DGA-Led Group Targets Kasich with New TV Ad

By Nathan L. Gonzales

There’s still five months to go before Election Day but you wouldn’t know it by the air war taking place in Ohio’s race for governor.

Building a Stronger Ohio, an outside Democratic group led by the Democratic Governors Association, is set to air a television ad this week attacking former Cong. John Kasich, the Republican challenging incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D).

The DGA contributed $1.5 million to Building a Stronger Ohio while the American Federation of Teachers added another $200,000, according to reports on the Ohio secretary of state’s website. The initial buy was for $300,000, but that is likely to be only the beginning of a larger effort.

The ad has not been released yet but it is likely to trumpet similar themes to Gov. Strickland’s ad that began airing earlier this month. [Update- You can view the new ad here.]

Strickland’s ad, “Good Work,” attacked Kasich for supporting NAFTA and then working for Lehman Brothers after he left Congress. “Does Ohio really need a congressman from Wall Street for governor?” according to the tagline of the ad.



The Republican Governors Association responded with a television ad, “Worried,” that tries to paint the governor’s ads as desperate while faulting him for job losses in the state during his first term. “Strickland had to attack because he sure didn’t get the jobs done,” according to the ad.

New Players Enter Redistricting Fight

By Nathan L. Gonzales

While Republicans and Democrats battle for the upper hand in selling the recently enacted health care bill, party operatives on both sides of the aisle are solidifying their strategies behind the scenes for the upcoming redistricting fight that will have an impact on Congressional politics for the next decade.

Democrats are making a change at the top of one if their key groups, the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, since Executive Director Brian Smoot is leaving his post to run the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure effort.

“I will be working with the trustees to identify a new director to ensure a smooth and seamless transition,” Smoot said. A decision on his replacement is expected to be made very soon.

The next round of reapportionment and redistricting will be the first since the passage of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, which eliminated soft money and therefore is expected to severely limit Members’ involvement in the process.

The parties are forced to use hard dollars or rely on outside groups without Member involvement. But the trust recently asked the Federal Election Commission for an advisory opinion to clarify Members’ roles in certain redistricting activities.

“The Trust seeks to confirm that Members of Congress may solicit funds for the Trust outside the limits and source restrictions prescribed by the Federal Election Campaign Act,” according to the February 19 letter signed by Marc Elias of Perkins Coie on behalf of the trust. “[S]uch solicitations are not intended to influence any federal or non-federal election and will not advocate the election or defeat of any candidate for office.”

“An advisory opinion is a shield, not a sword,” Elias explained in an interview about potential FEC complaints filed by opponents in the future.

Even though redistricting is an inherently political task, Democrats want the FEC to continue to differentiate between legal activity and electioneering.

Republicans are anxiously awaiting the opinion as well. “Everyone wants to see what [the FEC] says,” explained one GOP operative.

“I’m very interested,” laughed prominent GOP attorney Mark Braden, who is working with Making America’s Promise Secure. Depending on how the FEC crafts its response to the trust, it could allow MAPS, a 501(c)(4) that is coordinating the legal and data aspects of redistricting for Republicans, to raise money with Members’ help as well.

A favorable or neutral opinion from the FEC wouldn’t change the strategy for the trust or MAPS, but it could ease the fundraising lift. The FEC has 60 days from when it received the letter, in mid-February, to respond.

Overall, the trust is just one part of the Democrats’ three-legged redistricting stool. The trust handles the legal component while Foundation for the Future, a 527, handles the data and analytical component in preparation for drawing the maps. But the political and electoral element is critical, too.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and its executive director, Michael Sargeant, recently announced a $20 million effort to capture state legislative chambers in order to control the redistricting process.

“The bottom line: The results of the 2010 state legislative elections will define how key reforms and policies are decided for the next decade,” Sargeant said in a March 15 memo.

The Democratic Governors Association is also part of the electoral component since governors in most states have a role in signing off on or vetoing maps. The DGA recently hired veteran Democratic operative Harold Ickes as fundraiser in chief to highlight the importance of gubernatorial races in the redistricting process.

As Democrats ramp up, Republicans are finally catching up with the formation of a new group that features some high-powered GOP players. Last month, the Republican State Leadership Committee, led by former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie, launched its REDistricting MAjority Project.

“We want to make sure Republican legislators have pens in their hands,” former National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds (N.Y.) told Roll Call. Reynolds and others are quick to point out that the redistricting process starts with controlling as many legislative chambers as possible.

The former Congressman is vice chairman of the RSLC and heading up REDMAP, which is organized as a 527 and has a budget of $20 million for nonfederal races this November. Even if the FEC allows Members to raise money for the trust, current Members still could not get involved with a 527 such as REDMAP or Foundation for the Future.

REDMAP’s formation relieves some tension on the Republican side. Traditionally, the RNC has coordinated the GOP’s redistricting effort, relying heavily on soft money. Now post-BCRA, the party was forced to completely restructure its redistricting effort. The RNC will play more of an advisory and educational role this time around.

In contrast, Democrats have relied on outside groups in the past, such as labor unions for fundraising and coordination, making it easier for them to adapt to the new rules this time around.

The Republicans finally seem to be streamlining their operation. REDMAP has essentially joined forces with the American Majority Project, which was created in December and led by former Tennessee Sen. Bill Brock, former North Carolina Rep. Robin Hayes and former RNC Chairman Mike Duncan.

While REDMAP and the Republican Governors Association focus on the 2010 elections and winning seats at the redistricting table, MAPS will handle the data and technical element of redistricting as well as coordinate for the party’s legal strategy for the inevitable legal battles after the maps are drawn.

This story first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on March 29, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Recruiting Battles Set To Kick Off

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Each election cycle, the competing interests of the various campaign committees collide when it comes to candidate recruitment efforts, as a victory for one arm sometimes leaves an open-seat headache for another.

There are already a handful of House Members being mentioned as possible candidates for Senate and governor in 2010 whose departures would leave big holes for their respective parties to fill.

In Illinois, Republicans want Rep. Mark Kirk to run for the seat now held by appointed Sen. Roland Burris (D). He might be Republicans’ best chance for capturing the seat, but holding his House seat is another story.

Even though Kirk scored an impressive re-election win last fall, the National Republican Congressional Committee would have great difficulty retaining the 10th district seat without the incumbent. Barack Obama won 61 percent in the district, according to analysis compiled by the community at Swing State Project, a Democratic blog.

Senate Republicans would also like Rep. Mike Castle (Del.) to run for Joseph Biden’s former seat and for Rep. Peter King (N.Y.) to run for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D) seat if she is confirmed as secretary of State. That would put two more traditionally Democratic Senate seats in play for the GOP but would result in more NRCC migraines.

But as a Senate GOP strategist explained, parochial interests often trump partisan ones when it comes to recruiting, especially with Democrats almost at the 60-seat filibuster-proof threshold.

“One to two seats make a difference in the Senate,” the strategist said. “The House has a ways to go to regain the majority.”

At this point, more House Republicans appear to be looking at gubernatorial races, and by and large the seats they leave behind won’t be as difficult to hold.

Rep. Zach Wamp (R) has already announced his bid for governor in Tennessee, but he leaves behind a heavily Republican district. Similarly, the NRCC shouldn’t have to worry about the seats held by GOP Reps. Gresham Barrett (S.C.), Jo Bonner (Ala.), Mary Fallin (Okla.) and Pete Hoekstra (Mich.) if they all run for governor. Hoekstra has already announced he will not seek re-election.

The one problem spot could be in Pennsylvania, where Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) has said he is thinking about running for governor in 2010. His suburban Philadelphia seat would be a prime Democratic pickup opportunity.

GOP Reps. Mike Rogers (Mich.) and Greg Walden (Ore.) have also both been mentioned as possible gubernatorial candidates, and Democrats would certainly make a play for their seats if they were to vacate them. But both men were just given new leadership roles at the NRCC, so their departures seem unlikely.

One House GOP operative said that the desire of Members to advance politically is par for the course and that committees learn to expect, and deal with, the open seats.

“Both Democrats and Republicans will face their share of House Members seeking higher office,” the strategist said.

Ultimately, a party’s ability to hold on to a difficult seat depends on several factors, including the overall political climate and the bench of aspiring candidates waiting to run.

In Texas, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) appears to be running for governor in 2010 and party strategists want her to remain in the Senate while she runs — her seat is not up for re-election until 2012 — instead of resigning early and forcing a special election. Houston Mayor Bill White (D) has said he will run if there is a special election in 2010, and GOP strategists worry that he might have a shot at winning, depending on when the special election is scheduled.

Over the past three cycles, Democrats have held 15 of 16 House seats vacated by Members running for higher office, and one of two Senate seats. Republicans have had more trouble recently, holding 14 of 21 open House seats where a Member left to run for something else.

Last cycle, House Democrats were able to limit the number of retirements, in part because only 11 states elected governors and only three of those races were open seats. In 2010, 36 states will elect a governor, including at least 15 open seats, allowing for a lot more upward movement.

Among Democrats, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.) is widely believed to be interested in her state’s open governorship next year. She’s probably the only Democrat who could win the top executive job, but she’s also probably the only Democrat who could hold her at-large seat in the House.

“Committees know and respect that candidate recruitment is paramount for all of us,” Democratic Governors Association Executive Director Nathan Daschle said. “Sometimes this puts the committees at odds with one another, but everyone understands that we are all working toward the same goal — supporting Democratic leadership at all levels of government.”

South Dakota is one example of a seat the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee would have difficulty defending. President George W. Bush won there by 22 points in 2004 and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won by 8 points in November.

The DCCC would also have a tough time holding Tennessee’s 4th district if Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) runs for governor. Bush won the district by 17 points in 2004 and McCain carried it by 10. (Correction- McCain won it by 30 points!)

“If a Member thinks this is their moment, it would be difficult to dissuade them,” one House Democratic strategist said.

Alabama Rep. Artur Davis (D) is also exploring a gubernatorial bid, but he would leave behind a very Democratic district. Democratic candidates would also start with the advantage if Reps. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) and Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) run for governor.

Other potential House vacancies would be more problematic for the DCCC.

New York Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) has met with Gov. David Paterson (D) about being named to Clinton’s Senate seat. She beat a scandal-tainted GOP incumbent in 2006, but her easy 2008 re-election belies the Republican lean of the district.

Similarly, Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio) is mentioned as a potential candidate for Senate and an open 18th district seat would be a GOP opportunity.

North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler (D) is creating a buzz as a potential Senate candidate as well, particularly since former President Bill Clinton is scheduled to be in Raleigh next week for a fundraiser on Shuler’s behalf. He could probably have his 11th district seat as long as he wants it, but if he leaves, Republicans would target the seat McCain carried by 5 points and Bush by 14 points in 2004.

In Florida, Democratic Reps. Allen Boyd and Ron Klein are eyeing running for Senate, although Boyd’s district would be harder to hold than Klein’s would be.

And some Democrats want Rep. Ben Chandler (D) to challenge Sen. Jim Bunning (R) in Kentucky. Chandler was first elected to Congress in a February 2004 special election, succeeding Rep. Ernie Fletcher (R), who had been elected governor.

The Kentucky seat was the only one House Republicans lost in the 2004 cycle because of a Member leaving to run for higher office. The GOP held all seven seats vacated by Members running for Senate and even picked up one Democratic-held open seat vacated because of a Senate run.

Two years later, in 2006, Republicans lost swing districts in Colorado, Wisconsin and Iowa when Members ran for governor, but they held on to six other open seats that were more Republican in nature.

Democrats held onto all of their open seats that year, on their way to winning the House and Senate majorities.

Last cycle, Republicans lost a seat in Mississippi and two in New Mexico when Members left to run for the Senate. They only managed to keep now-Gov. Bobby Jindal’s (R) seat in Louisiana. Democrats had to defend and hold only very Democratic districts in Maine, Colorado and New Mexico.

“Fortunately, we are living in an era when the Democratic message is resonating all across the country,” Daschle said. “With so many qualified candidates out there, I am certain that we’ll all meet our recruiting goals.”

This story first appeared in Roll Call on January 20, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Young Operatives Guide Governors Associations

By Nathan L. Gonzales

The fate of governors nationwide currently is in the hands of two very young operatives.

Democratic Governors Association Executive Director Nathan Daschle, 33, and Republican Governors Association Executive Director Nick Ayers, 25, lead multimillion-dollar campaign committees that could impact Congressional redistricting and even produce a future president of the United States.

Ayers is from Atlanta and attended Kennesaw State University, 20 miles north of the city. But before he finished school, at age 19, he signed on to help Republican Sonny Perdue in his long-shot bid to defeat incumbent Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes (D). After Perdue’s 51 percent to 46 percent upset victory, Ayers continued to work as a political adviser to the governor.

In 2004, Ayers guided Karen Handel’s (R) successful run for the Fulton County Board of Commissioners. (She is now Georgia’s secretary of state after her 2006 victory.) After Handel’s initial victory, Ayers focused on Perdue’s 2006 re-election race, which he won convincingly, 58 percent to 38 percent.

When Perdue was subsequently elected chairman of the RGA, the Georgia Republican appointed Ayers to manage the committee.

While Ayers is a political animal, Daschle’s profile is much different, despite his political pedigree.

Daschle was raised in Washington, D.C., and is the son of the former Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle (S.D.). Nathan Daschle graduated from Northwestern University in 1995 and went to work on Tom Strickland’s (D) unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaign in Colorado. Ironically, GOP operative Dick Wadhams managed the campaign of then-Rep. Wayne Allard (R), who defeated Strickland, and of John Thune (R), who defeated Sen. Daschle in 2004.

“Dick Wadhams has been terrorizing my family for many years,” Daschle joked.

After Colorado, Nathan worked for the Natural Resources Defense Council as a legislative associate and for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees as a legislative representative. He went on to Harvard Law School, graduating in 2002, and then to work as an attorney at Covington & Burling.

In 2005, Daschle became director of policy and counsel at the DGA, where he served until becoming executive director earlier this year.


This story first appeared in Roll Call on September 6, 2007. Copyright 2007 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Governors Associations Retooling for the Long Haul

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Two Washington, D.C.-based campaign committees are changing their strategies — moves that could benefit Members on Capitol Hill and undoubtedly will affect redistricting after the 2010 Census.

The Democratic Governors Association and Republican Governors Association don’t get a lot of attention in this city because their targets are primarily outside the Beltway, but both are adopting long-term strategies and positioning themselves to assist ambitious politicians looking to climb the political ladder.

“We have to operate on a four-year cycle,” said DGA Executive Director Nathan Daschle, the son of former Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle (S.D.), noting the wide inequity of governorships up each year. For the first three years of the “cycle” (2007-2009) there are only 16 races, compared with 36 races in the fourth year (2010). And of those 36 races, at least 19 will be open seats.

Unlike the parties’ House and Senate campaign committees, which elect chairmen for two-year terms, the RGA and DGA have generally operated on a year-to-year basis, with annual chairmen and rotating staff.

Even though the DGA’s four-year strategy, called Project 2010, is the first organized effort of its kind for the committee, Republicans give Democrats credit for initiating the long-term concept during the 2005-2006 races. Project 2010 is likely to be formally launched later this year.

Republicans are developing a long-term strategy of their own, pushing for continuity at the RGA.

In January, Republican governors changed the RGA bylaws to allow a governor to serve more than a one-year term as chairman. Proponents of the change hope that removing the honorary status will create some healthy competition for the post, motivate the chairmen to invest in the committee and not allow other governors to ignore the committee for the three years they aren’t up for re-election. Previously, many governors didn’t think much about the Washington-based RGA when they weren’t running for the office.

The current RGA chairman, Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue, chose not to be the first to seek a second term to avoid it looking like he changed the rules for his own benefit. But he is hoping to leave his mark at the committee — and current Executive Director Nick Ayers will be part of that legacy.

RGA Vice Chairman Matt Blunt (Mo.) was slated to become chairman in 2008, but because of his tough re-election race next year, Gov. Rick Perry (Texas) is likely to ascend to the top slot, according to knowledgeable GOP sources. But as part of the move, Perry has agreed to keep Ayers and other staff on through 2008. The Republican governors’ official vote on the move won’t take place until November, but it is expected to be a formality. It’s unclear, however, whether future RGA chairmen will buy into the staff-continuity concept.

Unlike the RGA, the DGA has a history of keeping some staff beyond the one-year terms, including former executive directors Penny Lee (2005-2006) and B.J. Thornberry (1999-2005). Daschle is likely to stay on through 2008.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson chaired the DGA for both 2005 and 2006 when Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who was vice chairman in 2005, did not succeed him in the top slot because of her competitive re-election race last year. His successive terms were a rarity. According to the DGA’s bylaws, governors are prohibited from a second term as chairman, except by unanimous vote of the executive committee.

Like Blunt, West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is up for re-election next year and is slated to become chairman of the DGA. But Manchin is in no danger of losing his bid for a second term and will balance the roles of candidate and chairman. Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is the current chairwoman.

For the next 14 months at least, both committees are likely to have young executive directors at the helm, with the 25-year-old Ayers at the RGA and Daschle, 33, at the DGA.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the two gubernatorial committees are not fierce adversaries. They share similar struggles, battling for relevancy in a city obsessed with control of the House and the Senate.

The DGA also is trying to define itself as a powerful subsection of the party because its governors work outside the increasingly unpopular city of Washington. Democratic governors represent 295 electoral votes (270 are needed to win the presidential election) and 15 Democratic governors preside over states that President Bush won in 2004. The committee also promotes its governors as leaders on policy issues, such as education and health care, and highlights their proven appeal in Republican-leaning states.

Each committee makes a similar case to potential donors, using Congressional redistricting and policy briefings as tools to generate interest.

The unbalanced election years — including a gubernatorial race every year — necessitates a four-year plan, particularly in budgeting, according to one experienced Democratic operative. Unlike the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, which trail their Democratic counterparts in fundraising, the RGA is outpacing the DGA in fundraising ($12.4 million to $5.3 million through the first six months of the year), but a fundraising advantage tends to matter less than in federal contests.

The ultimate effectiveness of the DGA and RGA directly affects Congress in two primary ways. First, governors in 33 of the 38 governorships up in 2009 and 2010 will play an active role in redrawing Congressional boundaries following the 2010 Census. Democrats currently hold 28 out of 50 governorships nationwide.

Secondly, Members of the House and Senate could benefit if they become candidates for governor themselves.

This year, Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) is the heavy favorite to become the next governor of Louisiana, and no current Member of Congress is likely to run for governor in 2008. But the list of potential 2010 candidates already is starting to grow, even three years out.

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) says she may run for governor in Texas, even if Perry seeks a third term. Rep. Artur Davis (D) of Alabama has made no secret of his statewide ambitions. And Reps. Lincoln Davis (D-Tenn.), Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.), Mike Michaud (D-Maine) and Allyson Schwartz (D-Pa.) are mentioned as potential gubernatorial candidates. Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.) also may run.

Over the past few cycles, Members of Congress have a mixed record of running for governor. In 2002, four House Members ran successfully for governor, including then-Reps. John Baldacci (D-Maine), Bob Riley (R- Ala.), Rod Blagojevich (D-Ill.) and Bob Ehrlich (R-Md.). Former Reps. Steve Largent (R-Okla.), Tom Barrett (D-Wis.) and Van Hilleary (R-Tenn.) all lost gubernatorial bids that cycle. One year later, then-Rep. Ernie Fletcher (R) successfully moved from the House to the governorship in Kentucky, even though his re-election prospects this fall are dim.

Last cycle, three more Members — former Reps. Jim Gibbons (R-Nev.), Butch Otter (R-Idaho) and Ted Strickland (D-Ohio) — were elected governor. Reps. Bob Beauprez (R-Colo.), Jim Davis (D-Fla.), Mark Green (R-Wis.), Ernest Istook (R-Okla.), Jim Nussle (R-Iowa) and Tom Osborne (R-Neb.) all lost bids.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on September 6, 2007. Copyright 2007 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.