Tuesday, March 24, 2009

New Print Edition: California 32 & Florida 8

The March 20, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of this edition:

California 32: Race Matters?

By Nathan L. Gonzales

When President Barack Obama plucked Cong. Hilda Solis (D) from the House for his cabinet, he left Democrats with an open seat to defend. But unlike the special election in upstate New York, Democrats are in no danger of losing this Southern California seat.

State Sen. Gil Cedillo (D) and Board of Equalization Chairman Judy Chu (D) are battling to replace Solis in the 32nd Congressional District, even if other candidates join the race before the filing deadline.

Chu represented a large chunk of the district in the state Assembly and now on the Equalization Board. But in a district where ethnicity still matters, she’s Asian-American in a majority Hispanic district. That’s a big reason why Cedillo has a significant opportunity in the race, even though he doesn’t live in or represent any of the district.

After Solis officially resigned on February 24, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) set a May 19 all-party primary. If no candidate gets over 50%, then the top Republican and Democratic vote-getters will face off on July 14. But the Democratic nominee will be the prohibitive favorite. Subscribers get the entire story in the print edition of the Report.

Florida 8: Magical World of Politics
By Nathan L. Gonzales

It was bad enough last fall for Republicans to lose another 21 House seats, but they even lost Disney World. Now, GOPers are hoping out-spoken freshman Cong. Alan Grayson (D) will help make their dreams of taking back Florida’s 8th District come true by saying something outlandish.

Grayson couldn’t get out of the primary in 2006, but spent millions of his own money last cycle to secure the nomination and knock off four-term Cong. Ric Keller (R). Some GOP strategists saw the writing on the wall after a flawed challenger received 47% against Keller in the GOP primary. The Democratic attorney used his personal resources to exploit Keller’s weaknesses and rode the Barack Obama wave into office.

Republicans don’t yet have an announced, credible candidate for 2010, but will look to former state House Speaker Dan Webster or Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty. There is little doubt they’ll compete in the Orlando-area district that is proving to be very competitive at multiple levels.

Much of the attention on Florida last cycle was on the presidential race or Cong. Tom Feeney’s (R) ethical troubles in the neighboring 24th district, and not Keller’s race. This time around, it’s the 8th District that could be one of the most talked about House races this cycle. Subscribers get the entire story in the print edition of the Report.