If Republicans Fail to Win the House, Look Behind the ‘Eight’ Ball

By Stuart Rothenberg

I’ve always said that the party campaign committees usually get too much credit for success and too much blame for failure, so I’m certainly not pointing fingers in this column. But if Republicans fall a handful of seats short of taking over the House in the fall midterms, it could be because of the party’s inability to recruit strong candidates in a short list of districts with highly vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

North Carolina’s 8th. Freshman Rep. Larry Kissell owes his membership in the Congressional fraternity to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which dragged him across the finish line in 2008. But if Kissell wins a second term, he ought to send a thank-you note to Tar Heel Republicans for failing to find a top-tier challenger in the best Republican year since 1994.

The DCCC spent just under $2.4 million to help elect Kissell — almost $1 million more than he spent on his own campaign. That made Kissell the second-largest beneficiary of DCCC independent expenditures, right behind New Hampshire Rep. Carol Shea-Porter.

The district, which stretches from Charlotte to Fayetteville and includes lots of rural territory in between, went narrowly for President Barack Obama in 2008 (52 percent) and more substantially for George W. Bush in 2004 (54 percent).

National Republican insiders aren’t writing off this race just yet, but they don’t have the challenger they once hoped for.

GOP insiders first tried to woo businessman Mike Minter, a former all-pro with the NFL’s Carolina Panthers, into the race. He ultimately decided against a bid. Then the National Republican Congressional Committee tried to coax former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory into the contest. McCrory had recently lost a bid for governor and seriously considered the Congressional race. But he, too, said no.

The Republican field includes businessman Tim D’Annunzio, who calls Kissell a “socialist” in a video on his Web site and boasts endorsements from former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.), activist Bay Buchanan, former sportscaster Harold Johnson and businessman Hal Jordan, who narrowly lost a state legislative race in 2006.

The favorite for the GOP nomination is Lou Huddleston, who spent three decades in the Army, retiring as a colonel in 2003. He, too, lost a state legislative race, in 2008, drawing 38 percent.

The Republican nominee may somehow ride a massive political wave to victory against Kissell. But unless that happens, this district will be the best example of a wasted GOP opportunity against a politically unimpressive, vulnerable House Democrat.

Georgia’s 8th. If Larry Kissell is at one end of the campaign quality spectrum, Rep. Jim Marshall (D) is at the other. Yet both constitute missed Republican opportunities.

Marshall is smart, cocky and politically astute. He got clobbered in his first run for Congress in 2000, but came back two years later to win an open seat. In 2006, he held off a former Congressman (who had represented part of the territory when the state’s districts were drawn differently) in a nail-biter.

Marshall defeated retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Rick Goddard (R) comfortably in 2008, 57 percent to 43 percent, and that may help explain why no top-tier challenger has stepped forward for 2010.

All of this is disappointing for GOP strategists given the nature of the district and the developing national Republican wave. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried the district with 56 percent in 2008, and Bush carried it in 2004 with 61 percent of the vote. In a year when voters may want to send a message to Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Republicans ought to have a candidate who can tap that voter sentiment in a district like Marshall’s. So far, they don’t.

Illinois’ 8th. Rep. Melissa Bean (D) is a tough adversary, like Marshall. She’s focused, politically astute and running in an expensive media market. But given her district and the kind of political year it may be, it’s hard to believe that Republicans came up empty-handed against her in 2010.

Her opponent this year is Joe Walsh (R), a favorite of tea party activists and an unsuccessful candidate for Congress (against then-Rep. Sidney Yates) in 1996 and for the state Legislature in 1998.

I don’t know if anyone can beat Bean this time, but her 6-point victory against David McSweeney (R) in a horrendous year for Republicans and her subsequent 20-point win over inept challenger Steve Greenberg (R) in a year when Obama was sweeping the state shouldn’t be enough to earn her a cakewalk in 2010. It has, however.

Wisconsin’s 8th. Finally, Republicans can’t be thrilled by their field against Rep. Steve Kagen (D). State Rep. Roger Roth, whose uncle served in Congress, could develop into a credible threat to Kagen, as could businessman Reid Ribble. Former state Rep. Terri McCormick and Door County Supervisor Marc Savard hope to do the same.

But no matter how you slice it, the Republican field in this GOP-leaning district doesn’t look particularly intimidating.

While McCain drew only 45 percent here in 2008, Bush won it with 55 percent four years earlier. Kagen barely won the open seat in 2006 but won it comfortably two years later. Still, given the national landscape, the district’s bent and Kagen’s personal style, a strong GOP challenger would put this district into play.

Right now, it’s not clear that the field includes a challenger who can win, though in a big Republican wave, even the current crop of contenders can’t be dismissed.


This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on April 15, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Georgia Governor: Roy Barnes Hopes for a Successful Second Act

By Stuart Rothenberg

The last time I saw Roy Barnes was the day before Election Day in 2002. The Democrat was hobnobbing with CNN executives, reporters and producers in a hip Atlanta condo.

I’m not certain that Barnes, who was then governor of Georgia, knew that he was less than 24 hours from suffering a stunning re-election defeat. I know I was surprised, as were many others, including some Democrats who talked about Barnes as a presidential candidate in 2004.

Now, Barnes is ready to make another gubernatorial run, hoping that changed circumstances and a considerable dose of new-found humility will help him win a second term as Georgia’s chief executive.

Barnes’ defeat more than six years ago can be traced to his controversial decision to change the state flag, his alienation of state teachers and his inability to resolve the state’s transportation problems.

National Democratic strategists were euphoric at the news that Barnes wanted to make a comeback. The Democratic field without him was far from intimidating, and Barnes’ campaign skills and past fundraising success has most state political observers rating him the early favorite in the Democratic race. Polling substantiates that.

Also in the race is state Attorney General Thurbert Baker, state House Minority Leader DuBose Porter and Lt. Gen. David Poythress, a retired Georgia adjutant general who also served as secretary of state and state labor commissioner. But observers are skeptical that any of them can raise enough money to compete with the former governor.

Baker, who is black, would seem to be a formidable opponent in the primary. African-Americans, after all, account for more than 45 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, and Baker has not had a difficult race since he was appointed to his office in 1997 by then-Gov. Zell Miller (D).

But Baker has compiled a generally pro-business record, and he angered African- American leaders when he appealed a lower court decision that reduced the charge against and ordered the release of Genarlow Wilson, a 17-year-old high school athlete who was convicted of felony aggravated child molestation for having oral sex with a 15-year-old girl at a party. (The Georgia Supreme Court ultimately ruled that the 10-year sentence was “grossly disproportionate” and released Wilson.)

Unfortunately for Barnes, the primary is likely to be his easier challenge.

While the GOP field is not intimidating, the state has changed considerably since Barnes’ last campaign, and it is not to his advantage.

When Barnes was first elected governor, Democrats controlled both chambers of the state’s General Assembly and had won 14 of the previous 15 gubernatorial contests. But the GOP made considerable gains in the 2002 elections, and shortly after Election Day, a handful of Democrats switched parties to give the GOP a majority in the state Senate. Republicans won the Georgia House in 2004, the same year they captured a second U.S. Senate seat — putting two Republicans in the Senate for the first time since the passage of the 17th Amendment (which transferred Senators’ selection from the state legislatures to a popular election).

Georgia has now become a red state, with a Republican governor, two GOP Senators and solid Republican legislative majorities. Democrat Barack Obama drew 47 percent of the vote in last year’s presidential race.

Following the surprising exit of Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle from the race, the frontrunners for the Republican nomination appear to be Rep. Nathan Deal and Secretary of State Karen Handel. State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine and state Senate President Pro Tem Eric Johnson are regarded as long shots. Oxendine, who was first elected to his office in 1994, leads in some polling but has been dogged with ethics controversies and isn’t seen as the likely GOP nominee.

Observers see Deal as a more formidable general election candidate, though they agree that his service in Washington, D.C., may not be an asset given Congress’ image.

Handel, who earned a GED and worked in the nation’s capital for Hallmark Cards and later in the Bush-Quayle White House before moving to Georgia and being elected to the Fulton County Commission, is regarded as less prepared to stand toe-to-toe with Barnes in a debate.

Democrats hope that, while partisan trends in the state have worked against Barnes, the state’s current problems will work to his advantage. They note that the state’s economy is an albatross around the GOP’s neck, and Georgia Republicans have failed to deliver on their promises to deal with the state’s transportation problems.

Republican legislators recently cut $3 billion in spending, and party leaders may need to call a special legislative session to cut another $1 billion from the state’s budget.

Barnes’ prospects will depend on both the strength of the Republican nominee and the quality of the former governor’s campaign. Some observers are concerned that while Barnes talks of having changed his approach (by listening more to others) and promises to run a very different campaign than he did in 2002, he is surrounding himself with many of the same people who served him as governor and who worked for him in his last race.

Veteran consultant Ray Strother, for example, will come out of retirement to consult, while Chris Carpenter, who was deputy chief of staff during Barnes’ term as governor, will serve as campaign manager.

The state’s Republican bent means that Barnes starts off as an underdog. But depending on who wins the GOP nomination, how the state’s finances look 15 months from now, and whether Barnes can control himself and not sneer at his adversaries, the former governor may find himself with an opportunity to prove he has learned his lessons.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on June 25, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Democrats Face Turnout Challenges in Key Districts in 2010

By Stuart Rothenberg

Democratic political strategists know that for all of their party’s advantages next year, they’ll almost certainly have significant turnout issues in more than a half-dozen highly competitive districts — even if President Barack Obama remains popular.

“Last cycle, our challenge was to make certain newly energized Obama voters continue to vote Democratic down the ballot. This time, our challenge is getting those same voters back out to vote again,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Executive Director Jon Vogel told me recently.

At least nine Democratic-held districts in five different states — Alabama’s 2nd (Rep. Bobby Bright) and 5th (Rep. Parker Griffith), Ohio’s 1st (Rep. Steve Driehaus) and 15th (Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy), North Carolina’s 8th (Rep. Larry Kissell), Virginia’s 2nd (Rep. Glenn Nye) and 5th (Rep. Tom Perriello), and Georgia’s 8th (Rep. Jim Marshall) and 12th (Rep. John Barrow) — could see a steep drop-off in the midterm among demographic groups that were energized by Obama’s candidacy and supported Democratic candidates across the board last cycle.

Eight of the districts have sizable African-American populations, including Ohio’s 1st district, which is more than one-quarter black and includes most of Cincinnati and Hamilton County.

The other district, Ohio’s 15th, is based in Columbus and includes Ohio State University, a huge source of young voters for the Obama campaign. (Younger voters are also important in Virginia’s 5th, which includes Charlottesville and the University of Virginia.)

African-Americans and college-age students turned out in considerable numbers for Obama, and it is far from clear whether they will do so again in the midterms. In fact, exit polls over the past few elections have shown that turnout for both groups has dropped in nonpresidential years.

For example, African-Americans made up 11 percent of all voters in 2004 and 13 percent of all voters in 2008, but only 10 percent of the 2006 midterm electorate. For younger voters, the drop-off is even more stark. Voters 18-29 years old constituted 18 percent of all voters in 2008 and 17 percent of all voters in 2004. But in the intervening 2006 midterm, they accounted for only 12 percent of all voters.

Along with the drop in turnout is the corresponding, but different, issue of vote choice. While black voters and 18-29-year-olds turned out in bigger numbers last year, they also gave a much greater percentage of their vote to Obama (and presumably to other Democratic candidates).

Without Obama on the ballot to bring out voters or define the overall election by his candidacy, it is uncertain how the two key voting groups will cast their ballots in individual contests. Some of these voters might return to their traditional voting preferences, especially if a number of Republican moderates are on the ballot.

Obviously, one huge question is how personally involved the president will become in the elections.

Obama has shown some limited willingness to play in some House and Senate races. Before his election, he recorded automated telephone calls for the Democratic nominee in last year’s special election in Louisiana’s 4th district and appeared in a TV ad for now-Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.). More recently, he has played a role in the New York and Pennsylvania Senate races and headlined fundraisers for Senate candidates. He will do a joint fundraiser for the House and Senate campaign committees later this month.

On the other hand, the president has generally tried to stay above the partisan fray, preferring calls for unity and bipartisanship and avoiding heavily partisan rhetoric.

Democratic campaign strategists acknowledge that while they would be happy to have the president fully engage in the midterms, they cannot assume he will be greatly involved. So, they are planning their own efforts to mobilize Democratic voters.

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) has already sat down with Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine to discuss how the two committees can coordinate their efforts to turn out Democrats next November.

Party insiders say their efforts will include targeting, messaging and building an infrastructure that will help national Democratic groups help Members’ campaigns to turn out key groups.

While strategists already can identify those districts where a drop-off in voting by African-Americans and younger voters could prove fatal to Democratic incumbents, the DCCC plans for much more elaborate targeting to allow the committee to communicate with those voters.

The DCCC also plans on investing resources into developing and refining its messaging to those voters. With the committee regarding “message” as an integral part of its field program, the DCCC is likely to engage in some extensive message testing to find out the best way to mobilize Obama voters who might otherwise sit out the midterm elections.

“For us,” Vogel says, “the question is what kind of message will get those voters to turn out.”

Finally, the DCCC will work with individual Members’ campaigns to build an infrastructure — and a tailored field campaign — in each district.

The DCCC’s recently hired national field director, Marlon Marshall, will play a key role in building organizations in key districts. Marshall, then-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) field director during the 2008 Democratic primaries, ran the Obama campaign’s Missouri field operation during the general election.

So far, GOP recruiting in districts that could see a drop in Democratic turnout has been promising. Former Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) is running again, and Steve Stivers, who narrowly lost to Kilroy last time, appears likely to opt for a rematch. Republican candidates against Bright and Barrow appear formidable, at least initially.

The National Republican Congressional Committee will need to win a few of these districts if the party is going to gain seats next year. But their efforts won’t surprise the DCCC, which has already taken concrete steps to minimize any drop in turnout.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on June 4, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Republicans Should Quit Celebrating and Face Reality

By Nathan L. Gonzales

It’s understandable that Republicans are looking for any glimmer of good news after getting drubbed in consecutive election cycles. But their celebration over recent victories in Georgia and Louisiana is over the top and leaves the party ignoring electoral reality.

“Our success in Georgia with U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss and in the two Louisiana Congressional races makes for three wins in a row for a GOP that was supposed to be destroyed, demoralized, and humiliated on Election Day,” Ron Kaufman, the Republican National Committee Budget Committee chairman, wrote in a memo this week to RNC members.

Republicans look like the football team dancing in the end zone in the fourth quarter of a game when they’re down by 40 points.

“It would seem that the media reports of our demise and of how long it would take for Republicans to catch up were greatly exaggerated,” Kaufman chided in the memo, which also included the potential creation of a Center for Republican Renewal, an RNC Speakers Bureau, and Partnership 2010, which would include a paid RNC staffer for every state.

Kaufman’s memo comes on the heels of House Minority Leader John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) memo, “The Future is Cao,” after attorney Ahn Cao (R) defeated indicted Rep. William Jefferson (D) in Louisiana’s 2nd district.

“As House Republicans look ahead to the next two years, the Cao victory is a symbol of what can be achieved when we think big, present a positive alternative, and work aggressively to earn the trust of the American people,” Boehner wrote.

Republicans clearly have their theme, and they’re sticking to it, even if the latest three victories don’t pave any path back to electoral significance.

While it’s nice to claim victory in the first three contests of the Obama era, Republicans should not forget that they held a GOP seat in Georgia, held a GOP seat in Louisiana’s 4th district and defeated an indicted Democrat who hid $90,000 cash in his freezer in Louisiana’s 2nd district.

The Georgia race should not have even made it to a runoff, so to boast about a Chambliss victory is a bit disingenuous. The GOP Senator outspent his Democratic challenger by more than 4 to 1 through Oct. 15, in a state that President George W. Bush carried by 17 points in 2004 and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried by 5 points on Nov. 4.

It’s like congratulating the New York Giants on defeating the Detroit Lions on a last-second field goal in overtime.

Democrats have enjoyed recent success in districts similar to Louisiana’s 4th, and Republicans had a very competitive primary there, but GOP leaders should not get too excited about holding a district Bush carried with 59 percent four years ago.

Looking to the future, Republicans cannot regain the majorities in the House and the Senate just by holding their own seats and defeating incumbents with frozen cash on hand.

Instead, Republicans should face the reality of the current electoral landscape. Over the last two cycles, they have lost more than 50 seats in the House and at least 13 seats in the Senate. Republicans have dug a tremendous hole for themselves, and it will take more than talking points to dig out.

Republicans need to come to terms with the fact that over the last four years, Democrats have gained control of every level of government.

In the House, Republicans had a 232-202 majority after the 2004 election. Next year, Democrats will have a 257-178 edge. In the Senate, Republicans had a 55-45 majority after the 2004 election. Next year, Democrats will have 58 or 59 Senate seats.

After the 2004 election, Republicans held 28 governorships compared with 22 for the Democrats. After Nov. 4, Democrats held 29 governorships compared with 21 for the Republicans, although the GOP will gain one back if Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) leaves, as expected, to join Obama’s Cabinet.

After the 2004 election, Republicans controlled the state legislature in 20 states compared with 19 Democratic-controlled states. Now, Democrats control the state legislature in 27 states, with the Republicans holding only 14.

And there are over 800 more Democratic state legislators than Republicans in the country, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures Web site. Four years ago, Democrats had a mere 10-seat edge out of more than 7,000 nationwide.

Given this new GOP optimism, if Democrats keep their cash in banks rather than in appliances, they could be in the majority for a very long time.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on December 10, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Georgia Senate & Louisiana 4

The November 24, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of this edition:


Georgia Senate: Still On My Mind
By Nathan L. Gonzales

It’s not over yet. The 2008 election continues with a runoff election in Georgia. And Democrats must defeat Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) to have any chance of reaching the symbolic 60 seats in the Senate. But thanks to the ongoing recount in the Minnesota Senate race, the December 2 vote in the Peach State may not be the final word. Get the whole story in the print edition.


Louisiana 4: Fight to the Finish
By Nathan L. Gonzales

It’s a good thing that Louisiana voters are used to going to the polls in December. Even though the state junked the jungle primary for more traditional primaries, Hurricane Gustav pushed the races back a month. Now, voters will go to the polls in Northwest Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District on December 6.

It’s yet another GOP open seat where Republicans are in serious jeopardy. And both parties are trying to maintain focus after an election where Democrats gained at least another 21 seats in the House. Get the whole story in the print edition.

Even in a Wave, Some Get Just What They Deserve

By Stuart Rothenberg

It isn’t easy being a candidate for Congress. It takes an unnatural amount of time and effort to put together a winning campaign, and even then, circumstances can conspire against a candidate who does everything right.

But being a confident candidate, even one with a credible campaign, doesn’t justify absurd claims and press releases. Some campaigns simply are in denial when it comes to what is important or what is possible, and it is those campaigns that drive me crazy.

Wealthy Democrat Jim Harlan was convinced he could beat Republican Rep. Steve Scalise in Louisiana’s 1st district, even though the district is the state’s most educated, most affluent and most Republican. George W. Bush drew a stunning 71 percent in the district in 2004, an even stronger showing than he had in Wyoming.

Harlan put more than $1.2 million from his own pocket into the race, and his campaign directed some of the most ridiculous attacks of the cycle against his opponent. For example, the Harlan campaign criticized Scalise for misleading voters by claiming he had a 100 percent voting record, even though he did have a perfect attendance record. “Scalise actually missed 1,453 votes in the 110th Congress before taking the seat in May,” charged a bizarre Harlan press release.

In the end, while Harlan’s campaign bragged about being added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program and touted a late September Kitchens Group poll showing Scalise with an 11-point lead, the Democratic challenger drew an embarrassing 34 percent of the vote, losing by 32 points. He never had a chance, but his campaign acted as if a win was likely.

Then there was Steve Greenberg, a Chicago- area Republican who promised that he would beat moderate Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean in Illinois’ 8th district. Greenberg got plenty of ink for being a one-time professional hockey player, and his family’s wealth was supposed to assure that he’d batter Bean with enough TV spots to win in the Republican-leaning suburban district. He was one of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s early hot recruits.

But if Greenberg ran a quality campaign, it must have been in a parallel universe where everything is opposite from this one. While Bean raised $3 million for her re-election effort, Greenberg didn’t even reach $1 million, and he put only $156,000 of his own money into a race that quickly turned from potentially competitive to a yawner.

Unlike Greenberg, New Jersey Democrat Dennis Shulman didn’t give up. Shulman, a blind rabbi and psychologist, acted as if articles about him and his candidacy in Time magazine and the New Yorker, as well as an endorsement from the mayor of New York City, made him a celebrity and a serious threat to incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Garrett. They didn’t. Most people in his district don’t read those magazines or care what Michael Bloomberg thinks.

Garrett’s district strongly leans Republican, and Bush won it with 57 percent in 2004, running more than 11 points ahead of his statewide total. Credible Republican statewide candidates always carry the district even if they are getting pounded statewide.

Despite all the self-generated hype and over-the-top campaign rhetoric, Shulman drew 42 percent against Garrett — almost 2 points worse than Paul Aronsohn (D) did two years earlier and only 1,300 votes more than 2004 Democratic nominee Anne Wolfe did.

Then there is Republican John Stone, a conservative activist and former Congressional staffer, who got slightly more than one-third of the vote in Georgia’s 12th district and blamed his loss to incumbent Rep. John Barrow (D) on the NRCC.

Stone’s own fundraising stunk, and he had no chance in the current environment to win in a 45 percent African-American district that was carried by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) four years ago. But that didn’t stop him from trying to avoid responsibility for his own failure.

The case of Indiana hopeful Mike Montagano (D) is in a class all by itself. Like a few other allegedly serious hopefuls I’ve met over the years, he was short on credentials and maturity. Even worse, he either couldn’t or wouldn’t take positions on issues.

Montagano, who received considerable financial help from his father, clearly was in over his head in this race, and his ability to win 40 percent of the vote says something about incumbent Rep. Mark Souder’s limited appeal and district voters’ willingness to vote for any Democrat on the ballot.

Finally, we have the case of Nick Leibham (D), a young, appealing challenger to incumbent Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.) in a district that seems to have a ceiling for Democrats in competitive federal races that is below 50 percent, no matter the circumstances.

Leibham assured us that he was the guy to knock off Bilbray, even though Kerry drew 44 percent in the district and Francine Busby drew 45 percent and 43 percent in the ’06 special and ’06 general election, respectively.

The special election should have been a particularly good opportunity for Democrats in the district, since the seat was left open following Republican Rep. Duke Cunningham’s resignation, plea bargain and incarceration. But after a spirited campaign against a Republican who had been a lobbyist and in an environment when Republicans around the country were in terror, Bilbray beat Busby by 7,200 votes (4.6 points).

This year, Leibham drew 45 percent against Bilbray, just what Busby did in that special.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on November 17, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Georgia 13: Democrats Sound the Alarm

By Nathan L. Gonzales

“Emergency Funds Needed for Rep. David Scott,” blared the subject line of the Oct. 21 e-mail about Georgia’s 13th district race.

It’s a strange juxtaposition in a national environment that strongly favors the Democrats and a Democratic Congressman who represents a district that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won in the 2004 White House election with more than 60 percent of the vote.

But publicly and privately, Democrats are trying to focus attention on the Atlanta-area Congressional district.

Scott, an African-American former state legislator, was first elected in 2002 with 60 percent. He ran unopposed in 2004 and took 69 percent in 2006. Scott, who is the brother-in-law of baseball legend Hank Aaron, represents a district that is approximately 41 percent black and about 8 percent Hispanic. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is expected to do very well in the district.

According to new Democratic polling for Scott’s campaign, Obama is winning the district 56 percent to 35 percent. But in the Congressional ballot test, the Congressman is only ahead narrowly, 43 percent to 38 percent, over physician Deborah Honeycutt (R). The poll was conducted Oct. 13-14 by Cooper and Secrest Associates.

Honeycutt, who is also African-American, ran against Scott two years ago and lost by more than 30 points. But the e-mail for Scott sounded the alarm anyway, pointing to the recent poll numbers and Honeycutt’s fundraising.

It is true that Honeycutt had raised a jaw-dropping $4.3 million this cycle, through Sept. 30. But the vast majority of that money was spent raising the money through direct mail, and only a small percentage was netted for the campaign. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, roughly one-tenth of Honeycutt’s money has been spent on television, and virtually all of that has been on cable.

Scott raised $966,000 through the end of September. In 2006, Honeycutt and Scott each spent about $1.3 million.

“There is too much at stake to risk complacency here,” the e-mail said. Separate polling confirms that Scott is underperforming in the district, but the e-mail and Democratic push for attention looks to be less about a legitimate fear of a Republican takeover and more about lighting a fire under a lazy Congressman. Scott started airing an attack ad on Friday going after Honeycutt for supporting a “fair tax.”

It is simply unlikely that a Democratic seat like this would flip in the current political environment. And Honeycutt’s fundraising numbers are more bark than bite. Republicans are not optimistic about their chances in Georgia’s 13th and don’t have the money to throw at scenarios.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 24, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Georgia Senate: One Race Where Endorsements Didn’t Matter

By Nathan L. Gonzales

It was a dark primary night last Tuesday for one Georgia Democrat. Thirty-six-year-old Atlanta businessman Rand Knight, who corralled a series of high-profile endorsements, pulled an astounding 5 percent of the vote in last week’s Senate Democratic primary.

But the night was just as grim for some leading labor unions.

Knight was endorsed by the National Education Association, the Georgia Association of Educators, the Georgia AFL-CIO, and at least 25 other local unions. Teachers and organized labor are often considered two of the most critical endorsements in a Democratic primary, but they didn’t get Knight anywhere.

In this case, the candidate may be to blame.

“Rand was a young man who had the passion and the agenda,” Georgia AFL-CIO President Richard Ray said about the first-time candidate. “But he was never able to raise any money.” Knight raised just $228,000, including $78,000 of his own money, through the June 25 pre-primary reporting period.

But he spent the money on paid staff and phone banking and didn’t air any television ads or send out any mailings. Knight’s strategy propelled him to a distant fourth place (out of five candidates), about 140,000 votes shy of the runoff.

Knight received only 5,500 more votes than Vietnam veteran/former Capitol Hill staffer/aspiring screen writer Josh Lanier, who did not accept individual contributions over $100 (he only raised $430 total) and spent less than $13,000 total after he put in some personal money.

Instead of spending his precious time raising money, Knight spent more than a year effectively courting the state’s labor leaders.

“Nobody outworked Rand Knight [with labor leaders],” Ray said. After the primary, the Georgia AFL-CIO immediately endorsed former state Rep. Jim Martin (D) in the Aug. 5 runoff against DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones (D).

Knight’s candidacy is a good reminder that sometimes endorsements don’t matter all that much, and that money and campaigns matter, too.


This item first appeared on RollCall.com on July 21, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Where, Oh Where Are the Top House GOP Opportunities?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Not a single Democratic House seat switched to the GOP in 2006 while Republicans were losing 30 Congressional seats.

Could Democrats pitch another shut-out this year? It’s possible, though unlikely, even given the poor Republican poll numbers, the desire for change and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s financial advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee.

After all, Democrats won a handful of reliably Republican districts in 2006 that they will struggle to retain, and no party has been shut out of taking over seats from the opposition in consecutive elections, at least since World War II.

So where are the best GOP chances?

Tier 1 Opportunities

Texas’ 22nd District, Nick Lampson (D). If only one Democratic seat switches to the Republicans, it’s likely to be Lampson’s. Lampson, of course, was defeated for re-election in 2004 (in a different district) only to come back and win Republican Tom DeLay’s open seat in 2006.

Although DeLay dropped his bid for re-election, the Republican nominee was unable to get her name on the ballot and was forced to run as a write-in candidate. Even then, Shelley Sekula Gibbs drew 42 percent of the vote.

Sekula Gibbs almost won her party’s nomination again this time, but she was defeated handily in the runoff by Pete Olson, a former aide to Sen. John Cornyn (R), who was generally regarded as the stronger general election candidate.

Lampson’s district gave President Bush 64 percent in 2004, a reflection of its Republican bent. While Lampson has built a much less liberal record than he did during his first service in the House, he is still a Democrat in a very Republican district. And that makes him the most vulnerable House Democrat in 2008.

Louisiana’s 6th District, Don Cazayoux (D). Cazayoux, a relatively conservative Democrat, is a reasonably good fit for his northeast Louisiana district. Despite that assessment, the reality is that he owes his seat in Congress to Woody Jenkins, the unelectable GOP nominee in the special election held earlier this year.

Cazayoux has a reasonable chance to win a full term in November, but if the Republicans nominate state Sen. Bill Cassidy, who has announced his candidacy, the freshman Democrat will have his hands full. The district definitely leans Republican, and a strong GOP nominee automatically becomes formidable. Republicans caught a rare break when Jenkins decided not to run again.

Tier 2 Opportunities

Kansas’ 2nd District, Nancy Boyda (D). Boyda upset then-Rep. Jim Ryun (R) last time, and the Republican nature of the district (Bush won it by 20 points in 2004) guarantees a serious contest. Ryun faces state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins for the Republican nomination.

Alabama’s 5th District, open seat. Rep. Bud Cramer’s (D) retirement opens up a conservative Southern district that will see stiff competition and should be a GOP target. But the likely Democratic nominee, state Sen. Parker Griffith, looks strong, while the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, Wayne Parker, lost to Cramer twice.

California’s 11th District, Jerry McNerney (D). Freshman McNerney rode the Democratic wave and help from the environmental community to beat Republican Rep. Richard Pombo two years ago, but he isn’t an ideal fit for his Republican- leaning district. The GOP nominee, former state Assemblyman Dean Andal, looks to be a serious threat.

Pennsylvania’s 10th District, Christopher Carney (D). Carney beat a scandal-plagued Republican in a solidly Republican district, and the question is how long he can hold onto the seat. His GOP challenger, businessman Chris Hackett, hasn’t united Republicans following a nasty primary. Still, Carney is in the kind of district that he can never take for granted.

Florida’s 16th District, Tim Mahoney (D). Much like others on the list, Mahoney would not have won last time except for a GOP scandal, but he has been a strong fundraiser and won’t be an easy target for Republicans, who won’t pick a nominee until late August. Still, the GOP is likely to have a credible nominee in this Republican-leaning district.

Other Districts to Watch

Pennsylvania’s 11th district, Paul Kanjorski (D). Democrats are nervous about veteran Kanjorski, who has received his share of negative publicity. The early campaign of Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) has been underwhelming, but that may not matter by the time November arrives. Polling suggests that this may well be a top-tier GOP takeover opportunity by November.

New York’s 20th district, Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Freshman Gillibrand is a fundraising phenom, and she will be very hard to beat in 2008. But former state GOP Chairman Sandy Treadwell has plenty of personal resources and is running in a reliably Republican district that a flawed Republican lost two years ago. The district’s fundamentals alone make this a Republican opportunity.

Wisconsin’s 8th district, Steve Kagen (D). Republican John Gard narrowly lost this Republican open seat last time, but the presidential year should bring out more voters and freshman Kagen hasn’t had the smoothest term.

A handful of other Democratic seats could also produce GOP upsets, including two in Arizona (Rep. Harry Mitchell’s and Rep. Gabrielle Gifford’s), Rep. Carol Shea-Porter’s in New Hampshire and Rep. Jim Marshall’s in Georgia.

No matter what happens, Democratic losses will be few and the party can expect a substantial net gain in November.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on July 14, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Open Season in 2010

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Democrats aren’t losing much sleep over their open seats this cycle. But 2010 may be a whole different story.

This year, Democrats control only seven of the 31 open seats in the House. They simply aren’t leaving Washington, D.C., the way the Republicans are, whether it’s due to excitement about the new majorities or peer pressure.

But it also could be due to a lack of opportunity. Along with no open Senate seats on the Democratic side, a mere 11 governorships are up this cycle (including only three open seats), and Democratic Members of Congress aren’t running for any of them.

Contrast that with 2010, when 36 governorships will be on the ballot, including at least 19 open seats. If Democratic House Members make the move, the Democratic Governors Association stands to benefit while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee can only wait and prepare to defend.

“We are fortunate to have such a talented pool of possible 2010 candidates, and we are confident that Democrats’ interests are aligned,” said DGA press secretary Brian Namey. “The first step in building a long-term majority in Congress is electing Democratic governors.”

In South Dakota, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) is expected to run for the state’s open governorship. Her family has a long political history in the state that includes her grandfather, former Gov. Ralph Herseth, and grandmother, former Secretary of State Lorna Herseth. The Congresswoman’s father, Lars Herseth, was a longtime state legislator who lost his own gubernatorial bid in 1986. Herseth Sandlin could run in part to redress his loss.

Herseth Sandlin already represents the entire state in her at-large district, and would be a formidable gubernatorial candidate. But her seat will be a tough hold for the DCCC. She had the family history in the state and one statewide bid under her belt before winning under unusual circumstances.

She lost her first House race in 2002 to former Gov. Bill Janklow (R), earning 46 percent. But Janklow resigned the seat in January 2004 after killing a motorcyclist in a car crash and being convicted of second-degree manslaughter. Herseth Sandlin won the subsequent June special election with 51 percent over former state Sen. Larry Diedrich (R). She won a full term, 53 percent to 46 percent in a rematch five months later, and cruised to re-election in the previous cycle.

But South Dakota still is a Republican state, and Democrats will struggle to find someone to follow Herseth Sandlin in the House. President Bush carried the state 60 percent to 38 percent in 2004.

In Tennessee, Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) is mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate. If he chooses to run, he may face primary opposition from former Rep. Harold Ford Jr., the 2006 Senate nominee, or former Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell.

Bush did well in Davis’ 4th district, carrying 22 of 24 counties and winning it 58 percent to 41 percent. Davis initially won the seat in 2002, when GOP Rep. Van Hilleary decided to run for governor. The Blue Dog Democrat was elected with 52 percent that year and re-elected with 55 percent two years later in a district that stretches across central Tennessee from the Kentucky border south to Alabama and Georgia.

Republicans are trying to make some noise in the district this cycle with businessman Monty Lankford (R), but their best shot would be in an open seat. Democrats likely would need another socially conservative candidate to keep the open seat.

Rep. Artur Davis (D) is sitting on $881,000 in campaign cash without a serious 2008 race and is a potential gubernatorial candidate in Alabama next cycle. But his 7th district seat would not be at risk for a takeover. The district’s population is 62 percent black, and Bush received only 35 percent there in 2004.

Other Democratic districts could become competitive, particularly in a midterm election of a Democratic president, if Members vacate them.

Minnesota Rep. Tim Walz (D) is focused on re-election this cycle to his 1st district seat, but he’s also mentioned as a future gubernatorial candidate. Walz was swept in with the Democratic wave of 2006, defeating then-Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) with 53 percent, in a district that Bush carried by 4 points. Former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) is also mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2010.

Rep. Mike Michaud (D) won Maine’s 2nd district in 2002 when John Baldacci (D) vacated the seat to run for governor. Even though Michaud has had two easy re-elections, the district could be competitive once again. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) used to represent the district, and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won it by only 6 points in the 2004 White House election. Baldacci will be term-limited as governor next cycle and Michaud is mentioned as a potential candidate.

Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) is also mentioned as a potential 2010 statewide candidate. The 69-year-old Congressman might be eyeing the governorship because it doesn’t look as if either of Hawaii’s Senate seats is opening up anytime soon. Abercrombie had close races in both 1994 (54 percent) and 1996 (50 percent), and Kerry won the district with only 53 percent in 2004. Under the right circumstances, the seat could become competitive.

Regardless of who runs for governor, the DGA is already preparing and planning for next cycle with its Project 2010. The committee is on pace to break its 2006 fundraising record in 2008, even though this year is considered an “off-cycle” for gubernatorial races. And with so few competitive races this year, the DGA will finish the cycle with money in the bank.

Of course, House Democrats aren’t the only ones eyeing governorships.

“If you’re a member of the minority, sitting in Congress today, you might take a gamble on becoming a chief executive,” said GOP consultant Phil Musser, the former executive director of the Republican Governors Association.

Oregon Rep. Greg Walden (R) is a potential gubernatorial candidate, and is already being attacked by the Oregon Democratic Party. But the National Republican Congressional Committee is not likely to have much trouble holding his massive 2nd district seat. Bush won the district with 61 percent in 2004 and the rural area is conservative, despite significant growth in the Bend area.

In New York, Rep. Peter King (R) is publicly exploring a gubernatorial bid. He’s represented the Long Island-based 3rd district since 1992, and Republicans would likely have some difficulty holding the seat in the current political environment. Bush won the district by only 5 points in 2004, and Empire State Republicans are becoming an endangered species in the Congressional delegation. King is publicly looking, but he may not actually make the jump next cycle.

Other Republican Members who are potential gubernatorial candidates include Candice Miller (Mich.), Zach Wamp (Tenn.) and Darrell Issa (Calif.), who was pushed aside during the 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis (D) but still contributed financially to the effort to oust Davis.

At this early stage, there look to be more Republican Senators seriously eyeing governorships. Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is a strong bet to run for governor of Kansas next cycle, simultaneously abiding by his term-limits pledge. He’ll be looking to replace term- limited Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) who will, in turn, receive heavy pressure to run for Brownback’s Senate seat, creating a rare Democratic opportunity and National Republican Senatorial Committee headache in Kansas.

Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) is widely expected to run for governor in 2010, replacing Gov. Sonny Perdue (R). Isakson ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1990 and would need to get past state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R), who has already announced for the race. At one point, Perdue was mentioned as a Senate candidate for Isakson’s seat, but that scenario may be in doubt.

Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison could be headed for a Republican primary for governor as well, where she could face off against incumbent Gov. Rick Perry and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

This story first appeared in Roll Call on May 1, 2008. Copyright 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Georgia 8 & Ohio 1

The July 3, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check. Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...

Georgia 8: Marshall’s Plan
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Plenty of Democrats had close races in 2006. But the bulk of them were challenging Republican incumbents and not trying to hang onto their own seats, as Cong. Jim Marshall (D) in Georgia’s 8th District was doing.

Bucking the nationwide trend, Republicans actually did fairly well in the Peach State last cycle and came within a few thousand votes of knocking off Marshall and his colleague John Barrow (D) in the 12th District. Now, Democrats call Marshall “battle-tested,” while Republicans label him as an opportunity. Marshall’s 2006 opponent, former Cong. Mac Collins, hasn’t completely ruled out a bid, but Republicans are excited about their newest recruit: retired Air Force Major Rick Goddard.

With Goddard, Republicans have a candidate who can go toe-to-toe with Marshall on military service in a district dominated by Warner Robins Air Logistics Center. But with two more years to establish himself as the incumbent in the newly drawn 8th District, Marshall will be a formidable incumbent. For the rest of the story, you must subscribe...

Ohio 1: Leave No District Behind

The 2006 results in Ohio were bittersweet for Democrats. Nationwide, they took over the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. In the Buckeye State, Democrats took over the governorship, knocked off a sitting Republican senator and made gains in the state Legislature. Yet Democrats picked up a measly one seat in the House, the seat formerly held by Cong. Bob Ney (R), out of five targeted opportunities.

But in 2008, Democrats are setting their sights on Ohio again, including Cong. Steve Chabot (R) and his Cincinnati-based 1st District. He won narrowly last cycle over Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley (D) and will likely face state House Minority Whip Steve Driehaus (D) this time around. There won’t be as many races at the top of the ticket, but the presidential nominees are likely to spend plenty of time in the district throughout the year. For the rest of the story, you must subscribe...

This issue also includes the 2008 Primary Calendar for House and Senate races.

Musical Chairs in Georgia in 2010?

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Don't be surprised in four years if a couple significant Georgia Republicans attempt to switch roles. In 2010, Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) will be term-limited and could very well seek an open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Sen. Johnny Isakson (R), who would run for governor, according to one GOP insider familiar with the situation.

The scenario certainly isn't far-fetched. Even though Isakson is only in his first term in the Senate, the governorship has been in his sights for years, going back to 1990 when he lost to Zell Miller (D) 53%-46%. And Perdue has a decade's worth of experience as a legislator in the Georgia state senate, including a stint as president pro tempore. According to the GOP source, both men would likely endorse the other in the maneuver as well.

Four years is probably two eternities in politics, but for any Democrats looking past an uphill battle against Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) this cycle, 2010 may not provide any better opportunities.

This item first appeared on Political Wire on January 31, 2007.