House Members Soft-Pedal Their Résumés in Gubernatorial Campaigns

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Even though having Washington, D.C., on your résumé is supposed to be like having a scarlet letter on your lapel this election cycle, more than a dozen current and former Members of Congress are running for governor — and trying to overcome voters’ ill feelings toward the nation’s capital.

Not everyone can be as lucky as Rep. Mary Fallin, the heavy favorite to win the July 27 Oklahoma GOP primary and the general election in November. Instead, Members are trying to figure out how to maximize their federal experience without taking on too much water in their campaign.

“It’s a handicap in more ways than a help. Even more so this time,” said one GOP consultant who has worked with multiple Members who ran for governor. Not only do they have to balance their calendar between official duties and the trail, Members are also casting potentially controversial votes in the middle of a campaign.

In Alabama, Rep. Artur Davis is favored to win the June 1 Democratic gubernatorial primary, but victory is not guaranteed. Davis has been running a general election campaign from the outset and voted against the health care reform bill. So even though Davis’ Democratic primary opponent, state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, is running a mediocre campaign, he appears to be drawing votes from disenchanted Democrats who are upset with Davis for voting against health care reform.

In Georgia, GOP Rep. Nathan Deal postponed his resignation from the House in order to vote against the health care bill, hoping that doing so would give him a boost in the gubernatorial primary. But his departure from office was met with headlines about a possible ethics committee investigation into whether he used his Congressional office to help a family-owned business.

It’s exactly what Deal didn’t need in the middle of his battle with Secretary of State Karen Handel for the second slot in the Aug. 10 Republican runoff in the Peach State. State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine is expected to finish first in the July 20 primary.

According to one GOP strategist, Members shouldn’t quit to run for governor. The line won’t be erased from their résumé, and they shouldn’t throw away an opportunity to make news.

In South Carolina, Rep. Gresham Barrett is using his office as a platform to demonstrate his opposition to President Barack Obama and the Democratic agenda. One of Barrett’s television ads points out that the lawmaker is “more opposed to Obama than any Congressman in America, but one.”

Barrett is in the middle of a competitive four-candidate Republican primary set for June 8. He’s competing with state Rep. Nikki Haley and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer for a spot in the June 22 runoff against state Attorney General Henry McMaster, who is likely to finish first in the initial primary.

Rep. Zach Wamp, the eight-term Republican from Tennessee, talks about the Beltway from a distance, offering to meet people at the state line who want to take away guns.

Wamp doesn’t have the benefit of a runoff. He’ll have to knock off Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, the frontrunner in the GOP race, and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey in the Aug. 5 primary.

Rep. Pete Hoekstra appears to be the frontrunner in his race to become governor of Michigan, but there is a long way to go before the Aug. 3 GOP primary. An April 22 Rasmussen Reports survey showed him leading the primary with 28 percent. Wealthy venture capitalist Rick Snyder was second with 14 percent, state Attorney General Mike Cox had 13 percent and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard had 9 percent. The automated survey had a 4.5-point margin of error.

Hoekstra voted in favor of both the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 and the Troubled Asset Relief Program last year — decisions that could haunt him in the campaign.

In all four states (Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Michigan), the primary is critical because the GOP nominee will likely start the general election with a distinct advantage. But while Hoekstra is in a strong position in his primary, Deal, Barrett and Wamp are underdogs.

The Sept. 18 primary is critical in Hawaii, where the Democratic nominee will have the edge in November. Neil Abercrombie decided to resign his House seat earlier this year in order to focus on his gubernatorial bid. He should be able to spend more time on the campaign trail battling Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann instead of traveling the 5,000 miles one way from his district to D.C.

A number of former Members of Congress who have been out of the House for a lot longer than Abercrombie and Deal are also running for governor — with varying likelihoods of winning.

Former Rep. Scott McInnis is running in Colorado and doesn’t have much GOP primary opposition, but he faces a tough general election battle with Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D).

In Ohio, former Rep. John Kasich secured the GOP nomination in last week’s primary, but he faces an extremely competitive race against incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D), who also served in the House. While Democrats will try to use Kasich’s House service against him, they appear to be more excited about the Republican’s subsequent work for Lehman Brothers.

In Wisconsin, former Rep. Mark Neumann (R), who served with Kasich and Strickland in the House, is presenting himself primarily as a small-business man, but he isn’t shying away from his time in Congress.

“People look back at 12 years ago and remember a much different time,” Neumann said in a recent interview. “They remember we balanced the budget and passed tax cuts.”

Neumann’s GOP primary opponent agrees.

“I liked what he did in Congress. I was for it,” Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker said about Neumann’s record in the House. “I’m not going to attack him on it.”

Neumann looks like a slight underdog to Walker in the Sept. 14 primary, with the winner facing Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, a former Democratic Congressman, in the general election.

Other former Members are much longer shots in either the primary or general elections.

Former Rep. Rick Lazio is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination in New York but would face an extremely tough race against state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) in the general election.

In Pennsylvania, former Rep. Joe Hoeffel isn’t even polling in the double digits with the Democratic primary less than a week away.

Four other former Members are running for governor, but their House service is no longer their defining characteristic.

Former Rep. Bill McCollum has spent the past four years as Florida’s attorney general and has a slight advantage over state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D) in this fall’s election. McCollum can’t overlook wealthy health care executive Rick Scott in the GOP primary either.

Former GOP Rep. Bob Ehrlich is running for governor in Maryland, but he was already governor for four years before being defeated for re-election in 2006.

Former Rep. Butch Otter (R) is running for re-election as governor of Idaho, and ex-Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) is running for re-election in Nevada. Otter should be re-elected easily, while Gibbons, who has been battered by personal scandal, will likely lose in either the Republican primary or general election.

This story first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on May 13, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Michigan 1 Moved to Toss-Up

Michigan Cong. Bart Stupak's (D) retirement creates another open seat opportunity for the Republicans. The 1st District is competitive, but in this political climate, Republicans may have the slight edge. Since the seat has been open for all of a few hours, it will take a few weeks for the candidate fields to solidify. For now, we've moved the race to Toss-Up.

We just finished our House Overview, so subscribers to the print edition of The Rothenberg Political Report will get the first look at our ratings changes (in almost four dozen other races) early next week. Stay tuned...

Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 12 D)

• AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
  
• AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D)
• CO 4 (Markey, D)
• IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
• IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D)
• MI 1 (Open; Stupak, D) *
  
• MI 7 (Schauer, D)
• NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
• NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
• NY 29 (Open; Massa, D) Special Election
  
• PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
• TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
• WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 10 D)

• AL 2 (Bright, D)
• FL 8 (Grayson, D)
• ID 1 (Minnick, D)
• KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
• MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
• MS 1 (Childers, D)
• NM 2 (Teague, D)
• OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
• OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
• VA 5 (Perriello, D)

Lean Republican (3 R, 2 D)

• CA 3 (Lungren, R)
• LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
• PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
  
• TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D)
• WA 8 (Reichert, R)
  

Republican Favored (8 R, 0 D)

• CA 44 (Calvert, R)
• CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
• MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
• MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
• NE 2 (Terry, R)
• OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
• OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
• PA 15 (Dent, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 3 D)

• FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
• IL 14 (Foster, D)
• VA 2 (Nye, D)

Lean Democratic (0 R, 10 D)

• HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) Special Election
• IN 9 (Hill, D)
• MO 4 (Skelton, D)
• NV 3 (Titus, D)
• NY 1 (Bishop, D)
• NY 19 (Hall, D)
• NY 23 (Owens, D)
• NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
• SC 5 (Spratt, D)
• WV 1 (Mollohan, D)

Democrat Favored (2 R, 24 D)

• AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
• AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
• CO 3 (Salazar, D)
• CA 11 (McNerney, D)
• CA 47 (Sanchez, D)
• CT 5 (Murphy, D)
  
• DE A-L (Open; Castle, R)
• GA 8 (Marshall, D)
• IA 3 (Boswell, D)
• LA 2 (Cao, R)
• MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D)
  
• NY 13 (McMahon, D)
• NY 20 (Murphy, D)
• NC 8 (Kissell, D)
• ND A-L (Pomeroy, D)
• NJ 3 (Adler, D)
• OH 16 (Boccieri, D)
• OH 18 (Space, D)
• PA 4 (Altmire, D)
• PA 8 (Murphy, D)
• PA 10 (Carney, D)
• PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)
• PA 12 (Open; Murtha, D) Special Election
  
• PA 17 (Holden, D)
• SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)
• TX 17 (Edwards, D)
• VA 9 (Boucher, D)
• WI 8 (Kagen, D)

Total seats in play: 77
Republican seats: 14
Democratic seats: 63

Don’t Hold Your Breath for an Anti-Incumbent Election

By Stuart Rothenberg

Voters are angry, especially at Washington, D.C., and with politicians. They are unhappy with both parties. All that is generally true.

But voters’ dissatisfaction with those in charge doesn’t mean that November is likely to be an “anti-incumbent election.” In fact, it almost certainly won’t. We never, or almost never, have true anti-incumbent elections, as I have noted before.

If Republican incumbents have problems, it will be in their primaries.

In Texas, Gov. Rick Perry looked to have enough momentum to pull away from his GOP primary opponent, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. But that hasn’t happened. The Senator hasn’t been a scintillating candidate, but she is still very much in the game against the governor, according to knowledgeable insiders.

Perry won re-election four years ago with only 39 percent of the vote in a four-way race. While conservatives have rallied behind him, there are many in the Republican Party who don’t like his smugness and his shoot-from-the-hip style.

Arizona’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who became the state’s top officeholder when her predecessor joined the Obama administration, faces a roomful of primary challengers in her bid for a full term, and her prospects are uncertain. She inherited a terrible budget situation and was forced to select from a number of unappealing choices.

Indiana Rep. Dan Burton, South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis and Utah Sen. Bob Bennett also face challenges that have developed to a stage that make them worth watching.

Nonincumbent Republicans who have the mantle of the establishment are also vulnerable given the current environment.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the state’s GOP Senate nomination, is the most obvious example. He faces a very difficult fight against former state Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who is running as the insurgent despite his previous position.

The same dynamic is taking place in New Hampshire, where conservative Ovide Lamontagne and two businessmen could give former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte a migraine in the Republican Senate primary.

And in Kentucky, Rand Paul, son of Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul (a former presidential candidate), is running as an outsider for the Republican Senate nomination against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the favorite of virtually the entire state and the national Republican Party. GOP insiders think Grayson can win the primary, but they are far from certain about the outcome.

But if those incumbents (and establishment-backed nonincumbents) get past their primaries, they will then benefit from the public mood, which currently looks likely to punish Democrats at the ballot box.

A rash of recent polling, much of it paid for by liberal Web sites Daily Kos and Firedoglake, show Democratic incumbents in horrible shape — about where Republicans were in 2006 and 2008.

Surveys over the past couple of weeks have shown former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) ahead of Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) by 8 points, Andy Harris (R) leading Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-Md.) by 13 points, former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) leading Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.) by 10 points and former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) leading Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) by a whopping 17 points.

In addition, Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) leads unknown challenger Randy Altschuler (R) by only 2 points, while controversial Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is drawing 55 percent in an early ballot test against state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D).

Even if only most of these results are close to being accurate, they suggest that other Democratic House incumbents are seeing significant erosion in their numbers from what those same numbers were even a year ago.

Over in the Senate, Democratic numbers are equally terrible.

Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Nevada Sen. Harry Reid are sitting with unfavorable ratings larger than their favorable ratings. Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who would be crushed if this year’s political environment resembled that of the 2006 or 2008 cycle, is running even or ahead of his potential Democratic opponents, and Democratic prospects over the past year have deteriorated in Ohio and Missouri.

Polling in North Carolina is particularly instructive. Recent surveys continue to show roughly equal numbers of respondents approving and disapproving of the job Sen. Richard Burr (R) is doing. But even with those mediocre numbers, Burr is holding clear (if unintimidating) leads over his potential general election opponents.

The bottom line on all of this seems pretty clear: Voters are not enamored of incumbents of either party, and GOP incumbents or “establishment” candidates facing strong “outsider” primary opponents could be in for more rough sledding than they would normally need to expect.

But when the general election rolls around, unless there is a significant change in the national mood, voter dissatisfaction will be aimed overwhelmingly at the candidates of one party. And that is why Democratic insiders are privately raising their own estimates of party losses.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on January 25, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Pennsylvania Senate & Michigan 7

The November 17, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as updated House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of the introduction to this edition:


Pennsylvania Senate: Primarily Focused
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Democrats came up short of a filibuster-proof majority on Election Night 2008, but Sen. Arlen Specter’s party switch in April finally gave them the 60 seats they desired.

The Democratic primary, Specter’s softening numbers among Republicans and Independents, and a shifting national political landscape has turned a virtually safe Democratic seat into a competitive general election contest. Subscribers get the rest of the story in the print edition of the Report.

Michigan 7: Schauer Power
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Mark Schauer is no stranger to winning in competitive districts, but winning reelection next year could be the Democrat’s greatest feat yet.

In a state with deep economic troubles and a competitive gubernatorial race at the top of the ticket, Schauer will have to work hard to hold onto a district with deep conservative and Republican roots.

And Republicans are even more energized after taking over Schauer’s former state senate seat just a couple weeks ago in the heart of the congressional district. Subscribers get the rest of the story in the print edition of the Report.

First Impressions of the ’10 Candidates Making the Rounds

By Stuart Rothenberg

One election cycle blurs into the next one, so it should come as no surprise to anyone that last month I interviewed four candidates who are considering running in 2010.

Republican Adam Kinzinger is looking at Illinois’ 11th district, a seat won in November by freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D), while Michigan Attorney General , Mike Cox (R) is widely mentioned as a possible candidate for governor next year, when Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) is prohibited from running for a third term.

Republican Dean Andal, who lost to Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) in November, seems less certain about running again in 2010 but clearly is keeping his options open. Democrat Bill Hedrick came surprisingly close to pinning a stunning loss on Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), and Hedrick says he already is committed to seeking a rematch.

My first meeting of the year (and the cycle) was with Kinzinger, and to be totally honest, I was dreading it. Another Iraq War veteran running for Congress? Oh, brother. Given the track records of veterans who have nothing else on their résumés, I wasn’t optimistic.

Then I saw Kinzinger. I thought he looked old enough to vote, but I wasn’t sure.

But I shouldn’t have been filled with such dread. Kinzinger may not win a seat in Congress in 2010, but he certainly doesn’t deserve to be kicked to the curb, either.

Kinzinger, 30, is a personable Air Force pilot who was elected to the McLean County Board in 1998 and was re-elected four years later. He resigned from the board during that term when he went on active military duty.

Last cycle, after GOP nominee Tim Baldermann dropped out of the Illinois Congressional race, Kinzinger indicated his interest in replacing Baldermann on the ballot. But party leaders instead chose Marty Ozinga, a multimillionaire businessman whom GOP strategists expected to write a big check to fund his bid. He didn’t, and Halvorson crushed him, 58 percent to 35 percent, in November.

Kinzinger is putting together a campaign team, and he says former Rep. Tom Ewing (R-Ill.) — who represented an adjoining district — is supporting him.

Kinzinger is young, likable and has some political savvy. Of course, he’s a long shot, and a more experienced, well-heeled GOP candidate could eclipse him. But for a first interview, he didn’t do badly.

Cox is a different story. I’d met him before, and I already knew that he was a likable sort who held one of his state’s top elective posts. He’s unquestionably a top-tier hopeful.

Cox is finishing his second term as state attorney general, an office that he first won six years ago when its previous occupant, Granholm, was elected governor. A former assistant prosecutor in Wayne County (Detroit), he faces a potentially crowded multicandidate GOP primary that could include Rep. Pete Hoekstra and Oakland County Executive Brooks Patterson, among others.

Cox, who more than three years ago admitted he had an extramarital affair, raised money for Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) recent presidential bid. He has already retained Public Opinion Strategies’ Neil Newhouse as his pollster.

The conservative Cox definitely looks like a serious contender for the GOP nomination and for the Michigan governorship, given the state’s economic problems and Granholm’s less-than-sterling performance.

Candidate No. 3 was Andal, who drew 45 percent in losing to McNerney in Northern California.

Andal hasn’t decided whether to run again, though it’s clear that he places the blame for his loss on his party. GOP registration in the district shrunk over the past few years, turning a Republican-leaning district into a tossup. Given President Barack Obama’s strength at the top of the ticket last year, Andal got buried.

Andal’s message is clear: The landscape in the district needs to move back toward where it was just a couple of years ago before any Republican will be able to oust McNerney from the seat.

Finally, I met Hedrick, who came within 6,047 votes (and 2 points) of upsetting Calvert. A former classroom teacher who now is president of the local teachers’ association, he spent less than $200,000 to get 48.8 percent of the vote, relying entirely on volunteers and door-to-door grass-roots efforts.

Hedrick is a serious, committed man who is refreshingly candid and displays a surprisingly good understanding of campaigns. He received little or no help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last time, and even potential allies ignored his race. Nobody believed he could defeat Calvert or even get close. That includes me.

The Democrat’s political views on health care, labor union organizing, possible legal action against Bush administration officials for certain policies and other issues aren’t an ideal fit for his district, which still leans Republican even though Obama won it narrowly.

Hedrick is off and running again, and party insiders are, once again, not entirely enthusiastic about his candidacy. That’s understandable given the GOP registration edge in the district, weak fundraising last time and the perception that he came so close only because of the Obama surge.

But Calvert, who was arrested in 1993 for soliciting a prostitute, is a flawed incumbent — he has been under a cloud because of questions about his votes and his real estate investments — and Hedrick or some other Democrat will have two more years to press that case to district voters.

Hedrick remains a long shot, but one who has already surprised observers by getting closer to pulling off a major upset in 2008 than anyone imagined. For that alone, he deserves some respect.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on February 12, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

Bitter Primaries Lead to Cross-Party Endorsements

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Within the broad scope of presidential elections, party defections aren’t all that uncommon. But this cycle, across-the-aisle endorsements have become quite the fad in Congressional contests, with three Republicans supporting Democratic candidates in a trio of high-profile races.

In each case, the endorsements receive plenty of media attention, locally or nationally depending on the race, but their ultimate impact on races remains to be seen.

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell’s endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is the most recent and public example. Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-Conn.) endorsed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president and spoke at the Republican National Convention. Former Iowa Rep. Jim Leach (R) endorsed Obama and spoke at the Democrats’ convention in Denver.

At the Congressional level, bitter primaries seem to be precursor to an elected official from one party crossing over to support a candidate in the other.

On Monday, Republican state Sen. Harri Anne Smith crossed party lines to endorse Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) in Alabama’s extremely competitive open-seat 2nd district race. Smith received 21 percent in the initial six-way primary, but lost the July 15 runoff to state Rep. Jay Love, 53 percent to 47 percent. It’s clear that the tone of the runoff played into her decision.

“I also know firsthand what it’s like to be a victim of his opponent’s reckless and untrue attacks, so I wanted to stand up for [Bright] today,” Smith said, as part of the Democrat’s truck tour. Of course, Bright reciprocated by saying nice things about the woman he almost faced in the general election.

At the end of September, former Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-Mich.) endorsed Democrat Mark Schauer in Michigan’s 7th district. Schauer is challenging Rep. Tim Walberg (R), who defeated Schwarz in the 2006 GOP primary. Schwarz was sort of an accidental Congressman, after winning the 2004 GOP primary with 28 percent when multiple candidates (including Walberg) divided the conservative vote.

Needless to say, Schwarz was bitter after he lost renomination, and specifically mad at the conservative anti-tax group the Club for Growth for their involvement in the race. Schwarz considered a comeback this cycle and was even courted by the Democrats to switch parties, but he ultimately decided against it. But when the club started attacking Schauer, Schwarz got off the sidelines.

“That to me is the straw that broke the camel’s back,” Schwarz told the Associated Press. “I object to political dabblers who stand for nothing other than to create havoc and dabble in a Congressional race where they truly have no interest.”

In Maryland’s 1st district, another moderate Republican lost the primary and is now supporting the Democratic nominee. Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (Md.) garnered just 33 percent in his three-way GOP primary in February, losing to state Sen. Andy Harris.

The primary was personal, and in April Gilchrest’s longtime campaign aide joined the staff of the Democratic nominee, Queen Anne County State’s Attorney Frank Kratovil. So it was no surprise when Gilchrest himself announced his support for Kratovil.

Last year, before the Congressman lost the GOP nomination, Kratovil criticized Gilchrest for a failure of leadership and his lack of effectiveness and results. Now, the Congressman is appearing in a campaign ad for the Democrat.

“I see a man who can carry on with any tiny legacy I might have,” Gilchrest said at a press conference. “I see a man with an independent voice, someone of competence, integrity and courage. Most important, I see a man I trust. That is more important to me than party labels.”

It’s amazing how party labels seem to fade away when voters reject you.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 22, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Michigan 9: State Democrats Try to Use Palin as Wedge

By Nathan L. Gonzales

For the last three years, the predominant Democratic strategy has been to tie every breathing Republican to unpopular President Bush. Now, Michigan Democrats believe coupling the GOP vice presidential nominee, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, with Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) will help them win his seat.

“Knollenberg and Palin — Two Peas in a Pod of Delusion,” read the release from the Michigan Democratic Party on Thursday. The Congressman is locked in a very competitive re-election race against former state Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters (D) in the 9th district.

“Whether it’s supporting unfair trade policies that ship Michigan jobs overseas or thinking Alaska’s proximity to Russia qualifies as foreign policy experience, Knollenberg is out of touch with what will bring the change Michigan needs,” state Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer said. The release also highlights Palin and Knollenberg’s agreement on abortion rights and global warming, claiming that they are “too extreme” for Oakland County.

This appears to be the first time that Democrats have attempted to use Palin as a negative in a Congressional race. Democrats will surely continue to use Bush as an anvil around Republicans’ necks, but thus far, they have not tried to use GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) as an issue.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 9, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Louisiana Senate & Michigan 7

The August 18, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

PUBLISHING NOTE: As our long-time readers are well aware, we alter our publication schedule toward the end of every election year to provide the fullest coverage before Election Day. We are trying to send another issue to the printer before the Democratic convention, and we plan to publish three times each in September and October.

Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...

Louisiana Senate: Lonely Challenger
By Nathan L. Gonzales

It’s not just Republicans’ brightest spot in Senate races, Louisiana is their only shot of winning a Democratic Senate seat this cycle. But it’s not going to be easy ousting Sen. Mary Landrieu (D).

Between the political environment, no Democratic retirements, and South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson’s health problems, Landrieu finds herself as the lone defensive front in the Democratic battle plan on the Senate side.

National Republicans dreamed of Cong. Bobby Jindal (R) taking on Landrieu, but he was just elected governor last fall. Instead, Republicans convinced state Treasurer John Kennedy to switch parties and take on the incumbent.

Kennedy may not be the perfect candidate, but Landrieu has a history of extremely close races. And despite surviving without a serious misstep, Landrieu continues to hover near 50% in a state that Republicans are enjoying some recent success on the heels of Jindal’s win.

This isn’t exactly the first time the two have faced each other. In 1995, Landrieu ran for governor while Kennedy ran the campaign for former Gov. Buddy Roemer (R). The candidates finished less than 9,000 votes apart.

It’s most likely to be another barnburner in the Bayou. Subscribers get the whole story in the print edition.

Michigan 7: Grrrrrreat Race

There are certain conservative members of Congress that Democrats seem to love to hate. Michigan’s Tim Walberg has been in office less than one term, and yet Democrats hold him in low regard and are already targeting his defeat.

Walberg’s 7th Congressional District leans slightly Republican by the numbers, but Democrats are excited about their candidate, state Senate minority leader Mark Schauer, in part because of his demonstrated ability to win in GOP-leaning areas.

Last cycle, Walberg defeated moderate Cong. Joe Schwarz in the GOP primary and fell just short of 50% in the general election against a candidate that spent hardly any money. All of those factors fuel Democratic excitement for taking over this seat in November. Subscribers get the whole story in the print edition.

Will Third-Party Candidates Make the Difference in Top Races?

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Every cycle there is buzz about third-party candidates drawing votes from one candidate and throwing the election to another. This cycle is no different. But not all third-party candidacies are equal.

In Ohio’s 15th district, state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) and Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) are battling for the open seat vacated by Rep. Deborah Pryce (R). Retired state legislative and budget analyst Don Elijah Eckhart is running as an Independent, and is attracting some attention after the Ohio Right to Life endorsed his candidacy.

The situation isn’t a complete surprise, since Eckhart ran for the state Senate four years ago as an Independent against Stivers. Eckhart received the Ohio Right to Life nod in that race too and received 14,509 votes (9 percent), while Stivers cruised to re-election, 58 percent to 34 percent.

Eckhart may draw a few percentage points in GOP-heavy Union and Madison counties, but they comprise only 13 percent of the 15th Congressional district, which is dominated by Franklin County.

“Don knows that big money leads to favoritism and corruption,” according to his Web site. “He is self-funding this campaign to set an example.” On June 30, Eckhart had $370 on hand, after giving his campaign $5,228.40 and raising a couple of hundred dollars from individuals.

Eckhart is “reaching out to Christian voters via ads on Christian radio,” according to a story in Tuesday’s Columbus Dispatch, and “making contact” with 12 churches in Union County. According to his Federal Election Commission filing, Eckhart spent a little more than $2,000 on radio ads through June 30, with the much of the rest of the money going for the Web site and parade candy.

If the margin in this district is 1,062 votes again, as it was in 2006 when Pryce edged Kilroy, then Eckhart could make a difference. But don’t expect him to make a big splash.

In New Jersey, Democrats believe Bridgewater Councilman Michael Hsing’s Independent candidacy will aid state Assemblywoman Linda Stender’s (D) effort in GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson’s open 7th district.

Stender lost narrowly to Ferguson in 2006 and faces state Sen. Leonard Lance (R). Lance survived a crowded and competitive primary on June 3 and finished with only $81,000 in the bank on June 30 after spending more than $400,000. While Lance regrouped, Stender was sitting on $1.2 million and is already airing television ads.

Hsing had $92,000 in the bank on June 30. The registered Republican, who was born and raised in Taiwan, told the local media that he raised most of his $114,000 from the minority community outside the district. He’s only spent $22,000 thus far, since he dropped out of the Republican race early on, claiming that the system was “rigged.”

Again, if the race is extremely close, anything or anyone can be the difference maker. But there is little evidence that Hsing has strong ties within the Republican Party or will have the money to raise his profile in a very expensive Congressional district.

In Michigan’s 9th district, Jack Kevorkian is running as an Independent. Known as “Dr. Death,” Kevorkian announced his candidacy in March and recently filed enough valid signatures to be on the November ballot.

The 80-year-old physician was released from prison in June 2007 after serving eight years for second-degree murder for helping a man die in 1998. Kevorkian is also terminally ill with Hepatitis C.

Kevorkian hasn’t filed with the FEC, meaning he hasn’t raised or spent more than $5,000, but he could still be a factor in the race. According to private polling from the middle of June, Kevorkian is very well known and unpopular, but drawing a significant percentage of the vote.

He’s also drawing a disproportionate number of Democrats, hurting former state Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters’ (D) effort to oust Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R). On July 16, the Congressman showed almost $1.9 million on hand to almost $1.1 million for Peters.

Democrat Michael Jackson’s Independent candidacy in Louisiana’s 6th district could have the greatest electoral impact. The African-American state Representative drew 27 percent against fellow state Rep. Don Cazayoux (and three other Democrats) in the March 8 special primary and 43 percent against Cazayoux in the April 5 runoff.

Cazayoux went on to win the special general election, but his narrow 49 percent to 46 percent margin over a flawed Republican candidate shows that the new Congressman doesn’t have much room for error in a district that is approximately one-third black. Cazayoux faces a more credible Republican challenger this fall.

Even though Jackson is not expected to raise much money, he clearly has an electoral base in the district and could make the difference in the race.


This item first appeared on RollCall.com on July 30, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

The Big 5: Picking the States That Will Pick the President

By Stuart Rothenberg

It’s far too soon to know whether the presidential contest will blow open into a laugher or remain competitive from now until Election Day. But if the race stays close until the end, a mere four or five states are likely to tell you whom the next occupant of the Oval Office will be.

Right now, those states look to be Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada and Michigan.

Let’s be clear: I’m not suggesting that these will be the five closest states. But together these five states will tell a great deal about whether Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has added to the Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Al Gore states, thereby giving him at least 270 electoral votes, or whether Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has either held the 2000 and 2004 George W. Bush Electoral College coalition together or been able to offset one or two losses with a previously Democratic state of his own.

Colorado and Virginia make the list because they are the two states mostly likely to switch to Obama that went for Bush in both 2000 and 2004.

Early polls show Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, ahead in Colorado and running essentially even with McCain, who will be the GOP standard bearer, in the Old Dominion. Of the two, Colorado would seem to be the more likely Democratic opportunity, and it is not easy to imagine Obama winning Virginia while losing Colorado.

Obama’s potential in both states is in the suburbs, with upscale, white voters who are drawn to the Democratic nominee’s message of change. Both states have seen Democratic gains recently — Democrats won the two states’ last Senate races and made gains in each state’s Legislature in 2006.

If Obama fails to carry either state, his arithmetic gets dicey. Even more important, a pair of McCain victories would suggest that the Republican made substantial gains between June and November — a bad sign for Obama nationally.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Ohio is on the short list of key states. Kerry lost the state by 118,601 votes last time, and if he had carried the Buckeye State, he would now be running for re-election.

Republicans have had serious problems in Ohio over the past few years, losing all of the state’s top offices, a Senate seat and a Congressional district. The state’s economic problems have also made it ripe for Obama’s taking in 2008. Indeed, if McCain keeps the state in the GOP column, it would be a sign of the limits of Obama’s appeal — especially with “Reagan Democrats” but more generally with swing voters.

Nevada has proved to be one of the more competitive states over the past few White House contests, so it automatically becomes a bellwether of the 2008 presidential election. Yes, there are plenty of conservatives and Republicans in the state, but Nevada also has its share of Hispanics, labor union members and moderate Democrats.

Bush won Nevada in 2004 with 50.5 percent and in 2000 with 49.5 percent. Bill Clinton carried it twice, albeit narrowly. If Obama wins Nevada, he’s likely winning other red states, and he’s likely to be the next president of the United States.

Finally, Michigan probably is McCain’s best chance of picking off a state that has gone Democratic in the past two presidential contests. That is enough to warrant placing the Wolverine State on this short list of predictive states.

If McCain replicates either of Bush’s winning electoral vote coalitions, he won’t need to worry about Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, each of which went Democratic in both 2000 and 2004. But if Obama carries states that Kerry and Gore lost, McCain will need to swipe a state or two from the Democratic column in order to get to 270 electoral votes.

Of the three Midwest states, Wisconsin’s performance in the past two presidential contests suggests it’s McCain’s best shot. After all, while Gore and Kerry carried the state, their margins — two-tenths of a percent in 2000 and four-tenths of a percent in 2004 — were ridiculously close. Kerry carried the Badger State by 5,708 votes out of almost 2.6 million cast.

Pennsylvania also was a tighter race in each of the past two elections than was Michigan. And, if you believe that trade is a litmus test issue in Michigan — and it may be — then McCain is on the wrong side of the issue.

So it’s hard to argue with the view that Michigan is tougher for the Republican nominee than either of the two other states.

But I’ve picked Michigan because it has something that neither of the other two states has: a weak Democratic governor and a mood of desperation flowing from a decimated economy. The state has been in such serious economic straits for so long — well before the current economic slowdown — that Michigan voters might be willing to try something new, including giving McCain a long look.

So keep an eye on Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada and Michigan as you watch the polls. They’ll give you more information than the national numbers.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on July 17, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.