Monday, February 23, 2009

New Print Edition: 2010 House Outlook

The February 20, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of this edition:

House Outlook For 2010

The 2010 election cycle begins at such an unusual time in American history that it’s hard to know where to begin.

The nation is in a deep recession, created by a housing and financial meltdown. Congress just passed a huge spending package, and more spending by the federal government – whether to prop up the banking and automobile industries or simply to stimulate the overall economy – is inevitable.

The Democratic Party’s ID numbers are good, while the GOP’s remain in the tank. And yet, Republicans seem to have found their traditional voice about spending, taxes and big government – themes that may not resonate perfectly right now but are likely to gain traction with bigger deficits, more government control and the inevitable tax increases.

Democrats have a popular President, a better image than the GOP, far more financial resources for the cycle (even though the DCCC’s debt of $16 million dwarfs the NRCC’s $6.5 million debt) and the advantages of incumbency. They also currently hold many Republican-leaning, conservative districts, making those incumbents vulnerable to a likely drop-off in turnout in a midterm year.

While it’s far too early to put a number on net changes this cycle, Republicans simply have more opportunities for pick-ups than do Democrats. Much depends, of course, on whether the political environment that we witnessed over the past two cycles solidifies, or whether it returns to something approximating what it was before President Bush’s popularity took a nosedive.

Subscribers get the entire House Overview in the print edition, which includes nine pages of analysis on the most competitive races in the country.