New Print Edition: 2008 House Overview

The July 25, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...

House Outlook For 2008

With second quarter fundraising numbers now available and the general election fast approaching, we have taken a fresh look at the national political environment, as well as individual House races.

The result has been some significant shifting of races. What has not changed is our general view of the election cycle. Democrats continue to have major advantages, including their party’s reputation, greater enthusiasm and money.

The GOP brand is not an asset this year for Republicans except in the most Republican districts, and many GOP challengers and open seat hopefuls are echoing Sen. Barack Obama’s call for change.

Democrats have the advantage on almost all issues, though Republican strategists believe that they have found a good issue down the stretch: drilling for more oil and gas.

The DCCC’s huge financial advantage over the GOP should help Democrats put more seats into play and make considerable gains in November.

Republican insiders acknowledge that the national party won’t be able to help embattled GOP candidates until well after Labor Day, meaning that those Republican incumbents, challengers and open seat hopefuls will be on their own (or depend on outside groups), while the DCCC pounds them with media.

Democrats will gain House seats again this year. The only question is how many. In our last quarterly report on the House, we put likely Democratic gains in the 8-12 seat range. We are increasing that target to 10-15 seats, though we believe that a somewhat bigger Democratic gain (even 20 seats) would not be all that surprising.

For the state-by-state, race-by-race analysis, you must subscribe to the print edition of the Report.