Tuesday, June 02, 2009

New Print Edition: 2010 House Outlook

The May 29, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of introduction to this edition:

House Outlook For 2010

The Republican brand remains damaged, and GOP registration is down in most states, but 2009-10 surely will be a better cycle for Republicans than the last two.

Midterms are almost always difficult for the party in the White House, and questions about Democratic turnout are significant. Still, Democrats have many advantages (including money), and they aren’t likely to suffer significant House losses unless the President’s popularity plummets – which is unlikely given Barack Obama’s personal skills.

Retirements will play a significant part in determining which party will gain seats and how many they will net.

Republican attempts to recruit candidates in districts they have often ignored are not likely to pay huge dividends immediately, but are an important way for the party to begin its long trek back from minority status.

Even with their 257 districts, Democrats still have a number of opportunities in seats currently held by the GOP. But they also have a considerable number of conservative and Republican seats to defend. Given possible shifting of the national political landscape, some of these districts could grow increasingly vulnerable over the next 18 months.

It’s still far too early to put a number on net changes this cycle, though small Republican gains would seem the most likely outcome.

One thing is clear: With Republicans holding 178 seats and needing an impossible 40-seat gain to win a majority, Democratic control of the House is not at risk in next year’s elections.

Subscribers to the print edition get the state-by-state analysis of the most competitive races in the country.