Is the Time Ripe for Third-Party and Independent Bids?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Both the Republican and Democratic brands are damaged. Voters think the country is headed off on the wrong track and still clamor for change. Every primary and general election hopeful who can (and some who reasonably can’t) is running against Washington, D.C., and against professional politicians.

So is this the time for third-party candidates and Independents to show their political muscle and become serious players in the fall campaigns and in November?

In a few places the answer is “yes.” In most, it’s still a thundering “no.”

There are really three types of Independent hopefuls: contenders, spoilers and pretenders.

Independent candidates for governor in at least three states, all of them in New England, are running serious races, and the number of credible non-major-party candidates could grow if Minnesota’s Independence Party nominates someone with serious credentials or personal resources.

Former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee, now an Independent, may well have the best shot of the New England bunch of winning his state’s top office in November, thereby replacing retiring Gov. Don Carcieri (R), who is finishing his second term.

Chafee bears a well-known political name. His father, John, served four terms in the U.S. Senate, and he served one. Both men ran as Republicans. And like his father, Lincoln Chafee was a liberal Republican whose record angered conservatives both in Rhode Island and nationally.

The likely GOP nominee for governor is former gubernatorial aide John Robitaille, whose electoral high water mark is losing a state legislative contest by four votes. Two Democratic statewide officeholders are competing for their party’s nomination, state Treasurer Frank Caprio and state Attorney General Patrick Lynch.

Chafee currently leads in public polls in three-way ballot tests, and his appeal across the partisan spectrum makes him a contender.

In Maine, Independent Eliot Cutler looks like a very credible candidate in a contest that now, some two months before the state’s primary, boasts a field of candidates that is almost large enough to deserve its own ZIP code. The winner will replace retiring Gov. John Baldacci (D), who won re-election four years ago with 38 percent of the vote.

A native of Maine who served on the staff of former Sen. Edmund Muskie (D) and then in President Jimmy Carter’s Office of Management and Budget, Cutler was a partner in the Washington, D.C., powerhouse law firm of Akin Gump Strass Hauer and Feld.

Cutler rightly points out that Maine has not been reluctant to elect Independent governors — in 1974 James Longley won the state’s top job as an Independent, and Angus King won two terms the same way, in 1994 and 1998. The last major party nominee to win at least 50 percent of the vote in a Maine gubernatorial contest was Joseph Brennan in 1982.

While incumbents in Maine and Rhode Island are term-limited and unable to seek re-election, Massachusetts incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick (D) is running for a second term despite having a job-approval rating in public polls of under 40 percent.

Two Republican businessmen, Charles Baker and Christy Mihos, are competing for the GOP nomination, while Patrick has avoided a primary. But in the fall, an Independent, state Treasurer Tim Cahill, will be a factor.

Cahill, initially elected in 2002 and reelected four years later, ran and served as a Democrat until last year, when he switched his party affiliation to Independent. A critic of the Obama health care plan and an opponent of tax hikes, he has the kind of appeal that could hurt the GOP’s chances in November (which explains why Republicans are attacking him). Polls generally show Cahill running a strong third, getting about one-fifth of the vote.

The Independence Party nominee in Minnesota has not yet selected a nominee. The frontrunner for the nomination appears to be Tom Horner, a former newspaper reporter and editor who worked as press secretary and then chief of staff for then-Sen. David Durenberger (R).

But elsewhere, third-party nominees may prove to be less important than current speculation suggests, and even less important than in 2008.

A recently much-ballyhooed Quinnipiac University poll that was cited by some in the media as having potentially “bad news” for the GOP because it showed Republicans leading Democrats by 5 points in a head-to-head generic ballot test but losing to Democrats by 11 points in a three-way ballot test that includes a tea party representative is pretty much without value.

Polls are useful only when they reflect reality, and tea party candidates running as Independents or third-party nominees aren’t likely to have the resources or credibility to draw in the double digits when the fall rolls around. Most tea party types are mere pretenders.

Elsewhere, a third-party candidate probably cost then-state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) a Congressional seat in Ohio in 2008, but given the change in national mood, that’s not likely to be the case again this year when Stivers once again runs against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) in the state’s 15th district.

Certainly some races will turn out to be so close that an Independent could turn out to be a spoiler. But right now, that’s almost impossible to predict.

Interestingly, two of the three New England Independents are current or former officeholders, while the other, Cutler, has been in and around Washington for years. That puts to rest the idea that most Independent candidates are true outsiders.


This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on March 29, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Are Republicans Ready to Mount a Comeback in the Northeast?

By Stuart Rothenberg

It’s so widely accepted as a truth that the Republican Party is clinically dead in the Northeast that no warnings to the contrary would even get a second look. But like so many other sweeping generalizations with more than a grain of truth, the death of the GOP in the Mid-Atlantic and New England states has been greatly exaggerated.

True, over the past decade, the GOP has been slaughtered in New England. Republicans don’t control a single state legislative chamber in the six-state region, and Democrats now hold all 21 of New England’s House seats after losing their last holdout, Rep. Christopher Shays, in southwestern Connecticut last year.

Democrats also hold nine of the region’s 12 Senate seats and hope to pick up a 10th in New Hampshire next year.

In the Mid-Atlantic, things aren’t much better for Republicans. New York, New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland each send two Democrats to the Senate, while Pennsylvania has one Democrat and one Republican, Arlen Specter — who is a top Democratic target in 2010. The GOP controls the Pennsylvania state Senate, but Democrats have a majority in each of the region’s other legislative chambers.

In the House, Republicans hold only one of Maryland’s eight districts, five of New Jersey’s 13 districts and just three of New York’s 29 districts. The GOP holds all of Delaware’s (OK, it’s just one), but only seven of Pennsylvania’s 19 House seats.

And in the 12 states in New England and the Mid-Atlantic, the GOP holds just three governorships: Rhode Island, Connecticut and Vermont.

But 2010 could be the start of a comeback for the GOP in the Northeast, in part because the party suffered such complete devastation that a bit of a rebound seems close to inevitable.

First, two of the party’s three governors are eligible to seek re-election, and Jim Douglas in Vermont and Jodi Rell in Connecticut are expected to do so. Rell is wildly popular and a solid favorite for another term, while Douglas is a more narrow favorite.

The GOP is likely to lose the Rhode Island governorship after holding it, somewhat surprisingly, for 16 years in a row. But Pennsylvania’s open governorship offers the GOP an excellent opportunity for a takeover, and Republicans may even be competitive in the race for Maine’s open governorship.

In New York, Republican Jim Tedisco is favored to win appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D) open Congressional seat, adding to the GOP ranks in the state. Businessman Richard Hanna (R) came within an eyelash of upsetting Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) in November, and Republicans are certain to make another run at the two-term Democrat next year.

Assemblyman Greg Ball (R) is entering the race in New York’s 19th district (which stretches from Westchester almost to Poughkeepsie), giving the party a credible nominee against two-term Rep. John Hall (D) in a GOP-leaning district, and if the party can recruit a strong challenger to Rep. Eric Massa in the 29th district, the freshman Democrat could have major problems.

In statewide contests, Gillibrand could face a nasty Senate primary, as could Gov. David Paterson (D), giving Republicans two opportunities. The Democratic nominees would be favored in both races, but a strong GOP bid in either contest would boost party morale, helping further recruitment down the road and down the ballot.

In New Jersey, polling shows the favorite for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, former U.S. attorney Chris Christie, being a formidable opponent for Gov. Jon Corzine (D) later this year, especially given the state’s economic problems.

In Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd (D) suddenly looks weaker than ever, primarily because of allegations that he benefited from special treatment given to him by mortgage lender Countrywide Financial. Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) is considering a run, and while he would be an underdog, he would at the very least be the most formidable GOP Senate candidate in Connecticut since Lowell Weicker in 1988.

If the National Republican Congressional Committee can recruit state Sen. John McKinney, 44, to run against freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D) in Connecticut’s 4th district, the GOP would also have a top-tier contest in the state. McKinney, the youngest child of former Rep. Stewart McKinney (R-Conn.), is in his fifth term in the state Senate, where he is Minority Leader.

Republicans will make major efforts to win back Maryland’s 1st district and Pennsylvania’s 10th — two seats that the party never should have lost because each remains very Republican territory. While the open New Hampshire Senate seat of retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R) gives Democrats another opportunity for a gain in New England, Rep. Paul Hodes’ (D) Senate bid opens up his House seat, giving Republicans an excellent opportunity to win back another seat in the region.

I’m certainly not predicting major Republican gains in the Northeast, but given the avalanche of discussion about the death of the Republican Party from Maryland to Maine, it’s at the very least worth noting that, though fundamentally far weaker than it was 30 or 40 years ago, the GOP can still contest many races in the New England and Mid-Atlantic states.

It’s possible that 2009 and 2010 could be the beginning of a rebound for the party. While Democrats will continue to hold a clear advantage in the region, Republicans have the potential to become relevant once again.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on February 23, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Maine Senate: Collins Demonstrated Widespread Appeal in Victory

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) was one of the few Republicans who looked increasingly solid as the campaign developed, rather than more vulnerable. Her 61 percent to 39 percent victory over Rep. Tom Allen (D) was impressive, but even that margin doesn’t paint the whole picture of how well she did — and the Senator did it at the same time then-Sen. Barack Obama (D) carried Maine by 17 points.

Collins won an amazing 40 percent of Obama voters. That was against a sitting Democratic Congressman who has represented half of the state for more than a decade. She also won one-third of self-described liberal voters and one-third of Democratic voters. Wyoming’s two Senators were the only other Republican Senate candidates to reach those numbers. And there is a difference between liberals in Cheyenne, Wyo., and Portland, Maine.

Collins also won approximately two-thirds of self-described moderates and independents.

But her support with liberals and voters in the middle didn’t hurt her among the GOP base. Collins won 90 percent of Republicans, which was more than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sens. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) and Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) were able to keep in the tent. She also won 85 percent of conservatives, placing her behind only Roberts and Wyoming’s duo.

Collins also scored an impressive 59 percent with female voters. In comparison, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won 34 percent of women in the Maine presidential contest. Maine’s junior Senator also won almost two-thirds of the male vote.

Collins’ victory shows that not all pre-election storylines materialize into reality. Running for re-election in a blue state, against a Democratic Congressman who represented half of the state, and in the shadow of her colleague, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R), was supposed to guarantee supreme vulnerability.

But Collins ran like a vulnerable incumbent from the beginning, and despite a late September Mellman Group poll that showed an 8-point race, the outcome was never in doubt.


This story first appeared on RollCall.com on November 26, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Why is Dole Vulnerable and Not Collins?

By Stuart Rothenberg and Nathan L. Gonzales

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Two years ago, as the 2007-2008 election cycle was beginning, one female Republican senator up for re-election looked to be in serious danger: Maine's Susan Collins.

But with just three weeks left until Election Day, the moderate Collins now appears to be one of the few embattled Republican senators who could survive the forthcoming Democratic wave.

On the other hand, North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole, once regarded as a lock for re-election, looks as if she is about to fall at the hands of Democratic challenger Kay Hagan.

How did Dole become more endangered than Collins? You can read the rest of the story on CNN.com.

Are Senate Races Moving in One Partisan Direction?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Senate election cycles normally take one of two paths. Either all the close races fall toward one party in a political “wave,” or individual races are decided by race-specific factors, particularly the quality of the candidates, the power of incumbency and local issues.

We’ve had cycles when both parties have suffered a substantial number of defeats with only a minimal net change of Senate seats (1976 and 1978 are prime examples), but that’s not going to happen this cycle. Republicans have only a single reasonable opportunity for a takeover this year.

We’ve had four noteworthy Senate “waves” in the past 28 years, in 2006, 1994, 1986 and 1980, and it’s possible that we’ll see another one this year. But it’s also possible that all the talk about Democratic Senate opportunities is just a bit over-hyped, and that Democrats will have a good year, not a great one.

One way of anticipating whether a wave is likely to develop is to monitor competitive Senate contests periodically to determine whether they are moving in one direction. That’s what I intend to do in this column. Of course, any wave may not show itself until after the two presidential nominating conventions. Still, the way individual Senate races move in the near term may offer some clue about a trend.

I must begin with one caveat: In evaluating races, I do not factor in certain widely circulated polls, including those conducted by Rasmussen Reports, that I regard as less reliable. (In other words, I treat some polls as if they don’t even exist.)

Democrats continue to be well- positioned to take over three GOP-held seats: open seats in Virginia and New Mexico, and Sen. John Sununu’s seat in New Hampshire. There is no evidence of significant movement in any of those contests, though Republicans continue to insist that Sununu’s race will close.

Democrats, of course, don’t need movement in any of the contests. They lead in all three.

The fourth most vulnerable Senate seat, the open Republican seat in Colorado, remains competitive. But given the state’s recent political behavior and the national mood, GOP insiders have little reason to be optimistic about their chances.

The next most vulnerable Senate seat, in Minnesota, has moved toward the Republicans in recent weeks. GOP strategists have successfully put presumptive Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Al Franken on the defensive, both over his nonpayment of certain taxes and, more importantly, a variety of statements he has made over the years.

Franken has defended his remarks by insisting that they were part of his shtick and intended as satire, not statements of his beliefs. But his language has been crude and his comedy often biting, and even some Democratic officeholders have expressed concern about his judgment.

Republican Sen. Norm Coleman has benefited in the polls of late, and even though Franken has time to change the dynamic of the race, it now seems likely that the comedian turned politician will have to defend himself repeatedly over the next four months. At the very least, that puts the challenger constantly on the defensive, improving Coleman’s prospects.

There are no signs of movement in Alaska, and that’s good news for Democrats. Polls continue to show challenger Mark Begich (D) leading Sen. Ted Stevens (R) narrowly. The longer that race stays tight, the better for Democrats, who are trying to knock off a state political icon.

The fact that the Maine race has not closed in surveys widely viewed as reliable is disappointing news for Democrats. GOP Sen. Susan Collins continues to be well-regarded and has a comfortable lead over her challenger, Rep. Tom Allen (D). Sitting in a blue state that went for Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Collins would seem to be a perfect target in a “wave” election, but so far, her prospects are undimmed.

Democrats remain upbeat about Jeff Merkley’s chances of ousting Sen. Gordon Smith in Oregon, but I’m not convinced that they are any closer to doing that now than they were four or five months ago.

True, the recent decision by Independent John Frohmayer to drop his Senate candidacy is good news for Merkley. But it is difficult to see it as all that significant, especially since Democrats spent so much time and effort arguing that Frohmayer’s candidacy was inconsequential when he was a candidate. If they were right that he wasn’t going to be a factor in the race, they cannot now claim that his exit is all that important.

Still, this definitely is a race to watch for possible “wave” evidence, and Smith almost certainly will have a fight on his hands all the way to November.

If a wave develops, the three best places to watch may well be North Carolina, Kentucky and Mississippi. Democratic prospects in all three seem to have improved recently (especially after post-primary polling in North Carolina and Kentucky), giving the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee more options in the campaign’s final months.

Even Republicans seem increasingly nervous about Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.), who hasn’t released polling numbers since February and has been up on TV since late May. Dole’s opponent, state Sen. Kay Hagan (D), has some liabilities, but I have little doubt about her work ethic.

Finally, the Louisiana Senate race, pitting incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) against her GOP challenger, John Kennedy, hasn’t changed at all. Polls show the Senator ahead, but the fundamentals almost guarantee a close race.

In sum, developments in two states, Minnesota and Maine, should have Republicans optimistic, while Democrats have reasons to be happy about some longer-shot races, as well as their top takeover opportunities.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on June 23, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

When Running Is a Family Affair

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Former Rep. Jim Slattery (D) officially filed his long-shot bid to unseat Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.).

It’s common for candidates to make their announcement with family in tow, but Tuesday's event was different because Slattery’s son, Mike, is simultaneously running for the state House. Both Slatterys face primary opponents on Aug. 5, but they hit the campaign trail together at least through the summer.

In Maine, former state Senate majority leader Chellie Pingree (D) is running in the 1st Congressional District to replace Rep. Tom Allen (D), who is running for the Senate. Pingree is the favorite in the crowded June 10 primary, while her daughter, Hannah, is running for her fourth term in the state House.

Hannah Pingree, currently the state House Majority Leader, was first elected in 2002, the same year her mother lost the Senate race to Sen. Susan Collins (R).

Democratic Michigan Rep. Sander Levin’s son, Andy, was mentioned as a potential candidate in Michigan’s 9th district this year but ultimately decided not to run.

Former Sen. Mike DeWine’s (R-Ohio) son, Pat, is a Hamilton County commissioner who ran in the 2nd Congressional district special election last cycle. Pat DeWine finished a distant fourth in a June 2005 special primary election. And Mike DeWine ended up losing his re-election bid, 56 percent to 44 percent, 17 months later.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on June 3, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Maine Senate: Susan Collins May Be Vulnerable, but Don’t Underestimate Her

By Stuart Rothenberg

If you listen to Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) talk for a few minutes, you are likely to think that she doesn’t have the toughness and quickness to hold off her likely Democratic challenger, Rep. Tom Allen.

Well, stop thinking that way.

I don’t know whether Collins will be able to swim against a potentially strong anti-President Bush, anti-Iraq War current in 2008, but at this point, I’m certainly not going to bet against her.

Collins was the third moderate Republican woman elected to the Senate from Maine in a 30-year period, following in the footsteps of the late Margaret Chase Smith (elected to her final term in 1966) and Olympia Snowe (first elected in 1994), who currently occupies the state’s other Senate seat.

A native of Caribou, Collins worked for two GOP moderates, former Maine Gov. John McKernan and former Sen. Bill Cohen, before taking a job as Massachusetts’ deputy treasurer. She returned to her home state to run for governor in 1994, finishing a disappointing third behind Joe Brennan (D) and the winner, Independent Angus King.

Two years later, she ran for Cohen’s open Senate seat. Her prospects didn’t look good, but she won a three-way primary for the Republican nomination and went on to defeat Brennan, 49.2 percent to 43.9 percent in the 1996 general election.

More notable is that Collins drew 298,422 votes in that race at the same time that her party’s presidential candidate, then-Sen. Bob Dole (Kan.), was drawing just 186,378 votes (30.8 percent). Collins ran an incredible 18.3 points ahead of Dole and garnered 112,000 more votes than he did.

Collins’ strength that year, in an open seat and a hostile environment for Republicans, suggests that she ran a good race and had considerable personal appeal. It also confirmed the state’s reputation for independence.

Six years after she was first elected to the Senate, Collins went on to pummel 2002 Senate opponent Chellie Pingree (D), who was then a state legislator and widely viewed as a credible challenger.

Collins won that second term with 58.4 percent, winning all five of the state’s largest counties — Androscoggin (Lewiston-Auburn), Cumberland (Portland), Kennebec (Augusta and Waterville), Penobscot (Bangor and Orono) and York (Kennebunk, Biddeford and Saco). In the presidential election two years earlier, Bush won only one of those counties (Penobscot), and he did so with less than 50 percent of the vote. Collins won York and Penobscot, the most Republican of the five, with more than 60 percent of the vote.

If Allen runs, he almost certainly will be a threat to the Senator all the way until Election Day.

A former Rhodes Scholar with an undergraduate degree from Bowdoin College and a law degree from Harvard, Allen is serving his sixth term in Congress. He served on the non-partisan Portland City Council, including a term as mayor (appointed by his fellow councilmembers).

In his initial Congressional race, Allen won a heavily contested primary against Dale McCormick, an openly gay liberal state Senator who helped found the Maine Lesbian and Gay Political Alliance. The primary was widely portrayed as a test of ideology and activism, with Allen the establishment and the moderate candidate and McCormick the insurgent and the liberal.

McCormick counted on her ideological message and intensely loyal base, and the outcome was extremely close. But Allen won the nomination 51.6 percent to 48.4 percent and went on to handily defeat the sitting Congressman, Jim Longley (R).

Since elected, Allen’s liberal and organized labor interest group ratings have been at or near 100 percent. National Journal’s ratings place him as the 86th most liberal Member of the House in 2006, sandwiching him between Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.) and Rep. Robert Wexler (D-Fla.). In contrast, Collins ranked as the 46th most liberal Member of the Senate in 2006.

Once a reliable GOP bastion, Maine now at least leans Democratic. While Republicans control both of the state’s Senate seats, Democrats sit in both House seats, occupy the governor’s office and hold majorities in both chambers of the Legislature (though their majority in the state Senate is a paper-thin one seat).

The last Republican to carry the state for president was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Since then, the best GOP presidential showing was in 2004, when incumbent Bush won just 44 percent of Maine’s vote.

Collins and Snowe seem to have discovered the formula for winning elections in Maine. Both of the moderate women come from the state’s 2nd district — Snowe represented it in Congress, while Collins hails from it — and have been able to rally support in that more conservative part of the state, while at the same time neutralizing some of the Democrats’ advantage in the normally more liberal 1st district.

Democrats no doubt will attack Collins for supporting the Bush agenda, as well as for breaking a two-term pledge. Some of those attacks may stick, but she will be able to cite a number of high-profile instances where she broke with the president or her GOP colleagues, including her “not guilty” votes on the articles of impeachment of former President Bill Clinton, her vote against opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling and her generally moderate views on abortion.

Though it is early, Collins’ electoral fate seems tied to whether Maine voters see her reelection as a referendum on Bush and the Iraq War or as a referendum on Collins herself. Since she has been able to run far ahead of other GOP candidates in the past, and since Bush won’t be the party standard-bearer during the 2008 general election, Collins begins with the edge. But Democrats will come after her aggressively, and she must expect a difficult contest.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on March 5, 2007. Copyright 2007 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Maine Senate & Kansas 2

The new February 8, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. We've posted the first few paragraphs of each story, but for both articles and the complete breakdown of each race, you must subscribe. At RothenbergPoliticalReport.com you can subscribe by either check or credit card.


Here's a peak into this issue:

Maine Senate: Another Bush Casualty?
By Nathan L. Gonzales

If races took place in a vacuum, Sen. Susan Collins (R) would be in great shape for reelection. But as we learned in 2006, sometimes national dynamics (the President's unpopularity) and international situations (the war in Iraq) can overshadow the candidates and cause incumbents who would normally be safe to fight for their electoral lives.

Susan Collins is no stranger to the Democratic target list. She was an early target during the 2002 cycle, in part because she garnered less than 50% in her initial 1996 election. Collins faced a highly-touted and well-funded state legislator, Chellie Pingree, in '02 but disposed of her handily 58%-42%.

But that was a much different environment. President Bush is very unpopular, as is the war in Iraq, and Republicans are still trying to recover from significant losses last cycle. And even though it's hard to imagine the political environment worsening for Republicans, it's also hard to see it getting significantly better.

In the July 29, 2001 edition of the Report, we wrote, "The question is now whether Collins will have to worry about the sliding popularity of President George W. Bush (R), which could undermine her case for reelection with Maine voters." Almost six years later, the question - and senator's task - remains the same.

Collins will likely face 1st District Cong. Tom Allen (D). He has all but announced his candidacy and represents half the state. Republicans argue it's the wrong half since the most recent statewide office-holders, of both parties, have come out of the 2nd District. Either way, Allen's candidacy is serious, and he is a credible threat to Collins in an environment that remains toxic for Republicans.

Kansas 2: Final Lap?
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Jim Ryun isn't use to losing. From high school track star to the Olympics to Congress, Ryun has achieved success on multiple levels. But in 2006, inattentiveness to his district and unawareness of the political atmosphere contributed to the Republican congressman's defeat. Now, just a couple months later, Ryun is running to reclaim his old seat.

Democrat Nancy Boyda didn't let a significant 2004 loss stop her as she kept running and knocked off Ryun in the Democratic wave last year. She ran a conventional race the first time but opted to shun Washington, D.C.-based consultants in favor of a more local effort.

According to one GOP insider, Ryun's problem was a classic one: he lost touch. He moved to D.C., bought a house, and didn't return to the district as often as many of his colleagues. "[Ryun] got to the point where he didn't think he could lose," one Kansas Republican told the Report.

Ryun is just one of many Republicans who lost last cycle and are running again. But there is no guarantee he will have a free shot at the nomination. Moderates in the fractured Kansas Republican Party could very well put up a challenger for the seat, with state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins getting the most attention.

Even though Boyda and Ryun have faced each other twice before, this race will likely be very different. Incumbency is switched, and Ryun is now forced to run a challenger race. For the sprinter, this will be more like a marathon, and the longest race of his life.

To get the rest of this issue and future issues, including our 2008 House Overview next time, subscribe now.