Tuesday, September 22, 2009

New Print Edition: 2010 House Overview

The September 18, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of the introduction to this edition:

House Outlook For 2010

The national political landscape has changed noticeably over the past few months, with Republicans the beneficiaries.

The President’s standing has weakened, Democrats are on the defensive on the economy, spending and health care, and key midterm voting groups – including seniors and Independents – are moving away from the Democrats and toward the GOP.

Tracking with those changes is an uptick in Republican fundraising and a surge in Republican recruiting and optimism. Democratic strategists understand that the dynamics of 2009-2010 are – and will be – very different from the previous two cycles, and they are taking steps to minimize the damage.

The cycle is starting to look more and more like a typical midterm election, with the majority party (in this case the Democrats) trying to localize elections by beating up their Republican opponents, and the out-party (in this case the GOP) trying to ride a wave of change and dissatisfaction – and seeking to have voters “send a message” to President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

We’ve moved a number of races, but it’s still early, and we expect many more races to develop that are not now on our chart. Eventually, this should put more Democratic seats at risk.

Democratic control of the House is not now at risk, and Republicans could gain anywhere from only a handful of seats to a couple of dozen or more, depending on how things develop over the next year. Two things seem clear: the NRCC’s 2006 and 2008 long nightmare is over, and Democrats must localize races to limit their losses in 2010.

Subscribers get a district-by-district breakdown of the most competitive races in the print edition of the Report.