2006 House Ratings

2006 Rothenberg Political Report
House Ratings

Races are listed by likelihood of a party switch. For race-by-race analysis and explanation of the rankings, you must be a subscriber to the print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report. For a subscription form, click here. Ratings updated October 6, 2006. Republicans currently hold a 232-203 majority in the House. Democrats need to net 15 seats for a majority (218 seats). We are currently predicting a Democratic gain of 15-20 seats.

PURE TOSS-UP (11 R, 0 D)

CT 2 (Simmons, R)
FL 22 (Shaw, R)
KY 4 (Davis, R)
NM 1 (Wilson, R)
NC 11 (Taylor, R)
OH 1 (Chabot, R)
OH 15 (Pryce, R)
OH 18 (Open; Ney, R)
PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
PA 7 (Weldon, R)
VA 2 (Drake, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (10 R, 0 D)

CT 4 (Shays, R)
CT 5 (Johnson, R)
FL 13 (Open; Harris, R)
IL 6 (Open; Hyde, R)
MN 6 (Open; Kennedy, R)
NV 3 (Porter, R)
NY 24 (Open; Boehlert, R)
NY 26 (Reynolds, R)
PA 8 (Fitzpatrick, R)
WI 8 (Open; Green, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (5 R, 0 D)

FL 16 (Open; Foley, R)
IN 9 (Sodrel, R)
IA 1 (Open; Nussle, R)
PA 10 (Sherwood, R)
TX 22 (Open; DeLay, R)

LEAN REPUBLICAN (7 R, 0 D)

AZ 5 (Hayworth, R)
CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
KY 3 (Northup, R)
NY 20 (Sweeney, R)
NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
WA 8 (Reichert, R)
TX 23 (Bonilla, R)

LEAN DEMOCRATIC (3 R, 4 D)

CO 7 (Open; Beauprez, R)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
GA 12 (Barrow, D)
IL 8 (Bean, D)
IN 2 (Chocola, R)
IN 8 (Hostettler, R)
IA 3 (Boswell, D)

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (13 R, 0 D)

AZ 1 (Renzi, R)
CA 4 (Doolittle, R)
CA 11 (Pombo, R)
FL 9 (Open; Bilirakis, R)
IL 10 (Kirk, R)
NV 2 (Open; Gibbons, R)
NH 2 (Bass, R)
NJ 7 (Ferguson, R)
NY 3 (King, R)
NY 19 (Kelly, R)
NY 25 (Walsh, R)
OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
WY AL (Cubin, R)

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (1 R, 4 D)

AZ 8 (Open; Kolbe, R)
SC 5 (Spratt, D)
TX 17 (Edwards, D)
VT A-L (Open; Sanders, D)
WV 1 (Mollohan, D)