republican Sen. John Sununu, arguably the most vulnerable Senate incumbent in the country, but it goes after his opponent, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) instead.

“There’s one problem in Washington where politicians in both parties agree. It’s spending, and it’s out of control. And Jeanne Shaheen says she can change it?” the ad begins. “As governor, Jeanne Shaheen doubled state spending. Shaheen increased the state budget by a billion dollars.

“Jeanne Shaheen and big spending in Washington, she’d fit right in.”

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is also up with a new ad in the Granite State. “In Washington, Senators have a choice. They can fight for powerful special interests ... or stand up for the middle class,” the ad begins.

“John Sununu has sided with George Bush to protect the special interests,” the ad continues, citing specific votes on insurance companies and Medicare.

And while Republicans gather in St. Paul, Minn., for the Republican National Convention, the DSCC has a new ad against Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman (R) titled “Running Man.”

“From the producers of the Iraq War, comes the story of one man, trying to outrun his own past,” according to the ad, which looks like a movie trailer, “Sen. Norm Coleman is the running man.”

The ad goes on to highlight Coleman’s 86 percent voting record with President Bush, an obligatory mention in just about every Democratic ad this cycle, and ends, “This fall, Norm Coleman can run, but can he hide who he truly is?”


This item first appeared on RollCall.com on September 2, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Minnesota Senate & Alabama 5

The August 22, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

PUBLISHING NOTE: As our long-time readers are well aware, we alter our publication schedule toward the end of every election year to provide the fullest coverage before Election Day. After the conventions, we plan to publish three times each in September and October.

Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...

Minnesota Senate: No Laughing Matter
By Nathan L. Gonzales

With comedian Al Franken in the mix, everyone expected Minnesota’s Senate race to be anything but ordinary. With two and half months to go, it’s certainly been a roller coaster and remains one of the most competitive races in the country.

Norm Coleman (R) is one of the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbents and is working hard to distance himself from an unpopular President in a state most likely to be carried by Barack Obama (D).

At the beginning of the cycle, Republicans were delighted at the prospects of facing Franken and his treasure trove of risqué jokes and writings. But even though he started the race with high unfavorables, that got even worse over the spring, Franken is raising a ton of money and keeping the heat on Coleman.

In a week, all eyes will turn to Minnesota for the Republican National Convention, but even after the delegates leave the state, keep your eyes on one of the most exciting Senate races in the country. Subscribers get the whole story in the print edition.


Alabama 5: Rare Defensive Posture

Democratic open seats are rare these days. But Republicans are on the offensive in Alabama’s 5th District, even though they have never held the seat.

Republicans nominated Wayne Parker (R), who has lost two races to out-going conservative Cong. Bud Cramer (D), and are looking forward to the open seat race. Meanwhile, Democratic state Sen. Parker Griffith is running as Cramer’s protégé and looking to keep the seat in Democratic hands. Subscribers get the whole story in the print edition.

For House Races Now, It’s All a Question of Money

By Stuart Rothenberg

It’s no longer the time for mere scenarios or fundraising polling memos. Now is the time for serious candidates to show they have the fundraising energy and prowess to run top-shelf campaigns.

The latest round of fundraising numbers shows that some Congressional hopefuls have established themselves as credible candidates, while others need to find an explanation for their weak totals.

The weakest showings? How about three of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “emerging races,” all of which might be migrating to a new DCCC submerging races category?

Kentucky 2nd district hopeful David Boswell was promoted by some Democrats as a strong contender for retiring Rep. Ron Lewis’ (R) open seat. Yes, said Democrats about the Owensboro-Bowling Green district, it’s conservative, but the Democratic state Senator is a good fit for it.

Well, Boswell’s June 30 cash-on-hand total of $45,000 should end that talk. Republican nominee Brett Guthrie’s $661,000 in the bank means that, barring a total turnaround of finances, this race is over.

A few weeks ago, I wrote favorably about Kathy Dahlkemper (D), who is taking on veteran incumbent Rep. Phil English (R) in Pennsylvania’s 3rd district. Dahlkemper had plenty of time and reason to haul in cash after her April 22 primary win, but instead she raised $203,000 in the quarter and ended June with a disappointing $128,000. English had $787,000 in the bank.

Dahlkemper has some personal money, and polling suggests that she’s very much still in the race. But her fundraising numbers are disappointing.

I’ve heard a bit of a buzz recently about Democrat Steve Sarvi’s challenge to Rep. John Kline in Minnesota’s 2nd district. After seeing that Sarvi raised $147,000 in the second quarter and ended June with $98,000 in the bank, I have to figure that buzz is the winding down of the battery in the Democrat’s electric razor rather than excitement about his prospects.

Incredibly, Sarvi’s campaign is bragging about the numbers. Here’s what the candidate’s Web site said: “The campaign’s 2nd Quarter numbers represent nearly a two-and-a-half fold increase on its previous quarter and a three-fold increase on its 4th Quarter 2007 results.” Translation: The campaign’s unimpressive second-quarter numbers weren’t as bad as its pathetic first-quarter numbers and its even worse fourth-quarter of 2007 numbers.

If there was any doubt about New York’s open 25th district, the June 30 numbers should end it. Republican Dale Sweetland is his party’s likely nominee, but with an anemic campaign bank account of $108,000 against Democrat Dan Maffei’s $962,000, this seat looks comfortably Democratic.

Elsewhere, El Tinklenberg (D) in Minnesota’s 6th district showed $225,000 in the bank to Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann’s $1.3 million.

Then there is the case of Larry Kissell in North Carolina’s 8th district, who is rapidly getting the reputation of being the Democrats’ John Hostettler. Hostettler, you may remember, is the former Republican Congressman who didn’t like raising money — so he didn’t. Every two years, the National Republican Congressional Committee had to bail out Hostettler by spending its cash on his re-election. Finally, in 2006, he lost. Some Republicans were less than upset.

Kissell, who lost narrowly last time and complained that he received little support from the DCCC in 2006 (which is true), promised to raise more money this time. The DCCC showed early interest in the race, no doubt to make up for its inactivity last time. But Kissell’s fundraising this time has been stunningly inadequate. He may still win, but not because of anything he has done in fundraising.

Not all poor June 30 cash-on-hand numbers are as bad as they seem. New Jersey Republicans Chris Myers (3rd district) and Leonard Lance (7th district) have bank accounts that are scary. But they both had to spend heavily to win primaries that took place in early June, and their general election fundraising has only now begun. Give them a full quarter to see what their cash looks like.

I’ve also heard some talk that state Sen. Don Cravins Jr. (D) might give Rep. Charles Boustany (R) a fight in Louisiana’s 7th district, but Cravins just decided he wanted to run, and his $104,000 in cash on hand isn’t enough to make the Republican give a second look to the challenger quite yet.

If some candidates merit identification for their weak fundraising, others deserve attention for their strong efforts.

Rep. Mark Kirk (R) showed more than $2.8 million in the bank on June 30, and his opponent in Illinois’ 10th district, Dan Seals (D), had $1.17 million on hand. Two New Jersey Democrats running for open seats, John Adler (3rd) and Linda Stender (7th) each had more than $1.2 million in the bank.

In Florida’s 21st district, incumbent Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) had more than $1.7 million on hand, while challenger Raul Martinez (D) showed more than $1 million in the bank. Washington 8th district Democratic challenger Darcy Burner had almost $1.25 million in the bank, and Virginia’s 11th district Republican Keith Fimian had $1 million on hand on June 30. And Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski showed more than $2.1 million on hand.

Of course, these are just a few of the strong fundraisers. There are many others. But in a year where there seems to be so much money, it is the underperformers who are the real story.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on July 21, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Are Senate Races Moving in One Partisan Direction?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Senate election cycles normally take one of two paths. Either all the close races fall toward one party in a political “wave,” or individual races are decided by race-specific factors, particularly the quality of the candidates, the power of incumbency and local issues.

We’ve had cycles when both parties have suffered a substantial number of defeats with only a minimal net change of Senate seats (1976 and 1978 are prime examples), but that’s not going to happen this cycle. Republicans have only a single reasonable opportunity for a takeover this year.

We’ve had four noteworthy Senate “waves” in the past 28 years, in 2006, 1994, 1986 and 1980, and it’s possible that we’ll see another one this year. But it’s also possible that all the talk about Democratic Senate opportunities is just a bit over-hyped, and that Democrats will have a good year, not a great one.

One way of anticipating whether a wave is likely to develop is to monitor competitive Senate contests periodically to determine whether they are moving in one direction. That’s what I intend to do in this column. Of course, any wave may not show itself until after the two presidential nominating conventions. Still, the way individual Senate races move in the near term may offer some clue about a trend.

I must begin with one caveat: In evaluating races, I do not factor in certain widely circulated polls, including those conducted by Rasmussen Reports, that I regard as less reliable. (In other words, I treat some polls as if they don’t even exist.)

Democrats continue to be well- positioned to take over three GOP-held seats: open seats in Virginia and New Mexico, and Sen. John Sununu’s seat in New Hampshire. There is no evidence of significant movement in any of those contests, though Republicans continue to insist that Sununu’s race will close.

Democrats, of course, don’t need movement in any of the contests. They lead in all three.

The fourth most vulnerable Senate seat, the open Republican seat in Colorado, remains competitive. But given the state’s recent political behavior and the national mood, GOP insiders have little reason to be optimistic about their chances.

The next most vulnerable Senate seat, in Minnesota, has moved toward the Republicans in recent weeks. GOP strategists have successfully put presumptive Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Al Franken on the defensive, both over his nonpayment of certain taxes and, more importantly, a variety of statements he has made over the years.

Franken has defended his remarks by insisting that they were part of his shtick and intended as satire, not statements of his beliefs. But his language has been crude and his comedy often biting, and even some Democratic officeholders have expressed concern about his judgment.

Republican Sen. Norm Coleman has benefited in the polls of late, and even though Franken has time to change the dynamic of the race, it now seems likely that the comedian turned politician will have to defend himself repeatedly over the next four months. At the very least, that puts the challenger constantly on the defensive, improving Coleman’s prospects.

There are no signs of movement in Alaska, and that’s good news for Democrats. Polls continue to show challenger Mark Begich (D) leading Sen. Ted Stevens (R) narrowly. The longer that race stays tight, the better for Democrats, who are trying to knock off a state political icon.

The fact that the Maine race has not closed in surveys widely viewed as reliable is disappointing news for Democrats. GOP Sen. Susan Collins continues to be well-regarded and has a comfortable lead over her challenger, Rep. Tom Allen (D). Sitting in a blue state that went for Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Collins would seem to be a perfect target in a “wave” election, but so far, her prospects are undimmed.

Democrats remain upbeat about Jeff Merkley’s chances of ousting Sen. Gordon Smith in Oregon, but I’m not convinced that they are any closer to doing that now than they were four or five months ago.

True, the recent decision by Independent John Frohmayer to drop his Senate candidacy is good news for Merkley. But it is difficult to see it as all that significant, especially since Democrats spent so much time and effort arguing that Frohmayer’s candidacy was inconsequential when he was a candidate. If they were right that he wasn’t going to be a factor in the race, they cannot now claim that his exit is all that important.

Still, this definitely is a race to watch for possible “wave” evidence, and Smith almost certainly will have a fight on his hands all the way to November.

If a wave develops, the three best places to watch may well be North Carolina, Kentucky and Mississippi. Democratic prospects in all three seem to have improved recently (especially after post-primary polling in North Carolina and Kentucky), giving the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee more options in the campaign’s final months.

Even Republicans seem increasingly nervous about Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.), who hasn’t released polling numbers since February and has been up on TV since late May. Dole’s opponent, state Sen. Kay Hagan (D), has some liabilities, but I have little doubt about her work ethic.

Finally, the Louisiana Senate race, pitting incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) against her GOP challenger, John Kennedy, hasn’t changed at all. Polls show the Senator ahead, but the fundamentals almost guarantee a close race.

In sum, developments in two states, Minnesota and Maine, should have Republicans optimistic, while Democrats have reasons to be happy about some longer-shot races, as well as their top takeover opportunities.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on June 23, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Change in Congress Comes in All Ages and Sizes

By Nathan L. Gonzales

While age is an underlying issue in the presidential contest, Democrats have candidates young and old running as change agents at the Congressional level.

Former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (D), 70, is a strong challenger to Rep. Sam Graves (R), 44, in Missouri’s 6th district. Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche (D) just turned 65, but is in a strong position to win the Republican open seat in Louisiana’s 4th district.

In New Jersey’s 5th, blind rabbi Dennis Shulman (D), 58, is a longer-shot challenger to Rep. Scott Garrett (R). And in Florida’s 21st district, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez (D), 59, is giving Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) his first real race in years.

Arizona Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) was a 67-year-old freshman in the 110th Congress, after defeating Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth last cycle.

On the flip side, Democrats also have a number of candidates born right around the time Jimmy Carter was elected president. Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia (D), 30, stands a good chance of coming to Congress next year as he tries to take over the very competitive Republican open seat in Minnesota’s 3rd district.

In Colorado’s 2nd district, wealthy businessman Jared Polis, 33, will come to Congress if he can make it out of the crowded Democratic primary on Aug. 12. Iraq War veteran Jon Powers (D), 29, also faces a competitive primary in New York’s 26th district. But if he’s the nominee, Powers will also face a general election fight.

Glenn Nye (D), 33, is hoping to knock off Rep. Thelma Drake (R) in Virginia’s 2nd district, while attorney Nick Leibham (D), 34, is hoping to oust Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) in California’s 50th.

André Carson, 33, was elected to Congress earlier this year in a special election to replace his grandmother, the late Rep. Julia Carson (D), in Indiana’s7th district. He defeated 30-year-old state Rep. Jon Elrod (R), who recently announced he was dropping out of the general election race.

Republicans have their own roster of youthful candidates. Duncan D. Hunter (R), 31, is a virtual lock to replace his father in California’s 52nd district.

Illinois state Rep. Aaron Schock (R), 27, could be the youngest Member of the next Congress. He’s favored in the fall, but he still has to win downstate Illinois’s 18th district seat, which is being vacated by Rep. Ray LaHood (R).

In New York’s 1st district, 28-year-old Iraq War veteran Lee Zeldin (R) is a long shot against incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop (D).

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on June 19, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Good Candidates for House Come in All Shapes and Sizes

By Stuart Rothenberg

Every election cycle, I meet a lot of candidates running for the U.S. House of Representatives. Some, in fact many, have more liabilities than assets. But some actually impress me. This column is about four of them, and I’d advise keeping an eye on each at least until November.

Gregg Harper (R), Mississippi’s 3rd district. An attorney and former Rankin County Republican chairman, Harper, 52, did what many candidates promise to do but, in fact, don’t. He put together a successful grass-roots campaign.

With one of his primary opponents flush with money and the other a well-known state Senator who had the governor’s media consultant at his disposal, Harper was the long-shot Republican hopeful with little cash and no district-wide recognition.

But his years toiling in Republican political vineyards — whether working in phone banks for a Mississippi GOP candidate in 1978, serving as a Republican observer of the Florida recount in 2000 or working as a legal volunteer for President Bush’s campaign in Ohio in 2004 — paid off.

Harper is straightforward, astute and earnest. It’s clear that he is an extremely hard worker, and that people who meet him are willing to go to work to help him. That’s a very good sign.

In a rarity these days, Harper refused to use negative information about one of his opponents. But don’t think Gregg Harper is politically naive. He isn’t. And he will win the open seat in November.

Betsy Markey (D), Colorado’s 4th district. If I were Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R), I’d be very, very worried about challenger Markey.

Before moving to Colorado in the 1990s, Markey spent much of her time in and around the nation’s capital, whether working on Capitol Hill for then-Rep. Herb Harris (D-Va.), in graduate school at American University, as a presidential management fellow working in the Treasury and State departments, or as a businesswoman living and working with her husband in the Maryland suburbs.

In Fort Collins, she briefly owned a coffee shop. She became Larimer County Democratic chairman in 2002 and then was hired by Sen. Ken Salazar (D) to be his regional director for northern and eastern Colorado, the part of the state in which she is running for Congress.

Unlike many candidates, Markey, 52, doesn’t sound like some robot regurgitating talking points and refusing to answer questions that might put her in an awkward position. She actually responded to questions only after listening to them and thinking about them. Amazing!

The Colorado Democrat is articulate and personable. I’m convinced she’ll run a solid campaign and prove to be an appealing alternative to Musgrave, who clearly has not bonded with a majority in the GOP-leaning district.

Erik Paulsen (R), Minnesota’s 3rd district. I wouldn’t say my interview with Erik Paulsen went well. I’d say it was spectacular. His response to a question on immigration policy was the single best answer that I have ever received — and I’ve certainly asked the same question to at least 100 other candidates.

Holding a degree in mathematics from St. Olaf College, Paulsen initially used his math background to work as a financial analyst for a cable TV shopping channel. But after a brief internship in the St. Paul office of then-Sen. Rudy Boschwitz (R) and a short stint as a field representative in Boschwitz’s re-election campaign, Paulsen opted for politics over the business world.

He eventually worked in a couple of capacities for Rep. Jim Ramstad (R), including as state director, before winning an open state legislative seat at the age of 29.

Paulsen, 43, is sharp, articulate and politically savvy without seeming overly ambitious or arrogant. He clearly thinks about policy and can talk about it without being boring or long-winded. He is one of the more politically appealing candidates that I have interviewed.

I haven’t met Paulsen’s Democratic opponent yet, so I can’t handicap his chances completely. But Paulsen definitely gives Republicans a strong nominee in their effort to hold a shaky open House seat.

Kathy Dahlkemper (D), Pennsylvania’s 3rd district. I’m not sure if Dahlkemper is quite in the same class with the other three candidates I’ve already mentioned, but, given her lack of political experience, she clearly has what it takes to be a top-tier challenger to Rep. Phil English (R).

A dietician by training, Dahlkemper, 50, joined her husband’s business, Dahlkemper Landscape Architects & Contractors, in 1997. The family business has been in Erie since 1955, and the Dahlkemper name is well-known and highly regarded in the area.

Dahlkemper’s other claim is that she co-founded the Lake Erie Arboretum. But when it comes to campaigns, she is a neophyte. That probably explains why she seemed to rely more on talking points than Paulsen or Markey.

But the Democrat scores well on sincerity, and she acts like your neighbor rather than a career politician. And unlike Markey, who has EMILY’s List support, Dahlkemper is a pro-life Democrat in a district with plenty of conservative Democrats.

A likable, articulate, common-sense citizen-politician, Dahlkemper has the tough job of trying to upset veteran English, who co-authored legislation that recently passed the House to extend unemployment benefits. She certainly is the underdog in the race, but English would be wise not to underestimate her appeal.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on June 19, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

New Print Edition: New Mexico Senate & Minnesota 3

The June 13, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...


New Mexico Senate: Simply Enchanting
By Nathan L. Gonzales

New Mexico will be one of the top presidential battlegrounds this fall, and Republicans are keeping their fingers crossed that the state hosts a hot Senate race as well.

Democrats cleared the field for Cong. Tom Udall, and he starts the general election with a significant lead over Republican Cong. Steve Pearce. Pearce just secured the GOP nomination on June 3 with a narrow victory over House colleague Heather Wilson.

GOP Sen. Pete Domenici’s retirement created the difficult open seat hold for the Republicans. And now, Pearce has to regroup, replenish his depleted campaign funds, and figure out a way to run against the national environment that still favors the Democrats. For the rest of the story, you must subscribe to the print edition.

Minnesota 3: Toss-Up

If you’re looking for a truly toss-up race in a swing district, look no further than Minnesota’s 3rd District.

The suburban Minneapolis district is precisely the type of territory and district that Democrats have experienced recent electoral success. And moderate Cong. Jim Ramstad’s (R) retirement left this seat prime for the picking.

But even in this environment, the race is not a shoo-in for the Democrats. Their nominee, Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia is articulate and energetic, but also young and unknown.

The Republicans have Erik Paulsen, a former state House majority leader who votes like a conservative but doesn’t breathe fire or focus on social issues. So voters will have to replace a centrist like Ramstad with a candidate on either side of his ideology.

The 3rd District race may sit in the shadow of the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and comedian Al Franken (DFL) for most of the fall, but may actually be a better bellwether as to how bad Election Night really is for the Republicans. For the rest of the story, you must subscribe to the print edition.

Open Season in 2010

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Democrats aren’t losing much sleep over their open seats this cycle. But 2010 may be a whole different story.

This year, Democrats control only seven of the 31 open seats in the House. They simply aren’t leaving Washington, D.C., the way the Republicans are, whether it’s due to excitement about the new majorities or peer pressure.

But it also could be due to a lack of opportunity. Along with no open Senate seats on the Democratic side, a mere 11 governorships are up this cycle (including only three open seats), and Democratic Members of Congress aren’t running for any of them.

Contrast that with 2010, when 36 governorships will be on the ballot, including at least 19 open seats. If Democratic House Members make the move, the Democratic Governors Association stands to benefit while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee can only wait and prepare to defend.

“We are fortunate to have such a talented pool of possible 2010 candidates, and we are confident that Democrats’ interests are aligned,” said DGA press secretary Brian Namey. “The first step in building a long-term majority in Congress is electing Democratic governors.”

In South Dakota, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) is expected to run for the state’s open governorship. Her family has a long political history in the state that includes her grandfather, former Gov. Ralph Herseth, and grandmother, former Secretary of State Lorna Herseth. The Congresswoman’s father, Lars Herseth, was a longtime state legislator who lost his own gubernatorial bid in 1986. Herseth Sandlin could run in part to redress his loss.

Herseth Sandlin already represents the entire state in her at-large district, and would be a formidable gubernatorial candidate. But her seat will be a tough hold for the DCCC. She had the family history in the state and one statewide bid under her belt before winning under unusual circumstances.

She lost her first House race in 2002 to former Gov. Bill Janklow (R), earning 46 percent. But Janklow resigned the seat in January 2004 after killing a motorcyclist in a car crash and being convicted of second-degree manslaughter. Herseth Sandlin won the subsequent June special election with 51 percent over former state Sen. Larry Diedrich (R). She won a full term, 53 percent to 46 percent in a rematch five months later, and cruised to re-election in the previous cycle.

But South Dakota still is a Republican state, and Democrats will struggle to find someone to follow Herseth Sandlin in the House. President Bush carried the state 60 percent to 38 percent in 2004.

In Tennessee, Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) is mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate. If he chooses to run, he may face primary opposition from former Rep. Harold Ford Jr., the 2006 Senate nominee, or former Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell.

Bush did well in Davis’ 4th district, carrying 22 of 24 counties and winning it 58 percent to 41 percent. Davis initially won the seat in 2002, when GOP Rep. Van Hilleary decided to run for governor. The Blue Dog Democrat was elected with 52 percent that year and re-elected with 55 percent two years later in a district that stretches across central Tennessee from the Kentucky border south to Alabama and Georgia.

Republicans are trying to make some noise in the district this cycle with businessman Monty Lankford (R), but their best shot would be in an open seat. Democrats likely would need another socially conservative candidate to keep the open seat.

Rep. Artur Davis (D) is sitting on $881,000 in campaign cash without a serious 2008 race and is a potential gubernatorial candidate in Alabama next cycle. But his 7th district seat would not be at risk for a takeover. The district’s population is 62 percent black, and Bush received only 35 percent there in 2004.

Other Democratic districts could become competitive, particularly in a midterm election of a Democratic president, if Members vacate them.

Minnesota Rep. Tim Walz (D) is focused on re-election this cycle to his 1st district seat, but he’s also mentioned as a future gubernatorial candidate. Walz was swept in with the Democratic wave of 2006, defeating then-Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) with 53 percent, in a district that Bush carried by 4 points. Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) is also mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2010.

Rep. Mike Michaud (D) won Maine’s 2nd district in 2002 when John Baldacci (D) vacated the seat to run for governor. Even though Michaud has had two easy re-elections, the district could be competitive once again. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) used to represent the district, and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won it by only 6 points in the 2004 White House election. Baldacci will be term-limited as governor next cycle and Michaud is mentioned as a potential candidate.

Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) is also mentioned as a potential 2010 statewide candidate. The 69-year-old Congressman might be eyeing the governorship because it doesn’t look as if either of Hawaii’s Senate seats is opening up anytime soon. Abercrombie had close races in both 1994 (54 percent) and 1996 (50 percent), and Kerry won the district with only 53 percent in 2004. Under the right circumstances, the seat could become competitive.

Regardless of who runs for governor, the DGA is already preparing and planning for next cycle with its Project 2010. The committee is on pace to break its 2006 fundraising record in 2008, even though this year is considered an “off-cycle” for gubernatorial races. And with so few competitive races this year, the DGA will finish the cycle with money in the bank.

Of course, House Democrats aren’t the only ones eyeing governorships.

“If you’re a member of the minority, sitting in Congress today, you might take a gamble on becoming a chief executive,” said GOP consultant Phil Musser, the former executive director of the Republican Governors Association.

Oregon Rep. Greg Walden (R) is a potential gubernatorial candidate, and is already being attacked by the Oregon Democratic Party. But the National Republican Congressional Committee is not likely to have much trouble holding his massive 2nd district seat. Bush won the district with 61 percent in 2004 and the rural area is conservative, despite significant growth in the Bend area.

In New York, Rep. Peter King (R) is publicly exploring a gubernatorial bid. He’s represented the Long Island-based 3rd district since 1992, and Republicans would likely have some difficulty holding the seat in the current political environment. Bush won the district by only 5 points in 2004, and Empire State Republicans are becoming an endangered species in the Congressional delegation. King is publicly looking, but he may not actually make the jump next cycle.

Other Republican Members who are potential gubernatorial candidates include Candice Miller (Mich.), Zach Wamp (Tenn.) and Darrell Issa (Calif.), who was pushed aside during the 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis (D) but still contributed financially to the effort to oust Davis.

At this early stage, there look to be more Republican Senators seriously eyeing governorships. Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is a strong bet to run for governor of Kansas next cycle, simultaneously abiding by his term-limits pledge. He’ll be looking to replace term- limited Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) who will, in turn, receive heavy pressure to run for Brownback’s Senate seat, creating a rare Democratic opportunity and National Republican Senatorial Committee headache in Kansas.

Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) is widely expected to run for governor in 2010, replacing Gov. Sonny Perdue (R). Isakson ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1990 and would need to get past state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R), who has already announced for the race. At one point, Perdue was mentioned as a Senate candidate for Isakson’s seat, but that scenario may be in doubt.

Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison could be headed for a Republican primary for governor as well, where she could face off against incumbent Gov. Rick Perry and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on May 1, 2008. Copyright 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

By Stuart Rothenberg

A significant number of retirements since my last Dangerous Dozen (Oct. 25, 2007) has shuffled the list and shows why the fight for the House is a one-sided battle, with Democrats having most of the targets.

Here are the dozen most vulnerable open House seats, starting with the most likely seats to flip. The first three districts are all likely to go Democratic and are in a class of their own.

Illinois’ 11th: State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D) would be a formidable nominee in any case, but Republican prospects weren’t helped when their primary winner, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, dropped out of the race. Local GOP leaders are expected to select businessman Martin Ozinga III to replace Baldermann as the party’s nominee. The district is competitive (President Bush carried it by 7 points in 2004).

New York’s 25th: Republican Rep. Jim Walsh (R) barely beat challenger Dan Maffei (D) last time, and Walsh’s decision to retire gives Maffei a clear shot this time in the marginal upstate district. The race for the Republican nomination was scrambled when Peter Cappuccilli Jr., the former director of the New York State Fair, dropped his bid after having a mild stroke. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won the district by 2 points in 2004.

Virginia’s 11th: Rep. Tom Davis’ (R) retirement and the general drift of Washington, D.C.’s Virginia suburbs toward the Democrats create a significant problem for the GOP. Gerry Connolly, who chairs the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, begins with an edge for the Democratic nomination over former Rep. Leslie Byrne. The most-mentioned Republican right now is businessman Keith Fimian, who has impressed in early fundraising and has invested some of his own money in the race.

Ohio’s 16th: Republican Rep. Ralph Regula’s retirement wasn’t a total surprise in a district that went for Bush by 8 points (54 percent to 46 percent) in 2004. State Sen. John Boccieri should be a strong Democratic nominee, while the Republican nominee, state Sen. Kirk Schuring, may have problems holding his party’s base.

Arizona’s 1st: GOP strategists breathed a sigh of relief when embattled Rep. Rick Renzi (R) announced he wouldn’t seek re-election, but this district is still in play. Former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is the favorite in the Democratic race, though she faces a fight for her party’s nomination from former TV personality Mary Kim Titla and attorney Howard Shanker. The Republican race pits conservative activist Sydney Hay against state Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes, though former state Senate President Ken Bennett is reconsidering his earlier decision not to run. Bush won the district by 8 points in 2004.

Alabama’s 5th: Rep. Bud Cramer’s retirement creates a rare Democratic open-seat problem this cycle. His North Alabama district is only 17 percent black, and Bush carried it with 60 percent four years ago. Businessman Wayne Parker, who lost a squeaker to Cramer in 1994 (and by a larger margin in 1996) is running for the GOP nomination, while state Sen. Parker Griffith has entered the Democratic race.

New Jersey’s 3rd: Rep. Jim Saxton’s (R) retirement gives Democrats another target in the Northeast. State Sen. John Adler (D) also gives them a formidable nominee. Local Republicans are split, with Lockheed Vice President Chris Myers having the support of Saxton and the important Burlington County GOP. Myers faces Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly for the GOP nomination. The district is competitive.

Minnesota’s 3rd: Rep. Jim Ramstad’s (R) retirement adds to Republican woes given the competitiveness of the suburban district. The district went for Bush by 3 points in 2004. State Sen. Terri Bonoff is having a surprisingly hard time trying to fend off Ashwin Madia, an attorney and Iraq War veteran, for the Democratic nomination, while state Rep. Erik Paulsen is expected to be the GOP nominee.

New Mexico’s 1st: Republican Rep. Heather Wilson’s run for the Senate opens up a seat that she has held, though with significant difficulty, since a June 1998 special election. Last year, she was re-elected by 861 votes. Three Democrats are in the race: former Albuquerque Councilor Martin Heinrich, former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham and former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron. But Republicans are upbeat about their chances, with Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White the favorite of party insiders. Kerry carried the district with 51 percent in 2004.

Ohio’s 15th: Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce barely held on last time, defeating Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by 1,000 votes in a come-from-behind win. Kilroy is back, but Pryce has decided to call it quits. State Sen. Steve Stivers (R) initially passed on the race but has changed his mind. He should be a formidable candidate in November. While Bush barely squeezed by Kerry four years ago, Franklin County (Columbus) has been moving toward the Democrats.

Oregon’s 5th: Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley’s retirement gives Republicans a competitive Democratic seat to shoot at. Each party has a primary. For the Democrats, it’s state Sen. Kurt Schrader and former gubernatorial aide Steve Marks, and for the GOP it is former party Chairman Kevin Mannix and ’06 nominee Mike Erickson. Bush carried the district narrowly in 2004.

New Jersey’s 7th: State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) is taking her second shot at the seat after losing to Rep. Mike Ferguson (R) by less than 2 points in 2006. With Ferguson retiring, she'll face either state Sen. Leonard Lance (R) or Kate Whitman (R), daughter of the former governor, in the general election. Bush carried the district with 53 percent in 2004, leaving another GOP headache.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on April 7, 2008. Copyright 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Minnesota Senate: New Group Airs Pro-Coleman Issue Ad

By Stuart Rothenberg

American Future Fund, a 501 (c) (4) group based in Iowa, will begin airing a 30-second TV ad on Wednesday March 19 praising the efforts of Senator Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) and urging viewers to call him to “thank him for his agenda for Minnesota.”

The ad opens by asserting that Coleman, who faces a difficult reelection race later this year, “teamed with Amy Klobuchar to secure $250 million in funding to rebuild the 35W bridge.”

It goes on to say that “Coleman has worked with Republicans and Democrats to make college more affordable, expand opportunities for our soldiers and National Guard returning home, and crack down on predatory lenders.”

The ad ends by calling the Republican Senator “an independent voice for Minnesota.”

The spot never identifies Klobuchar as a Democrat or Coleman as a Republican.



The ad was produced by highly regarded GOP media consultant Larry McCarthy of McCarthy Marcus Hennings for American Future Fund, which is “a multi-state issues advocacy group designed to effectively communicate conservative and free market ideals,” according to information provided by someone close to the group.

The group has not yet identified other states where it will run ads.

Among others associated with the group are pollster Jan Van Lohuizen of Voter Consumer Research (whose past and present clients have included President George W. Bush, Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell), veteran GOP legal advisor Ben Ginsberg of Patton Boggs and former Republican Governors Association (RGA) executive director Ed Tobin.

Ginsberg, at one time or another, has been counsel to the Bush-Cheney campaign, the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the RGA.

The Coleman spot will run in the Minneapolis and Mankato markets. According to knowledgeable sources, the ad will run “at very significant levels” in both markets for about three weeks.

Is Al Franken Laughing All the Way to a Senate Seat?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Often, when comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken’s name comes up these days, Republicans just snicker. Then they say that despite all the national attention paid to his candidacy and notwithstanding his strong early fundraising, Franken can’t beat Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.).

Coleman, after all, is a polished political veteran and rising star who beat liberal icon Walter Mondale (D) five years ago. He is a high-energy political animal who understands issues and voters, insist his friends, and he isn’t likely to lose to a far-left celebrity who sometimes tosses around obscenities as if they were socially acceptable.

Well, I don’t necessarily expect Franken to defeat Coleman next year, but I’m not so sure I would dismiss the former “Saturday Night Live” writer/performer that quickly.

To face Coleman, Franken must first win the Democratic nomination. His chief competitor appears to be Mike Ciresi, 61, a wealthy attorney who has flirted with a number of races and who lost the 2000 Senate primary.

Ciresi has been endorsed by Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Minn.), as well as a handful of state legislators and current and former officeholders (Hennepin County Attorney Mike Freeman, ex-state Senate Majority Leader Roger Moe and ex-St. Paul Mayor George Latimer).

Franken, in contrast, has been endorsed by 26 state legislators, state Auditor Rebecca Otto and two unions. He is the darling of the left and raised more than $1.9 million in the past quarter, ending June with nearly $2 million banked.

Let’s assume for a moment that Franken becomes the nominee. Can he beat Coleman?

Remember, the question is not whether he is the best candidate to take on the GOP incumbent. Few people, including few Democratic strategists and operatives, think Franken is an ideal challenger. The question is whether he can win, or, as some insist, is he so flawed, so far left, so foulmouthed that he can’t possibly win?

I don’t know if Franken will win, but I definitely think he can win — under the right circumstances. I offer five exhibits:

Exhibit No. 1 is Jesse Ventura, the wrestler/ actor-turned-candidate who was elected governor of Minnesota. Yes, Ventura won with only 37 percent of the vote, but that was as the nominee of the Reform Party, which had no organization and few loyal adherents. The fact that 37 percent of Minnesotans would support someone with such a bizarre background and with such limited government experience suggests that Franken’s background is not disqualifying.

Exhibit No. 2 is the late Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone (D), a rather far-left college professor with no state or national reputation who upset a relatively uncontroversial incumbent, Rudy Boschwitz (R), by running a quirky, populist campaign. Minnesota voters have moved right since the state’s days of unfettered liberalism in the 1950s and 1960s, but Wellstone’s re-election in 1996 and Democrat Mark Dayton’s Senate win four years later — to say nothing of narrow wins in the state by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 — show that liberals certainly can still win statewide.

Exhibit No. 3 is California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. When I first heard his name mentioned in 2003, I assumed it was a joke. The guy was an actor who spoke English with a heavy accent, had made an early career out of being a bodybuilder (which in most circles probably was taken to mean that he wasn’t too bright) and was a Republican in a state that was moving dramatically to the left. Yet this easily caricatured celebrity with no campaign experience and relatively little detailed knowledge of government easily won a multicandidate special election.

Exhibit No. 4 is freshman Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.). Yarmuth was the publisher of an “alternative” newspaper in Louisville, Ky., the kind that was supposed to give opponent Anne Northup (R) all of the ammunition she would need to destroy her opponent and make the election a referendum on his liberalism. That didn’t happen.

Exhibit No. 5 is Jim Talent (R), the former Missouri Senator who seemed to fit his state well and was figured to win re-election in 2006. Talent was conservative but had a moderate style, and the combination of the state’s partisan bent, his St. Louis base and the rural part of the state’s general conservatism should have carried him to victory. Instead, he couldn’t overcome the anti-Bush, anti-Republican, pro-change wave that overwhelmed many GOPers.

We could well witness the same kind of anti-Republican wave nationally next year, and if that happens, the Democratic surge could be particularly strong in Minnesota.

But can Franken show that he’s serious enough to win? Can he restrain his instincts to entertain or shock? Can he clean up his language? Can he follow direction? Can he appear likeable? Can he overcome his celebrity image to appeal to outstate Minnesota?

I don’t know the answer to these questions, and I’m not sure we’ll know the answers until much later in the cycle, when he has had time to learn his role as a candidate and find a comfortable style. Yes, Franken could fail as a candidate. But I, for one, think it’s too early to know how he will be on the stump and in live interviews a year from now.

Democrats once hoped to face Ronald Reagan for the White House in 1980. They got their wish and eventually were sorry about it. Politics, you see, is a funny, unpredictable business, which is why I’m not writing off Al Franken just yet.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on July 26, 2007. Copyright 2007 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

8 for '08: Battleground States to Watch

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Only six months into the election cycle, the universe of 2008 battleground states is already beginning to take shape. But an accurate list of the battlegrounds includes more than just the presidential race and takes into account states where hot House, Senate and even gubernatorial races also will be taking place.

For parties, political action committees, 527s, or even political junkies looking to maximize their time and effort, these eight states should host a significant percentage of the political action this cycle, listed in descending order from most active. Some states such as Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin could host fierce presidential campaigning, but the action downballot is much more limited.

Ohio: Twenty electoral votes, at least five competitive House races
Many Democrats still think “what if” when they hear the word “Ohio,” after President Bush carried it narrowly 51 percent to 49 percent on his way to defeating Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.). Four years earlier, Bush only carried the state 50 percent to 46 percent and the Buckeye State is a lock to be a presidential battleground once again.

The 2006 election results provided a mixed bag for Democrats. While taking over the governorship and knocking off Sen. Mike DeWine (R), they netted only one House seat. Currently, up to five House seats could be in play. Democrats are excited about two recruits: state Rep. Steve Driehaus, against Rep. Steve Chabot in the 1st district, and state Sen. John Boccieri against Rep. Ralph Regula in the 16th district.

In the 15th district, Franklin County Commissioners Paula Brooks and 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy will battle for the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Deborah Pryce (R). And Democrats will target Rep. Jean Schmidt in the 2nd district, but she may not even make it out of the primary.

Ohio’s 18th district, the seat of former Rep. Bob Ney (R) and now held by Rep. Zack Space (D), is a priority target for Republicans.

Pennsylvania: Twenty-one electoral votes, four House races
Although it received more attention in 2000, the Keystone State is likely to play another critical role in the presidential race. Kerry carried Pennsylvania narrowly 51 percent to 48 percent in 2004 while Al Gore carried it 51 percent to 46 percent in 2000.

Four House seats also could be in play. Republicans are particularly interested in the 10th district, formerly held by ex-Rep. Don Sherwood (R), who got into a public debate about how he treated his mistress. Republicans have a host of candidates there looking to take on freshman Rep. Chris Carney (D).

Rep. Jason Altmire (D) also is a target in the 4th district with both former Rep. Melissa Hart (R) and former Pittsburgh Steelers star and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann (R) taking a look at running. And Rep. Joe Sestak (D) is not likely to get a pass either in the 7th district. Democrats will go after Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) again in the 6th district after he was the last man standing amid a heap of Republican rubble.

Colorado: Nine electoral votes, Senate race, one House race
Democrats haven’t carried the state at the presidential level since Bill Clinton in 1992, but the state has been trending Democratic. Bush won the state by 9 points in 2000 but by only 5 points four years later. Democrats took over one of the state’s Senate seats in 2004 and have their sights set on the second seat, being vacated by GOP Sen. Wayne Allard, in 2008. Rep. Mark Udall is the likely Democratic nominee, while Republicans have former Rep. Bob Schaffer.

In 2006, Democrats also took over the governorship and the 7th district House seat, now held by Rep. Ed Perlmutter. They also control both the state House and Senate. By the numbers, the 7th district should be a swing district, but Republicans aren’t likely to make a real push in the current environment. Democrats will take another swing at Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) in the 4th district, even without star recruit Brandon Schaffer, who took a pass on the race.

Minnesota: Ten electoral votes, Senate race, two House races
Richard Nixon was the last Republican to carry the state for president in 1972, but the White House races are consistently close. Kerry carried the state 51 percent to 48 percent in 2004 and in 2000, Gore won it by a narrower 48 percent to 46 percent.

Norm Coleman (R) is one of the most vulnerable Senators in the country, and has already drawn a crowd of challengers including comedian Al Franken and attorney Mike Ciresi. Democrats may not be through recruiting yet.

Republicans are targeting freshman Rep. Tim Walz (D) in the 1st district after he knocked off then-Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) and two GOP state legislators already are running. Freshman Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) begins the first, of likely many, re-election races in the 6th district, in which she is targeted for her unabashed conservative views.

Virginia: Thirteen electoral votes, potential Senate race, two House races
This is a state that wouldn’t have been anywhere near this list four years ago, on the eve of Bush’s 9-point victory over Kerry. Democrats haven’t carried Virginia at the presidential level since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and make up only three of the state’s 11-Member Congressional delegation.

But Tim Kaine (D) won the governorship in 2005, and Jim Webb (D) defeated Sen. George Allen (R) last year in one of the closest Senate races in the country. Now, politicos on both sides of the aisle are watching to see whether Sen. John Warner (R) retires (as many insiders expect), setting up an extremely competitive open-seat race. Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) would be heavily recruited and difficult to defeat.

Rep. Tom Davis (R) would run for an open Senate seat as well, but his 10th district House seat in Northern Virginia would be difficult for Republicans to defend. Democrats also will challenge Rep. Thelma Drake (R) in the 2nd district, after her 2-point victory in 2006.

New Hampshire: Four electoral votes, Senate race, House race
Kerry carried the state by 2 points in 2004, and Bush carried it by 1 point in 2000. Sen. John Sununu (R) already has three challengers, but it’s his 2002 foe, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), who would give him the toughest test — if she runs. Last year’s GOP massacre in which Republicans lost both the state House and state Senate and both seats in Congress, makes Sununu extremely vulnerable. Former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) is challenging freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) for his old 1st district seat.

Florida: Twenty-seven electoral votes, two House races
Even though Bush won the Sunshine State by 5 points in 2004, Florida must still be considered a battleground state with its 27 electoral votes. Rep. Tim Mahoney (D) is a top Republican target in the 16th district after his 49 percent to 48 percent victory with ex-Rep. Mark Foley’s name still on the ballot. Democrats are making an effort in the 8th district against Rep. Ric Keller (R).

Oregon: Seven electoral votes, Senate race
Ronald Reagan was the last Republican presidential contender to carry Oregon, but the state has been surprisingly closer the past two cycles. In 2000, Gore won it narrowly while Kerry won it by 4 points in 2004.

Democrats are still looking for a top-tier candidate against Sen. Gordon Smith (R), after a series of rejections from the Congressional delegation and a former governor, but the Republican incumbent is far from a safe bet for re-election. If Democrats nominate Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) for president, Rep. Darlene Hooley (D) could be vulnerable, but she has proved to be a very tough campaigner.


This story first appeared in Roll Call on June 28, 2007. Copyright 2007 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Say What? Minnesota Senate

[A new, semi-regular feature on RothenbergPoliticalReport.com]

By Stuart Rothenberg

Okay, I know that I shouldn't do this, but I'm going to do it anyway. We're starting a semi-regular feature in which we identify really, really silly comments that we read or hear. I know that I'm not single-handedly going to cause people to stop saying dumb stuff, but I'm at a stage in my life and my career when I feel free to say what I really think. I do want to emphasize that the people who say these things aren't necessarily unintelligent, illogical or inane. Sometimes smart people say dumb things too. (Yes, I'm sure some of my past musings fit this category, though I hope not too many.)

From a January 23, 2007 Roll Call article reporting that Senator Norm Coleman has hired a campaign manager for his 2008 reelection bid:

"I think it's clearly a sign that he thinks he's in trouble," said Brian Melendez, chairman of the Minnesota Democratic Party. "I don't know any other Senate campaign organization that is in place with a campaign manager at this point in the campaign," Melendez continued. "I guess Coleman saw what happened to all the other Bush cronies in '06 and is desperate and terrified."

My reaction? Given Minnesota's political bent, the state's election results in 2006 and likely Democratic efforts to oust Coleman, the Republican Senator would have to be kidding himself not to think that he's in trouble. Obviously he's a top Democratic target, and obviously he'll have a tough race if Democrats in the state get their act together. In fact, if Coleman didn't think he was facing a difficult reelection, I'd think that he was delusional, and I'd see that as a bad omen for his political future.

So if Coleman understands that he's in trouble, he's being smart and sensible. Melendez's comment that Coleman's step of hiring a manager is "desperate and terrified" ranks as absurd. The senator is just doing what anyone with a brain would be doing, preparing for a battle.

"Desperate" almost two years out from Election Day? "Terrified" because Coleman brought on board a staffer? In fact, it is Melendez's comment that is ridiculous and over the top. I understand that he wants to take a shot at Coleman, and that's obviously fine. But his comments are silly, and someone should say so.

I just did.