Friday, January 12, 2007

New Print Edition: 2008 Senate Outlook

The new January 12, 2007 print edition of The Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. Subscribe now through the 2008 election for only $345 for a two-year subscription and save $49, instead of buying two one-year subscriptions for $197 each. And finally, we are also able to accept payment by either credit card or check. Just go click on the Google Checkout button on the side-bar of the website.

Here's a peak into this issue:

Senate Overview - The Lay of the Land

Republicans start off the 2008 election cycle on the defensive. Not only did they lose their majority in the Democratic sweep of '06, but now they find themselves defending 21 of the 33 Senate seats up for election.

A quick look at our chart shows few Republican opportunities and a number of states where Democrats could make gains. While the Presidential contest will have some affect on the overall national environment - and therefore on the parties' prospects - it's certainly fair to say that Democrats start off with a good chance to gain a seat or two, thereby increasing their narrow margin. A rash of GOP retirements, and further voter dissatisfaction with President Bush and his party, could give Democrats even more opportunities to pad their advantage in the Senate.

The good news for Republicans is that President George W. Bush lost only four states in '04 where Republicans are up for election in 2008 - Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon - while he carried five of the twelve states represented by Democrats up for reelection. That means that next year's races aren't taking place on terribly hostile terrain for the GOP. Still, the make-up of the class of '08 definitely benefits Democrats.

For the rest of the overview, as well as our state-by-state breakdown of the races, you must be a subscriber to the print edition. Just the ratings with no explanation are available here.