New Print Edition: New Mexico 1 & Ohio 18
The new May 21, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.
Here's a brief sample of what's in this edition...
New Mexico 1: Survivor
By Nathan L. Gonzales
Just when Heather Wilson thought she could take a breath, the road to a sixth full term just got tougher.
On one level the Republican congresswoman is a survivor. She won reelection in a Democratic-leaning district in an extremely Democratic year. But her subsequent involvement in the U.S. attorney's controversy this year has renewed Democratic interest in her Albuquerque seat and put her narrow 861 vote margin into serious jeopardy.
Even though some Democrats complain in retrospect about their 2006 nominee, state Attorney General Patricia Madrid, she was once showcased as one of their star recruits and Wilson's toughest challenger, and the Republican still turned her away. Now, Democrats are sorting through a list of potential candidates without a clear frontrunner for the nomination.
Just because Wilson survived the Democratic wave doesn't mean the storm is over. Missouri Cong. Harold Volkmer (D) survived the Republican wave of 1994, only to lose reelection two years later.
For the full five-page story, you must subscribe.
Ohio 18: Looking for a Do-Over
Republicans lost 30 seats last November, and some of them are gone for a very long time. But in that number are a handful of Republican-leaning seats that fell into Democratic hands after a cornucopia of scandals. Ohio's 18th District is one of those seats.
To say that Zack Space had a wind at his back in 2006 would be severely understating the situation. Not only did the Democrat have an unpopular President Bush looming over the election, but also out-going scandal ridden Gov. Bob Taft (R) and Cong. Bob Ney (R) who resigned the seat only days before the election after he pleaded guilty to corruption charges. Even better still, the replacement Republican candidate was easily tied to all of the above.
With Ney and Taft in the rearview mirror, Republicans are optimistic about defeating Cong. Space, who will now enjoy the power of incumbency in a sprawling district. Buckeye State Republicans are still licking their wounds after last year, and initial interest in the race has been surprisingly sparse. But this race is near the top of initial GOP opportunities.
As with many districts in the country, the current fight is whether the 2006 election was an aberration or if President Bush (and Taft in this case) has produced a general swing of the district and the state toward the Democrats.
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