Kentucky Senate: Lunsford Parts Ways with Media Consultant

With less than 100 days remaining until Election Day, Democrat Bruce Lunsford has parted ways with his media consultants, Struble Eichenbaum.

Lunsford, a wealthy businessman who is expected to invest millions of dollars of his own money into the campaign, was a late entry into the race against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R). He won a competitive Democratic primary on May 20 and immediately turned his sights on McConnell in what is expected to be a competitive but difficult challenge to the long time Republican lawmaker.

Struble Eichenbaum was part of the consulting team that helped Steve Beshear (D) knock off incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) in last year’s Kentucky gubernatorial race. Lunsford lost to Beshear in the primary, and was subsequently recruited to run against McConnell, in large part because of his personal wealth.

Fred Yang of Garin Hart Yang worked for Beshear, and against Lunsford, in 2007, but remains part of Lunsford’s Senate team.

Republicans remain extremely confident about McConnell’s chances, privately noting that they have plenty of ammunition against Lunsford.

Hey, Big Spender: Incumbents’ Strategy Differs

By Nathan L. Gonzales

In a year when many GOP incumbents are considered vulnerable, there appear to be two classes of Republicans emerging when it comes to campaign cash: those who spent money early and forfeited their cash advantage and those who maintain their advantage by either saving their money or raising enough to compensate for early spending.

Alaska Rep. Don Young (R) has only a narrow cash-on-hand advantage over the likely Democratic nominee, former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz, after blowing through more than $2.3 million through June 30. The bulk of Young’s spending has been on attorneys’ fees, and the Congressman is in serious jeopardy of losing renomination in the Aug. 26 GOP primary.

In Washington’s 8th district, Rep. Dave Reichert (R) spent $805,000 through June 30 and now has less cash on hand than his opponent, Darcy Burner (D). Reichert’s high-overhead fundraiser with President Bush and an expensive fundraising adviser were key factors. Through June 30, Burner had more cash on hand, $1.2 million to $916,000.

Florida Rep. Tom Feeney (R) has met his fundraising match in former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D). The Congressman raised $1.4 million through June 30, compared to $1.1 million for his Democratic opponent. But because Feeney, the former Speaker of the Florida House, spent $663,000 already, he trailed in cash on hand, $936,000 to $795,000.

Missouri Rep. Sam Graves (R) is essentially even in cash on hand with former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (D) after spending heavily on early television ads.

Other GOP incumbents, such as Michigan Rep. Joe Knollenberg ($822,000), Nevada Rep. Jon Porter ($900,000), Pennsylvania Rep. Phil English ($745,000), and Virginia Rep. Thelma Drake ($661,000), have also spent heavily early and led their opponents in available funds.

A number of Republicans are perennial Democratic targets and spent money early in their effort to solidify their standing. They’ve also left themselves in a good cash-on-hand situation, despite their spending, heading into the home stretch.

Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.) spent $693,000 through June 30, running a full campaign operation for months, but had almost $1.7 million in the bank. His opponent, Jim Himes (D), had more than $1.4 million. Rep. Robin Hayes (R-N.C.) spent $1.2 million, and still had almost the same amount on hand, and four times that of his opponent, Larry Kissell (D).

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) faces a tough re-election race in the heart of Barack Obama country. The GOP Congressman spent almost $1.1 million through June 30, but had more than $2.8 million on hand, the second most cash on hand for a Republican in the House, behind only Ron Paul (Texas), the erstwhile presidential contender. Kirk faces a rematch with 2006 Democratic nominee Dan Seals ($1.2 million cash on hand) this fall.

Freshman Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) also sits in a competitive, suburban Chicago district, but he does not appear to have a tough Democratic challenger. Roskam spent $684,000 through June 30. Pennsylvania Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) also spent a lot of money early, to the tune of $1.1 million. Despite paying a $120,000 Federal Election Commission fine, the Congressman still had almost a 3-1 cash advantage over his opponent.

And in Florida’s 13th district, Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) still maintains an almost 3-1 cash advantage, even after spending nearly $1.4 million through June 30.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) spent $947,000 on her race through June 30. But she still had an astounding $2.8 million in the bank, and appears to be slipping further down the list of GOP opportunities.

Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) has already spent $750,000 on his re-election in California’s 11th district. But fortunately for him, his GOP opponent Dean Andal has disappointed as a fundraiser, and McNerney led in cash on hand, $1.4 million to $663,000.

Two other freshman Democrats have spent a considerable amount of money, but still don’t know their GOP opponents. Florida Rep. Tim Mahoney spent $1.35 million through June 30 on his re-election and Rep. Tim Walz of Minnesota spent $841,000.

In Illinois’s 8th district, Rep. Melissa Bean (D) spent almost $1.2 million through June 30, but she still had more than $1.5 in the bank and the self-funding threat of her challenger, Steve Greenberg (R), has yet to materialize.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on July 29, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Illinois 6: Roskam’s Poll Shows Him in Strong Position

Freshman Rep. Peter Roskam (R) is in strong position for the fall, despite trying to win reelection in Sen. Barack Obama’s (D) back yard, according to a poll just released by his campaign.

According to a July 20-22 survey by Public Opinion Strategies for the congressman’s campaign, Roskam leads Democrat Jill Morgenthaler 59 percent to 29 percent in a general election match up. Roskam also appears to be well-liked, enjoying 59 percent favorable to 20 percent unfavorable personal ratings in the survey.

Obama is expected to do very well in the 6th District at the top of the ticket, and is winning it by 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent, over Sen. John McCain (R). In 2004, President Bush won the district with 53 percent over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.

Last cycle, Roskam won the open seat 51 percent to 49 percent over Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth, in one of the most competitive and most expensive House races in the country. Roskam was an obvious target this cycle because of the closeness of his 2006 race. But Morgenthaler’s candidacy has disappointed. She finished June with $278,000 in the bank, compared to $1.2 million for Roskam.

Top Spending House Candidates Meet Mixed Fate

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Spending the most money in a race doesn’t guarantee you a seat in Congress.

In California’s 4th district, former Rep. Doug Ose (R) spent $6.9 million, making him the top spending House candidate this cycle to date, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Ose lost in the June Republican primary, derailing his comeback bid.

GOP businessman Jim Oberweis, who lost the special election in Illinois’ 14th district, spent more than $4.1 million through June 30. He is the GOP nominee once again in the fall general election, but is the underdog.

Businessman Dan Meuser lost the GOP primary in Pennsylvania’s 10th district after spending almost $3.5 million.

Internet entrepreneur Jared Polis will try to buck the trend on Aug. 12, when he faces a competitive three-way Democratic primary in Colorado’s 2nd district. He spent almost $4 million through June 30, with weeks left to spend more of his personal money.

Businessman and scientist Bill Foster (D) has spent almost $3.5 million this cycle, winning, and trying to hold, the Illinois 14th district seat. Another special election winner, Niki Tsongas (D), spent almost $3 million through June 30 in Massachusetts’ 5th district. Both candidates are heavy favorites in November.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), who spent $2.6 million, and House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.), who spent $2.5 million, also made the top 10 list, but their seats aren’t in jeopardy either. Their money is doled out primarily to other candidates instead of their own re-election races.

Alaska Republican Rep. Don Young is in the political fight of his life and has to survive in both the primary and general elections. Young has already spent more than $2.3 million this cycle, through June 30, although a chunk of that has gone to legal fees and not necessarily his re-election.

The most curious House candidate to crack the top 10 is physician Deborah Honeycutt (R) in Georgia’s 13th district. She ran unopposed in the primary, but spent more than $2.4 million through June 25 in her long-shot race against Rep. David Scott (D).

Honeycutt raised more than $1.3 million last cycle, when she lost to Scott 69 percent to 31 percent. After raising money from direct mail targeted at values voters, less than 10 percent of her campaign money was spent on media and campaign materials, according to the Center for Responsive Politics Web site.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on July 28, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.