Tuesday, January 12, 2010

MA Sen Moved to Narrow Advantage for Dems

The Senate race in Massachusetts is ending in a flurry of money and activity. With just days before the Tuesday election, public and private polls show Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) with anywhere from a solid lead to a statistically insignificant one over state Sen. Scott Brown (R). Brown's movement in the race as stirred the Democratic nest and now Coakley, the state Democratic Party, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are leveling attack ads against Brown.

The next few days will show whether the ads will work to stop the bleeding. Even though it would be easy to put the race into Toss-Up, we still believe that the Democratic nature of the state and the latest Democratic attacks make Coakley a narrow favorite to hold the open seat. We're moving the race from Clear Advantage to Narrow Advantage for the Democrats but we'll continue to monitor developments.

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 3 D)
  • Reid (D-NV)
  • ND Open (Dorgan, D)
  • DE Open (Kaufman, D)
Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)
  • KY Open (Bunning, R)
  • MO Open (Bond, R)
  • NH Open (Gregg, R)
  • OH Open (Voinovich, R)
  • IL Open (Burris, D)
  • Bennet (D-CO)
  • Lincoln (D-AR)
  • Specter (D-PA)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 1 D)
  • Burr (R-NC)
  • Vitter (R-LA)
  • MA Open (Kirk, D) *
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)
  • Grassley (R-IA)
  • FL Open (LeMieux, R)
  • CT Open (Dodd, D)
Currently Safe (10 R, 10 D)
  • Bennett (R-UT)
  • Coburn (R-OK)
  • Crapo (R-ID)
  • DeMint (R-SC)
  • Isakson (R-GA)
  • McCain (R-AZ)
  • Murkowski (R-AK)
  • Shelby (R-AL)
  • Thune (R-SD)
  • KS Open (Brownback, R)
  • Bayh (D-IN)
  • Boxer (D-CA)
  • Feingold (D-WI)
  • Gillibrand (D-NY)
  • Inouye (D-HI)
  • Leahy (D-VT)
  • Mikulski (D-MD)
  • Murray (D-WA)
  • Schumer (D-NY)
  • Wyden (D-OR)