House Members Soft-Pedal Their Résumés in Gubernatorial Campaigns

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Even though having Washington, D.C., on your résumé is supposed to be like having a scarlet letter on your lapel this election cycle, more than a dozen current and former Members of Congress are running for governor — and trying to overcome voters’ ill feelings toward the nation’s capital.

Not everyone can be as lucky as Rep. Mary Fallin, the heavy favorite to win the July 27 Oklahoma GOP primary and the general election in November. Instead, Members are trying to figure out how to maximize their federal experience without taking on too much water in their campaign.

“It’s a handicap in more ways than a help. Even more so this time,” said one GOP consultant who has worked with multiple Members who ran for governor. Not only do they have to balance their calendar between official duties and the trail, Members are also casting potentially controversial votes in the middle of a campaign.

In Alabama, Rep. Artur Davis is favored to win the June 1 Democratic gubernatorial primary, but victory is not guaranteed. Davis has been running a general election campaign from the outset and voted against the health care reform bill. So even though Davis’ Democratic primary opponent, state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, is running a mediocre campaign, he appears to be drawing votes from disenchanted Democrats who are upset with Davis for voting against health care reform.

In Georgia, GOP Rep. Nathan Deal postponed his resignation from the House in order to vote against the health care bill, hoping that doing so would give him a boost in the gubernatorial primary. But his departure from office was met with headlines about a possible ethics committee investigation into whether he used his Congressional office to help a family-owned business.

It’s exactly what Deal didn’t need in the middle of his battle with Secretary of State Karen Handel for the second slot in the Aug. 10 Republican runoff in the Peach State. State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine is expected to finish first in the July 20 primary.

According to one GOP strategist, Members shouldn’t quit to run for governor. The line won’t be erased from their résumé, and they shouldn’t throw away an opportunity to make news.

In South Carolina, Rep. Gresham Barrett is using his office as a platform to demonstrate his opposition to President Barack Obama and the Democratic agenda. One of Barrett’s television ads points out that the lawmaker is “more opposed to Obama than any Congressman in America, but one.”

Barrett is in the middle of a competitive four-candidate Republican primary set for June 8. He’s competing with state Rep. Nikki Haley and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer for a spot in the June 22 runoff against state Attorney General Henry McMaster, who is likely to finish first in the initial primary.

Rep. Zach Wamp, the eight-term Republican from Tennessee, talks about the Beltway from a distance, offering to meet people at the state line who want to take away guns.

Wamp doesn’t have the benefit of a runoff. He’ll have to knock off Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, the frontrunner in the GOP race, and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey in the Aug. 5 primary.

Rep. Pete Hoekstra appears to be the frontrunner in his race to become governor of Michigan, but there is a long way to go before the Aug. 3 GOP primary. An April 22 Rasmussen Reports survey showed him leading the primary with 28 percent. Wealthy venture capitalist Rick Snyder was second with 14 percent, state Attorney General Mike Cox had 13 percent and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard had 9 percent. The automated survey had a 4.5-point margin of error.

Hoekstra voted in favor of both the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 and the Troubled Asset Relief Program last year — decisions that could haunt him in the campaign.

In all four states (Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Michigan), the primary is critical because the GOP nominee will likely start the general election with a distinct advantage. But while Hoekstra is in a strong position in his primary, Deal, Barrett and Wamp are underdogs.

The Sept. 18 primary is critical in Hawaii, where the Democratic nominee will have the edge in November. Neil Abercrombie decided to resign his House seat earlier this year in order to focus on his gubernatorial bid. He should be able to spend more time on the campaign trail battling Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann instead of traveling the 5,000 miles one way from his district to D.C.

A number of former Members of Congress who have been out of the House for a lot longer than Abercrombie and Deal are also running for governor — with varying likelihoods of winning.

Former Rep. Scott McInnis is running in Colorado and doesn’t have much GOP primary opposition, but he faces a tough general election battle with Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D).

In Ohio, former Rep. John Kasich secured the GOP nomination in last week’s primary, but he faces an extremely competitive race against incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D), who also served in the House. While Democrats will try to use Kasich’s House service against him, they appear to be more excited about the Republican’s subsequent work for Lehman Brothers.

In Wisconsin, former Rep. Mark Neumann (R), who served with Kasich and Strickland in the House, is presenting himself primarily as a small-business man, but he isn’t shying away from his time in Congress.

“People look back at 12 years ago and remember a much different time,” Neumann said in a recent interview. “They remember we balanced the budget and passed tax cuts.”

Neumann’s GOP primary opponent agrees.

“I liked what he did in Congress. I was for it,” Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker said about Neumann’s record in the House. “I’m not going to attack him on it.”

Neumann looks like a slight underdog to Walker in the Sept. 14 primary, with the winner facing Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, a former Democratic Congressman, in the general election.

Other former Members are much longer shots in either the primary or general elections.

Former Rep. Rick Lazio is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination in New York but would face an extremely tough race against state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) in the general election.

In Pennsylvania, former Rep. Joe Hoeffel isn’t even polling in the double digits with the Democratic primary less than a week away.

Four other former Members are running for governor, but their House service is no longer their defining characteristic.

Former Rep. Bill McCollum has spent the past four years as Florida’s attorney general and has a slight advantage over state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D) in this fall’s election. McCollum can’t overlook wealthy health care executive Rick Scott in the GOP primary either.

Former GOP Rep. Bob Ehrlich is running for governor in Maryland, but he was already governor for four years before being defeated for re-election in 2006.

Former Rep. Butch Otter (R) is running for re-election as governor of Idaho, and ex-Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) is running for re-election in Nevada. Otter should be re-elected easily, while Gibbons, who has been battered by personal scandal, will likely lose in either the Republican primary or general election.

This story first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on May 13, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Paterson’s Timing Has Been Perfect for Democrats in N.Y. Specials

By Nathan L. Gonzales

While New York Gov. David Paterson’s (D) performance in office has been widely panned, his timing in three House special elections this cycle has been impeccable.

Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) resigned his 29th district seat more than a month ago, but Paterson still has not acknowledged the vacancy nor issued a date for a special election. State law gives the governor latitude to announce a vacancy, but when he does, a special election must be called.

According to sources in Washington, D.C., and the Empire State, Paterson has good relations with the New York delegation as well as the offices of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), and he leveraged those key relationships to get good advice on the timing of the special elections.

In the case of the 29th district vacancy, if Paterson were to call a special election today, Democrats would likely lose the seat. Their candidate, an unknown former CIA employee who had been living in Washington, is just beginning to get a campaign operation together and the political climate continues to be difficult for Democrats.

Paterson initially told reporters that he would call a special election to fill Massa’s seat “as soon as possible” but has since backed off. In a March 31 statement, his office raised concerns about “the financial impact that a special election could have on the county level.” A spokeswoman said no final decision had been made yet and reiterated that point to Roll Call again this week.

Democrats in the district say they would prefer to avoid a special election, also citing the costs involved. And one local Democratic source told Roll Call, “I wouldn’t hold my breath,” waiting for the governor to call a special, adding that there is a strong likelihood that the November general election will be the only contest to decide who the next Member from the 29th district is.

That has Republicans squawking about Democrats’ stalling tactics. Former Corning Mayor Tom Reed, the Republicans’ consensus candidate for Massa’s seat, has been publicly calling on the governor to call the election “forthwith,” but to no avail.

It’s hardly a coincidence that Democrats will benefit if Paterson chooses not to call a special election.

Paterson has “done a good job of reading the tea leaves with the delegation,” according to one New York Democratic consultant, who noted that the exception was the governor’s handling of then-Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand’s appointment to the Senate early last year.

But Paterson handled Gillibrand’s open seat extremely well. She resigned her House seat on Jan. 26, but the governor didn’t declare the vacancy until Feb. 23.

That extra month allowed Democrats to find their candidate, businessman Scott Murphy, and get him up to speed and ready to go against state Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco (R), who started the race with significantly higher name recognition. Murphy won the March 31 special election with 50 percent of the vote.

Last fall, Republican Rep. John McHugh vacated his 23rd district seat to become President Barack Obama’s secretary of the Army. The GOP Congressman resigned on Sept. 21, Paterson only took eight days to announce the vacancy that time and set the election to coincide with the regularly scheduled Nov. 3 elections.

After a popular state legislator passed on the race, Democrats quickly sorted through a list of others to find attorney Bill Owens, who won the November special election with 48 percent over Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. The GOP nominee, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, received almost 6 percent even though she dropped out late in the race and endorsed Owens.

Emily Cadei contributed to this report.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com and CQPolitics.com on April 18, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Cuomo Endorses Castle?

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Doing a little spring cleaning this week, I came across New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s book, Crossroads: The Future of American Politics, written and edited in the wake of Cuomo’s primary loss in the 2002 gubernatorial race.

Since he is the heavy favorite to win the Empire State’s governorship this fall, I decided to crack open the book to try to uncover some hidden gems.

“I have asked forty-one of the nation’s most thoughtful citizens to address the current state of American politics,” Cuomo wrote in the book’s introduction. One of those citizens is Republican Congressman and candidate for the U.S. Senate Mike Castle of Delaware.

The introduction to Castle’s chapter is even more glowing as it describes the Republican’s ideology as “focusing his efforts on finding pragmatic, bipartisan solutions to some of the most pressing problems facing the nation.”

Those are kind words, but not something Castle will want to take to a Tea Party. It doesn’t look like Castle will need to dust off the quotes in his race this year, but you never know.

Cuomo is up big in his own race this year, but he may be interested in helping Republicans recruit a top tier candidate.

“I believe in checks and balances and the two-party system,” Cuomo wrote in 2003. “Each party serves the nation better when faced with stiff opposition from the other party. The old adage is true: your game is only as good as the person on the other side of the net. To that end, a vigorous debate between two viable parties (at a minimum) is essential.”

Of course that was written at a time when Democrats were on their heels and in the minority. Cuomo might have a different definition of checks and balances today.

Looking back, Cuomo compiled an interesting collection of “thoughtful citizens” that demonstrates how people’s profiles change over time. Former Sen. John Edwards was an aspiring presidential candidate who is now known for his marital problems and then-Gov. Gray Davis (D) was recalled by California voters within the same year that the book was published. On the other hand, then-House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi ascended to become the Speaker of the House.

MoveOn.org Pressuring Democrats in Health Care Fight

By Nathan L. Gonzales

With House Democratic leaders ratcheting up their arm-twisting and whipping operations in advance of the high-stakes health care vote, pressure on vulnerable Members is also mounting from one of their own party’s most reliable attack dogs.

“Our members worked extremely hard to help get a Democratic majority elected,” said Ilyse Hogue, MoveOn.org’s director of political advocacy and communications. “Not to just get elected, but to pass legislation.”

On Monday, the liberal group backed that up with an e-mail to its members that threatens primaries for Members who vote against the bill and the release of a new six-figure national cable TV ad campaign that targets Democrats who are wavering on whether to support the controversial legislation.



Among the specific targets are Reps. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.), Scott Murphy (D-N.Y.) and Jason Altmire (D-Pa.). The group is spending more than $61,000 in Altmire’s district, more than $36,000 in Murphy’s district and more than $49,000 in North Dakota.



Pomeroy voted for an earlier health care package passed by the House, while Murphy and Altmire voted “no.” All three are now wavering on how they will vote later this week.

“Tell Congressman Jason Altmire to listen to us, not the insurance companies,” an announcer says in the spot that is running in his district.



In 2006, MoveOn.org and its members spent almost $448,000 to help Altmire defeat then-Rep. Melissa Hart (R) in Pennsylvania. That was the second-largest investment the group made in any House or Senate race that cycle, according to MoveOn.org’s post-election report.

The group recently stepped up to reassert its influence and fundraising prowess am

ong liberal Democratic activists by helping Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter raise more than $1.2 million in the week after he announced a primary challenge to Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D).

According to Hogue, Lincoln “distinguished herself early in the health care fight as an obstructionist.”

MoveOn.org’s latest action rekindles the tension between its push for progressive purity and party strategists’ efforts to get incumbents re-elected in competitive districts.

“They’re the friend who comes and yells at you at your own dinner party,” said one Democratic strategist, who acknowledged that MoveOn.org has become a decidedly mixed bag for the party.

Part of the problem for Democrats is that they never quite know where the liberal group will aim the collective power of its 5.2 million members next.

“They live in a slightly different universe,” according to another veteran Democratic strategist. “They don’t look to fit their strategy in concert with everyone else.”

With Democrats in control of the White House, the House and the Senate for the first time in MoveOn.org’s dozen years of existence, Hogue acknowledged they are in uncharted waters.

“We’re taking less of a party approach and more of an individual approach,” she said about the group’s activities this cycle.

In an e-mail Monday, the group asked members to “pledge to support progressive primary challengers to House Democrats who side with Republicans to kill health care reform.”

But the candidate filing deadline has already passed Pennsylvania, as well as in North Carolina, where MoveOn.org invested $179,000 in 2008 to help elect now-Rep. Larry Kissell (D). Kissell also voted against the House health care reform bill.

The filing deadlines have passed in 15 other states as well, so it will be impossible to field progressive primary challengers there.

On one hand, votes for health care reform and the cap-and-trade bill are deemed political suicide, but Hogue argues that in the case of Arkansas, Lincoln’s favorable rating has fallen so far with the Democratic base because of her approach that she’ll have trouble turning out Democrats she needs to get re-elected.

The Democratic infighting is good news for Republicans, who have had their share of ideological spats showcased this cycle and who have been on the receiving end of MoveOn.org attacks in the past.

“Their focus isn’t on Republicans anymore,” quipped one House GOP operative about the group’s recent focus on progressive purity. In some ways, Republicans have moved on as well.

The National Republican Congressional Committee recently attacked South Carolina Democratic challenger Rob Miller for being a “darling” of MoveOn.org, but similar attacks appear to be tapering off as ACORN rises to the top of the list of Democratic bogeymen for the GOP.

This year won’t be the first time MoveOn.org has waded into Democratic primaries. They helped Donna Edwards defeat Rep. Albert Wynn in Maryland in 2008 and Ned Lamont defeat Joe Lieberman in the Senate primary in Connecticut in 2006, even though Lieberman went on to win re-election as an Independent.

“They do have the ability to help Democrats with urgent resources,” according to the Democratic strategist.

MoveOn.org and its members infused state Attorney General Martha Coakley’s (D) campaign with more than $600,000 in the Massachusetts Senate special election and helped elect Rep. Bill Owens (D) in last year’s special election in New York’s 23rd district.

But the group has provoked its share of controversy.

It sponsored a contest in 2004 that resulted in someone uploading a commercial to its Web site that paralleled President George W. Bush and Adolf Hitler. MoveOn.org was also heavily criticized in September 2007 after the group ran a full-page ad in the New York Times with the headline, “General Petraeus or General Betray-Us?” According to multiple Democratic strategists, that was a low point for the organization.

Still, the group has certainly benefited the Democratic Party.

In the spring of 2006, MoveOn.org aired a series of “red-handed” television attack ads that helped soften up second- and third-tier Republican incumbents and ultimately helping Democrats win the majority. Overall, the group spent $4.4 million in contributions and independent expenditures in 33 targeted House and Senate races.



In 2008, MoveOn.org’s spending held steady at $4.6 million in 20 House and Senate races, but the group’s members gave $88 million and 20 million volunteer hours to help elect Barack Obama as president of the United States.

This story first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on March 16, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

The Most Refreshing, Yet Unusual, Candidate Interview I’ve Done

By Stuart Rothenberg

Over the past 20 years, I have interviewed thousands of candidates, but never one quite like Richard Hanna.

I didn’t interview Hanna last cycle, even though he ran a surprisingly strong race against then-freshman Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) in New York’s 24th district, an oddly shaped swath of territory that includes a chunk of central New York state.

Arcuri won by just fewer than 10,000 votes (less than 4 points), a weaker showing than two years earlier when the Democrat won an open seat against a veteran GOP state Senator. In fact, Arcuri had the closest call of any Democratic incumbent who won re-election in the entire nation.

Nobody expected Hanna, who ran on the Republican, Conservative and Independence lines, to come as close as he did. He had never been active in politics, let alone run for political office. The National Republican Congressional Committee didn’t do much for him, and the Rothenberg Political Report never carried the race as a district that might flip.

Hanna called me last year after his failed bid to talk about his race. I thought it a little odd, since I had ignored the contest, and he had no reason to touch base with me at that point. When asked, he said that he hadn’t decided about running again.

So before I interviewed Hanna four days ago, all I knew about him was that he was in the construction business, had decided to seek a rematch against Arcuri, had far exceeded expectations in 2008 and had now caught the attention of the NRCC.

Normally, my candidate interviews are not for quotation, but when three-quarters of the way through the interview I asked him if all of his comments were on the record, he looked at me as if I were a little dense. Of course, he answered. That’s the answer I expected.

Here are some of the things Richard Hanna, the 2008 Republican nominee for Congress and a 2010 hopeful, said during that interview:

“I never really thought of myself as a Republican. I still don’t.”

“I don’t live in a world where ideology helps you. I live in a world of practical solutions.”

Would he like Sarah Palin to campaign for him? “No,” he said, smiling. “She seems like a nice lady, but that’s not me.”

When asked about Republican Capitol Hill enthusiasm for his rematch against Arcuri: “It’s nice they are excited about my race, but they may be disappointed when I get here.”

And, finally, when I asked him whether he would commit to supporting House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) for Speaker if the GOP wins back the House, he looked incredulous. “No,” he responded. “I don’t know him. I would need to meet him.”

I don’t mean to give the impression that Hanna, who identifies himself as something of a libertarian, is politically naive or in the wrong party. He isn’t, on either account.

On cultural issues, he definitely differs with many of his Republican supporters, since he supports abortion rights and civil unions for gays, and he thinks “don’t ask, don’t tell” should be reversed.

But on other issues, he is conservative, opposing the stimulus bill (for stimulating the growth of government, not creating jobs), the public insurance option and an insurance mandate in health care reform, and cap-and-trade.

A critic of the Iraq War during the Bush administration, he seems conflicted about U.S. policy in Afghanistan.

What did I think of Hanna? He was delightful — thoughtful, down to earth and straightforward. My “b.s. meter” didn’t go off even once. Many of the candidates I’ve interviewed over the past five years have called themselves independent and portrayed themselves as outsiders, but their answers to my questions told a different story. That’s where Hanna is different.

Just think, he actually wants to meet his party leader, talk with him and size him up before committing to vote for him for Speaker. My goodness, what a concept.

After meeting thousands of candidates who rarely have an unscripted or interesting thought, who are so predictable that I could give their answers before they do, I was obviously stunned by Hanna’s approach to politics, policy and public service.

Can Hanna win this time? That’s unclear at this point.

The district, which includes Rome, Utica, Oneonta, Cortland, Geneva and the territory in between, is politically competitive.

Liberal Republican Sherwood Boehlert held the seat for years before retiring in 2006. President Barack Obama carried the district narrowly, 50 percent to 48 percent in 2008, but George W. Bush won it in 2004 (53 percent to 47 percent) and more narrowly in 2000 (48 percent to 47 percent). Republicans have a registration advantage over Democrats, but not by much.

Arcuri didn’t really unload on Hanna last time, preferring to ignore him. This time, Arcuri and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are likely to pulverize Hanna, who readily admits that his business has been sued and he “has fought with [the Occupational Safety and Health Administration] and municipalities.”

I remember interviewing Arcuri, then the Oneida County district attorney, during his first run, and he was poised and serious. He won’t roll over for Hanna. Last year, Arcuri apparently ran a mediocre race, but this year I expect him to run a far better campaign.

I look forward to a very interesting contest between two quality candidates.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on March 8, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

NY 29 Moved to Toss-Up

Cong. Eric Massa's (D) retirement creates another open seat opportunity for Republicans. Massa was headed for a competitive race this year, but without him, New York's 29th District is considerably more vulnerable for the Democrats.

Sen. John McCain won the district 51%-48% in 2008 and George W. Bush won it twice by at least 10 points. Former Corning Mayor Tom Reed has been the likely GOP nominee to this point. We'll see who the Democrats get to replace Massa, but we're moving the race from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up.


Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 10 D)

• AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
  
• AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D)
• CO 4 (Markey, D)
• IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
• MI 7 (Schauer, D)
• NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
• NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
• NY 29 (Open; Massa, D) *
  
• PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
• TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
• WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 10 D)

• AL 2 (Bright, D)
• FL 8 (Grayson, D)
• ID 1 (Minnick, D)
• KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
• MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
• MS 1 (Childers, D)
• NM 2 (Teague, D)
• OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
• OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
• VA 5 (Perriello, D)

Lean Republican (3 R, 2 D)

• CA 3 (Lungren, R)
• LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
• PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
  
• TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D)
• WA 8 (Reichert, R)
  

Republican Favored (8 R, 0 D)

• CA 44 (Calvert, R)
• CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
• MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
• MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
• NE 2 (Terry, R)
• OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
• OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
• PA 15 (Dent, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 3 D)

• FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
• IL 14 (Foster, D)
• VA 2 (Nye, D)

Lean Democratic (0 R, 10 D)

• HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) Special Election
• IN 9 (Hill, D)
• MO 4 (Skelton, D)
• NV 3 (Titus, D)
• NY 1 (Bishop, D)
• NY 19 (Hall, D)
• NY 23 (Owens, D)
• NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
• SC 5 (Spratt, D)
• WV 1 (Mollohan, D)

Democrat Favored (2 R, 23 D)

• AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
• AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
• CO 3 (Salazar, D)
• CA 11 (McNerney, D)
• CA 47 (Sanchez, D)
• CT 5 (Murphy, D)
  
• DE A-L (Open; Castle, R)
• GA 8 (Marshall, D)
• IA 3 (Boswell, D)
• LA 2 (Cao, R)
• NY 13 (McMahon, D)
• NY 20 (Murphy, D)
• NC 8 (Kissell, D)
• ND A-L (Pomeroy, D)
• NJ 3 (Adler, D)
• OH 16 (Boccieri, D)
• OH 18 (Space, D)
• PA 4 (Altmire, D)
• PA 8 (Murphy, D)
• PA 10 (Carney, D)
• PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)
• PA 12 (Open; Murtha, D) Special Election
  
• PA 17 (Holden, D)
• SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)
• TX 17 (Edwards, D)
• VA 9 (Boucher, D)
• WI 8 (Kagen, D)

Total seats in play: 74
Republican seats: 14
Democratic seats: 60

Don’t Hold Your Breath for an Anti-Incumbent Election

By Stuart Rothenberg

Voters are angry, especially at Washington, D.C., and with politicians. They are unhappy with both parties. All that is generally true.

But voters’ dissatisfaction with those in charge doesn’t mean that November is likely to be an “anti-incumbent election.” In fact, it almost certainly won’t. We never, or almost never, have true anti-incumbent elections, as I have noted before.

If Republican incumbents have problems, it will be in their primaries.

In Texas, Gov. Rick Perry looked to have enough momentum to pull away from his GOP primary opponent, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. But that hasn’t happened. The Senator hasn’t been a scintillating candidate, but she is still very much in the game against the governor, according to knowledgeable insiders.

Perry won re-election four years ago with only 39 percent of the vote in a four-way race. While conservatives have rallied behind him, there are many in the Republican Party who don’t like his smugness and his shoot-from-the-hip style.

Arizona’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who became the state’s top officeholder when her predecessor joined the Obama administration, faces a roomful of primary challengers in her bid for a full term, and her prospects are uncertain. She inherited a terrible budget situation and was forced to select from a number of unappealing choices.

Indiana Rep. Dan Burton, South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis and Utah Sen. Bob Bennett also face challenges that have developed to a stage that make them worth watching.

Nonincumbent Republicans who have the mantle of the establishment are also vulnerable given the current environment.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the state’s GOP Senate nomination, is the most obvious example. He faces a very difficult fight against former state Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who is running as the insurgent despite his previous position.

The same dynamic is taking place in New Hampshire, where conservative Ovide Lamontagne and two businessmen could give former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte a migraine in the Republican Senate primary.

And in Kentucky, Rand Paul, son of Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul (a former presidential candidate), is running as an outsider for the Republican Senate nomination against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the favorite of virtually the entire state and the national Republican Party. GOP insiders think Grayson can win the primary, but they are far from certain about the outcome.

But if those incumbents (and establishment-backed nonincumbents) get past their primaries, they will then benefit from the public mood, which currently looks likely to punish Democrats at the ballot box.

A rash of recent polling, much of it paid for by liberal Web sites Daily Kos and Firedoglake, show Democratic incumbents in horrible shape — about where Republicans were in 2006 and 2008.

Surveys over the past couple of weeks have shown former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) ahead of Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) by 8 points, Andy Harris (R) leading Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-Md.) by 13 points, former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) leading Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.) by 10 points and former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) leading Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) by a whopping 17 points.

In addition, Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) leads unknown challenger Randy Altschuler (R) by only 2 points, while controversial Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is drawing 55 percent in an early ballot test against state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D).

Even if only most of these results are close to being accurate, they suggest that other Democratic House incumbents are seeing significant erosion in their numbers from what those same numbers were even a year ago.

Over in the Senate, Democratic numbers are equally terrible.

Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Nevada Sen. Harry Reid are sitting with unfavorable ratings larger than their favorable ratings. Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who would be crushed if this year’s political environment resembled that of the 2006 or 2008 cycle, is running even or ahead of his potential Democratic opponents, and Democratic prospects over the past year have deteriorated in Ohio and Missouri.

Polling in North Carolina is particularly instructive. Recent surveys continue to show roughly equal numbers of respondents approving and disapproving of the job Sen. Richard Burr (R) is doing. But even with those mediocre numbers, Burr is holding clear (if unintimidating) leads over his potential general election opponents.

The bottom line on all of this seems pretty clear: Voters are not enamored of incumbents of either party, and GOP incumbents or “establishment” candidates facing strong “outsider” primary opponents could be in for more rough sledding than they would normally need to expect.

But when the general election rolls around, unless there is a significant change in the national mood, voter dissatisfaction will be aimed overwhelmingly at the candidates of one party. And that is why Democratic insiders are privately raising their own estimates of party losses.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on January 25, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Colorado Senate & New York 1

The December 11, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as updated House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of the introduction to this edition:

Colorado Senate: Proving Ground
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Former Denver Public Schools chief Michael Bennet (D) is on a steep learning curve about what it means to be a United States senator.

After President Barack Obama appointed Sen. Ken Salazar (D) to be his secretary of the Interior, Gov. Bill Ritter (D) appointed Bennet to fill the vacancy. At the time, Bennet was largely a political unknown and has never been a candidate himself. But now he could face both a competitive primary and general election in his first trip down the campaign trail.

Former state Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff is viewed as a rising star in the Democratic Party, but he has his work cut out for him against the party-backed Bennet. And once he’s nominated, Bennet will likely face former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) and maybe more importantly, a large group of independent voters in the general election.

Subscribers get the lay of the land, candidate bios, consulting teams, and how it plays out- all in the print edition.

New York 1: Job Security
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Republicans and Democrats don’t agree on much these days, but strategists from both parties agree that jobs will be the top issue in New York’s 1st District next year.

After winning the seat in 2002, Cong. Tim Bishop (D) hasn’t faced much of a challenge. But this cycle, Republicans are excited about wealthy entrepreneur Randy Altschuler and believe he has the resources and resume to win the Long Island district.

Democrats are anxious to talk about Altschuler’s skill creating jobs overseas while Republicans are more than happy to highlight the Democratic Party’s disappointing record of job creation at home. It remains to be seen what shape the economy is in next fall, but this race demonstrates the Republicans’ ability to broaden the playing field from the last couple of cycles.

Subscribers get the lay of the land, candidate bios, consulting teams, and how it plays out- all in the print edition.