Friday, November 02, 2007

New Print Edition: 2008 Senate Outlook

The November 2, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check. Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...

Senate Overview – The Lay of the Land

By Stuart Rothenberg

GOP retirements over the past three months have added considerably to Republican woes. Now, party insiders are hoping that another retirement doesn’t add to the party’s problems.

At least seven Republican seats are at considerable risk a year out from the 2008 elections – three opens and four held by incumbents in states carried by John Kerry (D) in 2004. Seven is a huge number this early in the cycle. Only one Democratic seat is at considerable risk – Mary Landrieu’s in Louisiana.

Democrats can play offense almost entirely, and they have the advantage on message and money. But Republicans hope that voter frustration with both parties and the end of the Bush administration will allow their endangered incumbents to localize their races and win reelection.

At this point, a net Democratic gain looks extremely likely. But for Congress-watchers, it makes a huge difference if Democrats gain a seat or two – or six or seven. Right now, 3-5 seems like the most likely guess, with Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado and Louisiana currently the most likely seats to turn.

For state-by-state analysis and recent polling information for each race, you must subscribe to the print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report.