Friday, August 10, 2007

New Print Edition: Ohio 15 & New Hampshire 1

The August 10, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check. Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...

Ohio 15: Buckeye Bull’s-Eye
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Deborah Pryce wasn’t supposed to be a member of the 110th Congress. In 2006, the Republican congresswoman found herself running for reelection in the face of an unpopular President, a scandal-ridden GOP governor, and a leadership post in the House that gave Democrats an easy avenue to tie her to disgraced Cong. Mark Foley (R-FL).

With just a few weeks to go, Pryce was down double digits in the polls and standing on the back of a flatbed truck challenging her opponent to debate.

But she pulled it out.

Now, Pryce is headed for a rematch with Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) in Ohio’s 15th District. Once again, the Columbus area will be an epicenter for political activity as the presidential nominees battle for the Buckeye State’s 20 electoral votes.

Pryce’s supporters are under no illusions that 2008 will be a rosy environment to run another reelection race, but with Bob Taft (R) out of office and President Bush about to follow, they don’t figure it will be any worse than 2006.

Subscribers get the entire story...

New Hampshire 1: Surprise, Surprise

Virtually nobody expected Carol Shea-Porter to prevail on Election Night. And most observers didn’t even expect her to win the primary. But when the votes were counted, the Democrat had defeated Cong. Jeb Bradley (R) and pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the night.

Public polling just a couple days before the Election showed Shea-Porter no closer than five points, and down by as many as 14 points.

But the Democratic wave was particularly strong in New Hampshire last November, sweeping out both Republican members of Congress, and giving the Democrats control of both chambers of the state legislature.
Republicans in the Granite State are still recovering from the 2006 losses, President Bush’s numbers are as low as anywhere in the country, and Sen. John Sununu (R) looks like the most vulnerable incumbent in the country right now.

Confident in victory and her grassroots campaign, Shea-Porter has opted out of the DCCC’s Frontline incumbent protection program.

But Shea-Porter could be in for a rude awakening if she thinks another grassroots campaign will be enough to hold the seat. The Presidential year, plus the political target on her back, makes that unlikely.

Subscribers get the entire story, as well as Report Shorts on Louisiana Senate, Oregon Senate, California 11, Colorado 2, Illinois 18, Michigan 9, and New York 29.