New Print Edition: 2008 House Overview

The October 5, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check. Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...

House Outlook For 2008

With only a little more than a year to go until the general election, there is still considerable uncertainty about which party will gain House seats and how big that gain might be.

Republicans have a handful of strong prospects, primarily in districts that they should not have lost in the first place. A normal partisan rebound could easily return districts in Texas, Florida, Kansas, Pennsylvania and California back to the GOP. In addition, the party has some strong candidates in competitive districts currently held by Democrats.

But the national environment could well be as hostile to Republicans next year as it was in 2006, and the combination of GOP retirements, repeat Democratic challengers and some strong Democratic recruits in new districts gives Democrats an opportunity to add seats.

In the past, the NRCC has been able to rely on a strong financial advantage over the DCCC, something it can no longer count on. The Democrats’ financial edge gives them much greater flexibility, and an opportunity to make decisions about late-breaking races.

The Presidential race could impact the two parties’ House prospects, as well. The most likely scenario is that it would strengthen GOP prospects in reliably Republican districts while creating Democratic opportunities in swing districts, particularly outside the South.

While it is still too early to predict specific outcomes, it’s clear that Democrats will retain the control of the House in next year’s elections. Put another way, the Democrats’ upside potential is much greater than the GOP’s, and Republicans may well have to concentrate, once again, on damage control and on minimizing their losses.

For the rest of the Report, including a state-by-state rundown of the competitive races, you must subscribe to the print edition.