New House Ratings: 44 Seats Moved Toward GOP
We are still seven months until the midterm elections, so there is at least some possibility that the landscape could shift or that Democratic attacks on the GOP could keep Republican gains down to a minimum.
Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.
We've moved 44 seats toward the Republicans and only 4 toward the Democrats.
Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans
Special Elections in italics
Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 13 D)
- AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
- FL 24 (Kosmas, D) *
- IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
- IL 14 (Foster, D) *
- MI 1 (Open; Stupak, D)
- MI 7 (Schauer, D)
- NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
- NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
- NY 24 (Arcuri, D) *
- NV 3 (Titus, D) *
- PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
- PA 12 (Open; Murtha, D) *
- TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
- WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)
Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 9 D)
- AL 2 (Bright, D)
- AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D) *
- FL 8 (Grayson, D)
- ID 1 (Minnick, D)
- IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D) *
- KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
- MS 1 (Childers, D)
- VA 2 (Nye, D) *
- VA 5 (Perriello, D)
Lean Republican (3 R, 7 D)
- CA 3 (Lungren, R)
- CO 4 (Markey, D) *
- FL 25 (Open; M. Diaz-Balart, R) #
- LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
- MD 1 (Kratovil, D) *
- NM 2 (Teague, D) *
- NY 29 (Open; Massa, D) *
- OH 1 (Driehaus, D) *
- OH 15 (Kilroy, D) *
- WA 8 (Reichert, R)
Republican Favored (5 R, 1 D)
- CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
- NE 2 (Terry, R)
- OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
- PA 6 (Gerlach, R) *
- PA 15 (Dent, R)
- TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D) *
Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 4 D)
- HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) *
- ND A-L (Pomeroy, D) *
- SC 5 (Spratt, D) *
- WV 1 (Mollohan, D) *
Lean Democratic (1 R, 15 D)
- AZ 5 (Mitchell, D) *
- AZ 8 (Giffords, D) *
- DE -AL (Open; Castle, R) *
- IN 9 (Hill, D)
- IA 3 (Boswell, D) *
- MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D) *
- MO 4 (Skelton, D)
- NJ 3 (Adler, D) *
- NY 1 (Bishop, D)
- NY 19 (Hall, D)
- OH 16 (Boccieri, D) *
- OH 18 (Space, D) *
- PA 4 (Altmire, D) *
- PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) *
- VA 9 (Boucher, D) *
- WI 7 (Obey, D) *
Democrat Favored (1 R, 19 D)
- CA 11 (McNerney, D)
- CO 3 (Salazar, D)
- CT 5 (Murphy, D)
- FL 22 (Klein, D) *
- IL 11 (Halvorson, D) *
- IN 2 (Donnelly, D) *
- LA 2 (Cao, R)
- NM 1 (Heinrich, D) *
- NY 13 (McMahon, D)
- NY 20 (Murphy, D)
- NY 23 (Owens, D) #
- NC 8 (Kissell, D)
- OH 13 (Sutton, D) *
- PA 3 (Dahlkemper, D) *
- PA 8 (Murphy, D) *
- PA 10 (Carney, D) *
- PA 17 (Holden, D)
- SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)
- TX 17 (Edwards, D)
- WI 8 (Kagen, D)
Republican seats: 11
Democratic seats: 68
Dropped from the list:
MN 3 (Paulsen, R) *, MN 6 (Bachmann, R) *, OH 2 (Schmidt, R) *, CA 44 (Calvert, R) *, CA 47 (Sanchez, D) #, GA 8 (Marshall, D) #
