New Print Edition: GOP to Gain 5-7 Senate Seats

The February 19, 2010 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. Here is a brief excerpt from this edition:

Senate Overview – The Lay of the Land

The likelihood of Democratic Senate gains evaporated over the summer and fall, and it is now the GOP that is headed for gains. Eight of the dozen most competitive Senate seats up this year are now held by Democrats, meaning that Republicans have plenty of opportunities for net gains. The retirements of Byron Dorgan and Evan Bayh, combined with Beau Biden’s decision not to run, has damaged Democratic prospects.

The possibility of a GOP blockbuster year has increased noticeably. It depends, at least in part, on Republicans holding onto all of their seats. A year ago, that looked almost impossible, but it is now quite possible. Primary contests could affect both parties’ prospects. Nasty, divisive primaries that produce weak or weakened nominees in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Colorado, Nevada and/or Arkansas could have an impact on net GOP gains.

While events between now and November will affect the outlook for November, the GOP seems most likely to net 5-7 Senate seats, with a 8-seat gain certainly possible (but still short of the 10-seat gain the GOP would need for control). That means Democrats are likely to retain control of the Senate, but at a dramatically reduced level.

Subscribers to the print edition get a state-by-state analysis as well as recent polling in each race. The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as updated House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.