Election Preview Panel

In the wake of the health care vote, Stu participated in a CQ-Roll Call Election Preview panel moderated by Taegan Goddard of Political Wire. You can watch the video here.

Obama Taps First Responders

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Apparently if you wanted to be in President Obama's administration, you should have given a Democratic response to one of President Bush's State of the Union speeches.

• Commerce designee Gary Locke (2003)
• Former Commerce designee Bill Richardson (2004 -- Spanish response)
• Former Health and Human Services designee Tom Daschle (2001 & 2004)
• Rumored Health and Human Services designee Kathleen Sebelius (2008)
• Appointed DNC Chairman Tim Kaine (2006)

Honorable mention: Obama also wanted Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA) to be U.S. Trade Representative (2007 -- Spanish response.)


This item first appeared on Political Wire on February 26, 2009.

What Late Veep Pick?

By Stuart Rothenberg

I thought it odd last month when there was a flurry of talk about Senators Barack Obama and John McCain possibly announcing their running mates. Make a selection more than a month before the conventions, thereby eliminating the big reason for getting excited in late July and most of August? It seemed like a crazy idea to me.

Now, with the announcements near, some again are wondering why Obama and McCain have waited so long to announce their picks.

Let's be clear: Early picks are the exception, not "late picks." Most selections over the past 25 years have taken place the week before the conventions, so if Obama's and McCain's picks are "late," it's only because the conventions are late. Blame the International Olympic Committee, if you must.

1980 Bush (R) -- July 17, during the Convention (July 14-17)
1984 Ferraro (D) -- July 12, the week before the Convention (July 16-19)
1988 Quayle (R) -- Aug. 16, during the Convention (Aug. 15-18)
1988 Bentsen (D) -- July 12, the week before the Convention (July 18-21)
1992 Gore (D) -- July 9, the week before the Convention (July 13-16)
1996 Kemp (R) -- Aug. 10, two days before the Convention (Aug. 12-15)
2000 Lieberman (D) -- Aug. 7, the week before the Convention (Aug. 15-17)
2000 Cheney (R) -- July 25, the week before the Convention (July 31-Aug. 3)
2004 -- Edwards (D) -- July 6, three weeks before the Convention (July 26-29)

This item first appeared on Political Wire on August 20, 2008.

TimKaine.com Owned by Conservative Activist

Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (D) brings a number of attractive qualities to the ticket as vice president, but Sen. Barack Obama's tech savvy campaign team will have to work to rescue a valuable URL if Kaine is chosen as the senator's running mate.

Right now, visitors to TimKaine.com are automatically redirected to the official website of Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling.

As reported by the Washington Post in 2005, the domain name TimKaine.com was registered in April 2001 by Matt Chancey, a young, self-described conservative Christian activist who lived in Harrisonburg, Virginia at the time.

While there were initial fears that he would use the Web site to tarnish Kaine's image, they were laid to rest when the Chancey chose to redirect visitors to Kaine's official lieutenant governor's web page. The Web site didn't become an issue and the Kaine campaign utilized Kaine2005.org, which is no longer active.

But it appears that Chancey never updated the redirect, and so visitors to TimKaine.com are now directed to the official Web site of Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling. If Kaine ends up being chosen as Obama's running mate and the pair wins the election, Bolling would succeed Kaine as governor of Virginia.

Most importantly, if Kaine is chosen, the Obama campaign will likely do everything they can to obtain the coveted URL. Chancey just lost a July 15 runoff for the GOP nomination for Public Service Commission president in Alabama.

The first draft of this item first appeared on Political Wire on July 29, 2008.

Birthday Complicates Timing for McCain

By Nathan L. Gonzales

With all of the talk about John McCain unveiling his running mate immediately after the Democratic National Convention to alleviate Barack Obama's bounce, there could be a wrinkle in McCain's potential plans: his birthday.

McCain turns 72 years old on August 29, the day after the Democrats' convention. So while the Arizona senator could swipe some media attention from Obama by announcing his vice presidential choice during the time between the conventions, the senator's birthday and age will be a prominent media story. And it will be contrasted even further with the age of his running mate.


This item first appeared on Political Wire on July 3, 2008.

Illinois 14: More Bad News for the GOP

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Bill Foster's (D) victory in Illinois 14 was another dose of bad news for the Republican Party, but the national repercussions likely lie somewhere between the heavy spin coming from both Republicans and Democrats. The results don't spell the end of the GOP, but demonstrates a party that still has considerable problems. And for Republicans who thought the 2006 election was their electoral floor, there could be a basement.

Foster, a scientist and wealthy businessman, defeated wealthy businessman Jim Oberweis (R) 53%-47% in a race that included heavy spending by both the NRCC and DCCC. National Republicans didn't have the money to spare, but desperately needed an electoral victory to improve the morale of a caucus suffering from massive retirements and depressed fundraising. The NRCC's significant spending paid off in last year's special elections, but they were unable to pull Oberweis across the line on Saturday.

The fact that Illinois 14 used to be represented by House Speaker Dennis Hastert is worth little more than a Democratic talking point. But Republicans should still be concerned because it's the type of district that they will have to defend more of in November, and will be extremely difficult to win if they can't regain some support from moderates and independent voters.

Sure, Republicans had district-specific problems like Oberweis' high unfavorable ratings and a Saturday special election in a state where the Republican Party is as organized as a soccer game with six year olds, but they shouldn't use Oberweis' problems to mask the party's damaged brand.

It's also a stretch to claim Illinois 14 was a proxy battle between Barack Obama and John McCain, and a precursor to November. First, the Republican Party is still being defined by George W. Bush, and in that respect, Saturday's special election took place in the 2006 environment instead of the unknown and undefined 2008 environment. Foster would have likely won the race without the Obama television ad.

Secondly, the special election took place in Obama's living room, so it's difficult to compare and project future down-ballot results with races elsewhere around the country. Illinois Congs. Mark Kirk (R-10th C.D.) and Peter Roskam (R-6th C.D.) have some reason for concern, but they are incumbents and much better candidates than Oberweis.

Finally, the entire country isn't going Democrat, as evidenced by huge Republican special election victories in Ohio and Virginia last year. Of the five outstanding special elections this year, four are not expected to be particularly competitive (including two GOP open seats), but Louisiana 6 is a potential trouble spot for Republicans. Overall, Republicans still have significant problems outside the loyal base, and they will continue to struggle in districts that require a significant number of independent and moderate voters to win unless the party's image improves.

This item also appeared on Political Wire on March 9, 2008.

A Big McCain Win, But Trouble in the Weeds

By Stuart Rothenberg

Sen. John McCain won a narrow victory in South Carolina on Saturday, but the final results and the exit poll continue to show a very fractured Republican party without a single candidate who has emerged as a consensus choice.

Once again the devil is in the details, and anyone who digs through the exit poll will find that the GOP race is still wide open.

McCain won again, as he did in New Hampshire, on the basis of strong support from self-described moderates and liberals, and by attracting the votes of Independents. He won among primary voters who believe abortion should be legal, who believe that illegal immigrants should have a path to citizenship and who had a negative opinion of the Bush Administration.

McCain and Huckabee each won about 30 percent of the GOP, with Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson drawing another 16 percent each. Huckabee easily won conservatives, evangelical Christians, and voters who favored deporting illegal aliens.

Did McCain measurably improve on his 2000 showing in South Carolina? Not if you compare the 2000 and 2008 exit polls.

In 2000, McCain won 29 percent of self-described conservatives. This time, he won just 26 percent. In 2000, he drew 26 percent of Republicans. This time he won 30 percent – an improvement but not a dramatic one. McCain won 48 percent of veterans in 2000 against George W. Bush but only 37 percent this time.

If McCain didn’t increase his percentages, why did he win? McCain won because of the fractured GOP field. Huckabee, Thompson and Romney divided the GOP vote and conservatives, allowing McCain to win with only a third of the total primary vote.

McCain’s formula for victory can work in states that allow Independents to vote, but it’s still unclear whether he can compete successfully in states with closed primaries, which includes a number of Super Tuesday states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Montana, New York, Oklahoma and West Virginia.

McCain’s victory is disappointing news for Rudy Giuliani, who is waiting in Florida. Giuliani’s poll numbers have been slipping, and McCain’s momentum could make him appealing to some Florida Republicans who had been considering the former New York Mayor.

Some observers surely will see McCain’s victory in South Carolina as fundamentally changing the GOP race. But the evidence is not there yet that that is the case. If you look deep, deep into the weeds, the Republicans are still in a very wide-open race.


This item also appeared on Political Wire.

Two Networks Flop in Reporting on New Poll

By Stuart Rothenberg

If there is something surprising about the new ABC News/Washington Post survey of likely Iowa Democratic caucus attendees, it isn’t the fact that Sen. Barack Obama (30 percent) holds a narrow lead over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (26 percent) and John Edwards (22 percent). It’s the curious way ABC and rival NBC reported on and interpreted the results during their Monday night national news programs.

For years, Independent political analysts have been warning about reporters’ tendencies to compare polls conducted by different polling firms, to over-interpret small changes in poll results and to treat the results of the most recent survey as if they are etched into stone. And yet that’s what the two networks seemed to do.

Interestingly (though probably not surprisingly), ABC News’s partner in the Iowa survey, the Washington Post, played the story in a much more measured and thoughtful way.

ABC’s World News opened with the network’s new survey, treating it with a breathless quality deserving of momentous breaking news. In fact, the ballot test in the new poll wasn’t all that different from the previous ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted in late July, which had Obama leading with 27 percent, to 26 percent each for both Clinton and Edwards. Obama’s lead both in July and in the most recent survey are statistically insignificant.

Oddly, ABC’s Kate Snow commented that one of the interesting things about the new survey is that likely caucus goers have “come to a different conclusion than what national polls say.” That’s a strange comment since the difference between the Iowa numbers and the national numbers has existed for many months, and many observers have questioned the networks’ focus on national survey data.

A minute or two later in the show, anchor Charles Gibson told chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulos that he was struck by “what retail politics this all is.” This is news? Gibson didn’t know that Iowa (and New Hampshire) are famous for being retail politics states?

NBC also botched its report of the new survey. First, Nightly News anchor Brian Williams, referring to the Iowa race and the new poll, said “It’s tightening among the Democrats,” and then NBC Chief White House Correspondent David Gregory compounded the error by telling viewers that “For the first time, [Obama] has a lead in the state.” Given the results of the previous ABC News/Washington Post poll, “tightening” is not an apt description. And of course, Obama held a “lead” in the July survey.

It’s worth noting, though nobody did, that the July ABC News/Washington Post survey was dramatically different than other surveys taken at the time. This does not mean that the July ABC News survey was wrong or that the current one is incorrect. It is a reminder, however, that it’s better to be cautious about reading too much into this, or any, poll – even if you are paying for the survey.

In fact, some campaign operatives with the Presidential campaigns are skeptical about many of the polls being conducted in Iowa because of the difficulty in predicting exactly who will participate in the January caucuses.

This item also appeared on Political Wire on November 20, 2007.

Louisiana Governor: Jindal Poised to Crack 50%

By Stuart Rothenberg

It ain’t over til it’s over, but Republican Bobby Jindal now appears likely to get at least 50% of the votes cast in Saturday’s Louisiana gubernatorial election. If he does, he will avoid a runoff and be elected governor, taking the office from the Democrats.

Jindal faces a handful of other candidates, including wealthy businessman John Georges (I), wealthy state Senator Walter Boasso (D) and Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D), and polls have been mixed about his chances of getting an absolute majority of the vote.

But private polling suggests that Jindal has been improving his standing over the past week, and the Republican’s get-out-the-vote operation appears to be a considerable additional advantage for him.

Turnout remains a huge unknown, and given the large number of candidates and Saturday balloting, anything could happen. But the odds have now improved dramatically that Jindal will attract at least 50% of the vote and win election without a runoff.

Coming on the heels on Jim Ogonowski’s unexpectedly strong showing in the Massachusetts 5 special election, a clear-cut Jindal win would allow Republicans to press their case that the political environment is not as bad as it was for them.

This item first appeared on Political Wire on October 18, 2007.

Mississippi 3: Pickering Seat Likely to Stay in GOP Column

Republicans are likely to retain the Mississippi Congressional District being left open because of the retirement of Rep. Chip Pickering, but that doesn’t mean that Mississippi 3rd District voters won't see a competitive campaign.

Contrary to initial reports, Pickering will not resign his seat. Instead, he will serve out his term but not seek reelection. GOP insiders describe the district as overflowing with potential Republican candidates and expect a multi-candidate primary.

Atop the list are two statewide names: Tate Reeves and Amy Tuck.

Reeves is Mississippi's 32 year old state Treasurer, the first Republican to hold the office since Reconstruction. Elected in 2003, he is a strong fundraiser and has been a high profile state official. While some insiders have already assumed that he will be a candidate for governor in 2011, the Congressional open seat could have appeal for him.

Tuck, 44, is finishing her second term as Lieutenant Governor. She is term limited and cannot seek reelection. A former Democrat who switched to the GOP in 2002, she is widely regarded as a strong campaigner. "Nobody works the crowd better than Amy," says one savvy Republican about the woman everyone describes as "a political animal."

But Tuck's Southern populism, which includes support for extensive government spending on public works projects, means that she has a problem with some base Republicans, and she hasn’t always agreed with Governor Haley Barbour (R).

Other Republicans who are being mentioned include state Senator Charlie Ross, who recently lost the GOP primary for Lieutenant Governor, state Senator Walter Michel and State Transportation Commissioner Dick Hall.

Observers say that it is unlikely that Barbour or the state party can narrow the GOP field to a single consensus candidate. "Congressional seats are lifetime appointments in Mississippi," jokes one Republican strategist who expects a number of candidates.

Pickering had expected to run for the Senate by this time, either for the seat of Sen. Trent Lott (R) or Sen. Thad Cochran (R). But Lott surprised observers by seeking reelection in 2006, and Cochran appears to be running for another term next year. That would keep Pickering in the House for an extended period, which may explain his decision.

Pickering's exit from Congress doesn’t mean that he will not run for the Senate when a Mississippi Senate comes open.

This initial analysis first appeared on Political Wire.

11:30AM UPDATE: More names continue to be floated in the Pickering open seat. The two big names still being mentioned on the GOP side are outgoing Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck and state Treasurer Tate Reeves. State Sen. Charlie Ross, who just lost a primary for lieutenant governor, also is on most lists.

Among the new Republican names being mentioned are columnist/radio talk show host Craig Ziemba of Meridien (a former military pilot), Rankin County GOP Chairman Gregg Harper and state Rep. Greg Snowden.

Jackson tax lawyer Delbert Hosemann, who recently won a primary and is the GOP nominee for Secretary of State, could also run for Congress if he loses his races later this year. If neither Ross nor Hosemann end up running for Congress, state Sen. Dean Kirby might consider the race. Hosemann lost a 1998 U.S. House race to Democrat Ronnie Shows.

On the Democratic side, the top name mentioned is former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. “It makes me feel good that people still remember by name,” Musgrove, who lost his bid for reelection to Republican Haley Barbour in 2003, told the Report. But while he didn’t completely rule out a run, he made it clear that he is not actively considering the race. We would be very surprised if he sought the seat.

After Musgrove, two additional Democrats receive mention: State Rep. Bobby Moak of Bogue Chitto (who is a friend of Mississippi author John Grisham) and former state senator Rob Smith. Smith is the Democratic nominee for secretary of state, and like Hosemann, could consider a U.S. House bid if he loses in the fall.

3:00PM UPDATE: Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck (R) is officially out of the race. A statement today from her office read, “Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck said Friday she will not be a candidate for Congressman Pickering’s seat.”

But the list of potential candidates on the Republican side continues to grow. Deputy Director of the Mississippi Development Authority Whit Hughes, Mississippi State Director for USDA Rural Development John Rounsaville, and former Public Service Commissioner Mike Callahan are all mentioned as potentially interested. In addition, GOP operatives close to the governor have been mentioned.

For the Democrats, former Gene Taylor (D) aide Shawn Bullard is mentioned. He is a former TV journalist in Biloxi who is now president of the Duetto Group in Arlington.

DSCC Could Hit Recruiting Mother Lode

By Stuart Rothenberg

While Democratic strategists have not yet started to count their chickens, there is increasing evidence that two key Democrat Senate recruits are moving toward '08 Senate races.

Former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, who narrowly lost a 2002 Senate race against Republican John Sununu, has reversed her earlier decision against running next year and, after a heavy recruiting effort by many Democrats, including Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, appears to be leaning toward a re-match with Sununu.

Insiders stress that Shaheen has not made a final decision, but they agree that the betting at the Harvard Institute of Politics, where she is the director, and in savvy political circles in New Hampshire, is that she is now likely to enter the Senate race.

In Nebraska, former Senator (and former Governor) Bob Kerrey also appears to be inching toward entering the state’s Senate contest, assuming that incumbent Senator Chuck Hagel (R) decides not to seek reelection. Kerrey would not challenge Hagel if the Republican decides to seek another term, which many think is not likely.

Kerrey, who is telling friends that his wife has signed off on a Senate race, has already paid for a survey and contacted operatives who worked for him in the past. And he is the keynote speaker at this weekend’s annual Democratic event, the Morrison-Exon Dinner, on June 23. "He wouldn’t go and do the dinner if he wasn’t serious about the Senate," one knowledgeable Democratic insider told me.

Based on early recruiting, Democrats have so far put three GOP Senate seats in play, the open seat in Colorado and seats held by Norm Coleman (Minn.) and Susan Collins (Maine). They are still looking for a top tier candidate against Oregon’s Gordon Smith.

Democratic chances for another mega-year in the Senate would also be enhanced by possible additional Republican Senate retirements in Virginia and Nebraska.

This item first appeared on Political Wire on June 21, 2007.

Dean's Empty Definition of Easter

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Two recent press releases from the Democratic National Committee reflect the party's continuous struggle to understand evangelicals in America.

A March 30 press release entitled "DNC Offers Passover Greetings" included a joint statement by Chairman Howard Dean and DNC Vice Chair Susan Turnbull. The release was appropriate and timely and included their definition of the event, though it ignored the religious aspect. "On Monday night, Jews around the world will begin celebrating Passover, a week-long holiday that commemorates the Israelites' freedom from persecution and slavery."

Then, a week later, the DNC celebrated Easter with another statement from Dean, including his definition of the holiday. "Easter Sunday is a joyful celebration. The holiday represents peace, redemption and renewal, a theme which brings hope to people of all faiths."

Dean's Easter statement seems to bend over backwards not to mention Jesus and demonstrates either a misunderstanding of the evangelical community or a fear of alienating other voting blocs with religious talk.

"This press release, absent any reference to Jesus, without whom the Easter resurrection story is meaningless, is apparently a sad reflection of a 'lowest common denominator' religious outreach of the Democratic party," said Richard Cizik, Vice President of Government Affairs for the National Association of Evangelicals, "Wake up and smell the Easter lilies! This kind of outreach will not pass the smell test of any evangelical."

Frankly, Webster's New World Dictionary, which is not regarded as a particularly spiritual or political source, has a better definition of Easter: "an annual Christian festival celebrating the resurrection of Jesus."

The DNC statement is striking, particularly since Democratic outreach to evangelicals is on-going (including Dean's speech at Eastern University just last week) and the importance Democratic strategists have put on using the right language to appeal to evangelicals. Democrats like to point to recent conservative evangelical leaders' attacks on Cizik as evidence that they are making progress, but based on Cizik's comments, evangelicals aren't moving en masse toward the Democratic Party anytime soon.

Dean and the DNC simply missed the target this Easter. The press release was astonishing because it's sole purpose was to acknowledge a religious holiday, yet it was painfully-worded to avoid being religious. If this press release was part of the Democratic Party's outreach to evangelicals, they probably would have been better off just skipping it altogether.

This item first appeared on Political Wire on April 10, 2007.

The Impact of "Hillary 1984"

By Stuart Rothenberg

Nobody should be surprised by the overreaction to the Hillary Clinton/Apple pseudo TV spot posted on YouTube. Reporters (and political consultants) simply love anything new and creative, even if its political impact is non-existent.

The ad, fashioned after an Apple ad from 1984, got tons of airtime earlier this week as the cable networks and talking heads buzzed about how creative it was, how technology is changing politics and what it all means for the future.

Here’s a news flash: the "ad" will have no political impact. Entertaining: Absolutely. Creative? Certainly. An interesting example of modern technology? Sure. But the ad won’t change any votes, and it is unlikely to create or re-make impressions of Senators Clinton or Barack Obama.

Interestingly, more people will see the ad on or hear about it from "traditional" cable or broadcast television networks than will watch it on YouTube. So if the ad had any impact anyway, it would be because of the reach of traditional forms of media, which played the spot repeatedly.

But at the end of the day, the YouTube ad will be a footnote about the campaign. It's yet another example of the tactical nature of this 2008 campaign, and while tactics can and do matter, the Democratic race will be decided in Iowa and New Hampshire by a relative handful of Democratic participants, not by Washington, D.C. insiders who are all aflutter with the latest hip happening.

Technology obviously changes campaigns, and one day YouTube, Facebook and the Internet overall may determine who wins and who doesn't. But for the 2008 cycle, it’s still those dreary "old media" that matter, no matter how many people want to get ahead of the curve and how creative and interesting the new technologies of the day.

This item first appeared on Political Wire on March 20, 2007.

Kentucky Governor: Fletcher to Hit Airwaves

Embattled Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) is set to launch a statewide media blitz next week in his effort to win renomination and ultimately reelection.

The governor’s first term has been marred by investigations into his administration’s hiring practices, resulting in Fletcher drawing two primary challengers, former Cong. Anne Northup and wealthy businessman Billy Harper.

A February 9-11 SurveyUSA automated poll conducted for television stations in Cincinnati and Louisville showed Fletcher with 36% approve/59% disapprove job ratings among all voters and a slim 33%-31% edge over Northup in the GOP primary in a March 3-5 SurveyUSA poll. A January 28-29 Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted for Northup showed her even with the governor at 39% in the primary. Most recently, Fletcher’s own lieutenant governor has been publicly critical of the governor’s time in office.

While Harper has personal money to burn and went on the airwaves last year, Fletcher’s cash advantage over Northup (who lost reelection last November) is allowing him to get out early in an attempt to right the ship.

Fletcher is scheduled to go on the air on Tuesday, March 13, with a 60-second ad, at a total cost of about $392,000. The buy includes broadcast and cable in the Louisville (900+ gross ratings points), Bowling Green (700+ points), and Lexington (500+ points) markets, which covers approximately 65% of the state. The ad is also scheduled to air on cable only in the Paducah, Cincinnati (OH), Charleston (WV), and Evansville (IN) markets that overlap the state.

The primary is set for May 22. Candidates must reach 40% in order to avoid a June 26 runoff. Seven Democrats are vying to be their party’s nominee in November. If Fletcher is the GOP nominee, Democrats view Kentucky as a top takeover opportunity. And even more than a few Republicans think only Northup has a chance to hold the governorship.

This item first appeared on Political Wire on March 6, 2007.

Biden: How to Be Wrong and Right at the Same Time

By Stuart Rothenberg

When Delaware Senator and Presidential hopeful Joe Biden (D) described Illinois Senator Barack Obama as "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy," he created the ultimate sin: He used inelegant and politically incorrect language to make a perfectly correct point.

While I'm not entirely sure what the Delaware Democrat meant by "clean," and one could argue whether all previous black Presidential hopefuls have been bright or articulate, I think it was pretty clear that Biden was trying to say that Obama is the first African American who is a serious contender for the Democratic Presidential nomination and for the Presidency.

In a written statement responding to the flap, Obama said that Biden’s comments were "historically inaccurate." "Jesse Jackson, Shirley Chisholm, Carol Moseley Braun and Al Sharpton gave a voice to many important issues through their campaigns, and no one would call them inarticulate," continued the Illinois Senator.

It's interesting that Obama singled out "articulate" in responding to Biden. He did not address the other qualities Biden mentioned, except to say that Jackson, Sharpton, Chisholm and Braun "gave voice" to important issues. And, most notably, he did not address the question of whether previous candidates were "mainstream." That omission was striking, since it goes to the heart of the electability question, which is what Biden really was talking about.

In fact, Biden’s general point was right. None of the previous African American candidates had a chance of winning. Some had checkered pasts and had uttered their own controversial comments (possibly making them not "clean," in Biden’s use of the term). Others simply lacked the national stature and leadership style that credible contenders need. Obama is a different kind of candidate. And that's all Biden meant. But when you are in the national limelight, you better choose your words more carefully.

This item first appeared on Political Wire on February 1, 2007.

Musical Chairs in Georgia in 2010?

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Don't be surprised in four years if a couple significant Georgia Republicans attempt to switch roles. In 2010, Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) will be term-limited and could very well seek an open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Sen. Johnny Isakson (R), who would run for governor, according to one GOP insider familiar with the situation.

The scenario certainly isn't far-fetched. Even though Isakson is only in his first term in the Senate, the governorship has been in his sights for years, going back to 1990 when he lost to Zell Miller (D) 53%-46%. And Perdue has a decade's worth of experience as a legislator in the Georgia state senate, including a stint as president pro tempore. According to the GOP source, both men would likely endorse the other in the maneuver as well.

Four years is probably two eternities in politics, but for any Democrats looking past an uphill battle against Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) this cycle, 2010 may not provide any better opportunities.

This item first appeared on Political Wire on January 31, 2007.