New Hampshire 1: Democrats Cheer, but ‘06 Recruit Stumbles

By Nathan L. Gonzales

As Democratic leaders scramble for the hilltops to shout the results of last night’s victories in Virginia and New Jersey, one down ballot race in New Hampshire symbolizes part of the Democrats’ challenge next year.

Three-term incumbent Mayor Bob Baines (D) lost reelection in Manchester, 51%-48%, to Republican Alderman Frank Guinta. In his victory, Guinta not only knocked off the incumbent mayor but knocked the wind out of the sails of a top DCCC recruit.

Guinta highlighted Baines’ six-year record, including a 55 percent increase in violent crime, tax increases, and three local high schools that failed federal testing standards, according to local media reports. In the final week, Sens. John Kerry (D-MA), Evan Bayh (D-IN), and Joe Biden (D-DE), all made campaign appearances with Baines. Kerry and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) also paid for some staff for the mayor.

Though his intentions were not public, there was little secret about Baines’ plan to run for Congress in 2006. His reelection last night was supposed to be a small hurdle. Instead it was a brick wall. Baines has not made an official announcement, but according to one local Democrat, the mayor’s congressional prospects are definitely in doubt.

(On a side note, in Connecticut, two of Baines’ fellow mayors won reelection on their way to running for governor in 2006. Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy (D) won reelection 51%-46% and New Haven Mayor John DeStefano won reelection with 75%.)

Now in the Granite State, Cong. Rahm Emmanuel (D-IL) and the DCCC are left searching for another candidate to put New Hampshire’s 1st District in play. State Rep. Peter Sullivan (D) and attorney/U.S. Army Reserves officer Pete Duffy (D) are running. And Rye School Board Member Gary Dodds (D) is mentioned. But Baines was the clear target of Democratic recruitment efforts since he represented Manchester (population 107,006), the district’s anchor.

According to one local Democratic insider, state House Democratic Leader Jim Craig (D) of Manchester will likely field the next batch of recruiting phone calls. Steve Marchand (D), elected mayor of Portsmouth almost 24 hours ago, is also mentioned.

Cong. Jeb Bradley (R) was first elected in 2002, defeating Martha Fuller Clark (D), 58%-39%, in the open seat vacated by now-Sen. John Sununu. Bradley won reelection 63%-37% two years later over attorney Justin Nadeau (D).

The GOP congressman ended September with over $157,000 on hand, according to FEC reports. In comparison, Dodds showed almost $30,000 in the bank, while the others did not file third quarter reports.

The district is competitive by the numbers. George W. Bush won it both in 2004 (51%-48%) and 2000 (50%-47%). But Democrats cannot take back the House without credible candidates to serve as alternatives to Republican incumbents.

2005 Statewide Ballot Initiative Results

By Louis Jacobson

Here are the latest results, as of 10 am ET Nov. 9, for the key statewideballot measures on the Nov. 8 ballot.

California Prop. 73. Requires parental notification for minors seeking anabortion, except in cases of medical emergency or with a judicial waiver. 47% Yes, 53% No, 100% reporting

California Prop. 74. Extends employment time before teachers qualify fortenure, from two years to five. 45% Yes, 55% No, 100% reporting

California Prop. 75. Requires approval in writing from union members beforetheir dues are used for political purposes. 47% Yes, 53% No, 100% reporting

California Prop. 76. Caps growth of state spending. 38% Yes, 62% No, 100% reporting

California Prop. 77. Creates a non-partisan commission of retired judges todraw new district lines. 41% Yes, 59% No, 100% reporting

California Prop. 78. Creates a voluntary program of prescription-drugdiscounts for low- and moderate-income residents. Backed by drug industry. 42% Yes, 58% No, 100% reporting

California Prop. 79. Creates a program of prescription-drug discounts forlow- and moderate-income residents. Backed by consumer groups and laborunions. 39% Yes, 61% No, 100% reporting

California Prop. 80. Re-regulates electric service providers under theauspices of the California Public Utilities Commission; bars non-utilityelectricity providers from selling power directly to consumers; and requiresthat retail suppliers of electricity increase their renewable energypurchases by 2010, seven years sooner than currently mandated. 34% Yes, 66% No, 100% reporting

Washington Initiative 912. Repeals 9.5 cent per gallon gas tax enactedby the legislature in 2005 that would fund transportation improvementsstatewide. 47% Yes, 53% No, Updated 7:00 AM PT

Washington Initiative 330. Restricts non-economic damages to $350,000in medical-malpractice lawsuits. 46% Yes, 54% No, Updated 7:00 AM PT

Washington Initiative 336. Revokes licenses of doctors with threemalpractice incidents; creates a malpractice-insurance program thatsupplements private policies; regulates insurers' ability to increase rateson malpractice policies. 41% Yes, 59% No, Updated 7:00 AM PT

Washington Initiative 901. Bans indoor smoking in public places andoutside within a certain perimeter. 63% Yes, 37% No, Updated 7:00 AM PT

Washington Initiative 900. Requires performance audits for state andlocal governments. 57% Yes, 43% No, Updated 7:00 AM PT

New Jersey Public Question: Lieutenant Governor. Creates the office of lieutenant governor. 56% yes, 44% no, 89% reporting

Maine Question 1. Should voters repeal a law passed by the legislature thatprohibits discrimination based on sexual orientation? 45% Yes, 55% No, 84% reporting

Texas Prop. 2. Defines marriage as between a man and a woman. 76% Yes, 24% No, 94% reporting

Texas Prop. 4. Expands conditions under which a judge can deny bail tocriminal defendants. 85% yes, 15% no, 94% reporting

Texas Prop. 5. Allows legislature to exempt commercial loans from state lawsthat set maximum interest rates. 43% yes, 57% no, 94% reporting

Texas Prop. 7. Allows reverse mortgages. For: Realtors, AARP, bankers,Fannie Mae. 60% yes, 40% no, 94% reporting

Ohio Issue 1. Provides $1.85 billion in bonds for infrastructure andresearch and development. 54% yes, 46% no

Ohio Issue 2. Gives citizens right to an absentee ballot for any reason upto 35 days before the election. 37% yes, 63% no

Ohio Issue 3. Would significantly reduce the amount of money thatindividuals and political action committees could give to candidates. 33% yes, 67% no

Ohio Issue 4. Would create a non-partisan system of redistricting. 30% yes, 70% no

Ohio Issue 5. Would replace the Ohio secretary of state with a nine-memberbipartisan board to oversee elections. 30% yes, 70% no

New York state Proposal 2: Authorizes the creation of a state debt in theamount of $2.9 billion for the construction, improvement, reconditioning andpreservation of transportation systems and facilities. Yes 55%, No 45%, 97% reporting

New York state Proposal 1: The proposed amendment to Articles IV and VII ofthe Constitution would change the process for enactment of the state budget. Approved by roughly 3-1 ratio

Louis Jacobson, the deputy editor of Roll Call, has covered ballot initiatives in every cycle since 1994. He also handicaps the 50 state legislatures for the Rothenberg Political Report.

It’s Worth Your While to Watch the Off-Year Elections

By Stuart Rothenberg

Longtime readers of this column are probably well aware of my habit of downplaying the national importance of off-year gubernatorial elections, on the grounds that those contests say much more about the particular candidates involved and the political dynamics of the state than about the national mood or the president.

This year, I’m not so sure.

The candidates and their campaigns still matter a great deal. So do state-specific circumstances, including the relative strength of the parties, the standing of the incumbent governor and local issues.

But I believe that gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey are worth watching this year, in part because they may tell us something about whether the president’s problems have started to filter down to Republicans running for other offices. They also may tell us something about the mood of the electorate nationally — information that could be useful as we evaluate the parties’ opportunities and vulnerabilities next year.

While Democrats are on the attack nationally about alleged Republican ethical lapses from the White House to Congress to the governors’ mansions, the shoe is on the other foot in New Jersey. Voters in the Garden State see Democrats as more ethically challenged.

New Jersey has become a Democratic-leaning state, and, all things being equal, the Democratic nominee for governor, Sen. Jon Corzine, should have a considerable advantage over his GOP adversary, businessman/unsuccessful 2002 U.S. Senate candidate Doug Forrester.

But ethics questions surrounding Corzine, coming on top of a scandal that forced then-Gov. Jim McGreevey (D) from office, have given Republicans an opportunity. Moreover, Forrester’s effective use of the property tax issue has also enhanced his chances.

By 43 percent to 22 percent, registered voters told a WNBC/Marist poll that Democrats were more to blame for government corruption in the state. The same poll found that voters favored Republican gubernatorial candidate Forrester as likely to do a better job cleaning up corruption, 41 percent to 36 percent.

A stronger-than-expected showing by Forrester — not to mention an unexpected victory — would suggest that Garden State voters, who gave Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry (D-Mass.) a healthy 7-point victory, are more affected by state and local issues than by the negative national media attention that has dogged Republicans for months.

Barring an upset victory by Forrester in New Jersey, Virginia is likely to get most of the national attention, since the race has been regarded as close for months.

True, Gov. Mark Warner (D) now controls the state’s top office, so a Tim Kaine (D) victory would constitute the maintenance of the status quo, not a break from it. But when the Virginia gubernatorial race began many months ago, most observers thought the Republican nominee, Jerry Kilgore, had the edge given the Republican lean of the state. So a Kaine victory, even given the popularity of Warner, would still be noteworthy as a psychological defeat for the GOP.

One GOP insider told me that a Kaine victory, particularly if it is regarded as more decisive than polls have been predicting for weeks, would be regarded as “the canary in the coal mine.”


“It could be worse than people now know. We could be in for a big ass whipping,” said the veteran Republican insider who promised that a clear Kaine victory would produce a “meltdown” in the national party.

You can bet that a Republican loss in Virginia’s gubernatorial race will have allies of President Bush blaming the defeat on the campaign of Kilgore, while some party strategists will surely point fingers at the White House — though only under the table, so that Karl Rove doesn’t see.

Privately, Republican insiders are expressing more and more concern about Kilgore’s showing in Northern Virginia, where down-ballot Republican candidates seem to be running into a strong wind. If Kilgore fares poorly there, it would unquestionably have GOP strategists worried about the party’s standing in similar suburban areas around the country. (Obviously, weaker-than-expected Republican showings in other parts of the state would raise different questions.)

The bottom line is that the Republicans need at least a split in next week’s gubernatorial elections to change the current political psychology. If that happens, they can argue that voters are focused on individual candidates and individual races, not on Hurricane Katrina, high gas prices, the war in Iraq or Scooter Libby. And that would boost their flagging morale.

On its face, a Democratic sweep of the two gubernatorial contests would merely maintain the status quo. But it would still be a disappointing outcome for national Republicans.

This column first appeared November 3, 2005 in Roll Call. Reprinted with permission. Copyright 2005 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

New Print Edition: NM1 & Washington Senate

The new November 4, 2005 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. Here is a sample from the current issue.

New Mexico 1: Repeat Defender
By Nathan L. Gonzales

First District Cong. Heather Wilson (R) is no stranger to Democratic target lists. Since her initial election back in 1998, Democrats have consistently targeted the congresswoman, and her Albuquerque-area seat, for takeover, in large part because of its Democratic performance.

But each cycle, Wilson prevails. With or without a Green Party candidate on the ballot and often without any help from the top of the ticket, she has won reelection four times. But Democrats are hoping the fifth time is a charm.

In the last few weeks, state Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) announced she would take on the incumbent. Democrats believe Madrid is one of their strongest candidates in the country and that she is the strongest challenger Wilson has ever faced.

Wilson has heard it before, but never in the sort of environment she could face next year. President George W. Bush’s shrinking job approval numbers are a concern for Republicans nationwide, but specifically for incumbents like Wilson who sit in Democratic-tilting districts.

The Republican has proven to be a tough campaigner, but she faces her toughest fight yet. More...

Washington Senate: Crosscurrent

In a cycle where the tide is turning against the Republican Party, one candidate is trying to swim upstream. Former insurance executive Mike McGavick (R) is taking on Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) in Washington, as she seeks to solidify herself and win reelection to a second term.

The Evergreen State has a recent history of ousting incumbents. Back in 1980, Republican Slade Gorton defeated Sen. Warren Magnuson (D). Two decades later, Cantwell knocked off Gorton, albeit by a slim margin. Now, Cantwell is hoping to avoid the same fate as her predecessor.

In a state that’s trending more blue than purple, McGavick as a tough task ahead of him. But after Democrats narrowly and controversially won the governor’s race last cycle, GOPers are hoping to tap into any voter dissatisfaction with the outcome and current governor. The rest of the story...

Virginia & New Jersey Go Down to the Wire
Stuart Rothenberg

Early on, Republican Jerry Kilgore seemed to have the edge in this year’s Virginia’s gubernatorial race, while Senator Jon Corzine (D) seemed headed for a decisive win in New Jersey.

But as the two races head to the wire, Kilgore’s advantage seems to have evaporated, and Corzine’s position has grown more uncertain. Read more...

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