House Members Soft-Pedal Their Résumés in Gubernatorial Campaigns

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Even though having Washington, D.C., on your résumé is supposed to be like having a scarlet letter on your lapel this election cycle, more than a dozen current and former Members of Congress are running for governor — and trying to overcome voters’ ill feelings toward the nation’s capital.

Not everyone can be as lucky as Rep. Mary Fallin, the heavy favorite to win the July 27 Oklahoma GOP primary and the general election in November. Instead, Members are trying to figure out how to maximize their federal experience without taking on too much water in their campaign.

“It’s a handicap in more ways than a help. Even more so this time,” said one GOP consultant who has worked with multiple Members who ran for governor. Not only do they have to balance their calendar between official duties and the trail, Members are also casting potentially controversial votes in the middle of a campaign.

In Alabama, Rep. Artur Davis is favored to win the June 1 Democratic gubernatorial primary, but victory is not guaranteed. Davis has been running a general election campaign from the outset and voted against the health care reform bill. So even though Davis’ Democratic primary opponent, state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, is running a mediocre campaign, he appears to be drawing votes from disenchanted Democrats who are upset with Davis for voting against health care reform.

In Georgia, GOP Rep. Nathan Deal postponed his resignation from the House in order to vote against the health care bill, hoping that doing so would give him a boost in the gubernatorial primary. But his departure from office was met with headlines about a possible ethics committee investigation into whether he used his Congressional office to help a family-owned business.

It’s exactly what Deal didn’t need in the middle of his battle with Secretary of State Karen Handel for the second slot in the Aug. 10 Republican runoff in the Peach State. State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine is expected to finish first in the July 20 primary.

According to one GOP strategist, Members shouldn’t quit to run for governor. The line won’t be erased from their résumé, and they shouldn’t throw away an opportunity to make news.

In South Carolina, Rep. Gresham Barrett is using his office as a platform to demonstrate his opposition to President Barack Obama and the Democratic agenda. One of Barrett’s television ads points out that the lawmaker is “more opposed to Obama than any Congressman in America, but one.”

Barrett is in the middle of a competitive four-candidate Republican primary set for June 8. He’s competing with state Rep. Nikki Haley and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer for a spot in the June 22 runoff against state Attorney General Henry McMaster, who is likely to finish first in the initial primary.

Rep. Zach Wamp, the eight-term Republican from Tennessee, talks about the Beltway from a distance, offering to meet people at the state line who want to take away guns.

Wamp doesn’t have the benefit of a runoff. He’ll have to knock off Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, the frontrunner in the GOP race, and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey in the Aug. 5 primary.

Rep. Pete Hoekstra appears to be the frontrunner in his race to become governor of Michigan, but there is a long way to go before the Aug. 3 GOP primary. An April 22 Rasmussen Reports survey showed him leading the primary with 28 percent. Wealthy venture capitalist Rick Snyder was second with 14 percent, state Attorney General Mike Cox had 13 percent and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard had 9 percent. The automated survey had a 4.5-point margin of error.

Hoekstra voted in favor of both the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 and the Troubled Asset Relief Program last year — decisions that could haunt him in the campaign.

In all four states (Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Michigan), the primary is critical because the GOP nominee will likely start the general election with a distinct advantage. But while Hoekstra is in a strong position in his primary, Deal, Barrett and Wamp are underdogs.

The Sept. 18 primary is critical in Hawaii, where the Democratic nominee will have the edge in November. Neil Abercrombie decided to resign his House seat earlier this year in order to focus on his gubernatorial bid. He should be able to spend more time on the campaign trail battling Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann instead of traveling the 5,000 miles one way from his district to D.C.

A number of former Members of Congress who have been out of the House for a lot longer than Abercrombie and Deal are also running for governor — with varying likelihoods of winning.

Former Rep. Scott McInnis is running in Colorado and doesn’t have much GOP primary opposition, but he faces a tough general election battle with Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D).

In Ohio, former Rep. John Kasich secured the GOP nomination in last week’s primary, but he faces an extremely competitive race against incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D), who also served in the House. While Democrats will try to use Kasich’s House service against him, they appear to be more excited about the Republican’s subsequent work for Lehman Brothers.

In Wisconsin, former Rep. Mark Neumann (R), who served with Kasich and Strickland in the House, is presenting himself primarily as a small-business man, but he isn’t shying away from his time in Congress.

“People look back at 12 years ago and remember a much different time,” Neumann said in a recent interview. “They remember we balanced the budget and passed tax cuts.”

Neumann’s GOP primary opponent agrees.

“I liked what he did in Congress. I was for it,” Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker said about Neumann’s record in the House. “I’m not going to attack him on it.”

Neumann looks like a slight underdog to Walker in the Sept. 14 primary, with the winner facing Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, a former Democratic Congressman, in the general election.

Other former Members are much longer shots in either the primary or general elections.

Former Rep. Rick Lazio is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination in New York but would face an extremely tough race against state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) in the general election.

In Pennsylvania, former Rep. Joe Hoeffel isn’t even polling in the double digits with the Democratic primary less than a week away.

Four other former Members are running for governor, but their House service is no longer their defining characteristic.

Former Rep. Bill McCollum has spent the past four years as Florida’s attorney general and has a slight advantage over state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D) in this fall’s election. McCollum can’t overlook wealthy health care executive Rick Scott in the GOP primary either.

Former GOP Rep. Bob Ehrlich is running for governor in Maryland, but he was already governor for four years before being defeated for re-election in 2006.

Former Rep. Butch Otter (R) is running for re-election as governor of Idaho, and ex-Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) is running for re-election in Nevada. Otter should be re-elected easily, while Gibbons, who has been battered by personal scandal, will likely lose in either the Republican primary or general election.

This story first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on May 13, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Some Race Results Matter More Than Others

By Stuart Rothenberg

This year, it’s harder than ever to distinguish what really matters from what doesn’t. Special situations are adding to the confusion, as is a fickle public, which is showing a willingness to change its positions in the blink of an eye.

In Hawaii’s special Congressional election to fill the opening created by the resignation of Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie, Republican Charles Djou certainly looks headed for an upset victory over two Democrats, former Rep. Ed Case, who has already represented the other half of the state in Congress, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who has been described by the local media as “the candidate of the Democratic Party establishment.”

With Djou leading in polls and local Democrats unable to agree to support a single candidate in the election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has announced that it won’t spend any more resources on the race, which it now thinks is unwinnable.

That’s a stunning decision given the Democratic nature of the district, but it reflects the DCCC’s frustration with the race — and particularly with the state’s two Senators, who remain bitter about Case’s 2006 Democratic primary challenge to Sen. Daniel Akaka and have refused to encourage Hanabusa to exit the race.

Since the two Democrats are effectively dividing the Democratic vote and allowing Djou to win with far less than a majority of the vote, the outcome doesn’t say much of anything about November. The outcome isn’t irrelevant, but it certainly isn’t an indicator of things to come.

The special election in Pennsylvania’s 12th district is a far more important event, since it’s a head-to-head contest in a Democratic part of the state. But while Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry won the district narrowly in 2004 and Al Gore carried it more comfortably in 2000, Barack Obama lost it narrowly in 2008.

This is the kind of district where voters could use the special election as an opportunity to send a message of dissatisfaction about the Obama presidency and the Democratic Congressional agenda.

Republican Tim Burns is about as strong a candidate as Republicans could have hoped for. I interviewed him months ago as well as in late April, and I found him to be a more poised and polished candidate than I did during his first visit.

Given the large Democratic registration advantage in the district and the district’s strong support for the late Rep. John Murtha (D), Democrat Mark Critz, who was an aide to Murtha, should have an advantage in the race. A Burns victory would be a bad sign for Democrats for the fall.

Recent events in Utah certainly were noteworthy but not as instructive as the media coverage would suggest.

Nominating conventions are usually dominated by activists and ideologues, and purists at both the state GOP convention and the Democrats’ 3rd district convention showed their muscle, if not their brains.

Republican delegates denied Sen. Bob Bennett even the right to go to a primary to win renomination, and Democrats in the 2nd district forced Rep. Jim Matheson into a primary with a more liberal opponent who criticized the Congressman’s vote against health care reform.

Conventions produce different outcomes than primaries, so the results in Utah say more about the process than the voters. But the results are a reminder that the ideologues are particularly intolerant and vociferous this cycle.

Finally, the dramatic changes in the Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania, the Republican Senate primary in Florida and the GOP gubernatorial primary in California are worth remembering throughout the cycle.

Rep. Joe Sestak’s campaign seemed very much stalled until a single brilliant TV ad jump-started it and changed the Democratic Senate race in Pennsylvania fundamentally. Using video of party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter (D) together with former President George W. Bush, Sestak redefined the choice Democratic primary voters face. Now it is Specter who will need to come from behind.

In Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist went from popular frontrunner in the GOP race to controversial also-ran in the Republican primary to Independent candidate in a matter of months. A year ago, nobody thought that could happen.

Similarly, in California, Republican Meg Whitman built up a large lead in the gubernatorial primary, only to see it largely evaporate when her opponent, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, hit her in a TV ad for her association with Goldman Sachs.

Whitman’s 50-point lead in a March Public Policy Institute of California poll has fallen to 2 points in a recent SurveyUSA poll.

These kinds of reverses ought to make favorites and frontrunners feel uncomfortable, whether Democratic Senators such as Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Michael Bennet in Colorado or Republican Senate hopefuls Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and Sue Lowden in Nevada.

On the other hand, I’m not yet a believer in some races where recent polls show tightening in general election ballot tests, including Senate races in Iowa and North Carolina. That’s because I expect the 2010 midterms ultimately will be a referendum on Democratic control of the White House and Congress, making for a very difficult political environment for Democratic challengers in both states in the fall.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on May 13, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Ratings Changes in FL, NH Senate races

Florida Governor Charlie’ Crist’s switch out of the GOP Senate race and into the Senate contest as an Independent, combined with the entry of wealthy businessman Jeff Greene into the Democrat race, adds some uncertainty into the contest. But it doesn’t, in our view, change the bottom line entirely. Move from Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party to Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party. Marco Rubio (R) remains the favorite, but the three-way contest is more unpredictable.

While New Hampshire remains a competitive race, our interviews with the top candidates and recent polling leads us to believe that Republicans are more likely than not to retain this open seat. Move from Toss-up to Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party.

While events between now and November will affect the outlook for November, the GOP seems most likely to net 5-7 Senate seats, with a 8-seat gain certainly possible (but still short of the 10-seat gain the GOP would need for control). That means Democrats are likely to retain control of the Senate, but at a dramatically reduced level.

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

• Lincoln (D-AR)
  
• Reid (D-NV)
  
• ND Open (Dorgan, D)
• DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (3 R, 4 D)

• KY Open (Bunning, R)
  
• MO Open (Bond, R)
• OH Open (Voinovich, R)
• IL Open (Burris, D)
• IN Open (Bayh, D)
• Bennet (D-CO)
• Specter (D-PA)
  

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 0 D)

• Burr (R-NC)
• FL Open (LeMieux, R) #
• NH Open (Gregg, R)*

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R,2 D)

• Vitter (R-LA)
  
• Boxer (D-CA)
  
• CT Open (Dodd, D)
  

Currently Safe (11 R, 8 D)

• Bennett (R-UT)
• Coburn (R-OK)
• Crapo (R-ID)
• DeMint (R-SC)
• Grassley (R-IA)
  
• Isakson (R-GA)
• McCain (R-AZ)
• Murkowski (R-AK)
• Shelby (R-AL)
• Thune (R-SD)
• KS Open (Brownback, R)
• Feingold (D-WI)
• Gillibrand (D-NY)
• Inouye (D-HI)
• Leahy (D-VT)
• Mikulski (D-MD)
• Murray (D-WA)
• Schumer (D-NY)
• Wyden (D-OR)

Crist Switcheroo: Likely Less Than Meets the Eye

By Stuart Rothenberg

Now that multiple reports indicate that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has decided to drop his GOP Senate candidacy and run for the state’s open Senate seat as an Independent, we are in for saturation coverage about what it means for the race, for the Republican Party and for Rep. Kendrick Meek, the likely Democratic Senate nominee.

While the carnival atmosphere produced by the development is understandable and at least partly justified — it’s not often a sitting governor can’t win his party’s Senate nomination and drops out of a primary hours before the filing deadline to run as an Independent — the ramifications of the decision probably are less than you think.

Even before Crist’s decision, former state Speaker Marco Rubio (R) has been the favorite to win the Senate race in November. He is still the favorite to win. That hasn’t changed. But Crist’s decision raises plenty of questions in the long term.

From the Democratic point of view, anything that shakes up the race probably is good.

Meek hasn’t been a factor in two-way trial heats, so a three-way race obviously gives him a more reasonable narrative. He won’t need 50 percent to win, a number that seems simply unattainable. But if he can win with 35 percent of the vote, he cannot be dismissed so easily.

Meek now has another candidate, Crist, who has a strong incentive to go after soft Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and if the governor is successful in that effort, it leaves Meek with only a part of the Democratic base.

Indeed, if Rubio leads in mid-September polling and Meek trails Crist in those three-way trial heats, the Congressman will have to start worrying about substantial defections to Crist, and even about Crist becoming the de-facto Democratic candidate, much as Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID) became the de facto Republican candidate in Connecticut in 2006.

So, while Crist’s Independent Senate bid has to be generating a sense of hope among some Democrats, it’s not clear that his decision to run as an Independent has dramatically improved Meek’s prospects.

As I noted in an earlier column on the race (Should Charlie Crist Roll the Dice to Save Long-Shot Senate Bid?), Crist’s prospects as an Independent go from nonexistent — since he was the certain loser of the Republican primary — to mediocre in a three-way race.

Any way you slice it, that’s an improvement for Crist, who will suddenly have a new narrative in the race.

As an Independent, he’ll surely argue that he’s above partisan politics and a commonsense problem-solver who is more concerned about moving Florida forward than engaging in petty partisan fights.

And as governor, he will get plenty of media attention, and he’ll be able to use issues of the day (such as the oil spill in the Gulf) to position himself as a fighter for the average Floridian.

But one political veteran who has been following the race and public sentiment about Crist extremely closely doubts that Sunshine State voters are going to embrace Crist or his message.

“People are done with him. It’s that simple. Florida voters are never going to believe that Charlie Crist has strong beliefs about anything, that he is a stand-up guy,” the observer said.

Crist is likely to lose most of his GOP support after promising repeatedly that he would stay in the Republican race but is now announcing he will run as an Independent. That flip-flop, combined with his recent veto of a Republican education bill (to say nothing of his support of President Barack Obama’s stimulus bill), is likely to leave him without the Republican support that he would need to thread the needle in a three-way contest.

Knowledgeable political observers dismiss the idea that Crist can repeat Lieberman’s victory, noting that partisanship is a much stronger factor in Florida.

This race “bears no resemblance” to what happened in Connecticut, one insider with proven political instincts said.

Observers agree that the situation is, of course, extremely fluid now and that it is wise to wait to see how Crist handles question about who he would caucus with in Washington, D.C., if elected, whether he will return campaign contributions from Republican donors who want their money back, and who will run his campaign if, as expected, he loses many or all of his consultants.

And some Florida insiders still believe that Rubio could make a serious mistake — or be derailed by legal issues and investigations — thereby giving the other candidates, and particularly Crist, a chance to alter the trajectory of the race.

Until Crist announces his intentions, of course, his plans remain uncertain, even with reports circulating that he has decided to run as an Independent. As one observer noted wryly, “Gov. Crist has been known to change his mind on core beliefs.”


This column first appeared in Roll Call and CQPolitics.com on April 29, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Florida Senate: Should Charlie Crist Roll the Dice to Save Long-Shot Bid?

By Stuart Rothenberg

In less than a month, we will know whether Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is absolutely committed to running for the Senate this year as a Republican.

Crist, of course, says the matter is closed — that he is in the GOP race to stay. But some observers won’t be convinced until the filing deadline passes at noon on April 30.

They note the governor has launched a full-scale attack on former state Speaker Marco Rubio (R), and they speculate that he will wait to see what kind of damage he inflicts on Rubio over the next few weeks before deciding on his political course of action — whether it is dropping his Senate bid completely or running as an Independent.

There is plenty of reason for Crist to consider an Independent bid for Senate. Polling shows the governor’s standing has plummeted, and he now trails Rubio in every Republican primary poll, sometimes by breathtakingly large margins.

Crist’s base in the GOP is virtually nonexistent, according to one Florida veteran campaign watcher I spoke with recently. Since much of the governor’s job approval over the past year has come from Florida Democrats, an Independent bid aimed at weaving together a coalition of moderate Republicans, Democrats and independents doesn’t seem impossible, at least at first blush.

But savvy observers cite a number of reasons why they are skeptical that Crist will switch from the GOP contest to mount an Independent bid in the fall.

First, one insider said, Crist doesn’t yet believe that he will lose the Republican race.

“Charlie still doesn’t think he’s in trouble. He thinks this is just a phase in the race, and he and his people believe that with the stuff they have [on Rubio], they can turn it around.”

Though everyone acknowledges that the GOP primary is still almost five months away and that Crist has resources and ammunition to use against Rubio, Crist and his loyal supporters seem to be the only ones who believe that a comeback is realistic.

Veteran state observers note the trendlines of a long list of polls favor Rubio, and they comment that “nothing that Crist is throwing at Rubio is sticking,” an ominous sign for the governor.

A new controversy involving the state GOP’s former chairman, Jim Greer, who is seen by all as close to Crist, will only make it even more difficult for the governor. And the final month of the legislative session is likely to add to Crist’s woes.

Florida observers are already predicting that Rubio will receive a flood of cash after the Legislature ends its session on May 1, which will boost his campaign against Crist. Before the primary campaign began in earnest, insiders doubted that Rubio would have the resources he needed to defeat Crist. However, that concern has all but been erased.

Second, it isn’t clear that Crist could win a three-way race against Rubio as the GOP nominee and Rep. Kendrick Meek as the Democratic nominee.

In four public polls conducted over the past two months — two of them by or for Democrats, Daily Kos/Research 2000 and Public Policy Polling, and two by Republican or Republican-leaning pollsters, Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates and Rasmussen Reports — Rubio leads three-way contests. Three of the surveys show Crist in second place, while one has him third.

Insiders seem to agree that a Crist Independent bid would damage the governor’s credibility and rob him of much of the Republican and Democratic support he currently has in hypothetical ballot tests, certainly putting him at great risk of a third-place finish.

Running as an Independent would confirm the line of attack that Crist’s critics have leveled at him — that he is an opportunist who will do or say anything that he needs to in order to further his personal goals. And that would peel Republican and Democratic supporters away from him quickly.

Some observers doubt Crist’s fundraising ability as an Independent, noting that many of his contributors have already maxed out for the primary and general election.

Yes, Crist’s chances of winning a three-way race might be marginally better than his chances of defeating Rubio in a GOP primary, but the risk of embarrassment would also be much greater for the governor.

Rubio has become the odds-on favorite to be the state’s next Senator, though some think his road would be easier in a three-way general election contest, since a late August primary would be costly and Rubio would enter the battle against Meek weakened by Crist’s attacks. Others think a three-way race is Meek’s best chance for an upset, since the Republican vote would be divided.

But it is difficult to imagine Meek winning in November. While he will talk often about his years in the Florida Highway Patrol, his record is relatively liberal, Democrats have lost ground in the state’s generic ballot test and the recently enacted health care bill has received a very chilly reception in the state, including among seniors.

Meek is personally appealing, but he carries too much political baggage and was handed the Democratic nomination without a fight largely because Crist looked invincible when the race was taking shape.

Meek has a talented team, but the political landscape this cycle favors Republicans strongly, both nationally and in Florida. And that is likely to be decisive in November.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on April 5, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Plus 10 in the Senate? Republicans Certainly Not There Yet

By Stuart Rothenberg

Having seen victories by Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, the 1994 Republican and 2006 Democratic Congressional sweeps, and Sen. Scott Brown’s (R) recent Massachusetts victory, I’m not inclined to rule out unexpected outcomes — especially nine months before an event.

But the recent explosion of talk of Republicans gaining 10 seats in the Senate is simply premature. Right now, the GOP has an opportunity to net as many as eight Senate seats. That’s a huge number, especially considering that Democrats have 18 seats up this fall, but it is well short of control.

The new political landscape has resulted in an improved environment for the GOP, including the very real possibility that the party can retain all four of its most vulnerable open seats, in Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and New Hampshire.

For the moment, let’s assume the GOP avoids losing any of its own seats.

Republicans have the advantage in four Democratic-held Senate seats — North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas and Nevada. In addition, they are no worse than even money in four others — Indiana, Illinois, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

So, any chance of gaining 10 seats would require Republican candidates to win at least two of the following four states: Connecticut, California, Wisconsin and Washington.

Early polling in Connecticut shows state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal ahead of both former Rep. Rob Simmons and businesswoman Linda McMahon, the two Republicans most likely to be the eventual nominee.

Simmons is a quirky ex-legislator who built a moderate record while representing eastern Connecticut in the House. McMahon is a wealthy, self-funding first-time candidate whose claim to fame and wealth, professional wrestling, is widely seen as crude and violent.

Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D) exit from the race hurt Simmons, whose main argument has been substance and electability. He is now an underdog for the GOP nomination. McMahon’s wealth (she has promised to spend tens of millions of dollars), outsider persona, poise and relatively conservative positioning makes her stronger than Simmons in a primary and potentially more of a threat to Blumenthal.

Still, both Republicans start far behind Blumenthal, in the polls and in handicapping. A four-term statewide officeholder, Blumenthal is a smart Democrat in a Democratic state. He’ll raise plenty of cash and begins with a clear advantage in the race.

In California, voters aren’t particularly enthusiastic about Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). She’s a polarizing political figure and running at or below 50 percent in ballot tests against either Assemblyman Chuck DeVore or businesswoman Carly Fiorina, two of the leading Republicans in the race.

Still, DeVore doesn’t have the breadth of appeal or money to defeat Boxer, while Fiorina has plenty of baggage.

Boxer’s prospects would take a hit, of course, if California Republicans were to nominate former Rep. Tom Campbell, a moderate who would have considerable statewide appeal — if he could accumulate the resources for an expensive statewide race. But Campbell’s past fundraising isn’t encouraging.

For now, Boxer’s weakness does not yet translate into a serious Republican opportunity.

In Wisconsin, some polling has shown Sen. Russ Feingold (D) having trouble in a race against former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). The only problem is that Thompson isn’t now running for the Senate, though he is considering it. And Feingold, who voted against the Troubled Asset Relief Program, is a savvy politician who has developed a reputation for independence.

The main Republican contender currently is Terrence Wall, a prosperous real estate developer who put $300,000 into his campaign but hasn’t paid state taxes in nine of the past 10 years. Democrats apparently have other tax ammunition to use against Wall.

When I interviewed Wall recently, he refused to give his date of birth. He only offered the year of his birth (and his age), apparently because he is concerned about identity theft. Wall, in other words, has a long way to go before he is a serious threat to Feingold, even in a bad year for Democrats.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) is another smart politician, and while Republican insiders hope to recruit someone who can test the Senator, they don’t have a formidable challenger yet. Until they do, there isn’t any reason to see Washington as a GOP takeover opportunity.

Obviously, Sen. Evan Bayh’s (D-Ind.) sudden announcement Monday that he will not seek re-election improves GOP prospects in that state and therefore nationally.

While some polling showed the Democrat at risk, a recent Research 2000 poll for the liberal Web site the Daily Kos showed him leading former Sen. Dan Coats by 20 points. Bayh’s political savvy, strong connection to Hoosier voters and $13 million bank account would have made him a formidable foe for any Republican challenger, so his exit automatically improves GOP prospects, especially given the overall landscape of the election cycle.

Bayh’s retirement puts an eighth Democratic seat at considerable risk, forcing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to be even more on the defensive than it was. But in another sense, it doesn’t change things fundamentally. For even after Bayh’s retirement, a Republican gain of 10 seats is more hype than reality.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on February 16, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

Don’t Hold Your Breath for an Anti-Incumbent Election

By Stuart Rothenberg

Voters are angry, especially at Washington, D.C., and with politicians. They are unhappy with both parties. All that is generally true.

But voters’ dissatisfaction with those in charge doesn’t mean that November is likely to be an “anti-incumbent election.” In fact, it almost certainly won’t. We never, or almost never, have true anti-incumbent elections, as I have noted before.

If Republican incumbents have problems, it will be in their primaries.

In Texas, Gov. Rick Perry looked to have enough momentum to pull away from his GOP primary opponent, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. But that hasn’t happened. The Senator hasn’t been a scintillating candidate, but she is still very much in the game against the governor, according to knowledgeable insiders.

Perry won re-election four years ago with only 39 percent of the vote in a four-way race. While conservatives have rallied behind him, there are many in the Republican Party who don’t like his smugness and his shoot-from-the-hip style.

Arizona’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who became the state’s top officeholder when her predecessor joined the Obama administration, faces a roomful of primary challengers in her bid for a full term, and her prospects are uncertain. She inherited a terrible budget situation and was forced to select from a number of unappealing choices.

Indiana Rep. Dan Burton, South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis and Utah Sen. Bob Bennett also face challenges that have developed to a stage that make them worth watching.

Nonincumbent Republicans who have the mantle of the establishment are also vulnerable given the current environment.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the state’s GOP Senate nomination, is the most obvious example. He faces a very difficult fight against former state Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who is running as the insurgent despite his previous position.

The same dynamic is taking place in New Hampshire, where conservative Ovide Lamontagne and two businessmen could give former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte a migraine in the Republican Senate primary.

And in Kentucky, Rand Paul, son of Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul (a former presidential candidate), is running as an outsider for the Republican Senate nomination against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the favorite of virtually the entire state and the national Republican Party. GOP insiders think Grayson can win the primary, but they are far from certain about the outcome.

But if those incumbents (and establishment-backed nonincumbents) get past their primaries, they will then benefit from the public mood, which currently looks likely to punish Democrats at the ballot box.

A rash of recent polling, much of it paid for by liberal Web sites Daily Kos and Firedoglake, show Democratic incumbents in horrible shape — about where Republicans were in 2006 and 2008.

Surveys over the past couple of weeks have shown former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) ahead of Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) by 8 points, Andy Harris (R) leading Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-Md.) by 13 points, former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) leading Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.) by 10 points and former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) leading Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) by a whopping 17 points.

In addition, Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) leads unknown challenger Randy Altschuler (R) by only 2 points, while controversial Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is drawing 55 percent in an early ballot test against state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D).

Even if only most of these results are close to being accurate, they suggest that other Democratic House incumbents are seeing significant erosion in their numbers from what those same numbers were even a year ago.

Over in the Senate, Democratic numbers are equally terrible.

Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Nevada Sen. Harry Reid are sitting with unfavorable ratings larger than their favorable ratings. Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who would be crushed if this year’s political environment resembled that of the 2006 or 2008 cycle, is running even or ahead of his potential Democratic opponents, and Democratic prospects over the past year have deteriorated in Ohio and Missouri.

Polling in North Carolina is particularly instructive. Recent surveys continue to show roughly equal numbers of respondents approving and disapproving of the job Sen. Richard Burr (R) is doing. But even with those mediocre numbers, Burr is holding clear (if unintimidating) leads over his potential general election opponents.

The bottom line on all of this seems pretty clear: Voters are not enamored of incumbents of either party, and GOP incumbents or “establishment” candidates facing strong “outsider” primary opponents could be in for more rough sledding than they would normally need to expect.

But when the general election rolls around, unless there is a significant change in the national mood, voter dissatisfaction will be aimed overwhelmingly at the candidates of one party. And that is why Democratic insiders are privately raising their own estimates of party losses.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on January 25, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

30-Somethings Aim for Aging Senate

By Nathan Gonzales

Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) was 4 years old when Rep. Mike Castle (R) was elected lieutenant governor of Delaware. But come 2011 the two men could serve together in the Senate.

Giannoulias, 33, is one of a handful of young candidates running to become a member of what is now the oldest — in terms of average age — Senate in history. Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R), 37, and former Florida state Speaker Marco Rubio (R), 38, are among the other under-40 Senate candidates whose 2010 bids have gained some national attention.

But while next year’s midterm electorate is likely to be older than in a presidential year, there’s no indication that being a younger candidate will be an obstacle for any of the 30-something crowd running.

“No one has said, ‘You’re too young to be a Senator,’” Grayson told Roll Call.

Indeed, it will be difficult to take issue with the secretary of state’s youth and inexperience because he’s in the middle of his second term in statewide office and the other three main candidates in the race aren’t that much older than he is.

Giannoulias and Rubio aren’t political newcomers either. The Illinois Democrat was elected statewide in 2006 at the age of 30 while Rubio was first elected to the state House when he was 29 and was Speaker by age 35.

With their political backgrounds, Giannoulias, Rubio and Grayson are in good company. Nine current Senators were elected before the age of 40 and all of them had previous experience in elected office.

Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) and Max Baucus (D-Mont.) all served in the House. Sens. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) held statewide office, and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) served in the state Legislature.

Then-Chittenden County State’s Attorney Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) was elected to the Senate in 1974, before Giannoulias was even born. Leahy was elected at 34, the youngest current Senator at swearing-in.

Until this year, that distinction was held by now-Vice President Joseph Biden, who was elected to the Senate from Delaware at age 29 and turned 30 before being sworn in in January 1973.

The late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) was elected to the chamber at age 30. In fact, the governor of the Bay State appointed a placeholder after Sen. John F. Kennedy (D-Mass.) was elected president because Ted Kennedy was then too young to serve.

According to the Senate Historical Office, the average age of Senators at the beginning of the 111th Congress was 62.7 years. The average age of Senators in the 1st Congress was 47 and stayed in the 40s for all but three of the first 30 Congresses. More recently, the average age of Senators has increased steadily every Congress over the past decade, and the last three Congresses have been the chamber’s oldest.

This cycle’s crop of young Senate candidates is balanced out by some political veterans such as former Association of Trial Lawyers of America President Roxanne Conlin (D), 65, who is running in Iowa, and Castle, 70, who is running in Delaware. He’ll likely face state Attorney General Beau Biden (D), 40, who is spending time with his family after coming home from active duty in Iraq before making an official decision.

For younger candidates, the greatest challenge may be balancing life on the campaign trail with their young families.

“With a wife and four children at home, running for Senate can be especially tough,” explained Rubio. “When it’s 11:30 at night and there are two hours left on the drive home, sometimes it’s difficult.”

He added: “But I remind myself that I’m running to be a voice for my children and their generation.”

Grayson echoed those sentiments.

“The challenging part is that I’m away from them a lot,” Grayson said about his two young children. “But they’re able to do more in this campaign because they’re older. It’s fun having them on the trail in the parades.”

Grayson believes his age is an asset because he’s more familiar with the technology of the day than the average Senate candidate and better able to communicate with college students and young professionals. “I have the ability to relate to them because not too long ago, that was me,” Grayson said.

Neither Rubio nor Giannoulias nor Grayson is guaranteed election next year. All of them face competitive primaries and general elections, but their age isn’t likely to be their downfall should they come up short.

If the most recent presidential contests are any indication, the American electorate isn’t turned off by youth. The younger candidate has won four out of the last five races, and the last three presidents have come into office at fairly young ages: Bill Clinton was 46, George W. Bush was 54, and Barack Obama was 47 when first elected.


This story first appeared in Roll Call on November 30, 2009 and on CQPolitics.com on November 28, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.