We Come to Bury Sodrel, Not to Praise Him

By Stuart Rothenberg

Mike Sodrel has been in my life forever. Or maybe it just seems that way.

Every two years for almost a decade, the Republican businessman has been on the ballot in Indiana’s 9th district, either trying to oust Rep. Baron Hill (D) from Congress or, once, seeking re-election to the House.

But with his bizarre primary defeat earlier this month, Sodrel, a 64-year-old trucking company owner, probably ends a political run that featured more downs than ups.

Sodrel first took on Hill in 2002, four years after the Democrat won an open-seat contest to succeed highly regarded Democrat Lee Hamilton in a Congressional district that includes much of southeastern Indiana.

Hill won that contest narrowly, 51 percent to 46 percent, and Sodrel presumably figured that he’d do better in a rematch. He did, nipping Hill by half a point (49.5 percent to 49 percent) to win the House seat in the presidential year of 2004.

Hill, figuring that he’d do better in a midterm year, came back for a rematch of his own, and he won back his seat, 50 percent to 45 percent.

Sodrel, not content to move on with his life, ran again in 2008. But this time Hill, riding a big Democratic wave, went on to draw 58 percent of the vote and win by about 20 points, a true landslide in a district where Hill previously had won by just a few points.

You might have thought that Sodrel would see the writing on the wall, and for months it seemed as if he had run his last race in the 9th district. But with the Republican field in the district very thin this cycle (attorney Todd Young and real estate investor/outspoken Christian Travis Hankins), Sodrel once again jumped into the race.

He came in for an interview in late March, his eyes focused squarely on Hill and the general election, not on the primary.

He was armed with a Wilson Research Strategies poll of 400 likely general election voters (with an oversample that included 300 likely GOP primary voters), conducted Feb. 28 to March 4.

During the interview, Sodrel and his consultants dismissed his primary opponents, preferring to talk about how and why the former Congressman was going to defeat Hill. In fact, the WRS polling memo included four “Key Observations” — the first three about how well-positioned Sodrel was to defeat Hill.

Only the fourth point — “With the Primary Election in 41 days, it is very unlikely that Young or Hankins can catch-up” — dealt with the primary outlook.

According to the WRS poll, Sodrel’s 46 percent showing in the Republican primary put him far ahead of Hankins’ 19 percent and Young’s 13 percent. Both primary opponents had been running for more than a year, the WRS memo pointed out dismissively, promising that the former Congressman should “sweep” his primary opponents away in the early May contest.

Part of Sodrel’s optimism about the primary is that, as he told us, he is “98 percent known” by the Republican base. Because he said that it takes years to build up name ID in a district that includes multiple media markets, he didn’t plan to spend much money or run paid media during the primary campaign.

Of course, as Sodrel found out, there is a difference between being known and being liked.

Apparently, 9th district Republican voters knew Sodrel but were ready for a change.

Sodrel ended up finishing third, with 30 percent of the primary vote, behind Young (34 percent) and Hankins (32 percent). Hankins had raised a total of $184,000 through April 14, yet he finished ahead of a former Congressman who was allegedly leading the contest handily six weeks earlier.

National Republican strategists weren’t all that upset when Sodrel lost the primary. They figured that voters had already tired of him and that he didn’t have all that appealing a profile given the dynamics of the 2010 cycle.

If Sodrel’s defeat proves anything, it is that candidates can’t take anything for granted and that any candidate who thinks he doesn’t need to win over the voters is a candidate who probably won’t win over the voters. It also raises questions about some early polling.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on June 1, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Tuesday Showed It’s Wise to Expect Unexpected

By Stuart Rothenberg

What a really weird week.

Rep. Mark Souder, a socially conservative Republican from Indiana, admits he had an affair with a staffer and steps down from his seat. Squeaky-clean Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) admits he “misspoke” about his military record but says he won’t allow anyone to “impugn my record of service to our country.” And primary voters in Pennsylvania and Kentucky appear to prefer the more ideological candidates in primaries.

Souder’s resignation means local Republican leaders will pick a new nominee — something that didn’t work well twice in New York special elections last year. It’s a recipe for hurt feelings and attacks against the party’s “handpicked” candidate at a time when party insiders aren’t at their most popular.

This doesn’t mean that Democrats have a strong chance of winning the open seat, given the district’s bent and the tendency of special elections to help the party not holding the White House when the president is unpopular. But it does mean that the Republican nominee ought not take a victory for granted.

In the Nutmeg State, Blumenthal’s out-of-the-blue scandal is unwelcome news for national and state Democrats.

Blumenthal’s past statements will now be dissected by state reporters looking for other examples of embellishment and exaggeration, and if they find more examples, it will raise questions about his record, in addition to his character.

Does this mean that Connecticut is a tossup? Has the race changed so dramatically that neither party has an advantage?

When in the middle of a storm — meteorological or political — the best advice usually is to hunker down and wait for the storm to pass until it is safe to assess the damage. We don’t know how the Blumenthal controversy will develop, so I’m inclined to see what the voters think about the controversy before changing a rating.

Obviously, the dust-up over the state attorney general’s misstatements creates an opening for Republicans, raising new doubts about Blumenthal’s appeal. Still, this is Connecticut, and the eventual GOP nominee will have to overcome plenty of hurdles of his or her own.

Rand Paul’s thumping of Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson for the GOP Senate nomination in the Bluegrass State can’t be ignored.

Grayson raised some eyebrows by closing with two TV spots that emphasized his endorsements by high-profile state and national Republican leaders. Observers thought the decision odd given the electorate’s mood.

But Grayson’s media consultant Larry McCarthy, whom I have praised over the years and still believe is a master ad-maker, told me that the final ads weren’t picked out of the air.

“We tested negatives, the value of the [Sen. Mitch] McConnell and [Rep. Hal] Rogers endorsements and other things, and it wasn’t a close call. The data suggested strongly that [what we chose] was the right message to do,” McCarthy told me.

Paul’s early money made him a credible alternative to Grayson, who was preferred by national GOP strategists and most big-name Kentucky Republicans but was widely regarded as less than a compelling personality.

Can Paul win in the fall? Republicans who were initially skeptical about his electability now think that he could win. But they remain extremely worried about his prospects.

Veteran Republican campaign operatives fear that Democrats will successfully highlight some of his controversial past statements, and they worry that he has an additional six months to make a major mistake or two that could cost him the race. They also note that he has run a strong race so far.

Kentucky Democratic nominee Jack Conway’s narrow primary win also means problems for Democrats, because they too will have to find a way to unite after a bitter primary. Supporters of Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D), more rural and culturally conservative, won’t necessarily gravitate to Conway in the general election.

The instant analysis of “outsider” victories Tuesday isn’t wrong — it just presents only part of the picture.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D) lost in Pennsylvania not because he was an insider as much as because he was a party switcher without a pre-existing base in his new party — and an opportunist at that. But Paul certainly qualifies as an “outsider,” and some “establishment-backed” candidates for Congress (for example, Republican Mary Beth Buchanan in Pennsylvania’s 4th district and incumbent Democratic Rep. Tim Holden in Pennsylvania’s 17th district) performed much worse than expected.

On the other hand, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) turned back a primary challenge, and former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino (R) won his primary in Pennsylvania’s 10th district. Kentucky’s Conway was also backed by his state party’s establishment, and not a single House incumbent on Tuesday seeking renomination was defeated. So far this cycle, 98 percent of all incumbents seeking re-election have been renominated.

The defeat of Republican Tim Burns in the Pennsylvania 12th district special election obviously is the biggest blow to the GOP, which hoped to show the existence of an early wave building against Democrats and President Barack Obama. That didn’t happen, in part because of strong Democratic turnout in the race and statewide.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on May 20, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Nevada Senate & Indiana Senate

Subscribers already have the May 10, 2010 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report, but here are excerpts from the introduction to the two stories in this issue:

Nevada Senate: Know When to Fold ’Em
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Democrats are in danger of losing their second Senate majority leader in a decade.

Republicans knocked off South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle (D) in 2004, but they did it with a popular former congressman who had previously been elected statewide. This year in Nevada, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) is stuck in the polls, but his Republican opponents are anything but top tier.

But that may not matter.

Subscribers get the full story including the Lay of the Land, candidate bios and a breakdown of the GOP primary and general election.

Indiana Senate: New Sheriff in Town?
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Democrats weren’t supposed to be worried about Indiana this year, since Sen. Evan Bayh (D) looked like a sure bet for reelection initially, even with a deteriorating national political environment.

But then Bayh shocked the political world by announcing his retirement, leaving Democrats scrambling to find a replacement and a difficult open seat to defend.

Last week, Republicans nominated former senator and former ambassador Dan Coats, while Democrats have coalesced behind Cong. Brad Ellsworth, a former sheriff with a record of winning in a conservative Congressional district.

Even though Ellsworth is probably the Democrats’ best candidate and party strategists are confident that Coats’s resume after leaving office will be too much for Hoosiers to stomach, it’s simply a terrible cycle for Democrats to run in, particularly in a Republican-leaning state like Indiana.

Subscribers get the full story including the Lay of the Land, candidate bios, their consulting teams and a breakdown of the general election.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as updated House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Can These Democrats Swim Against the Political Current in 2010?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Democrats rode national political waves during the past two cycles. There will likely be another wave this year, but this time the beneficiaries will be Republicans.

The 2010 election cycle’s dynamics make difficult races even harder for two appealing House Democratic candidates I interviewed recently, Suzan DelBene and Jon Hulburd.

DelBene, 48, is an impressive Democratic recruit in Washington’s 8th district. She worked for Microsoft for almost a decade before becoming vice president at an Internet startup firm (drugstore.com) and then CEO of a software/data integration company (Nimble Technology).

She later returned to Microsoft as a corporate vice president. Her husband is a senior VP at the company, a very high-level position. Money shouldn’t be a problem for her bid.

DelBene has already put $500,000 into her race, ending 2009 with $773,000 in the bank. She expects the race to cost $3.5 million, certainly not out of line considering that Democrat Darcy Burner spent almost $4.5 million in her 2008 rematch against Rep. Dave Reichert (R), not counting the more than $1.6 million the DCCC spent in the district.

DelBene is poised, well-spoken and likable. She has a strong résumé of accomplishments and considerable business experience, and since she has never run for political office before, she can run as a political outsider and an agent of change. All those are pluses in this environment.

On the other hand, the Reed College graduate is a down-the-line liberal — pro-stimulus, pro-cap-and-trade, pro-House-health-care-bill, anti-Stupak-amendment (a measure that is offensive to abortion-rights advocates) — in a district where the liberal Burner came up just short twice, during great Democratic years.

The 8th district is evenly divided among Republicans and Democrats, but Reichert’s appeal is demonstrated by his ability to survive two Democratic waves. Had DelBene run last time, she probably would have won. But 2010 is looking like a much different year.

Democrat Hulburd faces a similar challenge in his bid to turn Arizona’s 3rd district blue. Rep. John Shadegg’s (R) retirement creates an open-seat opportunity for Democrats, especially given the huge Republican field and uncertain outcome of the party’s primary.

Hulburd, 51, is a commercial litigator making his first run for office. Like DelBene, he is well-spoken, poised and has substantial personal resources, a solid Democratic recruit who has been active in his community. He raised $315,000 in the fourth quarter and ended the year with $259,000 on hand.

Stressing his independence and the fact that he isn’t “a politician,” Hulburd hopes to tap the public’s dissatisfaction with Washington, D.C., and with the state Legislature.

The open seat presumably enhances Democrats’ chances, but past election numbers aren’t encouraging. Barack Obama drew 42 percent in the district, 1 point better than John Kerry did in 2004 and about the same as Al Gore did in 2000.

The 2008 Democratic nominee, Bob Lord, spent $1.8 million on the race (but inexplicably went dark on TV at a crucial time) and benefited from just more than $2 million in independent expenditure spending by the DCCC, all of which got him just 42 percent of the vote.

Hulburd might have done better as the Democratic nominee last time. But given Lord and Obama’s showings last time and the different mood of this cycle, Hulburd will need a deeply wounded Republican nominee to have much of a chance.

Another Democrat who faces the same problem is Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who is running for Senate in Indiana.

The 8th district Congressman is running for retiring Sen. Evan Bayh’s seat, and if the calendar said 2006 or 2008, I’d be putting my money on Ellsworth. But it doesn’t.

I haven’t interviewed Ellsworth since he ran for the House in 2006, but he is just the kind of Democrat who could win statewide in the Hoosier State in a favorable or even neutral political climate.

Socially conservative and a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, he opposes legal abortion and gun control, and he voted against both cap-and-trade legislation and the stimulus bill that passed the House. He did, however, support the final version of the stimulus that eventually was signed into law, as well as the House Democrats’ health care bill.

A former police officer and county sheriff, Ellsworth drew 61 percent in defeating a Republican incumbent in 2006. Two years later, he increased his showing to more than 64 percent at the same time that Obama was drawing only 47 percent in the district.

The Democrat obviously fits his district well, but as CQ’s Politics in America noted, his “telegenic good looks hasn’t hurt him, either.”

But this year, Ellsworth will be on the defensive because of his party, and his voting record will give Republicans ammunition. His likely GOP opponent, former Sen. Dan Coats, has plenty of vulnerabilities (including telling an audience that he plans to move to North Carolina when he retires), but being a Republican won’t be one of them.

Of DelBene, Hulburd and Ellsworth, I suspect that Ellsworth has the best chance of swimming against the tide. Senate races get more visibility than House contests, and the GOP field isn’t intimidating in the Indiana Senate race.

Timing is everything in politics, and good candidates sometimes find themselves running in bad places or in bad years. For DelBene and Hulburd, a difficult race may have morphed into a nearly impossible one right now.


This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on March 11, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

MA 10 Moved From Safe to Democrat Favored

Democratic Cong. Bill Delahunt’s retirement creates another open seat opportunity for Republicans. But even though Scott Brown (R) won Massachusetts’ 10th District by 20 points in his historic statewide win earlier this year, this seat is a long ways away, geographically and politically, from Democratic open seats in the South.

Barack Obama won the seat 55%-44% in 2008 and it’s going to be tough for Republicans to re-create the dynamic from the Senate race. Of course we’ll see how the candidate fields play out, but for now, the race moves from Safe to Democrat Favored.

Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 11 D)

• AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
  
• AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D)
• CO 4 (Markey, D)
• IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
• IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D) *
  
• MI 7 (Schauer, D)
• NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
• NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
• NY 29 (Open; Massa, D)
  
• PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
• TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
• WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 10 D)

• AL 2 (Bright, D)
• FL 8 (Grayson, D)
• ID 1 (Minnick, D)
• KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
• MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
• MS 1 (Childers, D)
• NM 2 (Teague, D)
• OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
• OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
• VA 5 (Perriello, D)

Lean Republican (3 R, 2 D)

• CA 3 (Lungren, R)
• LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
• PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
  
• TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D)
• WA 8 (Reichert, R)
  

Republican Favored (8 R, 0 D)

• CA 44 (Calvert, R)
• CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
• MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
• MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
• NE 2 (Terry, R)
• OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
• OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
• PA 15 (Dent, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 3 D)

• FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
• IL 14 (Foster, D)
• VA 2 (Nye, D)

Lean Democratic (0 R, 10 D)

• HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) Special Election
• IN 9 (Hill, D)
• MO 4 (Skelton, D)
• NV 3 (Titus, D)
• NY 1 (Bishop, D)
• NY 19 (Hall, D)
• NY 23 (Owens, D)
• NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
• SC 5 (Spratt, D)
• WV 1 (Mollohan, D)

Democrat Favored (2 R, 24 D)

• AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
• AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
• CO 3 (Salazar, D)
• CA 11 (McNerney, D)
• CA 47 (Sanchez, D)
• CT 5 (Murphy, D)
  
• DE A-L (Open; Castle, R)
• GA 8 (Marshall, D)
• IA 3 (Boswell, D)
• LA 2 (Cao, R)
• MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D) *
  
• NY 13 (McMahon, D)
• NY 20 (Murphy, D)
• NC 8 (Kissell, D)
• ND A-L (Pomeroy, D)
• NJ 3 (Adler, D)
• OH 16 (Boccieri, D)
• OH 18 (Space, D)
• PA 4 (Altmire, D)
• PA 8 (Murphy, D)
• PA 10 (Carney, D)
• PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)
• PA 12 (Open; Murtha, D) Special Election
  
• PA 17 (Holden, D)
• SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)
• TX 17 (Edwards, D)
• VA 9 (Boucher, D)
• WI 8 (Kagen, D)

Total seats in play: 76
Republican seats: 14
Democratic seats: 62

Plus 10 in the Senate? Republicans Certainly Not There Yet

By Stuart Rothenberg

Having seen victories by Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, the 1994 Republican and 2006 Democratic Congressional sweeps, and Sen. Scott Brown’s (R) recent Massachusetts victory, I’m not inclined to rule out unexpected outcomes — especially nine months before an event.

But the recent explosion of talk of Republicans gaining 10 seats in the Senate is simply premature. Right now, the GOP has an opportunity to net as many as eight Senate seats. That’s a huge number, especially considering that Democrats have 18 seats up this fall, but it is well short of control.

The new political landscape has resulted in an improved environment for the GOP, including the very real possibility that the party can retain all four of its most vulnerable open seats, in Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and New Hampshire.

For the moment, let’s assume the GOP avoids losing any of its own seats.

Republicans have the advantage in four Democratic-held Senate seats — North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas and Nevada. In addition, they are no worse than even money in four others — Indiana, Illinois, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

So, any chance of gaining 10 seats would require Republican candidates to win at least two of the following four states: Connecticut, California, Wisconsin and Washington.

Early polling in Connecticut shows state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal ahead of both former Rep. Rob Simmons and businesswoman Linda McMahon, the two Republicans most likely to be the eventual nominee.

Simmons is a quirky ex-legislator who built a moderate record while representing eastern Connecticut in the House. McMahon is a wealthy, self-funding first-time candidate whose claim to fame and wealth, professional wrestling, is widely seen as crude and violent.

Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D) exit from the race hurt Simmons, whose main argument has been substance and electability. He is now an underdog for the GOP nomination. McMahon’s wealth (she has promised to spend tens of millions of dollars), outsider persona, poise and relatively conservative positioning makes her stronger than Simmons in a primary and potentially more of a threat to Blumenthal.

Still, both Republicans start far behind Blumenthal, in the polls and in handicapping. A four-term statewide officeholder, Blumenthal is a smart Democrat in a Democratic state. He’ll raise plenty of cash and begins with a clear advantage in the race.

In California, voters aren’t particularly enthusiastic about Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). She’s a polarizing political figure and running at or below 50 percent in ballot tests against either Assemblyman Chuck DeVore or businesswoman Carly Fiorina, two of the leading Republicans in the race.

Still, DeVore doesn’t have the breadth of appeal or money to defeat Boxer, while Fiorina has plenty of baggage.

Boxer’s prospects would take a hit, of course, if California Republicans were to nominate former Rep. Tom Campbell, a moderate who would have considerable statewide appeal — if he could accumulate the resources for an expensive statewide race. But Campbell’s past fundraising isn’t encouraging.

For now, Boxer’s weakness does not yet translate into a serious Republican opportunity.

In Wisconsin, some polling has shown Sen. Russ Feingold (D) having trouble in a race against former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). The only problem is that Thompson isn’t now running for the Senate, though he is considering it. And Feingold, who voted against the Troubled Asset Relief Program, is a savvy politician who has developed a reputation for independence.

The main Republican contender currently is Terrence Wall, a prosperous real estate developer who put $300,000 into his campaign but hasn’t paid state taxes in nine of the past 10 years. Democrats apparently have other tax ammunition to use against Wall.

When I interviewed Wall recently, he refused to give his date of birth. He only offered the year of his birth (and his age), apparently because he is concerned about identity theft. Wall, in other words, has a long way to go before he is a serious threat to Feingold, even in a bad year for Democrats.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) is another smart politician, and while Republican insiders hope to recruit someone who can test the Senator, they don’t have a formidable challenger yet. Until they do, there isn’t any reason to see Washington as a GOP takeover opportunity.

Obviously, Sen. Evan Bayh’s (D-Ind.) sudden announcement Monday that he will not seek re-election improves GOP prospects in that state and therefore nationally.

While some polling showed the Democrat at risk, a recent Research 2000 poll for the liberal Web site the Daily Kos showed him leading former Sen. Dan Coats by 20 points. Bayh’s political savvy, strong connection to Hoosier voters and $13 million bank account would have made him a formidable foe for any Republican challenger, so his exit automatically improves GOP prospects, especially given the overall landscape of the election cycle.

Bayh’s retirement puts an eighth Democratic seat at considerable risk, forcing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to be even more on the defensive than it was. But in another sense, it doesn’t change things fundamentally. For even after Bayh’s retirement, a Republican gain of 10 seats is more hype than reality.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on February 16, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

Indiana Senate Moved to Toss-Up

Democratic Senator Evan Bayh’s sudden and surprising decision not to seek reelection this year is another blow to Democratic Senate prospects.

Bayh surely was the strongest candidate Indiana Democrats could have nominated – if only because of his years of proven electoral success and his $13 million campaign account – and an open seat is much more difficult for Democrats to hold in the current political environment.

But with former Sen. Dan Coats now leading a relatively weak Republican field, and with the Democratic nomination far from being decided, this race hasn’t really taken shape. At least two Indiana Democratic U.S. House members receive mention as possible Senate candidates, Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, both of whom represent districts at the southern end of the state.

Former Gov. Joe Kernan and former Lieutenant Gov. Kathy Davis (who was picked by Kernan to fill a vacancy) are also mentioned. Davis was state budget director under then-Gov. Evan Bayh. Kernan, who was elected lieutenant governor in 1996 and 2000 before succeeding to the state’s top post following the death of Gov. Frank O’Bannon (D) in 2003, lost his bid for a full term in 2004 to Republican Mitch Daniels.

But some Democrats are pushing for a nominee without a voting record for Republicans to pick apart, with millionaire businesswoman Bren Simon, 66, mentioned by party insiders. She is president of the family’s property management company and a director of the family’s charitable trust.

Simon is the widow of the late Melvin Simon, who died in September. The 82-year old Simon’s estate is valued at over $1 billion, and includes Simon Property Group (and its more than 300 malls) and the Indiana Pacers.

But Bren Simon is in the middle of a nasty family battle over her late husband’s will, with his children by an earlier marriage challenging his new will of February, 2009, which allegedly increased Bren’s share of the estate.

Given today’s developments, the national landscape and uncertainties about the race, we are moving the Indiana Senate race from Narrow Advantage for Democrats to Toss-Up. But clearly, Bayh’s decision gives Republicans another excellent takeover opportunity.

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

• Lincoln (D-AR)
  
• Reid (D-NV)
  
• ND Open (Dorgan, D)
• DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)

• KY Open (Bunning, R)
  
• MO Open (Bond, R)
• NH Open (Gregg, R)
• OH Open (Voinovich, R)
• IL Open (Burris, D)
• IN Open (Bayh, D) *
• Bennet (D-CO)
• Specter (D-PA)
  

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)

• Burr (R-NC)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

• Vitter (R-LA)
  
• FL Open (LeMieux, R)
• CT Open (Dodd, D)
  

Currently Safe (11 R, 10 D)

• Bennett (R-UT)
• Coburn (R-OK)
• Crapo (R-ID)
• DeMint (R-SC)
• Grassley (R-IA)
  
• Isakson (R-GA)
• McCain (R-AZ)
• Murkowski (R-AK)
• Shelby (R-AL)
• Thune (R-SD)
• KS Open (Brownback, R)
• Boxer (D-CA)
• Feingold (D-WI)
• Gillibrand (D-NY)
• Inouye (D-HI)
• Leahy (D-VT)
• Mikulski (D-MD)
• Murray (D-WA)
• Schumer (D-NY)
• Wyden (D-OR)

IN Sen Moved to Narrow Advantage for Bayh

Former Sen. Dan Coats' (R) likely entry into the Indiana Senate race puts another seat into play for Republicans.

Coats last served in the Senate a decade ago and Democrats are already attacking him for living in Virginia since then, but the Republican should be a credible alternative for voters who are dissatisfied with the direction of the country and the party in power. Coats will need to put together his campaign quickly in order to compete with the $13 million Sen. Evan Bayh (D) had in the bank at the end of the year. But this has suddenly become a very interesting race. Move from Currently Safe to Narrow Advantage for the Incumbent Party.

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

• Lincoln (D-AR)
  
• Reid (D-NV)
  
• ND Open (Dorgan, D)
• DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 3 D)

• KY Open (Bunning, R)
  
• MO Open (Bond, R)
• NH Open (Gregg, R)
• OH Open (Voinovich, R)
• IL Open (Burris, D)
• Bennet (D-CO)
• Specter (D-PA)
  

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 1 D)

• Burr (R-NC)
• Bayh (D-IN) *
  

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

• Vitter (R-LA)
  
• FL Open (LeMieux, R)
• CT Open (Dodd, D)
  

Currently Safe (11 R, 10 D)

• Bennett (R-UT)
• Coburn (R-OK)
• Crapo (R-ID)
• DeMint (R-SC)
• Grassley (R-IA)
  
• Isakson (R-GA)
• McCain (R-AZ)
• Murkowski (R-AK)
• Shelby (R-AL)
• Thune (R-SD)
• KS Open (Brownback, R)
• Boxer (D-CA)
• Feingold (D-WI)
• Gillibrand (D-NY)
• Inouye (D-HI)
• Leahy (D-VT)
• Mikulski (D-MD)
• Murray (D-WA)
• Schumer (D-NY)
• Wyden (D-OR)

Don’t Hold Your Breath for an Anti-Incumbent Election

By Stuart Rothenberg

Voters are angry, especially at Washington, D.C., and with politicians. They are unhappy with both parties. All that is generally true.

But voters’ dissatisfaction with those in charge doesn’t mean that November is likely to be an “anti-incumbent election.” In fact, it almost certainly won’t. We never, or almost never, have true anti-incumbent elections, as I have noted before.

If Republican incumbents have problems, it will be in their primaries.

In Texas, Gov. Rick Perry looked to have enough momentum to pull away from his GOP primary opponent, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. But that hasn’t happened. The Senator hasn’t been a scintillating candidate, but she is still very much in the game against the governor, according to knowledgeable insiders.

Perry won re-election four years ago with only 39 percent of the vote in a four-way race. While conservatives have rallied behind him, there are many in the Republican Party who don’t like his smugness and his shoot-from-the-hip style.

Arizona’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who became the state’s top officeholder when her predecessor joined the Obama administration, faces a roomful of primary challengers in her bid for a full term, and her prospects are uncertain. She inherited a terrible budget situation and was forced to select from a number of unappealing choices.

Indiana Rep. Dan Burton, South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis and Utah Sen. Bob Bennett also face challenges that have developed to a stage that make them worth watching.

Nonincumbent Republicans who have the mantle of the establishment are also vulnerable given the current environment.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the state’s GOP Senate nomination, is the most obvious example. He faces a very difficult fight against former state Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who is running as the insurgent despite his previous position.

The same dynamic is taking place in New Hampshire, where conservative Ovide Lamontagne and two businessmen could give former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte a migraine in the Republican Senate primary.

And in Kentucky, Rand Paul, son of Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul (a former presidential candidate), is running as an outsider for the Republican Senate nomination against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the favorite of virtually the entire state and the national Republican Party. GOP insiders think Grayson can win the primary, but they are far from certain about the outcome.

But if those incumbents (and establishment-backed nonincumbents) get past their primaries, they will then benefit from the public mood, which currently looks likely to punish Democrats at the ballot box.

A rash of recent polling, much of it paid for by liberal Web sites Daily Kos and Firedoglake, show Democratic incumbents in horrible shape — about where Republicans were in 2006 and 2008.

Surveys over the past couple of weeks have shown former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) ahead of Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) by 8 points, Andy Harris (R) leading Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-Md.) by 13 points, former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) leading Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.) by 10 points and former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) leading Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) by a whopping 17 points.

In addition, Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) leads unknown challenger Randy Altschuler (R) by only 2 points, while controversial Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is drawing 55 percent in an early ballot test against state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D).

Even if only most of these results are close to being accurate, they suggest that other Democratic House incumbents are seeing significant erosion in their numbers from what those same numbers were even a year ago.

Over in the Senate, Democratic numbers are equally terrible.

Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Nevada Sen. Harry Reid are sitting with unfavorable ratings larger than their favorable ratings. Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who would be crushed if this year’s political environment resembled that of the 2006 or 2008 cycle, is running even or ahead of his potential Democratic opponents, and Democratic prospects over the past year have deteriorated in Ohio and Missouri.

Polling in North Carolina is particularly instructive. Recent surveys continue to show roughly equal numbers of respondents approving and disapproving of the job Sen. Richard Burr (R) is doing. But even with those mediocre numbers, Burr is holding clear (if unintimidating) leads over his potential general election opponents.

The bottom line on all of this seems pretty clear: Voters are not enamored of incumbents of either party, and GOP incumbents or “establishment” candidates facing strong “outsider” primary opponents could be in for more rough sledding than they would normally need to expect.

But when the general election rolls around, unless there is a significant change in the national mood, voter dissatisfaction will be aimed overwhelmingly at the candidates of one party. And that is why Democratic insiders are privately raising their own estimates of party losses.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on January 25, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Ohio River Valley Lacks Competition

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Three years ago, the Ohio River Valley was the epicenter of the battle for control of Congress. But in just two election cycles, the long swath of Republican territory has moved from red to blue to virtually uncompetitive on the Congressional level.

Inspired by a spring 2006 column by Roll Call contributing writer Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call alumni Chris Cillizza and Jim VandeHei of the Washington Post embarked on the “Ohio River Ramble” that fall, posting dispatches from nine contiguous and competitive districts that run from Evansville, Ind., to Wheeling, W.Va.

At the time, Republicans held seven of the nine districts, and George W. Bush carried all but one (Kentucky’s 3rd) in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. But the competitive nature of the races and the fact that the GOP was playing defense foreshadowed the Democratic tidal wave that was about to hit.

Now, Republicans control only two of the nine seats. And with few recruits and more limited resources, only one of the districts even looks competitive in 2010 at this point.

There has been plenty of attention paid to the extinction of House Republicans in the Northeast. But if the GOP is going to win back the majority anytime soon — as House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) was the latest to predict — it’s difficult to see the party gaining 41 seats without making significant inroads in Middle America territory such as the Ohio River Valley.

Republicans are actively recruiting in Ohio’s 18th district, but the party has struggled to find a top-notch candidate ever since then-Rep. Bob Ney (R) pleaded guilty to corruption-related charges and left Congress under a cloud of scandal in November 2006. Rep. Zack Space (D), won the open-seat race to succeed Ney and then easily disposed of his little-known GOP opponent in 2008.

“Republicans aren’t going to take back the majority without this district,” one GOP operative said about Ohio’s 18th. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won there with 52 percent in 2008, and Bush won 57 percent in 2004 and 55 percent in 2000.

The Ohio River territory demonstrates that developing a list of targets is much more sophisticated than matching a district’s presidential preference against the current Member’s party identification. If it were that simple, Republicans would clearly have more opportunities to go on offense in the region, since McCain carried all but two of the nine districts — Ohio’s 1st and Kentucky’s 3rd.

Whether it’s the current political environment, the strength of the incumbent or the threat of losing the seat in two years because of reapportionment and redistricting, Republicans have simply come up empty in terms of recruiting in many of these districts. Currently, GOP strategists are most excited about the opportunity to reclaim Ohio’s 1st district, where President Barack Obama won by 11 points but former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is running to reclaim the seat that he lost in 2008.

Chabot was one of the Republicans’ few success stories in the area in 2006, as he narrowly held on to win re-election.

In 2006, Democrats won four of the seven GOP-held seats in the region as part of their 30-seat pickup nationwide.

Meanwhile, Republicans were unable to capitalize on the flurry of ethical questions surrounding Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) at the time, and the veteran lawmaker won re-election.

The GOP also missed an opportunity when then-state Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) failed to gather 50 valid signatures to qualify for the primary ballot in Ohio's 6th district open-seat race. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee stepped in to help Wilson win the primary as a write-in candidate and then win the general, and he was re-elected with 62 percent.

Republican Mike Sodrel and Democrat Baron Hill faced off four consecutive times in Indiana’s 9th district. But after Hill defeated Sodrel by 5 points in 2006 and 20 points in 2008, Democrats are optimistic that he will have an easier road to re-election in 2010. And in the neighboring 8th district, now-Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) demolished then-Rep. John Hostettler (R) by 22 points in 2006 and then cruised to a 30-point win in 2008.

All four districts went for Bush twice and then McCain, yet now there is only a faint pulse of competitiveness.

“John McCain carried 49 districts that are currently represented by a Democrat,” National Republican Congressional Committee Communications Director Ken Spain said. “Our goal is to put a number of those seats in play and create new opportunities in places where we feel we have strong candidates looking at running.”

But a big part of the Republicans’ problem is the strength of the Democratic incumbents.

“The No. 1 factor is candidate quality,” said Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. “And we have really good Democratic candidates in those districts.” Yang works for Ellsworth and Hill, and also worked on state Sen. David Boswell’s (D) unsuccessful run in Kentucky’s 2nd district last year.

Republican recruitment prospects against Wilson, Ellsworth, Hill and Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) are dim, if not dormant. Republicans may find a candidate to run against Mollohan, who was unopposed in 2008.

“We may have a better opportunity in a more marginal district where the incumbent is soft,” admitted one GOP strategist, who also explained that the longer these incumbents go without serious challenges, the more difficult they will be to defeat in the future.

With multiple, inefficient media markets, advertising in the Ohio River Valley districts can be an expensive affair for the DCCC and the NRCC.

In 2006, the two campaign committees combined to spend more than $25 million in independent expenditures in the nine races. Two years later, the two parties spent less than $6 million in the same nine districts, as Republicans had less money and the races became less competitive. Even less money is likely to be spent in the region in 2010.

As the pendulum decidedly swung toward Democrats in the past two cycles, there have been a couple of bright spots for Republicans. Democrats have targeted Kentucky’s 2nd district twice, but then-Rep. Ron Lewis (R) turned back state Rep. Mike Weaver (D) in 2006, and now-Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) held the seat when Lewis retired in 2008.

Rep. Geoff Davis (R-Ky.) has solidified his position over the last three years in the 4th district. After losing his initial race to then-Rep. Ken Lucas (D) in 2002, Davis won the open-seat race two years later when Lucas retired. In 2006, Davis faced off against Lucas, but the Republican prevailed easily. Last cycle, Davis won with more than 60 percent of the vote, and he’s not at risk in 2010.

Republicans have also held Ohio’s 2nd district and West Virginia’s 2nd district despite Democratic attempts to target GOP Reps. Jean Schmidt and Shelley Moore Capito, respectively.

House Republicans have not made any one region their top priority in 2010, instead focusing on fielding a diverse crop of challengers and trying to regain strength across the country. It’s psychologically necessary for the morale of the party, according to one House GOP operative.

Still, many Republicans acknowledge they face a significant challenge overall.

“We have a problem everywhere,” one GOP strategist said.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on June 18, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

Even in a Wave, Some Get Just What They Deserve

By Stuart Rothenberg

It isn’t easy being a candidate for Congress. It takes an unnatural amount of time and effort to put together a winning campaign, and even then, circumstances can conspire against a candidate who does everything right.

But being a confident candidate, even one with a credible campaign, doesn’t justify absurd claims and press releases. Some campaigns simply are in denial when it comes to what is important or what is possible, and it is those campaigns that drive me crazy.

Wealthy Democrat Jim Harlan was convinced he could beat Republican Rep. Steve Scalise in Louisiana’s 1st district, even though the district is the state’s most educated, most affluent and most Republican. George W. Bush drew a stunning 71 percent in the district in 2004, an even stronger showing than he had in Wyoming.

Harlan put more than $1.2 million from his own pocket into the race, and his campaign directed some of the most ridiculous attacks of the cycle against his opponent. For example, the Harlan campaign criticized Scalise for misleading voters by claiming he had a 100 percent voting record, even though he did have a perfect attendance record. “Scalise actually missed 1,453 votes in the 110th Congress before taking the seat in May,” charged a bizarre Harlan press release.

In the end, while Harlan’s campaign bragged about being added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program and touted a late September Kitchens Group poll showing Scalise with an 11-point lead, the Democratic challenger drew an embarrassing 34 percent of the vote, losing by 32 points. He never had a chance, but his campaign acted as if a win was likely.

Then there was Steve Greenberg, a Chicago- area Republican who promised that he would beat moderate Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean in Illinois’ 8th district. Greenberg got plenty of ink for being a one-time professional hockey player, and his family’s wealth was supposed to assure that he’d batter Bean with enough TV spots to win in the Republican-leaning suburban district. He was one of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s early hot recruits.

But if Greenberg ran a quality campaign, it must have been in a parallel universe where everything is opposite from this one. While Bean raised $3 million for her re-election effort, Greenberg didn’t even reach $1 million, and he put only $156,000 of his own money into a race that quickly turned from potentially competitive to a yawner.

Unlike Greenberg, New Jersey Democrat Dennis Shulman didn’t give up. Shulman, a blind rabbi and psychologist, acted as if articles about him and his candidacy in Time magazine and the New Yorker, as well as an endorsement from the mayor of New York City, made him a celebrity and a serious threat to incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Garrett. They didn’t. Most people in his district don’t read those magazines or care what Michael Bloomberg thinks.

Garrett’s district strongly leans Republican, and Bush won it with 57 percent in 2004, running more than 11 points ahead of his statewide total. Credible Republican statewide candidates always carry the district even if they are getting pounded statewide.

Despite all the self-generated hype and over-the-top campaign rhetoric, Shulman drew 42 percent against Garrett — almost 2 points worse than Paul Aronsohn (D) did two years earlier and only 1,300 votes more than 2004 Democratic nominee Anne Wolfe did.

Then there is Republican John Stone, a conservative activist and former Congressional staffer, who got slightly more than one-third of the vote in Georgia’s 12th district and blamed his loss to incumbent Rep. John Barrow (D) on the NRCC.

Stone’s own fundraising stunk, and he had no chance in the current environment to win in a 45 percent African-American district that was carried by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) four years ago. But that didn’t stop him from trying to avoid responsibility for his own failure.

The case of Indiana hopeful Mike Montagano (D) is in a class all by itself. Like a few other allegedly serious hopefuls I’ve met over the years, he was short on credentials and maturity. Even worse, he either couldn’t or wouldn’t take positions on issues.

Montagano, who received considerable financial help from his father, clearly was in over his head in this race, and his ability to win 40 percent of the vote says something about incumbent Rep. Mark Souder’s limited appeal and district voters’ willingness to vote for any Democrat on the ballot.

Finally, we have the case of Nick Leibham (D), a young, appealing challenger to incumbent Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.) in a district that seems to have a ceiling for Democrats in competitive federal races that is below 50 percent, no matter the circumstances.

Leibham assured us that he was the guy to knock off Bilbray, even though Kerry drew 44 percent in the district and Francine Busby drew 45 percent and 43 percent in the ’06 special and ’06 general election, respectively.

The special election should have been a particularly good opportunity for Democrats in the district, since the seat was left open following Republican Rep. Duke Cunningham’s resignation, plea bargain and incarceration. But after a spirited campaign against a Republican who had been a lobbyist and in an environment when Republicans around the country were in terror, Bilbray beat Busby by 7,200 votes (4.6 points).

This year, Leibham drew 45 percent against Bilbray, just what Busby did in that special.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on November 17, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Indiana 3: Democrats Claim Souder Is Vulnerable — Again

By Nathan L. Gonzales

A new poll done for young Democratic attorney Mike Montagano’s campaign claims that voters in Indiana’s 3rd district are tired of their incumbent, Rep. Mark Souder (R). But the results show Montagano still has some considerable ground to make up, and the polling looks similar to two years ago, when Souder ended up winning by 8 points.

The just-released Sept. 9-10 Cooper & Secrest Associates poll showed Souder leading Montagano 50 percent to 37 percent in a general election matchup. That’s an improvement from April, when the Democrat trailed by 27 points, but Montagano has been on television since, boosting his name identification.

Recently, the problem for Democrats hasn’t been fundraising or keeping Souder near 50 percent. The problem is winning the district.

Two years ago, Democratic polling at the end of July showed Souder with a 50 percent-to-32 percent lead, and it found almost half of the voters willing to elect “someone new” to Congress. A late October poll by the nonpartisan Research 2000 showed the Congressman with an underwhelming 52 percent-to-40 percent advantage as well.

On Election Day, Souder prevailed over Democrat Tom Hayhurst 54 percent to 46 percent.

Montagano also likes to boast about his fundraising this year, compared with Souder’s lackluster totals. Through June 30, the challenger had more cash on hand than the incumbent, $352,000 to $323,000, and held his own in fundraising, $468,000 to Souder’s $559,000.

But the money discrepancy is no surprise. Two years ago, Hayhurst outspent Souder $708,000 to $642,000 and it wasn’t enough.

It’s unlikely Souder will ever have stellar poll numbers, and Democrats picked up three seats in the Hoosier State last cycle, but Democrats have dozens of better opportunities than Indiana’s 3rd. Montagano remains on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s list of “Emerging Races” this cycle, meaning that the contest has not yet broken through to the top tier of competitive “Red to Blue” races.


This story first appeared on RollCall.com on September 12, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Beyond Congressional Battleground, Close Gubernatorial Races Lurk

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Even with the tightening of the presidential race and renewed GOP excitement, Democrats are still widely expected to gain seats in the House and the Senate in November. But Republicans could actually see a net gain of seats in this year’s small crop of gubernatorial races.

Only 11 states are electing a governor this year, and really only four of those races are up for grabs. The competitive races are divided evenly between the two parties, with the most likely outcome ranging from Democrats gaining a governorship to Republicans gaining one.

North Carolina is proving to be a battleground up and down the ballot. Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) are battling for the Tar Heel State’s electoral votes, and Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) is in the fight of her political life for a second term.

Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) are locked in a tight race to replace outgoing Gov. Mike Easley (D). Poll results over the past three weeks range from each candidate being up by a couple points to a dead heat. Historically, Republicans aren’t usually in this position.

Perdue won the Democratic nomination by a convincing margin over a well-financed statewide officeholder. McCrory got into the race late, but he overtook the underwhelming GOP field with high name identification and a large geographic base.

North Carolina has had only two Republican governors in the past 70 years, but if McCrory can put together the money to compete in a state with expensive TV markets, he could make this a race until the end.

In Missouri, Republicans caught a break when unpopular Gov. Matt Blunt (R) decided not to run for a second term. Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) subsequently won a bitter primary, and Republicans are still healing their wounds.

State Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) has yet to put the race away, despite a divided GOP and the fact that he’s been running for more than two and a half years. An Aug. 13-17 Public Policy Polling (D) survey and a July 29-31 SurveyUSA poll showed Nixon with an identical advantage over Hulshof, though he was leading with less than 50 percent. Nixon still has the edge, but it looks to be a close race in a state McCain should win.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) made some unpopular decisions during his first term as governor, and he once looked like a prime Democratic target. His Democratic opponent, former Rep. Jill Long Thompson, narrowly won her primary (50.6 percent to 49.4 percent) against a wealthy opponent, but she’s having difficulty keeping up with Daniels in the polls and in fundraising.

An Aug. 29-30 Howey-Gauge poll had the governor ahead 53 percent to 35 percent. Almost two weeks earlier, SurveyUSA showed Daniels up 52 percent to 38 percent. And a July poll for the governor’s campaign had him up by 18 points. He’s not out of the woods, but Daniels is a good campaigner and it will be tough for Thompson to set the tone without more resources.

Meanwhile in Washington, Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) can’t shake her 2004 opponent, former state Sen. Dino Rossi (R). The two battled to a near draw four years ago, with Gregoire prevailing by 133 votes. Almost four years later, the race remains virtually unchanged.

Gregoire and Rossi were within 3 points of each other in all but one of six public polls since July. And because of Washington’s new “top two” primary, the two faced the voters on Aug. 19. Of course, Gregoire edged out Rossi, 48 percent to 46 percent.

Rossi outspent the governor in August, but Gregoire should enjoy a financial advantage during the stretch run. Obama is expected to carry the state easily, but Rossi is certainly still in the game, and that’s all Republicans could hope for at this point.

Finally, in Delaware, state Treasurer Jack Markell proved that “change” is still a potent message. His opponent, Lt. Gov. John Carney, had the support of outgoing Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D), organized labor and most of the establishment. But Markell prevailed in Tuesday’s Democratic primary and is the heavy favorite in November.


This story first appeared on Roll Call.com on September 12, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Colts Coach Favors Obama

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Once criticized for speaking to a conservative Christian group, Indianapolis Colts head coach Tony Dungy favors Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in the presidential election.

“I was an Obama guy in the primaries,” Dungy said in an interview with Kenny Mayne in the Aug. 11 issue of ESPN the Magazine. “I remember hearing Dr. King’s ‘I have a dream’ speech when I was 7, but I never thought I’d see an African-American with an opportunity to win the presidency. So this has been stunning to me.”

“I haven’t made up my mind, but I’m definitely leaning toward Obama,” Dungy said.

On one level, the preference isn’t surprising, since both men are high-profile African-Americans. And with Indiana being talked about as a potential battleground state, few individuals are more popular than Dungy outside the sport of basketball.

But the coach’s nod doesn’t come without a potential downside for Obama.

Back in March 2007, Dungy was criticized, particularly by gay activists, for accepting an award from the Indiana Family Institute, specifically because of their opposition to same-sex marriage. In advance of his appearance, some individuals wanted the Super Bowl-winning coach do disavow the conservative Christian group’s views. But Dungy, who isn’t shy about his faith, did precisely the opposite.

“I’m on the Lord’s side, and I appreciate IFI for the stance their taking, and I embrace that stance, okay, and that’s important,” Dungy said in his speech.

“Family is important, and that’s what we’re trying to support. We’re not anti anything else, we’re not trying to downgrade anyone else, hate anyone else, but we’re trying to promote the family, family values, the Lord’s way, just like I’m trying to win on the football field the Lord’s way. No different,” Dungy added.

Obama already has strained relations with the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community, whether it is rumors about him choosing former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn (D) to be his running mate or campaigning with gospel entertainer Donnie McClurkin in South Carolina early in the primary season.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on August 4, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Change in Congress Comes in All Ages and Sizes

By Nathan L. Gonzales

While age is an underlying issue in the presidential contest, Democrats have candidates young and old running as change agents at the Congressional level.

Former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (D), 70, is a strong challenger to Rep. Sam Graves (R), 44, in Missouri’s 6th district. Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche (D) just turned 65, but is in a strong position to win the Republican open seat in Louisiana’s 4th district.

In New Jersey’s 5th, blind rabbi Dennis Shulman (D), 58, is a longer-shot challenger to Rep. Scott Garrett (R). And in Florida’s 21st district, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez (D), 59, is giving Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) his first real race in years.

Arizona Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) was a 67-year-old freshman in the 110th Congress, after defeating Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth last cycle.

On the flip side, Democrats also have a number of candidates born right around the time Jimmy Carter was elected president. Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia (D), 30, stands a good chance of coming to Congress next year as he tries to take over the very competitive Republican open seat in Minnesota’s 3rd district.

In Colorado’s 2nd district, wealthy businessman Jared Polis, 33, will come to Congress if he can make it out of the crowded Democratic primary on Aug. 12. Iraq War veteran Jon Powers (D), 29, also faces a competitive primary in New York’s 26th district. But if he’s the nominee, Powers will also face a general election fight.

Glenn Nye (D), 33, is hoping to knock off Rep. Thelma Drake (R) in Virginia’s 2nd district, while attorney Nick Leibham (D), 34, is hoping to oust Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) in California’s 50th.

André Carson, 33, was elected to Congress earlier this year in a special election to replace his grandmother, the late Rep. Julia Carson (D), in Indiana’s7th district. He defeated 30-year-old state Rep. Jon Elrod (R), who recently announced he was dropping out of the general election race.

Republicans have their own roster of youthful candidates. Duncan D. Hunter (R), 31, is a virtual lock to replace his father in California’s 52nd district.

Illinois state Rep. Aaron Schock (R), 27, could be the youngest Member of the next Congress. He’s favored in the fall, but he still has to win downstate Illinois’s 18th district seat, which is being vacated by Rep. Ray LaHood (R).

In New York’s 1st district, 28-year-old Iraq War veteran Lee Zeldin (R) is a long shot against incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop (D).

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on June 19, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.