Some Race Results Matter More Than Others

By Stuart Rothenberg

This year, it’s harder than ever to distinguish what really matters from what doesn’t. Special situations are adding to the confusion, as is a fickle public, which is showing a willingness to change its positions in the blink of an eye.

In Hawaii’s special Congressional election to fill the opening created by the resignation of Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie, Republican Charles Djou certainly looks headed for an upset victory over two Democrats, former Rep. Ed Case, who has already represented the other half of the state in Congress, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who has been described by the local media as “the candidate of the Democratic Party establishment.”

With Djou leading in polls and local Democrats unable to agree to support a single candidate in the election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has announced that it won’t spend any more resources on the race, which it now thinks is unwinnable.

That’s a stunning decision given the Democratic nature of the district, but it reflects the DCCC’s frustration with the race — and particularly with the state’s two Senators, who remain bitter about Case’s 2006 Democratic primary challenge to Sen. Daniel Akaka and have refused to encourage Hanabusa to exit the race.

Since the two Democrats are effectively dividing the Democratic vote and allowing Djou to win with far less than a majority of the vote, the outcome doesn’t say much of anything about November. The outcome isn’t irrelevant, but it certainly isn’t an indicator of things to come.

The special election in Pennsylvania’s 12th district is a far more important event, since it’s a head-to-head contest in a Democratic part of the state. But while Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry won the district narrowly in 2004 and Al Gore carried it more comfortably in 2000, Barack Obama lost it narrowly in 2008.

This is the kind of district where voters could use the special election as an opportunity to send a message of dissatisfaction about the Obama presidency and the Democratic Congressional agenda.

Republican Tim Burns is about as strong a candidate as Republicans could have hoped for. I interviewed him months ago as well as in late April, and I found him to be a more poised and polished candidate than I did during his first visit.

Given the large Democratic registration advantage in the district and the district’s strong support for the late Rep. John Murtha (D), Democrat Mark Critz, who was an aide to Murtha, should have an advantage in the race. A Burns victory would be a bad sign for Democrats for the fall.

Recent events in Utah certainly were noteworthy but not as instructive as the media coverage would suggest.

Nominating conventions are usually dominated by activists and ideologues, and purists at both the state GOP convention and the Democrats’ 3rd district convention showed their muscle, if not their brains.

Republican delegates denied Sen. Bob Bennett even the right to go to a primary to win renomination, and Democrats in the 2nd district forced Rep. Jim Matheson into a primary with a more liberal opponent who criticized the Congressman’s vote against health care reform.

Conventions produce different outcomes than primaries, so the results in Utah say more about the process than the voters. But the results are a reminder that the ideologues are particularly intolerant and vociferous this cycle.

Finally, the dramatic changes in the Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania, the Republican Senate primary in Florida and the GOP gubernatorial primary in California are worth remembering throughout the cycle.

Rep. Joe Sestak’s campaign seemed very much stalled until a single brilliant TV ad jump-started it and changed the Democratic Senate race in Pennsylvania fundamentally. Using video of party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter (D) together with former President George W. Bush, Sestak redefined the choice Democratic primary voters face. Now it is Specter who will need to come from behind.

In Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist went from popular frontrunner in the GOP race to controversial also-ran in the Republican primary to Independent candidate in a matter of months. A year ago, nobody thought that could happen.

Similarly, in California, Republican Meg Whitman built up a large lead in the gubernatorial primary, only to see it largely evaporate when her opponent, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, hit her in a TV ad for her association with Goldman Sachs.

Whitman’s 50-point lead in a March Public Policy Institute of California poll has fallen to 2 points in a recent SurveyUSA poll.

These kinds of reverses ought to make favorites and frontrunners feel uncomfortable, whether Democratic Senators such as Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Michael Bennet in Colorado or Republican Senate hopefuls Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and Sue Lowden in Nevada.

On the other hand, I’m not yet a believer in some races where recent polls show tightening in general election ballot tests, including Senate races in Iowa and North Carolina. That’s because I expect the 2010 midterms ultimately will be a referendum on Democratic control of the White House and Congress, making for a very difficult political environment for Democratic challengers in both states in the fall.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on May 13, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Obama State Directors on Front Lines of 2010

By Nathan L. Gonzales

The men and women who served as state directors for Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign were on the front lines of one of the best-run political operations in recent history.

After Obama’s victory, more than a dozen of them took jobs in the administration. But another group couldn’t stay away from the campaign trail, and they are now at the center of the party’s efforts to retain its Congressional majorities.

“It is important that they stay engaged,” Organizing for America Deputy National Director Jeremy Bird said about the state directors.

“Folks were amazing, some of the best people I’ve ever worked with,” added Bird, who was the Maryland state director for the Obama campaign during the Democratic primary.

A comprehensive look at where the 50 general election state directors are today shows that former Obama operatives have key positions in Democratic efforts to hold control of the Senate in the November midterms. Click here for the chart of all 50 state directors.

In Connecticut, former Obama New Hampshire state director Mindy Myers was recently hired to manage state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal’s (D) campaign for retiring Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D) seat. Obama’s Connecticut state director, Justin Kronholm, is also working with the Blumenthal campaign as director of political operations.

In California, former Obama state director Mike Dorsey is deputy campaign manager for Sen. Barbara Boxer’s (D) re-election campaign. In 2008, Dorsey landed in Montana for the general election, where Obama lost by only 3 points.

In Washington state, Carol Albert managed Sen. Patty Murray’s (D) re-election in 2004, was Obama’s state director in 2008 and is at the helm of Murray’s campaign once again.

And in Colorado, Craig Hughes was a senior adviser to the Obama campaign in the Centennial State and is now managing appointed Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D) tough election bid this year.

Republicans will likely need to win three of those four states to get to a 51-seat majority in the next Congress.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, complete with more Obama campaign veterans, will be there to back up the campaigns in those states, if needed. DSCC field director Rob Hill was Obama’s Oregon state director before moving to Nevada as a senior adviser. (He’s also married to Jarel LaPan, who moved into the Oregon role for the Obama campaign and now works for the administration.) Jackie Bray worked in Ohio during the 2008 general election and is now at the DSCC as well.

After being deeply involved in the Obama campaign and experiencing the organization and enthusiasm firsthand, former state directors are trying to apply 2008’s successful tactics to their 2010 campaigns.

“It’s a reminder of the importance of building a true grass-roots operation,” explained Aaron Pickrell, Obama’s Ohio state director who is managing Gov. Ted Strickland’s (D) re-election bid this year.

Multiple former state directors would speak only on the condition of anonymity for fear of disrupting the rhythm and message of their tough races, but they all agreed that the Obama campaign did a fantastic job fusing the old and the new when it comes to voter contact.

“It’s important to utilize the Internet and new media, not just for communications, but as a field tool and voter contact tool,” said Pickrell, who worked with Bird and Bray in the Buckeye State. But “the most effective campaign is still knocking on doors and neighbor-to-neighbor contact.”

Multiple former state directors also agreed on the necessity of replicating the “buy-in” of the Obama campaign. “If people feel like they have ownership in the campaign, they are more likely to be involved,” Pickrell explained. Democratic campaigns nationwide are hoping to take advantage of the infrastructure from the 2008 campaign and tap in to the larger pool of potential voters and volunteers.

As the state director in Ohio, Pickrell was part of a somewhat exclusive club. Ohio was one of the 18 states targeted by the Obama campaign, and those state directors had a different set of marching orders than the rest. The other targeted states were Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Former Obama campaign operatives are also in key roles on the House side.

New Mexico state director Adrian Saenz is now chief of staff for Rep. Harry Teague, one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country. Moving north, former Florida Campaign for Change field director Angela Botticella is running Rep. Betsy Markey’s (D) campaign in Colorado’s 4th district, also one of the most competitive races this cycle.

While some former state directors, such as Saenz and Pickrell, are using the local expertise to help individual Democrats in 2010, others are using their influence at a broader level.

Former state directors Steve Schale (Florida), Craig Schirmer (Pennsylvania) and others are involved in 2010 races as consultants instead of on official campaign staffs. Former Missouri state director Buffy Wicks (who was one of four regional state directors early in the campaign) moved from the White House Office of Public Engagement to AKPD Message and Media, senior White House adviser David Axelrod’s consulting firm.

Former Virginia state director Mitch Stewart is the head of OFA, which is essentially the Obama campaign embedded within the Democratic National Committee.

The DNC just announced that it plans to invest $50 million into races this year. A chunk of that money includes staffing, field support, data and targeting, and volunteer programs provided by OFA.

While the DNC is focused on 2010, the OFA’s purpose is to keep the president’s supporters engaged to help this year and looking ahead to his re-election.

“Whether it’s 2012 or 20 years from now, the investment we’re putting in now is helpful for the long term,” Bird said.

Tricia Miller, Daniel Newhauser, Jeremy B. White, Kristin Coyner and Zack Hale contributed to this report. This story first appeared in Roll Call on April 27, 2010 and on CQPolitics.com on April 28, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

CA Senate moved to Clear Advantage from Safe

Republicans have to sort out a competitive primary in California, but Sen. Barbara Boxer's (D) poll numbers are less than intimidating. The contest is worth watching because of the building GOP wave. Move from Currently Safe to Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party.

While events between now and November will affect the outlook for November, the GOP seems most likely to net 5-7 Senate seats, with a 8-seat gain certainly possible (but still short of the 10-seat gain the GOP would need for control). That means Democrats are likely to retain control of the Senate, but at a dramatically reduced level.

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

• Lincoln (D-AR)
  
• Reid (D-NV)
  
• ND Open (Dorgan, D)
• DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)

• KY Open (Bunning, R)
  
• MO Open (Bond, R)
• NH Open (Gregg, R)
• OH Open (Voinovich, R)
• IL Open (Burris, D)
• IN Open (Bayh, D)
• Bennet (D-CO)
• Specter (D-PA)
  

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)

• Burr (R-NC)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

• Vitter (R-LA)
  
• FL Open (LeMieux, R)
• Boxer (D-CA) *
  
• CT Open (Dodd, D)
  

Currently Safe (11 R, 8 D)

• Bennett (R-UT)
• Coburn (R-OK)
• Crapo (R-ID)
• DeMint (R-SC)
• Grassley (R-IA)
  
• Isakson (R-GA)
• McCain (R-AZ)
• Murkowski (R-AK)
• Shelby (R-AL)
• Thune (R-SD)
• KS Open (Brownback, R)
• Feingold (D-WI)
• Gillibrand (D-NY)
• Inouye (D-HI)
• Leahy (D-VT)
• Mikulski (D-MD)
• Murray (D-WA)
• Schumer (D-NY)
• Wyden (D-OR)

Plus 10 in the Senate? Republicans Certainly Not There Yet

By Stuart Rothenberg

Having seen victories by Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, the 1994 Republican and 2006 Democratic Congressional sweeps, and Sen. Scott Brown’s (R) recent Massachusetts victory, I’m not inclined to rule out unexpected outcomes — especially nine months before an event.

But the recent explosion of talk of Republicans gaining 10 seats in the Senate is simply premature. Right now, the GOP has an opportunity to net as many as eight Senate seats. That’s a huge number, especially considering that Democrats have 18 seats up this fall, but it is well short of control.

The new political landscape has resulted in an improved environment for the GOP, including the very real possibility that the party can retain all four of its most vulnerable open seats, in Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and New Hampshire.

For the moment, let’s assume the GOP avoids losing any of its own seats.

Republicans have the advantage in four Democratic-held Senate seats — North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas and Nevada. In addition, they are no worse than even money in four others — Indiana, Illinois, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

So, any chance of gaining 10 seats would require Republican candidates to win at least two of the following four states: Connecticut, California, Wisconsin and Washington.

Early polling in Connecticut shows state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal ahead of both former Rep. Rob Simmons and businesswoman Linda McMahon, the two Republicans most likely to be the eventual nominee.

Simmons is a quirky ex-legislator who built a moderate record while representing eastern Connecticut in the House. McMahon is a wealthy, self-funding first-time candidate whose claim to fame and wealth, professional wrestling, is widely seen as crude and violent.

Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D) exit from the race hurt Simmons, whose main argument has been substance and electability. He is now an underdog for the GOP nomination. McMahon’s wealth (she has promised to spend tens of millions of dollars), outsider persona, poise and relatively conservative positioning makes her stronger than Simmons in a primary and potentially more of a threat to Blumenthal.

Still, both Republicans start far behind Blumenthal, in the polls and in handicapping. A four-term statewide officeholder, Blumenthal is a smart Democrat in a Democratic state. He’ll raise plenty of cash and begins with a clear advantage in the race.

In California, voters aren’t particularly enthusiastic about Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). She’s a polarizing political figure and running at or below 50 percent in ballot tests against either Assemblyman Chuck DeVore or businesswoman Carly Fiorina, two of the leading Republicans in the race.

Still, DeVore doesn’t have the breadth of appeal or money to defeat Boxer, while Fiorina has plenty of baggage.

Boxer’s prospects would take a hit, of course, if California Republicans were to nominate former Rep. Tom Campbell, a moderate who would have considerable statewide appeal — if he could accumulate the resources for an expensive statewide race. But Campbell’s past fundraising isn’t encouraging.

For now, Boxer’s weakness does not yet translate into a serious Republican opportunity.

In Wisconsin, some polling has shown Sen. Russ Feingold (D) having trouble in a race against former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). The only problem is that Thompson isn’t now running for the Senate, though he is considering it. And Feingold, who voted against the Troubled Asset Relief Program, is a savvy politician who has developed a reputation for independence.

The main Republican contender currently is Terrence Wall, a prosperous real estate developer who put $300,000 into his campaign but hasn’t paid state taxes in nine of the past 10 years. Democrats apparently have other tax ammunition to use against Wall.

When I interviewed Wall recently, he refused to give his date of birth. He only offered the year of his birth (and his age), apparently because he is concerned about identity theft. Wall, in other words, has a long way to go before he is a serious threat to Feingold, even in a bad year for Democrats.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) is another smart politician, and while Republican insiders hope to recruit someone who can test the Senator, they don’t have a formidable challenger yet. Until they do, there isn’t any reason to see Washington as a GOP takeover opportunity.

Obviously, Sen. Evan Bayh’s (D-Ind.) sudden announcement Monday that he will not seek re-election improves GOP prospects in that state and therefore nationally.

While some polling showed the Democrat at risk, a recent Research 2000 poll for the liberal Web site the Daily Kos showed him leading former Sen. Dan Coats by 20 points. Bayh’s political savvy, strong connection to Hoosier voters and $13 million bank account would have made him a formidable foe for any Republican challenger, so his exit automatically improves GOP prospects, especially given the overall landscape of the election cycle.

Bayh’s retirement puts an eighth Democratic seat at considerable risk, forcing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to be even more on the defensive than it was. But in another sense, it doesn’t change things fundamentally. For even after Bayh’s retirement, a Republican gain of 10 seats is more hype than reality.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on February 16, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

Some House Recruits Have Yet to Measure Up to Hype

By Nathan L. Gonzales

During the election off-year, the House campaign committees spend much of their time recruiting and then promoting their top candidates — like college football teams touting their class of high school prospects before they hit the field. But a year out from Election Day, Democrats and Republicans have highly touted recruits who have either flamed out or are far from living up to the early hype.

Simply put, both parties have candidates looking to get back on track.

This spring, Springfield, Ore., Mayor Sid Leiken was touted as one of a handful of top recruits by the National Republican Congressional Committee. By challenging Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) in the 4th district, Leiken was supposed to be an example of the GOP’s effort to recruit top-notch challengers in districts that haven’t been competitive in recent cycles.

Leiken filed on May 13, but his campaign derailed less than a month later after it came to light that he paid his mother $2,000 for campaign polling to a company that wasn’t registered with the state. Over a number of days the story grew bigger as facts trickled out.

“It’s the difference between an article and a story,” according to a House GOP strategist.

Leiken choked back tears as he admitted to failing to properly document the transaction, and the secretary of state is looking into it. The matter was not insignificant, but it didn’t have to completely disrupt his campaign.

“You have to get good people around these candidates for them to succeed,” according to one GOP consultant who believes Leiken could have weathered the storm with better advice.

Instead of giving DeFazio a run for his money (the incumbent had $583,000 in the bank on Sept. 30), Leiken is facing fundraising troubles on top of everything else. The mayor raised just $52,000 through the end of the third quarter and had a paltry $21,000 in his campaign account at the end of September.

According to one GOP source, Leiken is making some changes in his campaign, but it may be too late to change the narrative of the race. For now, he may not even be Republicans’ hottest race in Oregon, with strategists becoming more excited about their prospects in the 5th and even 1st districts.

Across the country in Florida, a once-hot Democratic candidate is having trouble living up to early expectations as well.

For years, Democrats have believed that Rep. Bill Young (R) is close to retiring in Florida’s 10th district. Growing impatient because the former Appropriations chairman continues to seek re-election, this cycle Democrats recruited state Sen. Charlie Justice (D) into the race to see if they could smoke Young out. But Justice’s early fundraising has been mediocre, and Democrats are a long way from scaring Young into retirement.

Justice filed on April 24, raised $86,000 his first quarter of fundraising and $77,000 in his second. Those are less than spectacular numbers for a star recruit. He ended September with $101,000 in the bank, but Young had four times that amount.

“He needs to put in the work to build his operation and make sure he has the money to compete,” admitted one House Democratic strategist. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), who is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s vice chairwoman for incumbent retention this cycle, has been assigned to Justice to help jump-start his campaign.

The jury is still out on several other notable early recruits.

Republicans believe Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta will mount a strong challenge against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in New Hampshire’s 1st district. Guinta got into the race early and drew fire from Democrats after being at a bar when a brawl broke out and failing to call the police.

Democrats believe the mayor’s candidacy was derailed by the incident and highlight the fact that he only raised $126,000 in the third quarter. But Republicans point out that Guinta’s total was only slightly behind Shea-Porter’s $141,000 raised for the quarter and that he ended September only about $100,000 behind the incumbent in cash on hand.

Along with Leiken, California Assemblyman Van Tran (R) was part of a recruiting class built to expand the GOP playing field by challenging Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.).

And like Guinta, Democrats believe Tran’s candidacy has stalled after he raised $92,000 in the third quarter. But after raising a whopping $254,000 from mid-May to June, Tran was going to have difficulty keeping up. After tapping friends and family for contributions, a candidate’s second quarter of fundraising is thought to be considerably more difficult.

Tran had $283,000 in the bank on Sept. 30 compared with $769,000 for Sanchez.

When trouble begins to surface for candidates, early detection is critical.

“Now it’s an identified problem, and we can sit down and try and solve it,” according to one GOP strategist, who would rather advise a candidate after a poor fundraising quarter in the off-year than later next year after resources are invested. “We’re not trying to be ‘survival of the fittest.’ We’re trying to build something.”

Republicans joke that at least their alleged flameouts are raising more money than the Democrats.

Polk County Supervisor of Elections Lori Edwards was supposed to give Democrats a chance at competing for the 12th district seat that Rep. Adam Putnam (R) is vacating in Florida.

She filed on March 2, put together $101,000 through June but raised just $39,000 from July through September and had only $77,000 on hand on Sept. 30. Her likely GOP opponent, former state Rep. Dennis Ross (R), was sitting on $255,000 at the same point.

Similarly, Democrats believe state Rep. Todd Book (D) is their best possible challenger to Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) in Ohio’s 2nd district. But he comes from the least populated portion of the district and raised $64,000 in his first two months in the race, ending September with less than $45,000 in the bank. His opponent in the Democratic primary, David Krikorian, had a head start and showed $115,000 in cash on hand, while Schmidt had $235,000 in the bank.

Schmidt will never be completely safe and Book has time to get on track, but he’s not off to a roaring start. When candidates come up short in fundraising, it’s distressing because that’s all they should be doing at this point, according to one Democratic strategist.

But in the end, even an imperfect challenger could get significant support from their party’s national campaign committee if the race is ultimately deemed as a winnable opportunity.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on October 29, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: New York 23 & California 45

The August 21, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of introduction to this edition:

N.Y. 23: Democrats Flying High Again?
By Nathan L. Gonzales

It’s déjà vu all over again in Upstate New York. Less than six months after Democrats held onto the 20th District in a special election when Kirsten Gillibrand (D) left for the Senate, the neighboring 23rd District seat is set to become vacant.

President Obama reached across the aisle to nominate Cong. John McHugh (R) to be Secretary of Army conveniently leaving his congressional seat open and ripe for Democratic picking. Democrats successfully defended Gillibrand’s seat and are now on the offensive in what is arguably a more Democratic district.

Democratic strategists are practically Xeroxing their playbook from the 20th C.D. race in an effort to replicate the magic. They nominated attorney Bill Owens, a registered Independent, and utter the phrase “created jobs” at every opportunity. Republicans are looking to moderate state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava to keep the seat in GOP hands. She has broader appeal than the GOP candidate in the 20th, but she can’t afford to lose too many voters to Republican Doug Hoffman, who is running on the Conservative Party line. Subscribers get the whole story in the print edition.

California 45: It Never Rains in Southern California

After winning over 50 congressional seats over the past two cycles, Democratic targets are harder to come by these days. But after Barack Obama’s dominating performance in California and overall voter registration efforts, Democrats believe Cong. Mary Bono Mack is one of handful of vulnerable Republican incumbents in the Golden State.

Even though Bono Mack has coasted to reelection in the face of two Democratic waves, Democrats believe Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet is the well-financed challenger that can defeat the congresswoman. Subscribers get the whole story in the print edition.

Big States Set to Host Hottest Contests Next Year

By Nathan L. Gonzales

It is impossible to predict what the national political environment will be next year, but a handful of battleground states are guaranteed to be a hotbed of activity.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, California and New York have the most overlap in terms of competitive elections on the state and federal levels. All of the states are relatively large, and the gubernatorial and Senate races there are expected to be very expensive.

The following are the top five states that appear to be the political epicenter of the 2010 elections.

1. Ohio

Up and down the ballot, the Buckeye State is shaping up to be the hottest battleground in the country. Gov. Ted Strickland (D) is running for re-election in difficult economic times. Strickland’s race against Fox News Channel host John Kasich (R), an ex-Congressman, could be a bellwether for whether voters blame the governor and the Democrats for the economic hardship or continue to blame Republicans and former President George W. Bush.

Republicans are playing offense in the gubernatorial race, but the party has to defend the seat of retiring Sen. George Voinovich. Democrats like their chances against former Rep. Rob Portman, the likely GOP nominee, because he worked in the Bush administration. But first, Democrats have to sort out their primary between Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.

On the Congressional level, Republicans are hoping to take back the 1st and 15th districts, represented by freshman Reps. Steve Driehaus (D) and Mary Jo Kilroy (D). Former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) and state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) are seeking to avenge their losses last cycle. Democrats will take their biennial shot at trying to defeat Rep. Jean Schmidt (R), and Republicans will try to finally land a top recruit against Rep. Zack Space (D), but both races start as long shots for each party.

In addition, Ohio’s other statewide offices are up for election and competitive. Winning those may prove to be the most critical for each party because the state’s redistricting commission — made up of the governor, auditor, secretary of state and one member of each party from the legislature — will draw new state Legislative district lines after 2010.

2. Pennsylvania

Over the past four years, Republicans have lost both Senate seats and five House seats in the Keystone State. But history is on their side as they seek to win back the governorship in 2010.

Republicans lost the second Senate seat recently when Sen. Arlen Specter defected to the Democratic Party. It looks like he’ll face Rep. Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary. But regardless of who wins that battle, the Democratic nominee will start with the advantage over former Rep. Pat Toomey, the likely Republican nominee in a state that is growing more Democratic.

The outlook is brighter for Republicans in the gubernatorial race since voters have put the out-of-power party in control every eight years since World War II. The fields are still fluid, but Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, state Auditor General Jack Wagner and wealthy businessman Tom Knox are battling on the Democratic side, while Attorney General Tom Corbett and former U.S. attorney Pat Meehan are jockeying on the Republican side.

Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) is exploring a gubernatorial bid as well. If he leaves the House, Republicans will have a difficult time holding his 6th district seat. Republicans will also take a look at the 7th district, if Sestak runs for Senate, and try to oust Rep. Christopher Carney in the 10th district, Rep. Jason Altmire in the 4th district and Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper in the 3rd district — although it’s far from certain that those races will be competitive.

3. Florida

Gov. Charlie Crist’s (R) decision to run for Senate dramatically increased the GOP’s chances of holding the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez, but it put the governorship at significant risk. Crist faces former Speaker Marco Rubio in the GOP primary and will likely face Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) in the general election — although Rep. Corrine Brown (D) has recently said she is exploring the race.

But Crist remains popular, despite the state’s sour economic conditions, and at this point he’s viewed as the frontrunner.

With Crist’s absence, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink is the early favorite to win the governorship for Democrats. State Attorney General Bill McCollum is the likely GOP nominee, but some Republicans worry about his ability to win given his unsuccessful bids for Senate in 2000 and 2004 (when he lost the primary to Martinez).

On the Congressional level, Democrats are once again targeting the 10th district seat held by Rep. Bill Young (R), where they believe state Sen. Charlie Justice (D) can win regardless of whether Young retires. Democratic party strategists also believe they have an opportunity to make the open-seat 12th district race competitive, but time will tell whether they are right.

Republicans are excited about knocking off freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D) in the 8th district. Their prospects are decidedly uphill against Reps. Suzanne Kosmas (D) and Ron Klein (D).

4. California

Democrats have gained 53 seats in the House over the past four years, but only one in California. But after a strong performance by President Barack Obama, a surge in Democratic voter registration and the collapsing numbers of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), Democrats are on offense.

Targeting more than a handful of Congressional seats, Democrats’ best opportunities appear to be against GOP Reps. Ken Calvert, Dan Lungren and Mary Bono Mack. Republicans believe state Assemblyman Van Tran (R) can be competitive against Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) in the 47th district.

Democrats’ best opportunity of all is likely in the gubernatorial race, where they’re banking on voter fatigue toward Republicans after seven years of “the governator.” The Democratic primary field got slightly less complicated when Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) announced he wasn’t running, but the nominee will likely be former governor and state attorney General Jerry Brown or San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner are vying for the Republican nod.

And while it’s not expected to be close, Republicans are hoping to woo former Hewlett Packard executive Carly Fiorina (R) into running against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), who has never won a Senate race with more than 60 percent of the vote.

5. New York

If Gov. David Paterson runs for re-election and is the Democratic nominee, Republicans actually have a chance of taking back the Empire State’s governorship, even if their nominee is former Rep. Rick Lazio (R).

But if state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) changes course and decides to run, polls show he could coast to the nomination and into the governor’s mansion — though most Democratic insiders do not see a Paterson-Cuomo primary taking place. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is probably the Republicans’ best hope, but he’s only likely to run if it looks like Paterson will be the nominee.

Republicans are down to holding just three House seats in the 29-Member delegation. And they are at significant risk of losing Rep. John McHugh’s (R) 23rd district in a special election now that he has agreed to serve in the Obama administration. Prior to the 2006 elections, Republicans held nine seats.

But Republicans are trying to crawl back by targeting a handful of seats in an effort to regain relevance in the Northeast. They are hoping competitive races develop in the districts represented by Democratic Reps. Eric Massa, Michael Arcuri, John Hall and Scott Murphy, who just won the 20th district special election.

Depending on how Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s likely Democratic primary against Rep. Carolyn Maloney plays out and the Republicans’ ability to get a recruit with statewide viability, Democrats are in good position to hold both Senate seats.

Although former Gov. George Pataki (R) and Rep. Peter King (R) say they’re considering the possibility of running for Gillibrand’s seat, neither is expected to do so. Senior Sen. Charles Schumer (D) is safe.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on June 29, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Alabama 2 & California 44

The June 12, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of introduction to this edition:


Alabama 2: All Is Calm, All is Bright
By Nathan L. Gonzales

When Bobby Bright decided to run for Congress, many people weren’t sure which party he was in. The former mayor of Montgomery went on to win last fall as a Democrat, but he’d prefer you forget that last part.

Bright’s victory encapsulated many of the problems Republicans faced over the last two election cycles. GOP Rep. Terry Everett retired, leaving Republicans with yet another open seat to defend. Democrats did a good job of recruiting Bright, a moderate Democrat who fit the district well. Republicans suffered through a bitter primary and runoff. And Barack Obama’s candidacy energized a sizable African-American electorate.

But Obama barely topped one-third of the vote in Alabama’s 2nd District, and Bright won by less than a point, making him a top Republican target in the 2010 midterms.

Republicans are excited about Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby’s candidacy, but hope to avoid another messy primary above all else. Meanwhile, Bright will test whether personal relationships trump partisanship. Subscribers get the full story in the print edition of the Report.


California 44: Showcase Showdown
By Nathan L. Gonzales

With the Democratic wave crashing all across the country, few people were watching as GOP Cong. Ken Calvert was nearly swept out of office as well. But after his close call last cycle, all eyes are on Southern California to see if the 44th District is Democrats’ top opportunity or merely a missed opportunity.

Democrats in Washington didn’t pay a lot of attention to educator Bill Hedrick last cycle because he didn’t raise much money and didn’t put together what is normally considered to be a credible campaign. Nevertheless, Hedrick came within two points of knocking off the incumbent.

Hedrick is running again and the DCCC is working closely with him to take his campaign to the next level. But the Democrat won’t sneak up on Calvert this time.

California is an increasing source of concern for Republicans, who aren’t sure if they’ve reached the electoral floor. And before Calvert can focus on his Democratic opponent, he must fend off a primary challenge and answer to some Republicans who are dissatisfied with his personal life and voting record. Subscribers get the full story in the print edition of the Report.

Another Election Cycle, Another Couple of Polls to Consider

By Stuart Rothenberg

For some reason, campaign managers and press secretaries never tire of distributing press releases and campaign polls that they apparently assume will be taken at face value and regurgitated by political observers.

We’re six months into the 2010 election cycle, and I have already received a pair of press releases about polls that set off alarms, though for very different reasons.

One of the press releases that I received came from the campaign of Texas Senate hopeful Florence Shapiro, a Republican state Senator.

Shapiro is running for the seat held by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), who may resign her Senate seat in order to focus on her quest for the GOP gubernatorial nomination next year.

The mid-April press release crows that “Shapiro has highest name ID among announced GOP candidates,” which is a little like saying that Shapiro has the highest favorability ratings when her immediate family was surveyed.

The poll was conducted from March 30 to April 1 by Global Strategy Group, a Democratic firm not in any way connected with Shapiro’s Senate bid. The sample included 603 voters likely to participate in a special election.

The Shapiro campaign’s release cited the Democratic survey and proclaimed that the state Senator’s name identification is more than twice the ID of the “next best known Republican currently running or exploring a campaign for U.S. Senate” and that she “enjoys a +8% net favorability rating,” which is “higher than any other Republican candidate who has taken public steps toward a Senate run.”

The only problem is that none of the other three Republicans who “have taken steps toward a Senate run” — former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams and state Railroad Commissioners Elizabeth Ames Jones and Michael Williams — is regarded as among the frontrunners in the race, once the field eventually forms.

Most Texas observers expect either Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst or Attorney General Greg Abbott to enter the Senate race if and when Hutchison’s seat becomes vacant.

The Global Strategy Group poll did include Dewhurst in its questionnaire, and the results showed more than twice as many voters familiar with Dewhurst’s name than with Shapiro’s. Dewhurst’s net favorable rating was three times Shapiro’s. Abbott apparently was not tested in the survey.

Shapiro’s press release conveniently left out the Dewhurst numbers, since they weren’t flattering to the state Senator.

The Shapiro press release’s focus on the candidate’s “net favorability rating” advantage over the other announced candidates is also misleading, since it is a net +8 while the largely unknown Jones’ is a statistically identical +5, even though her total name ID is just 8 percent.

The Shapiro release, and the claims contained in it, makes the entire campaign look amateurish.

The other poll and press release comes from the campaign of Congressional hopeful John Garamendi (D), who is running in the expected special election in California’s 10th district, assuming Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) is confirmed to a State Department post.

As far as I can tell, there is nothing wrong with the survey of 400 likely special election voters conducted in early May by JMM Research for Garamendi, or with the polling memo written by Jim Moore. It’s the breathless press release that accompanied the polling memo and the implication that Garamendi has a huge advantage in the contest.

The reason that Garamendi, the state’s lieutenant governor, leads the race now is that he has been on the ballot frequently for the past 30 years. In fact, Garamendi was on the ballot in California in every even-numbered year between 1974 and 1994, with the exception of 1978 and 1992 (when his wife ran unsuccessfully for a seat in Congress).

He has run for state Assembly, state Senate, state insurance commissioner, state controller, lieutenant governor and governor. Shortly before he released his Congressional poll, he was running in a different race — for governor.

Of course, name ID is important, and Garamendi’s name identification advantage certainly is worth noting. But name ID at the end of a campaign is much more important than before the race has even begun.

And Garamendi’s 11-point advantage over the second-place finisher in the hypothetical ballot test isn’t all that substantial given his name identification advantage.

The sitting lieutenant governor has a name ID of 80 percent but is drawing only 24 percent on the hypothetical Congressional ballot. That means that a large chunk of voters who say they have heard of Garamendi aren’t automatically drawn to him.

The Garamendi folks might also take a moment to consider what happened to Jim Tedisco, a well-known New York Republican state legislator who had been in politics for years. He held an early special election lead over an unknown Democratic opponent — who got known quickly once he went on TV and who overtook the longtime legislator when all the votes were counted.

Garamendi certainly is a very serious contender for this seat. It’s fair to call him the frontrunner. He’s been in politics far longer than his opponents, and that has given him name ID and connections. But the early poll is of limited predictive value, and the lieutenant governor’s campaign staffers might want to note that political longevity isn’t what it was once cracked up to be. Just ask President Barack Obama.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on May 14, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: California 10 & Mississippi 1

The May 4, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of this edition:

California 10: Waiting for Tauscher
By Nathan L. Gonzales

A handful of Northern California Democrats are praying that Cong. Ellen Tauscher (D) paid her taxes on time.

President Barack Obama nominated the moderate congresswoman to be undersecretary of arms control and international security at the State Department. And while she has yet to be confirmed, the lack of a vacancy in California’s 10th District hasn’t stopped candidates from running to replace her.

State Sen. Mark DeSaulnier (D) is in, and has Tauscher’s blessing. But newly-elected state Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan (D) is running as well, and just to make things more interesting, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) is switching from the gubernatorial race to the congressional contest.

In another time (when Republicans’ popularity wasn’t in the tank) and in another place (before redistricting), California 10 was a competitive seat. But in the current environment, Republicans will be hard-pressed to challenge in this special election. For the full story, you must subscribe to the print edition of the Report.


Mississippi 1: Returning to Form?
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Winning has consequences. After winning 53 seats in the House over the last four years, Democrats find themselves defending a number of Republican-leaning seats, including Mississippi’s 1st District.

Democrat Travis Childers was first elected in a 2008 special election, taking over a GOP seat and providing another clue that the electoral bath of 2006 was not over for the Republicans. Luckily for Childers, Democrats have a large enough majority in the House that they can afford to lose his vote and still pass significant legislation.

Republicans will be combing through Childers’ voting record and looking to couple him with a national Democratic Party that is far more liberal than his district. Republicans are also anxious to avoid a divisive primary, such as the one they experienced in last year’s special election, and keep their sights on winning back the seat. For the full story, you must subscribe to the print edition of the Report.

New Print Edition: California 32 & Florida 8

The March 20, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of this edition:

California 32: Race Matters?
By Nathan L. Gonzales

When President Barack Obama plucked Cong. Hilda Solis (D) from the House for his cabinet, he left Democrats with an open seat to defend. But unlike the special election in upstate New York, Democrats are in no danger of losing this Southern California seat.

State Sen. Gil Cedillo (D) and Board of Equalization Chairman Judy Chu (D) are battling to replace Solis in the 32nd Congressional District, even if other candidates join the race before the filing deadline.

Chu represented a large chunk of the district in the state Assembly and now on the Equalization Board. But in a district where ethnicity still matters, she’s Asian-American in a majority Hispanic district. That’s a big reason why Cedillo has a significant opportunity in the race, even though he doesn’t live in or represent any of the district.

After Solis officially resigned on February 24, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) set a May 19 all-party primary. If no candidate gets over 50%, then the top Republican and Democratic vote-getters will face off on July 14. But the Democratic nominee will be the prohibitive favorite. Subscribers get the entire story in the print edition of the Report.

Florida 8: Magical World of Politics
By Nathan L. Gonzales

It was bad enough last fall for Republicans to lose another 21 House seats, but they even lost Disney World. Now, GOPers are hoping out-spoken freshman Cong. Alan Grayson (D) will help make their dreams of taking back Florida’s 8th District come true by saying something outlandish.

Grayson couldn’t get out of the primary in 2006, but spent millions of his own money last cycle to secure the nomination and knock off four-term Cong. Ric Keller (R). Some GOP strategists saw the writing on the wall after a flawed challenger received 47% against Keller in the GOP primary. The Democratic attorney used his personal resources to exploit Keller’s weaknesses and rode the Barack Obama wave into office.

Republicans don’t yet have an announced, credible candidate for 2010, but will look to former state House Speaker Dan Webster or Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty. There is little doubt they’ll compete in the Orlando-area district that is proving to be very competitive at multiple levels.

Much of the attention on Florida last cycle was on the presidential race or Cong. Tom Feeney’s (R) ethical troubles in the neighboring 24th district, and not Keller’s race. This time around, it’s the 8th District that could be one of the most talked about House races this cycle. Subscribers get the entire story in the print edition of the Report.

First Impressions of the ’10 Candidates Making the Rounds

By Stuart Rothenberg

One election cycle blurs into the next one, so it should come as no surprise to anyone that last month I interviewed four candidates who are considering running in 2010.

Republican Adam Kinzinger is looking at Illinois’ 11th district, a seat won in November by freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D), while Michigan Attorney General , Mike Cox (R) is widely mentioned as a possible candidate for governor next year, when Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) is prohibited from running for a third term.

Republican Dean Andal, who lost to Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) in November, seems less certain about running again in 2010 but clearly is keeping his options open. Democrat Bill Hedrick came surprisingly close to pinning a stunning loss on Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), and Hedrick says he already is committed to seeking a rematch.

My first meeting of the year (and the cycle) was with Kinzinger, and to be totally honest, I was dreading it. Another Iraq War veteran running for Congress? Oh, brother. Given the track records of veterans who have nothing else on their résumés, I wasn’t optimistic.

Then I saw Kinzinger. I thought he looked old enough to vote, but I wasn’t sure.

But I shouldn’t have been filled with such dread. Kinzinger may not win a seat in Congress in 2010, but he certainly doesn’t deserve to be kicked to the curb, either.

Kinzinger, 30, is a personable Air Force pilot who was elected to the McLean County Board in 1998 and was re-elected four years later. He resigned from the board during that term when he went on active military duty.

Last cycle, after GOP nominee Tim Baldermann dropped out of the Illinois Congressional race, Kinzinger indicated his interest in replacing Baldermann on the ballot. But party leaders instead chose Marty Ozinga, a multimillionaire businessman whom GOP strategists expected to write a big check to fund his bid. He didn’t, and Halvorson crushed him, 58 percent to 35 percent, in November.

Kinzinger is putting together a campaign team, and he says former Rep. Tom Ewing (R-Ill.) — who represented an adjoining district — is supporting him.

Kinzinger is young, likable and has some political savvy. Of course, he’s a long shot, and a more experienced, well-heeled GOP candidate could eclipse him. But for a first interview, he didn’t do badly.

Cox is a different story. I’d met him before, and I already knew that he was a likable sort who held one of his state’s top elective posts. He’s unquestionably a top-tier hopeful.

Cox is finishing his second term as state attorney general, an office that he first won six years ago when its previous occupant, Granholm, was elected governor. A former assistant prosecutor in Wayne County (Detroit), he faces a potentially crowded multicandidate GOP primary that could include Rep. Pete Hoekstra and Oakland County Executive Brooks Patterson, among others.

Cox, who more than three years ago admitted he had an extramarital affair, raised money for Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) recent presidential bid. He has already retained Public Opinion Strategies’ Neil Newhouse as his pollster.

The conservative Cox definitely looks like a serious contender for the GOP nomination and for the Michigan governorship, given the state’s economic problems and Granholm’s less-than-sterling performance.

Candidate No. 3 was Andal, who drew 45 percent in losing to McNerney in Northern California.

Andal hasn’t decided whether to run again, though it’s clear that he places the blame for his loss on his party. GOP registration in the district shrunk over the past few years, turning a Republican-leaning district into a tossup. Given President Barack Obama’s strength at the top of the ticket last year, Andal got buried.

Andal’s message is clear: The landscape in the district needs to move back toward where it was just a couple of years ago before any Republican will be able to oust McNerney from the seat.

Finally, I met Hedrick, who came within 6,047 votes (and 2 points) of upsetting Calvert. A former classroom teacher who now is president of the local teachers’ association, he spent less than $200,000 to get 48.8 percent of the vote, relying entirely on volunteers and door-to-door grass-roots efforts.

Hedrick is a serious, committed man who is refreshingly candid and displays a surprisingly good understanding of campaigns. He received little or no help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last time, and even potential allies ignored his race. Nobody believed he could defeat Calvert or even get close. That includes me.

The Democrat’s political views on health care, labor union organizing, possible legal action against Bush administration officials for certain policies and other issues aren’t an ideal fit for his district, which still leans Republican even though Obama won it narrowly.

Hedrick is off and running again, and party insiders are, once again, not entirely enthusiastic about his candidacy. That’s understandable given the GOP registration edge in the district, weak fundraising last time and the perception that he came so close only because of the Obama surge.

But Calvert, who was arrested in 1993 for soliciting a prostitute, is a flawed incumbent — he has been under a cloud because of questions about his votes and his real estate investments — and Hedrick or some other Democrat will have two more years to press that case to district voters.

Hedrick remains a long shot, but one who has already surprised observers by getting closer to pulling off a major upset in 2008 than anyone imagined. For that alone, he deserves some respect.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on February 12, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

California 44: Hedrick Readies Rematch

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Democrat Bill Hedrick came close to becoming one of the surprise winners of the 2008 Election, when the president of the Rialto Education Association lost to Republican Cong. Ken Calvert 51%-49% in California’s 44th District.

He was severely outspent by the incumbent, approximately $1.1 million to $180,000, received no help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and his candidacy was nowhere near the national discussion of potential Democratic takeovers across the country.

Hedrick told the Report in an interview on Thursday that he has no interest in becoming a perennial candidate, but is committed to running again in 2010. And he’s making his case to potential donors and supporters who ignored him last cycle.BillHedrickforCongress2010Packet

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Even in a Wave, Some Get Just What They Deserve

By Stuart Rothenberg

It isn’t easy being a candidate for Congress. It takes an unnatural amount of time and effort to put together a winning campaign, and even then, circumstances can conspire against a candidate who does everything right.

But being a confident candidate, even one with a credible campaign, doesn’t justify absurd claims and press releases. Some campaigns simply are in denial when it comes to what is important or what is possible, and it is those campaigns that drive me crazy.

Wealthy Democrat Jim Harlan was convinced he could beat Republican Rep. Steve Scalise in Louisiana’s 1st district, even though the district is the state’s most educated, most affluent and most Republican. George W. Bush drew a stunning 71 percent in the district in 2004, an even stronger showing than he had in Wyoming.

Harlan put more than $1.2 million from his own pocket into the race, and his campaign directed some of the most ridiculous attacks of the cycle against his opponent. For example, the Harlan campaign criticized Scalise for misleading voters by claiming he had a 100 percent voting record, even though he did have a perfect attendance record. “Scalise actually missed 1,453 votes in the 110th Congress before taking the seat in May,” charged a bizarre Harlan press release.

In the end, while Harlan’s campaign bragged about being added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program and touted a late September Kitchens Group poll showing Scalise with an 11-point lead, the Democratic challenger drew an embarrassing 34 percent of the vote, losing by 32 points. He never had a chance, but his campaign acted as if a win was likely.

Then there was Steve Greenberg, a Chicago- area Republican who promised that he would beat moderate Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean in Illinois’ 8th district. Greenberg got plenty of ink for being a one-time professional hockey player, and his family’s wealth was supposed to assure that he’d batter Bean with enough TV spots to win in the Republican-leaning suburban district. He was one of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s early hot recruits.

But if Greenberg ran a quality campaign, it must have been in a parallel universe where everything is opposite from this one. While Bean raised $3 million for her re-election effort, Greenberg didn’t even reach $1 million, and he put only $156,000 of his own money into a race that quickly turned from potentially competitive to a yawner.

Unlike Greenberg, New Jersey Democrat Dennis Shulman didn’t give up. Shulman, a blind rabbi and psychologist, acted as if articles about him and his candidacy in Time magazine and the New Yorker, as well as an endorsement from the mayor of New York City, made him a celebrity and a serious threat to incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Garrett. They didn’t. Most people in his district don’t read those magazines or care what Michael Bloomberg thinks.

Garrett’s district strongly leans Republican, and Bush won it with 57 percent in 2004, running more than 11 points ahead of his statewide total. Credible Republican statewide candidates always carry the district even if they are getting pounded statewide.

Despite all the self-generated hype and over-the-top campaign rhetoric, Shulman drew 42 percent against Garrett — almost 2 points worse than Paul Aronsohn (D) did two years earlier and only 1,300 votes more than 2004 Democratic nominee Anne Wolfe did.

Then there is Republican John Stone, a conservative activist and former Congressional staffer, who got slightly more than one-third of the vote in Georgia’s 12th district and blamed his loss to incumbent Rep. John Barrow (D) on the NRCC.

Stone’s own fundraising stunk, and he had no chance in the current environment to win in a 45 percent African-American district that was carried by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) four years ago. But that didn’t stop him from trying to avoid responsibility for his own failure.

The case of Indiana hopeful Mike Montagano (D) is in a class all by itself. Like a few other allegedly serious hopefuls I’ve met over the years, he was short on credentials and maturity. Even worse, he either couldn’t or wouldn’t take positions on issues.

Montagano, who received considerable financial help from his father, clearly was in over his head in this race, and his ability to win 40 percent of the vote says something about incumbent Rep. Mark Souder’s limited appeal and district voters’ willingness to vote for any Democrat on the ballot.

Finally, we have the case of Nick Leibham (D), a young, appealing challenger to incumbent Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.) in a district that seems to have a ceiling for Democrats in competitive federal races that is below 50 percent, no matter the circumstances.

Leibham assured us that he was the guy to knock off Bilbray, even though Kerry drew 44 percent in the district and Francine Busby drew 45 percent and 43 percent in the ’06 special and ’06 general election, respectively.

The special election should have been a particularly good opportunity for Democrats in the district, since the seat was left open following Republican Rep. Duke Cunningham’s resignation, plea bargain and incarceration. But after a spirited campaign against a Republican who had been a lobbyist and in an environment when Republicans around the country were in terror, Bilbray beat Busby by 7,200 votes (4.6 points).

This year, Leibham drew 45 percent against Bilbray, just what Busby did in that special.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on November 17, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

GOP May Target Mahoney Media Firm in Other Districts

By Nathan L. Gonzales

With Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) embroiled in an alleged sex scandal, Republicans are putting on the full-court press to broaden the scandal to other districts by implicating House Democratic leadership — and, potentially, Mahoney’s former media firm.

According to the initial ABC News report, Mahoney allegedly promised his mistress a $50,000-a-year job with his media consultant’s firm, Fletcher Rowley Chao Riddle Inc., as part of a package to keep her from going public about their affair.

”This firm is attempting to disassociate itself from its seemingly unethical and potentially illegal behavior because they realize that many of their clients are sitting in targeted districts,” according to one GOP operative, “This is a liability that will undoubtedly be explored."

The Nashville-based FRCR received plenty of good press earlier this year by helping Democrat Travis Childers win the special election in Mississippi’s 1st district. Childers is at limited risk of losing his seat next month, but some of the firm’s other candidates are in much more competitive races.

FRCR works with Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) who knocked off then-Rep. Richard Pombo (R) in 2006 and faces Dean Andal (R) this cycle, as well as teacher Larry Kissell (D), who is in a rematch with Rep. Robin Hayes (R) in North Carolina’s 8th district. Long-shot challenger Jim Harlan (D) in Louisiana’s 1st is also a client.

Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio) is another FRCR candidate, but Republicans failed to recruit a good candidate to take him on.

Once the Mahoney story broke, his media firm sought to sever all ties with the Congressman.

“FRCR Inc. has resigned from Tim Mahoney’s campaign and permanently ended our relationship with him,” CEO Bill Fletcher said. “According to ABC News, Tim Mahoney apparently included our company in a secret legal settlement without the knowledge of our firm. Our firm did not agree to any legal settlement. If these allegations are true, Tim Mahoney’s actions are unacceptable and not in line with FRCR’s business ethics.”

It may be too little too late to stop Republicans from pressing the issue.

UPDATE: In 2007, McNerney switched to McMahon, Squier, Lapp for media. On Thursday, the NRCC sought to make FRCR an issue against candidates in more districts including Don Cravins Jr. (LA7), Lincoln Davis (TN4), Tom Perriello (VA5), Paul Carmouche (LA4), and Joshua Segall (AL3).

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 15, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

California 3: Lungren Responds to Challenger With Two Polls

By Nathan L. Gonzales

On the heels of his opponent releasing a poll showing a statistically even race, Rep. Dan Lungren (R-Calif.) countered by paying for two polls by separate pollsters, each showing him with a significant lead.

An Oct. 7 survey for the Republican’s campaign, conducted by pollster Val Smith, showed him leading physician Bill Durston (D) 47 percent to 27 percent.

An Oct. 9 Moore Information poll, also paid for by Lungren, showed him with a similar 45 percent to 25 percent advantage, and third-party candidates combining for 3 percent.

The Congressman and his campaign said they simply did not believe the polling released early by Durston’s campaign and commissioned the polls to contest the results. An Oct. 4-6 survey by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates for Durston showed Lungren leading his Democratic challenger only 33 percent to 30 percent. A large 30 percent of the electorate was undecided.

Two years ago, Lungren defeated Durston 60 percent to 38 percent, with two third-party candidates combining for less than 3 percent of the vote.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 14, 1008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

California 3: Democratic Poll in California Shows Lungren Is Soft

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Maybe it’s the crummy national environment or maybe it was the topless attack ad, but a new Democratic poll in California’s 3rd district shows that Rep. Dan Lungren (R) may not be safe.

An Oct. 4-6 survey by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates (D) for physician Bill Durston (D) showed Lungren leading his Democratic challenger 33 percent to 30 percent. A large 30 percent of the electorate was undecided, according to the poll.

Two years ago, Lungren defeated Durston 60 percent to 38 percent, with two third-party candidates combining for less than 3 percent of the vote.

This cycle, Durston has been attacking the Congressman for taking junkets and money from special interests, culminating with a television ad of a shirtless Lungren walking poolside in swim trunks. Democrats have also narrowed their voter registration deficit in the district from 6 points to 4 points.

Of course, a majority of the undecided voters may end up breaking Lungren’s way in a district where President Bush garnered 58 percent of the vote in 2004. But Republican candidates can’t afford to take those voters for granted this cycle.

“Dan Lungren has done a great job representing the constituents in his district, and we’re confident the seat stays in Republican hands,” said Karen Hanretty, the National Republican Congressional Committee communications director.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 8, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Female Members Growing Their Families and Parties

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Last spring, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) became the first serving Member of Congress to give birth in more than a decade. Now, Congress is going through a mini baby boom.

South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D), and her husband, former Texas Rep. Max Sandlin (D), announced this week that they are expecting their first child in late December.

Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) just gave birth to her second child, a son, on May 15. McMorris Rodgers gave birth to her son in April 2007, and she was the fifth woman to have a baby while serving in Congress.

Each of the most recent moms has handled their political careers differently. McMorris Rodgers didn’t announce her pregnancy until after her competitive 2006 re-election.

After knocking off Rep. John Sweeney (R) last cycle, Gillibrand was initially regarded as one of the more vulnerable Democratic freshmen, but her fundraising and polling numbers have her in solid shape for re-election.

Herseth Sandlin is not in danger of losing re-election, but she is mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2010.

Back in 1996, then-Rep. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) chose not to seek re-election, and she gave birth to twin boys in June of the election year. But she made a political comeback two years later, winning an open Senate seat.

New York Rep. Susan Molinari (R) gave birth to a daughter that year as well. And later that summer, the Congresswoman went on to deliver the keynote address at the Republican National Convention, mentioning her daughter in her conclusion. Molinari left Congress a year later, however, to pursue a career in broadcasting. She is now a Washington, D.C., lobbyist.

In 1995, freshman Rep. Enid Greene Waldholtz (R-Utah) gave birth to a daughter. But her political career was short-lived — her then-husband, Joe Waldholtz, who had managed her winning campaign, became embroiled in personal and campaign finance scandals, and Waldholtz — now known as Enid Greene — had to abandon her 1996 re-election campaign. She ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor of Utah in 2004, and also briefly served as chairwoman of the Utah GOP.

Former California Rep. Yvonne Brathwaite Burke (D) was the first woman to give birth while serving in Congress, when she had a daughter in 1973. She served in the House for five more years, losing a bid for California attorney general in 1978. But Brathwaite Burke remains in politics today, and has served on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors since 1992. Now 75, she plans to retire when her term ends later this year.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on July 24, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Where, Oh Where Are the Top House GOP Opportunities?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Not a single Democratic House seat switched to the GOP in 2006 while Republicans were losing 30 Congressional seats.

Could Democrats pitch another shut-out this year? It’s possible, though unlikely, even given the poor Republican poll numbers, the desire for change and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s financial advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee.

After all, Democrats won a handful of reliably Republican districts in 2006 that they will struggle to retain, and no party has been shut out of taking over seats from the opposition in consecutive elections, at least since World War II.

So where are the best GOP chances?

Tier 1 Opportunities

Texas’ 22nd District, Nick Lampson (D). If only one Democratic seat switches to the Republicans, it’s likely to be Lampson’s. Lampson, of course, was defeated for re-election in 2004 (in a different district) only to come back and win Republican Tom DeLay’s open seat in 2006.

Although DeLay dropped his bid for re-election, the Republican nominee was unable to get her name on the ballot and was forced to run as a write-in candidate. Even then, Shelley Sekula Gibbs drew 42 percent of the vote.

Sekula Gibbs almost won her party’s nomination again this time, but she was defeated handily in the runoff by Pete Olson, a former aide to Sen. John Cornyn (R), who was generally regarded as the stronger general election candidate.

Lampson’s district gave President Bush 64 percent in 2004, a reflection of its Republican bent. While Lampson has built a much less liberal record than he did during his first service in the House, he is still a Democrat in a very Republican district. And that makes him the most vulnerable House Democrat in 2008.

Louisiana’s 6th District, Don Cazayoux (D). Cazayoux, a relatively conservative Democrat, is a reasonably good fit for his northeast Louisiana district. Despite that assessment, the reality is that he owes his seat in Congress to Woody Jenkins, the unelectable GOP nominee in the special election held earlier this year.

Cazayoux has a reasonable chance to win a full term in November, but if the Republicans nominate state Sen. Bill Cassidy, who has announced his candidacy, the freshman Democrat will have his hands full. The district definitely leans Republican, and a strong GOP nominee automatically becomes formidable. Republicans caught a rare break when Jenkins decided not to run again.

Tier 2 Opportunities

Kansas’ 2nd District, Nancy Boyda (D). Boyda upset then-Rep. Jim Ryun (R) last time, and the Republican nature of the district (Bush won it by 20 points in 2004) guarantees a serious contest. Ryun faces state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins for the Republican nomination.

Alabama’s 5th District, open seat. Rep. Bud Cramer’s (D) retirement opens up a conservative Southern district that will see stiff competition and should be a GOP target. But the likely Democratic nominee, state Sen. Parker Griffith, looks strong, while the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, Wayne Parker, lost to Cramer twice.

California’s 11th District, Jerry McNerney (D). Freshman McNerney rode the Democratic wave and help from the environmental community to beat Republican Rep. Richard Pombo two years ago, but he isn’t an ideal fit for his Republican- leaning district. The GOP nominee, former state Assemblyman Dean Andal, looks to be a serious threat.

Pennsylvania’s 10th District, Christopher Carney (D). Carney beat a scandal-plagued Republican in a solidly Republican district, and the question is how long he can hold onto the seat. His GOP challenger, businessman Chris Hackett, hasn’t united Republicans following a nasty primary. Still, Carney is in the kind of district that he can never take for granted.

Florida’s 16th District, Tim Mahoney (D). Much like others on the list, Mahoney would not have won last time except for a GOP scandal, but he has been a strong fundraiser and won’t be an easy target for Republicans, who won’t pick a nominee until late August. Still, the GOP is likely to have a credible nominee in this Republican-leaning district.

Other Districts to Watch

Pennsylvania’s 11th district, Paul Kanjorski (D). Democrats are nervous about veteran Kanjorski, who has received his share of negative publicity. The early campaign of Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) has been underwhelming, but that may not matter by the time November arrives. Polling suggests that this may well be a top-tier GOP takeover opportunity by November.

New York’s 20th district, Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Freshman Gillibrand is a fundraising phenom, and she will be very hard to beat in 2008. But former state GOP Chairman Sandy Treadwell has plenty of personal resources and is running in a reliably Republican district that a flawed Republican lost two years ago. The district’s fundamentals alone make this a Republican opportunity.

Wisconsin’s 8th district, Steve Kagen (D). Republican John Gard narrowly lost this Republican open seat last time, but the presidential year should bring out more voters and freshman Kagen hasn’t had the smoothest term.

A handful of other Democratic seats could also produce GOP upsets, including two in Arizona (Rep. Harry Mitchell’s and Rep. Gabrielle Gifford’s), Rep. Carol Shea-Porter’s in New Hampshire and Rep. Jim Marshall’s in Georgia.

No matter what happens, Democratic losses will be few and the party can expect a substantial net gain in November.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on July 14, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Change in Congress Comes in All Ages and Sizes

By Nathan L. Gonzales

While age is an underlying issue in the presidential contest, Democrats have candidates young and old running as change agents at the Congressional level.

Former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (D), 70, is a strong challenger to Rep. Sam Graves (R), 44, in Missouri’s 6th district. Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche (D) just turned 65, but is in a strong position to win the Republican open seat in Louisiana’s 4th district.

In New Jersey’s 5th, blind rabbi Dennis Shulman (D), 58, is a longer-shot challenger to Rep. Scott Garrett (R). And in Florida’s 21st district, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez (D), 59, is giving Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) his first real race in years.

Arizona Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) was a 67-year-old freshman in the 110th Congress, after defeating Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth last cycle.

On the flip side, Democrats also have a number of candidates born right around the time Jimmy Carter was elected president. Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia (D), 30, stands a good chance of coming to Congress next year as he tries to take over the very competitive Republican open seat in Minnesota’s 3rd district.

In Colorado’s 2nd district, wealthy businessman Jared Polis, 33, will come to Congress if he can make it out of the crowded Democratic primary on Aug. 12. Iraq War veteran Jon Powers (D), 29, also faces a competitive primary in New York’s 26th district. But if he’s the nominee, Powers will also face a general election fight.

Glenn Nye (D), 33, is hoping to knock off Rep. Thelma Drake (R) in Virginia’s 2nd district, while attorney Nick Leibham (D), 34, is hoping to oust Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) in California’s 50th.

André Carson, 33, was elected to Congress earlier this year in a special election to replace his grandmother, the late Rep. Julia Carson (D), in Indiana’s7th district. He defeated 30-year-old state Rep. Jon Elrod (R), who recently announced he was dropping out of the general election race.

Republicans have their own roster of youthful candidates. Duncan D. Hunter (R), 31, is a virtual lock to replace his father in California’s 52nd district.

Illinois state Rep. Aaron Schock (R), 27, could be the youngest Member of the next Congress. He’s favored in the fall, but he still has to win downstate Illinois’s 18th district seat, which is being vacated by Rep. Ray LaHood (R).

In New York’s 1st district, 28-year-old Iraq War veteran Lee Zeldin (R) is a long shot against incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop (D).

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on June 19, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.