Thursday, February 04, 2010

IL Governor Moved to Toss-Up

In Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn's (D) narrow primary victory exposed some significant weaknesses heading into the general election. State Comptroller Dan Hynes surged late but didn't have enough time to overcome Quinn and now Republicans are happily repeating Hynes' attack ads and themes. Quinn will face state Sen. Bill Brady (R) or state Sen. Kirk Dillard (R) in the general election, but the overall political environment may be Quinn's toughest foe. Move from Clear Advantage to Toss-Up.

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (6 R, 7 D)
  • Brewer (R-AZ)
  • CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
  • CT Open (Rell, R)
  • HI Open (Lingle, R)
  • RI Open (Carcieri, R)
  • VT Open (Douglas, R)
  • Culver (D-IA)
  • KS Open (Parkinson, D)
  • MI Open (Granholm, D)
  • OK Open (Henry, D)
  • PA Open (Rendell, D)
  • TN Open (Bredesen, D)
  • WY Open (Freudenthal, D)
Toss-Up (2 R, 4 D)
  • FL Open (Crist, R)
  • MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
  • CO Open (Ritter, D)
  • Quinn (D-IL) *
  • Strickland (D-OH)
  • WI Open (Doyle, D)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)
  • Gibbons (R-NV)
  • GA Open (Perdue, R)
  • Patrick (D-MA)
  • ME Open (Baldacci, D)
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 2 D)
  • Perry (R-TX)
  • AL Open (Riley, R)
  • SC Open (Sanford, R)
  • Paterson (D-NY)
  • NM Open (Richardson, D)
Currently Safe (5 R, 4 D)
  • Herbert (R-UT)
  • Heineman (R-NE)
  • Otter (R-ID)
  • Parnell (R-AK)
  • SD Open (Rounds, R)
  • Beebe (D-AR)
  • Lynch (D-NH)
  • O'Malley (D-MD)
  • OR Open (Kulongoski, D)