New 2010 House Ratings
In our latest (June 18) issue of the Rothenberg Political Report, we moved two races: the Democratic open seat in Arkansas 2 from Toss-Up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican and South Dakota Cong. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) from Democrat Favored to Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat.
We're also moving Cong. Chet Edwards (D-TX 17) from Democrat Favored to Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat. Voters know and like Edwards, but they are not, at least at this point, prepared to vote for him again.
Our next full House overview in the middle of next month, so stay tuned for even more changes.
Overall, substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.
Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans
Special Elections in italics
- AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
- FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
- IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
- IL 14 (Foster, D)
- MI 1 (Open; Stupak, D)
- MI 7 (Schauer, D)
- NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
- NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
- NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
- NV 3 (Titus, D)
- PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
- TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
- WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)
- AL 2 (Bright, D)
- FL 8 (Grayson, D)
- IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D)
- KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
- MS 1 (Childers, D)
- VA 2 (Nye, D)
- VA 5 (Perriello, D)
- AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D) *
- CA 3 (Lungren, R)
- CO 4 (Markey, D)
- FL 25 (Open; M. Diaz-Balart, R)
- LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
- MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
- NM 2 (Teague, D)
- NY 29 (Open; Massa, D)
- OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
- OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
- WA 8 (Reichert, R)
- CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
- NE 2 (Terry, R)
- OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
- PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
- PA 15 (Dent, R)
- TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D)
- HI 1 (Djou, R)
- ND A-L (Pomeroy, D)
- SC 5 (Spratt, D)
- SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)*
- TX 17 (Edwards, D) *
- WV 1 (Open; Mollohan, D)
- AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
- AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
- DE -AL (Open; Castle, R)
- ID 1 (Minnick, D)
- IN 9 (Hill, D)
- IA 3 (Boswell, D)
- MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D)
- MO 4 (Skelton, D)
- NJ 3 (Adler, D)
- NM 1 (Heinrich, D)
- NY 1 (Bishop, D)
- NY 19 (Hall, D)
- OH 16 (Boccieri, D)
- OH 18 (Space, D)
- PA 4 (Altmire, D)
- PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)
- PA 12 (Critz, D)
- VA 9 (Boucher, D)
- WI 7 (Open; Obey, D)
- CA 11 (McNerney, D)
- CO 3 (Salazar, D)
- CT 5 (Murphy, D)
- FL 22 (Klein, D)
- IL 11 (Halvorson, D)
- IN 2 (Donnelly, D)
- LA 2 (Cao, R)
- NY 13 (McMahon, D)
- NY 20 (Murphy, D)
- NY 23 (Owens, D)
- NC 8 (Kissell, D)
- OH 13 (Sutton, D)
- PA 3 (Dahlkemper, D)
- PA 8 (Murphy, D)
- PA 10 (Carney, D)
- PA 17 (Holden, D)
- WI 8 (Kagen, D)
Republican seats: 12
Democratic seats: 67
