Melancon Takes On a Second Opponent: BP

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Rep. Charlie Melancon hasn’t made much headway in his contest against Sen. David Vitter (R) over the past seven months, but now the Democrat has a new enemy in the Louisiana Senate race: BP.

With oil from the Deepwater Horizon leak threatening the shores and marshes of his 3rd Congressional district, Melancon has dramatically increased his profile. He’s been making the rounds on the cable news talk shows and received plenty of national attention for his post-spill efforts.

But Melancon must be careful not to look too political in a time of crisis, and it’s unclear whether he has fundamentally changed the dynamics of the Senate race. Early indications are that he still has a lot of work to do.

A new Public Policy Polling (D) survey released exclusively to Roll Call showed Melancon trailing Vitter by 9 points, 46 percent to 37 percent. Vitter led by a dozen points in July 2009, the last time PPP surveyed the contest.

Democrats will cheer the results showing the incumbent under 50 percent and with a 45 percent job approval rating (compared with 43 percent disapproval). But Melancon’s numbers weren’t much better. The Democrat’s personal rating was 29 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable.

The automated survey of 492 Louisiana voters was conducted June 12-13. It had a 4.5-point margin of error.

“The oil spill has presented an opportunity that never would have come up,” according to one Democratic operative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.

Before the leak, Melancon’s campaign was a collection of attacks on Vitter (largely harping on the Senator’s connection to the “D.C. Madam” prostitution ring, including alleged incidents that happened almost a decade ago but surfaced about three years ago), while touting Melancon’s record on local issues (including cracking down on Chinese drywall) and highlighting tours around the state by his wife, Peachy.

Now Melancon is on a crusade against BP.

The Congressman has created online petitions calling for the firing of BP CEO Tony Hayward and railing against any effort to cap the financial liability of the company. He’s also asked people to submit their own cleanup ideas through his campaign website.

Online petitions have little practical effect but are used to generate media attention and, more importantly, capture people’s e-mail addresses and zip codes so that the campaign can solicit them later for a contribution or present them with a volunteer opportunity.

“The only reason Charlie got into public service was to help people,” said Bradley Beychok, Melancon’s campaign manager. “That’s why he ran for Congress, and that’s why he will be elected to the U.S. Senate. Politics is the last thing on his mind.”

But Melancon’s campaign has been relentless. One of the Congressman’s challenges is to distinguish what he is doing to help the recovery effort from what Vitter is doing in order to fundamentally alter the trajectory of the race. Democrats believe Vitter’s initial idea to cap BP’s liability gave them an opportunity to make that distinction. Melancon believes BP should be fully responsible and is calling the Senator’s idea a “taxpayer bailout” for the oil company.

On Friday, the Democrat’s campaign released a “Melancon Memeaux” titled “Putting People Before Politics.” This is after a conference call with reporters that attacked Vitter for politicizing the oil leak crisis.

“He’s not necessarily setting himself apart, just more theatrics,” according to one GOP strategist, taking a jab at Melancon, who got choked up during a Congressional subcommittee hearing — a moment that got some national attention. “He’ll need to do all that and more to make up lost ground.”

Before the crisis, Melancon consistently trailed Vitter by at least 10 points in hypothetical general election matchups.

An April 19-23 Southern Media & Opinion Research survey for businessman Lane Grigsby showed Vitter with a lead of 49 percent to 31 percent over Melancon. The survey had a 4-point error margin. Rasmussen Reports had the incumbent winning by 16 points in early April, with a 4.5-point error margin, and is polling the race again this month.

Melancon’s own poll (conducted in late February by Anzalone Liszt Research with a 3.5-point error margin) showed him down by 10 points, but Democrats were encouraged that Vitter was under 50 percent even though the incumbent led 48 percent to 38 percent.

There is no doubt that people are upset about the spill — a “deep-seated disgust” according to one GOP consultant — but there isn’t any evidence that voters disproportionately blame Vitter.

Aside from BP, Republicans believe President Barack Obama is on the hook for significant blame. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) has been a vocal critic of the federal response and is given high marks for his performance since the leak began.

Melancon has tried to distance himself from the president, and Vitter’s attacks, by opposing Obama’s six-month moratorium on offshore drilling. Louisiana politicians are in agreement that the oil industry is too critical to the local economy to stop drilling.

While everyone is responding in their own way, Melancon is painting himself as the most effective — a campaign theme that the Democrat will use throughout the race. For now, he’s riding the wave of earned media because the paid advertising phase of the campaign is still weeks, if not months, away.

No one is certain where the oil leak will rank in the minds of Louisiana voters by the time Labor Day rolls around, or whether the issue is the game-changer that Melancon needed. The Democrat has been looking for ways to cut through clutter of other Senate races across the country. Earlier this year, veteran Democratic strategist and pundit James Carville, a proud Cajun, was making media calls talking about Melancon’s prospects.

Republican strategists are not oblivious to Vitter’s weaknesses and understand that Melancon, a former sugar industry lobbyist, is probably Democrats’ best possible candidate. But they also believe that the developing anti-Democratic wave will be Vitter’s saving grace.

This story first appeared in Roll Call and CQPolitics.com on June 15, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Can Polling Memos Change the Narrative About 2010 Races?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Here’s a bulletin for you: Anytime a campaign releases a polling memo, it is making an argument, not merely offering survey data for your information. Polling memos aren’t written to make you smarter.

This shouldn’t need to be said, of course, but when I see reporters swallowing spin as if it were information — as one Louisiana Gannett reporter did recently in writing about the state’s Senate race — I get very uncomfortable.

A number of Democratic polling memos from reputable polling firms have been circulating over the past couple of weeks — two from Anzalone Liszt Research about the Louisiana Senate race and about Rep. Bobby Bright’s (D-Ala.) re-election prospects, and one from Harstad Strategic Research about the Colorado Senate race — and readers should understand what’s going on with them.

I am not, I must emphasize, challenging the data. These are credible polling firms, and almost every pollster I know has released these kinds of memos in the past. I am only using Anzalone Liszt and Harstad as examples.

The purpose of the Louisiana poll memo is to alter the developing narrative that the state’s Senate race is essentially over and that Sen. David Vitter (R) won’t be seriously threatened by Rep. Charlie Melancon (D). The Alabama memo seeks to create a sense of inevitability about Bright’s re-election prospects and undercut GOP challenger Martha Roby’s credibility (and fundraising and buzz).

The Colorado memo seeks to rebut polling that shows appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) trailing in his race and to help him build momentum for his primary and the fall election.

I recently asked a pollster, not for attribution of course, about these kinds of memos and received a gloriously forthright answer: “Anyone who does a survey for strategic reasons isn’t going to release strategic information.”

Pollsters say that their surveys present only a “snapshot” of a race at a particular moment. That’s true. But often the snapshot presented in a memo is misleading, and the pollster knows it. Memos include numbers intended to build an argument that seems empirically based but isn’t. They don’t present the whole picture, because the whole picture isn’t in their client’s interest.

Even highly regarded, methodologically legit pollsters tell me to call them up privately if I want to get their real assessment about a race — don’t go by the memo they release. I get this from both Republican and Democratic pollsters, and I have received the same advice for years.

Actually, most pollsters hate to write these kinds of memos, but their clients want them to create a more favorable narrative, so they write them, usually using their words very carefully.

The Bright memo begins “Congressman Bobby Bright is well positioned to win re-election in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional district. Bright’s personal popularity and positive job rating are extremely high.” The memo looks at the Congressman’s excellent favorable/unfavorable ratings, respondents’ answers to questions about Bright’s qualities and his leads of 24 to 32 points over possible November opponents.

The memo ends with the following paragraph: “Bright leads Roby among virtually all gender, race, and geographic subgroups. Bright earns double-digit margins with white voters, African American voters, Independent voters, and in both the Montgomery and Dothan media markets.”

Bright, a conservative Democrat, won election to Congress because of the Democratic wave in 2008. He beat a politically damaged GOP nominee who had emerged from a bruising primary by six-tenths of a point (50.2 percent to 49.6 percent), winning by 1,790 votes out of more than 286,000 cast.

However highly regarded Bright is, this is a Republican district. President Barack Obama drew only 37 percent of the vote in it in 2008, losing it to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by more than 25 points.

Bright does start off well-positioned for his re-election bid, but he is almost guaranteed to have a razor-close race against Roby, a Montgomery city councilwoman and the likely GOP nominee. Maybe he’ll win; maybe he won’t. Whatever the outcome, he won’t win by 20 points or carry white voters by double digits.

If Bright holds on to win re-election, he’ll win by a point or two. Given that, the Anzalone Liszt poll tells us little about November. Voters apparently don’t know anything about the Republican candidates, and it’s so far from Election Day that most voters haven’t given much thought to what their vote might mean or who they really will vote for in the fall.

The Bright memo reminds me of a June 15, 2009, Anzalone Liszt polling memo that listed all of Democrat Creigh Deeds’ advantages in the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial race.

That memo asserted: “Deeds has a high favorable rating, and a lower unfavorable rating, even though McDonnell spent more on television [during the primary]. Deeds also holds critical issue advantages that will make it difficult for McDonnell to make up ground.”

The memo said that Deeds held a 4-point lead in the race and was able to win votes across the state “including traditional Republican strongholds.” “At the same time, McDonnell will have a difficult time making inroads in increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia,” it asserted.

Of course, McDonnell won 59 percent to 41 percent, turning a 4-point deficit in the poll into an 18-point victory. Deeds didn’t do well in “Republican strongholds,” and McDonnell carried Fairfax County, the state’s largest county and the epitome of what is meant by “Northern Virginia.”

Polling memos sometimes contain useful nuggets of data, but they often leave out other important data and stress the narrative the campaign wants to create. Don’t take them at face value.


This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on March 18, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

By Stuart Rothenberg

A little more than 10 years ago (Jan. 17, 2000, to be exact), I began writing my “Dangerous Dozen” columns about open House seats, and the recent flurry of retirements means there finally are enough to fill a list for the 2010 cycle.

The fact that so many of the districts on this list are currently held by Democrats reflects how strongly the political landscape is tilting toward the GOP. As always, races toward the top of the list are the most likely to change party control, but every race on this list is a serious possibility to flip.

Tennessee’s 6th. With few Democratic officeholders downballot in this Middle Tennessee district that went 62 percent for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008 and 60 percent for President George W. Bush in 2004, you can already put retiring Rep. Bart Gordon’s (D) seat into the Republican column. The GOP primary will select the district’s next Member of Congress.

Louisiana’s 3rd. The field hasn’t really started to develop in the race to succeed Rep. Charlie Melancon (D), but the fundamentals look terrible for Democrats in a midterm election year with President Barack Obama in the White House. Bush carried the district in 2004 with 58 percent, and McCain won it with 61 percent four years later. Only a Republican screw-up could keep this district blue.

Delaware’s At-Large. Rep. Mike Castle’s Senate run is a double-edged sword for Republicans, since the party will have a hard time holding his House seat. It isn’t impossible, of course, but they’ll need an unusually strong nominee (and a strong political wave) to beat the likely Democratic nominee, former Lt. Gov. John Carney.

Kansas’ 3rd. For Democrats, this looks like a bad cycle for Rep. Dennis Moore to retire and this seat to come open. The party is not competitive in the two big statewide contests this year, so both national and state dynamics favor the GOP. Both primary fields are wide open, though the early favorite on the Republican side may be the party’s 2008 nominee, former state Sen. Nick Jordan. Of course, another ideological split within the local GOP could get Democrats back into the picture.

Tennessee’s 8th. Rep. John Tanner (D) is retiring, and Democrats got a solid candidate in state Sen. Roy Herron, a strong fundraiser and veteran officeholder. But Tennessee could be a giant headache for Democrats, and being a longtime Democratic state legislator may be more of a liability than an asset in 2010.

Hawaii’s 1st. The yet-to-be-scheduled special election to fill Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s expected open seat could be another rude surprise for Democrats. Without a runoff, Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) could sneak past multiple Democratic hopefuls to give Republicans another seat — and a major public relations victory before the midterms. Democrats need to figure out a way to keep the number of their candidates to a minimum.

Arkansas’ 1st. Bush carried this conservative northeast Arkansas district with 52 percent, but McCain drew a solid 59 percent four years later. Plenty of Democratic officeholders are looking to succeed retiring Rep. Marion Berry (D), while Republican options appear fewer. The key question mark is the size of the GOP wave and how disastrous the cycle is for Democrats in Arkansas.

Illinois’ 10th. If the seat held by Rep. Mark Kirk (R) had come open in 2006 or 2008, it would have been a slam-dunk for Democrats. But the environment is very different. The outlook for November depends somewhat on Tuesday’s primaries, but there is no doubt that Democrats see this as a rare takeover opportunity this cycle.

Arkansas’ 2nd. Retiring Rep. Vic Snyder’s (D) central Arkansas district went narrowly for Bush in 2004 and voted 54 percent for McCain in 2008. Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin gives the GOP a solid nominee, but a number of serious Democrats are looking at the race.

New Hampshire’s 2nd. Oh how different things looked in New Hampshire a year ago. Democrats finished up their near sweep of the Granite State, and the GOP’s fortunes there suddenly looked like any other New England state. But the national mood has changed, and GOP optimism has soared. Former Rep. Charles Bass leads a large GOP field, while Democrats have a primary of their own to succeed Rep. Paul Hodes (D).

Pennsylvania’s 7th. The ranking of the last two races depends on whether you are making a selection based on where the race is now or where it may be in the fall. Former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan gives the GOP a serious likely nominee. The district no longer leans Republican — Bush won 47 percent in 2004 and McCain only 43 percent in 2008 — and Democrats have a top-tier candidate of their own in state Rep. Bryan Lentz. Still, in a strong Republican year, Democrats have to be nervous about losing Rep. Joe Sestak’s district.

Washington’s 3rd. Retiring Rep. Brian Baird’s (D) open seat performed slightly better for McCain than for Bush in 2004 (and better than Pennsylvania’s 7th did for the same Republicans). But the nomination won’t be decided until the fall, and Democrats have a slew of bigger names looking at the contest. Still, if the GOP gets the right candidate and a partisan wave builds, this district could move up the list as a takeover opportunity.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and CQPolitics.com on February 1, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen House Seats for 2010

By Stuart Rothenberg

Regular readers of this column know that I’ve been rating the most vulnerable House seats — open and incumbent — for years. It’s that time again, and since there aren’t yet enough competitive open seats to rate by themselves, this list includes the dozen most vulnerable seats in the House.

There are two caveats that go with the list. First, there are strong arguments for including at least half a dozen other districts on the list. So, not being on this list doesn’t mean a contest is not extremely competitive. Second, since the midterm elections are still almost a year off, this list is likely to change significantly before November.

Louisiana’s 2nd: Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao, the only Republican to vote for the House’s health care reform bill, had no business winning this majority-black district. He won only because of the timing of the 2008 elections and the unique problems of then-Rep. William Jefferson (D). This time, Democrats are likely to have an unindicted nominee, which should end Cao’s service in Congress at one term. Two state Representatives have already announced they are running. Expect a turnover.

Delaware’s At-Large: Rep. Mike Castle’s decision to run for Senate was great news for the National Republican Senatorial Committee but bad news for House Republicans. Former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) was already running when Castle made his announcement, so Democrats have a serious candidate in the race. Since the state leans Democratic, Republicans will need to find a formidable nominee even to contest the seat seriously.

Louisiana’s 3rd: With Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) running for Senate, this open seat gives the GOP an excellent takeover opportunity. The district gave President Barack Obama only 37 percent of the vote in 2008, so the Republican nominee should benefit from normal midterm dynamics. Of course, with a late August primary, the race won’t shake out for months.

Virginia’s 5th: Freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D) seems more interested in doing what he thinks is right than getting re-elected. That’s the only way to explain his votes supporting House Democrats’ cap-and-trade and health care reform bills. State Sen. Robert Hurt (R) is expected to challenge Perriello, and the Congressman is in deep, deep trouble. Obama’s 48 percent showing last year in this district understates Perriello’s challenge next year.

Maryland’s 1st: Unlike Perriello, Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) has voted as if he is trying to be re-elected. But he barely scraped by Republican Andy Harris in an open-seat contest last time, and the midterm electorate will make his re-election bid more difficult. He has a chance to win another term, but the odds aren’t in his favor. Obama drew only 40 percent of the vote in the 1st in 2008.

Kansas’ 3rd: When Rep. Dennis Moore announced his retirement last week, Democratic prospects tanked. While Obama won this district with 51 percent, it generally leans Republican, and the open seat during a midterm election looks like a juicy GOP target.

Ohio’s 1st: Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) knocked off then-Rep. Steve Chabot (R) last year, and now Chabot is trying to return the favor. Expected lower turnout among Democratic core groups, especially younger voters and blacks, places this district at great risk even though Obama won it with 55 percent.

Ohio’s 15th: Freshman Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) has many of the same problems — and the same challenges — that confront Driehaus in the state’s 1st district. Unlike Driehaus, Kilroy faces a rematch against an opponent who has never won district-wide. But former state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) should be a formidable foe.

Florida’s 8th: Rep. Alan Grayson (D), another freshman, has gone out of his way to be partisan and inflammatory. That’s a good way to raise money and attract the fawning admiration of liberal activists, but it isn’t the best way to get re-elected in this Republican-leaning district that went for Obama with 52 percent. The GOP doesn’t yet have a “name” challenger, and the party may never get one. But given Grayson’s recent behavior, they may not need one to take back this district after a single term.

New Mexico’s 2nd: Rep. Harry Teague faces former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who gave up his seat in 2008 to run for Senate. Teague has tried to vote his district, but he isn’t being helped by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and Obama, who drew 49 percent of the district’s vote in 2008. Definitely a midterm problem for Democrats.

New Hampshire’s 2nd: The Granite State has swung strongly Democratic of late — probably too strongly considering the state’s fundamentals. This open seat, and the likely candidacy of former Rep. Charles Bass (R), should give Republicans at least an even money chance of winning back the district during the midterm elections. But attorney Ann McLane Kuster, the early favorite for the Democratic nomination and the daughter of a former liberal Republican state legislator, should be a formidable standard-bearer for her party.

New York’s 23rd: Special election winner Rep. Bill Owens won his seat with less than 50 percent of the vote, and if Republicans find a nominee who can appeal to both conservatives and moderates, Owens will find himself in trouble. His first vote was for the House health care reform bill.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on November 30, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Sizing Up the 2010 Senate Contests in the Summer of 2009

By Stuart Rothenberg

Six months ago, the 2010 Senate battlefield looked relatively bare, with a few obvious skirmishes mostly in states with GOP incumbents. Three months later, the outlook had brightened dramatically for Democrats, largely the result of a number of GOP retirements and solid Democratic recruiting on those open seats.

But now, as the dog days of summer begin, the landscape has shifted again, this time improving significantly for Republicans.

Democrats no longer have the momentum they once possessed. Even more important, signs of some Democratic vulnerability have appeared, giving the National Republican Senatorial Committee opportunities to shoot at, rather than forcing it to play an entirely defensive game, as it has the past two cycles.

Fifteen months before the midterms, Democrats have major problems in two states — Illinois and Connecticut — while a third, Nevada, remains a potential headache. Republicans, on the other hand, have serious vulnerabilities in four states — Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio — and potential problems in two others. But of late, even those Republican vulnerabilities look less daunting than they once did.

The announcement by Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) that she will seek re-election rather than run for the Senate (or governor) immediately boosted Republican prospects in what remains a very difficult state for the GOP. But Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) should be a formidable candidate, while Democrats have a field that is less than intimidating.

And in Connecticut, veteran Sen. Chris Dodd (D) has aired multiple TV ads in an attempt to remind Constitution State voters what he has accomplished and what he stands for — an open acknowledgment that he has work to do to repair his image. Republicans now worry that Dodd, who just announced he will have surgery for prostate cancer, will retire rather than seek re-election, thereby damaging their prospects of winning the seat.

Democrats have two formidable candidates in Kentucky, while Republicans recently received a gift from Sen. Jim Bunning (R) when the endangered two-term incumbent announced that he would not seek a third term. That means Secretary of State Trey Grayson will likely be the GOP nominee, dramatically increasing the chances that Republicans can retain the seat.

Former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) is moving toward a Senate bid in the Granite State’s open-seat contest, and while she is not yet a proven campaigner, insiders who know her speak effusively about her abilities and appeal. Democrats once viewed their likely nominee, Rep. Paul Hodes, as a solid favorite to win the seat, but the race now looks like a tossup, at best, for Democrats.

Meanwhile President Barack Obama’s sliding popularity is at least a troubling sign for Democrats in both Missouri and Ohio, where Republican Senate candidates may benefit from the public’s growing concerns about federal spending, possible tax hikes and bigger government.

Republicans still lack a top-tier challenger to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), and Sen. John Ensign’s (R-Nev.) recent personal troubles certainly don’t boost Republican prospects next year. Still, as the president’s point man in the Senate, Reid simply makes himself a juicy target in the midterm elections.

Democrats have potential opportunities in North Carolina and Louisiana, but they still have work to do in both. The party has not yet recruited a serious threat to Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), and while Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) is widely rumored to be leaning toward a challenge to Sen. David Vitter (R), the state’s fundamentals and the midterm environment raise questions about the viability of the challenge.

Republicans have three longer-shot opportunities that shouldn’t yet be completely discounted — Arkansas, Colorado and Pennsylvania — though in each case the Democratic incumbent has a considerable advantage. Pennsylvania, in particular, is intriguing, since a truly nasty Democratic primary seems likely and the GOP nominee, former Rep. Pat Toomey, is not without appeal.

Eleven Republican and 12 Democratic Senate seats up next year now look safe. But if Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) decides to run for the Senate, as some GOP insiders now believe he will, another of those safe Democratic seats suddenly becomes a tossup.

Republicans would be wise not to celebrate just yet. Their diminished vulnerability is, in part, the result of Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s leaving the GOP, which cost them a seat that they probably were going to lose next year. And with Democrats controlling 60 of the Senate’s 100 seats going into next year’s elections, any additional Republican losses would add to the party’s existing woes.

The widely expected resignation of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) in the fall, which will lead to a special election in the first half of 2010, also creates some uncertainty. While Republicans will have a strong nominee and the NRSC will spend what it takes to hold the seat, the special election is at least a major distraction for the national GOP.

If politics is about momentum and message, then the outlook for ’10 has changed considerably over the past couple of months. Democrats still have a wealth of opportunities and some advantages, but Republicans now have momentum and an improving issue mix. For the first time this cycle, I can imagine a scenario where Democrats do not gain Senate seats in 2010.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on August 3, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Louisiana Senate: Vitter Breathes Easier?

By Nathan L. Gonzales

With a handful of potential primary and general election challengers taking a pass, Sen. David Vitter’s (R-La.) road to re-election in 2010 now looks a little clearer than it did last week.

Still, Vitter’s political rehabilitation after being tarnished by his ties to a prostitution scandal is far from certain, and the lack of public polling on the Republican incumbent leaves some question as to his true electoral strength.

Late last week, former Rep. John Cooksey (R-La.) was reportedly interested in taking on Vitter in the primary. But the former 5th district Congressman announced Monday that he is not running, in a statement that included some nuance.

“While I do not always agree with David Vitter’s position on social issues, I believe David Vitter does a good job representing the people of Louisiana on fiscal matters,” Cooksey said in a statement to the Concordia Sentinel. “If David Vitter emerges as the Republican nominee in the 2010 Senate race in Louisiana, I will vote for him.”

It was never clear that Cooksey’s candidacy was more than idle chatter. Lee Fletcher, the former Congressman’s chief of staff and campaign manager, confirmed Monday that he had had no contact with his former boss about a potential Senate race. Fletcher, now chief of staff for freshman Rep. John Fleming (R-La.), lost the 2002 open-seat race to replace Cooksey, who left to run for Senate.

Cooksey co-hosted a Washington, D.C., fundraiser for Vitter late last year, along with former Sen. J. Bennett Johnston (D), the entire Republican Congressional delegation at the time and a considerable list of former lawmakers, including ex-Reps. Bob Livingston (R-La.) and Billy Tauzin (R-La.).

The “Mardi Gras in December” event was one step in Vitter’s plan to dissuade potential challengers. Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) attended the event but has not yet endorsed Vitter’s re-election bid, a rare move for a sitting governor, considering the Senator is of the same party.

“He’s been doing everything he needs to do,” one GOP insider said of Vitter’s efforts.

While Vitter has been working hard to shore up his base, Cooksey was not the first potential primary challenger to be mentioned.

After Vitter’s name was linked to the D.C. Madam prostitution ring in July 2007 — and his subsequent admission that he committed a “serious sin” — questions about his electability have persisted. But the Senator’s biggest vulnerability is likely in the form of a conservative primary challenge instead of the general election next year. Louisiana has trended more and more Republican in recent years, and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won 59 percent of the vote there in the 2008 presidential race.

Family Research Council President Tony Perkins is considered a potential serious threat to Vitter because of his appeal to social conservatives. But Perkins, a former Republican state Representative from East Baton Rouge who heads up a Washington, D.C.-based conservative group, has said he is less inclined to run and could not be reached for comment Monday.

In the 2002 all-party Senate primary, Perkins finished fourth with 10 percent, while Cooksey was third with 14 percent.

Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) has said he is being encouraged to consider the race, but he doesn’t appear to be taking steps toward a run, either.

Thus far, it appears Vitter has effectively fended off primary challenges before they begin, in part because of his strong fundraising. He has done a good job of securing the support of major donors in the state, according to one GOP operative, in a race where a primary challenger would need at least $1 million to be competitive. Vitter showed more than $2 million in his campaign account at the end of last year.

Knocking off Vitter, who became the first popularly elected Republican Senator in Louisiana history in 2004, won’t be easy. No Senator in the state has been defeated for re-election, going back to World War II.

“He’s traveled all over the state on a regular basis holding town-hall meetings in each of Louisiana’s 64 parishes each Congress, and his votes reflect that he is in tune with representing the best interests of the state,” Vitter spokesman Joel DiGrado said.

But even with the strong fundraising, Vitter’s electoral strength has not been substantiated by public polling numbers — though that should change soon.

The liberal Democratic Web site DailyKos.com will be releasing new Louisiana Senate numbers later this week, including hypothetical primary matchups as well as general election numbers and favorable and unfavorable numbers.

Until now, polling has been scarce and private. One poll apparently shows Vitter with strong re-election numbers, while other private surveys have shown him with virtually even favorable and unfavorable ratings. More recent polling conducted in state legislative races in Louisiana confirms that Vitter has some work to do to improve his image.

Vitter is “vulnerable to a legitimate challenge,” according to one GOP insider, “but where is the legitimate challenger?”

The Republican Senator appeared to dodge another bullet when Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) told the Thibodaux Daily Comet on Sunday that he is unlikely to run.

Melancon, the only Democrat in Louisiana’s seven-member Congressional delegation and co-chairman of the Blue Dog Coalition, is viewed as Vitter’s greatest potential general election challenger because of his ability to appeal to conservative Democrats who often vote Republican in federal races.

Even without Melancon, Democrats are still not likely to give Vitter a pass. Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (brother of Sen. Mary Landrieu [D-La.]), Shaw Group Chief Executive Officer Jim Bernhard, former Gov. Kathleen Blanco and former Rep. Chris John are mentioned on the Democratic side, but none of them is seen as initially as strong as Melancon. John, who is now head of the Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association, finished second behind Vitter in the 2004 all-party primary, garnering only 29 percent to Vitter’s 51 percent.

“Between Sen. Vitter’s past and his extremist right-wing voting record, Sen. Vitter is vulnerable this cycle. While there was a lot of hype from the other side about what a competitive race Sen. Landrieu was going to have [in 2008], she won by a very comfortable margin,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Communications Director Eric Schultz said. “We believe Sen. Vitter doesn’t represent Louisiana’s mainstream values. He’s ethically challenged, and between now and Election Day, will have many questions to answer.”


This story first appeared in Roll Call on March 3, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Louisiana Senate: Jindal Not Endorsing Vitter For Now

By Nathan L. Gonzales

While Louisiana Sen. David Vitter (R) can point to Gov. Bobby Jindal’s (R) attendance at a recent fundraiser for his 2010 re-election race as evidence of the popular governor’s support, well-placed Republican insiders say that Jindal definitely is not yet in Vitter’s camp.

Instead, they say that Jindal is firmly in wait-and-see mode and has not endorsed the Senator.

“He’ll have to answer to the voters. He’s going to have a chance to do that in the next few years,” Jindal said recently, telling the Baton Rouge Advocate that it was too early to decide support. “I was asked to attend a fundraiser.”

Jindal’s neutrality is unusual, of course, because in virtually all cases, the sitting governor of a state supports the sitting Senator if they’re from the same party. But Vitter’s career has been anything but typical.

In July 2007, the Republican admitted to a “serious sin” after his phone number appeared on a client list of a high-end prostitution ring that was under investigation. According to GOP sources, private polling shows that the once-popular Vitter has close to even favorable and unfavorable ratings and is doing particularly poorly among women.

“Vitter has worked hard to sell the idea that he has fully recovered,” according to a GOP operative familiar with Louisiana. “That’s interesting, but not reflected in polling.”

At the moment, Vitter’s political prospects are uncertain. While some Republican insiders would like to find a strong primary challenger to the Senator, so far no one has come forward. And even Vitter’s critics within the GOP acknowledge that he has done a good job of securing the support of key donors in the state.

Vitter also appears to be trying to use votes to shore up conservatives. On Thursday he was the lone vote on the Foreign Relations Committee against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) nomination for secretary of State.

Part of the Republican concern about Vitter stems from doubts about his strength against a formidable Democratic opponent.

“Our chances of holding the seat are shaky. If [Vitter is] nominated, his chances depend on who he’s running against,” according to the concerned Republican operative, adding that Vitter is operating from a “very significant level of weakness.”

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is already looking to recruit a serious candidate into the race, and the longer Vitter’s numbers remain weak, the better the DSCC’s chances of succeeding.

Rep. Charlie Melancon, Louisiana’s only Democratic House member, could be the Republican’s worst nightmare, but it is unclear whether he has any interest in running. Former Rep. Chris John (D) could give Vitter problems as well, even though he ran an underwhelming race six years ago and some party insiders say that he isn’t likely to run.

It would certainly be helpful to Vitter to have Jindal on board, but it’s very unclear if or when the governor might get involved. Last cycle, he did late television ads for now-Reps. Bill Cassidy (R), John Fleming (R) and Anh “Joseph” Cao (R), as well as unsuccessful Senate nominee John Kennedy. But none of them had the ethical baggage that Vitter possesses.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on January 15, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Republicans Should Quit Celebrating and Face Reality

By Nathan L. Gonzales

It’s understandable that Republicans are looking for any glimmer of good news after getting drubbed in consecutive election cycles. But their celebration over recent victories in Georgia and Louisiana is over the top and leaves the party ignoring electoral reality.

“Our success in Georgia with U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss and in the two Louisiana Congressional races makes for three wins in a row for a GOP that was supposed to be destroyed, demoralized, and humiliated on Election Day,” Ron Kaufman, the Republican National Committee Budget Committee chairman, wrote in a memo this week to RNC members.

Republicans look like the football team dancing in the end zone in the fourth quarter of a game when they’re down by 40 points.

“It would seem that the media reports of our demise and of how long it would take for Republicans to catch up were greatly exaggerated,” Kaufman chided in the memo, which also included the potential creation of a Center for Republican Renewal, an RNC Speakers Bureau, and Partnership 2010, which would include a paid RNC staffer for every state.

Kaufman’s memo comes on the heels of House Minority Leader John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) memo, “The Future is Cao,” after attorney Ahn Cao (R) defeated indicted Rep. William Jefferson (D) in Louisiana’s 2nd district.

“As House Republicans look ahead to the next two years, the Cao victory is a symbol of what can be achieved when we think big, present a positive alternative, and work aggressively to earn the trust of the American people,” Boehner wrote.

Republicans clearly have their theme, and they’re sticking to it, even if the latest three victories don’t pave any path back to electoral significance.

While it’s nice to claim victory in the first three contests of the Obama era, Republicans should not forget that they held a GOP seat in Georgia, held a GOP seat in Louisiana’s 4th district and defeated an indicted Democrat who hid $90,000 cash in his freezer in Louisiana’s 2nd district.

The Georgia race should not have even made it to a runoff, so to boast about a Chambliss victory is a bit disingenuous. The GOP Senator outspent his Democratic challenger by more than 4 to 1 through Oct. 15, in a state that President George W. Bush carried by 17 points in 2004 and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried by 5 points on Nov. 4.

It’s like congratulating the New York Giants on defeating the Detroit Lions on a last-second field goal in overtime.

Democrats have enjoyed recent success in districts similar to Louisiana’s 4th, and Republicans had a very competitive primary there, but GOP leaders should not get too excited about holding a district Bush carried with 59 percent four years ago.

Looking to the future, Republicans cannot regain the majorities in the House and the Senate just by holding their own seats and defeating incumbents with frozen cash on hand.

Instead, Republicans should face the reality of the current electoral landscape. Over the last two cycles, they have lost more than 50 seats in the House and at least 13 seats in the Senate. Republicans have dug a tremendous hole for themselves, and it will take more than talking points to dig out.

Republicans need to come to terms with the fact that over the last four years, Democrats have gained control of every level of government.

In the House, Republicans had a 232-202 majority after the 2004 election. Next year, Democrats will have a 257-178 edge. In the Senate, Republicans had a 55-45 majority after the 2004 election. Next year, Democrats will have 58 or 59 Senate seats.

After the 2004 election, Republicans held 28 governorships compared with 22 for the Democrats. After Nov. 4, Democrats held 29 governorships compared with 21 for the Republicans, although the GOP will gain one back if Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) leaves, as expected, to join Obama’s Cabinet.

After the 2004 election, Republicans controlled the state legislature in 20 states compared with 19 Democratic-controlled states. Now, Democrats control the state legislature in 27 states, with the Republicans holding only 14.

And there are over 800 more Democratic state legislators than Republicans in the country, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures Web site. Four years ago, Democrats had a mere 10-seat edge out of more than 7,000 nationwide.

Given this new GOP optimism, if Democrats keep their cash in banks rather than in appliances, they could be in the majority for a very long time.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on December 10, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Louisiana 2: Former Landrieu Chief of Staff Aided Jefferson Challenger

By Nathan L. Gonzales

There are plenty of Democrats who aren’t particularly sad that indicted Louisiana Rep. William Jefferson (D) will not be returning to Congress after his upset defeat on Saturday. Those Democrats may be surprised that Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu’s (D) former chief of staff, Ron Faucheux, helped Republican Joseph Cao defeat the embattled Congressman.

Faucheux is president of Clarus Research Group, a Washington, D.C.-based polling firm, which conducted surveys for Cao in the 2nd district race. According to an e-mail sent by Faucheux on Sunday afternoon, Clarus helped the GOP attorney score “one of the biggest Congressional upsets of the year.”

Cao defeated Jefferson, 50 percent to 47 percent, in a low-turnout general election that was postponed because of Hurricane Gustav.

Faucheux was elected to the Louisiana House at age 25 and served there with Landrieu. He later moved to Washington, was editor of Campaigns & Elections magazine for a decade and served as chief of staff to Landrieu for a year, beginning in 2006.

“I’ve worked for many years trying to bring reform and good leadership to my home state of Louisiana,” Faucheux said. “I’ve helped candidates I believe will do that, without regard to partisanship.”

In August 2005, the FBI raided Jefferson’s home and allegedly found $90,000 in cash in his freezer. The Congressman won re-election — 57 percent to 43 percent — in 2006 against Democrat Karen Carter in a runoff. In June 2007, Jefferson was indicted on 16 charges of corruption. He is awaiting trial.

Faucheux formed Clarus in June 2008, combining his consulting business, Faucheux Strategies, with the research division of Qorvis Communications. He was an adviser to Landrieu’s successful re-election bid last month, but Faucheux never talked with the Senator about his work on the Cao race.

“Clarus is a nonpartisan research firm focused on corporate, association and nonprofit clients, not political campaigns,” Faucheux explained. “Candidate work is an exception.”

The Faucheux-Cao connection is just one example of the small world that is Louisiana politics.

Faucheux ran unsuccessfully for mayor of New Orleans in 1982, losing 53 percent to 47 percent to incumbent Ernest Morial, the city’s first African-American mayor. Faucheux finished second in the initial all-party primary with 45 percent, less than two points behind Morial. Jefferson , then a state Senator, finished third with a distant 7 percent of the vote.


This story first appeared on RollCall.com on December 8, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Georgia Senate & Louisiana 4

The November 24, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of this edition:


Georgia Senate: Still On My Mind
By Nathan L. Gonzales

It’s not over yet. The 2008 election continues with a runoff election in Georgia. And Democrats must defeat Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) to have any chance of reaching the symbolic 60 seats in the Senate. But thanks to the ongoing recount in the Minnesota Senate race, the December 2 vote in the Peach State may not be the final word. Get the whole story in the print edition.


Louisiana 4: Fight to the Finish
By Nathan L. Gonzales

It’s a good thing that Louisiana voters are used to going to the polls in December. Even though the state junked the jungle primary for more traditional primaries, Hurricane Gustav pushed the races back a month. Now, voters will go to the polls in Northwest Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District on December 6.

It’s yet another GOP open seat where Republicans are in serious jeopardy. And both parties are trying to maintain focus after an election where Democrats gained at least another 21 seats in the House. Get the whole story in the print edition.

Even in a Wave, Some Get Just What They Deserve

By Stuart Rothenberg

It isn’t easy being a candidate for Congress. It takes an unnatural amount of time and effort to put together a winning campaign, and even then, circumstances can conspire against a candidate who does everything right.

But being a confident candidate, even one with a credible campaign, doesn’t justify absurd claims and press releases. Some campaigns simply are in denial when it comes to what is important or what is possible, and it is those campaigns that drive me crazy.

Wealthy Democrat Jim Harlan was convinced he could beat Republican Rep. Steve Scalise in Louisiana’s 1st district, even though the district is the state’s most educated, most affluent and most Republican. George W. Bush drew a stunning 71 percent in the district in 2004, an even stronger showing than he had in Wyoming.

Harlan put more than $1.2 million from his own pocket into the race, and his campaign directed some of the most ridiculous attacks of the cycle against his opponent. For example, the Harlan campaign criticized Scalise for misleading voters by claiming he had a 100 percent voting record, even though he did have a perfect attendance record. “Scalise actually missed 1,453 votes in the 110th Congress before taking the seat in May,” charged a bizarre Harlan press release.

In the end, while Harlan’s campaign bragged about being added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program and touted a late September Kitchens Group poll showing Scalise with an 11-point lead, the Democratic challenger drew an embarrassing 34 percent of the vote, losing by 32 points. He never had a chance, but his campaign acted as if a win was likely.

Then there was Steve Greenberg, a Chicago- area Republican who promised that he would beat moderate Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean in Illinois’ 8th district. Greenberg got plenty of ink for being a one-time professional hockey player, and his family’s wealth was supposed to assure that he’d batter Bean with enough TV spots to win in the Republican-leaning suburban district. He was one of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s early hot recruits.

But if Greenberg ran a quality campaign, it must have been in a parallel universe where everything is opposite from this one. While Bean raised $3 million for her re-election effort, Greenberg didn’t even reach $1 million, and he put only $156,000 of his own money into a race that quickly turned from potentially competitive to a yawner.

Unlike Greenberg, New Jersey Democrat Dennis Shulman didn’t give up. Shulman, a blind rabbi and psychologist, acted as if articles about him and his candidacy in Time magazine and the New Yorker, as well as an endorsement from the mayor of New York City, made him a celebrity and a serious threat to incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Garrett. They didn’t. Most people in his district don’t read those magazines or care what Michael Bloomberg thinks.

Garrett’s district strongly leans Republican, and Bush won it with 57 percent in 2004, running more than 11 points ahead of his statewide total. Credible Republican statewide candidates always carry the district even if they are getting pounded statewide.

Despite all the self-generated hype and over-the-top campaign rhetoric, Shulman drew 42 percent against Garrett — almost 2 points worse than Paul Aronsohn (D) did two years earlier and only 1,300 votes more than 2004 Democratic nominee Anne Wolfe did.

Then there is Republican John Stone, a conservative activist and former Congressional staffer, who got slightly more than one-third of the vote in Georgia’s 12th district and blamed his loss to incumbent Rep. John Barrow (D) on the NRCC.

Stone’s own fundraising stunk, and he had no chance in the current environment to win in a 45 percent African-American district that was carried by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) four years ago. But that didn’t stop him from trying to avoid responsibility for his own failure.

The case of Indiana hopeful Mike Montagano (D) is in a class all by itself. Like a few other allegedly serious hopefuls I’ve met over the years, he was short on credentials and maturity. Even worse, he either couldn’t or wouldn’t take positions on issues.

Montagano, who received considerable financial help from his father, clearly was in over his head in this race, and his ability to win 40 percent of the vote says something about incumbent Rep. Mark Souder’s limited appeal and district voters’ willingness to vote for any Democrat on the ballot.

Finally, we have the case of Nick Leibham (D), a young, appealing challenger to incumbent Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.) in a district that seems to have a ceiling for Democrats in competitive federal races that is below 50 percent, no matter the circumstances.

Leibham assured us that he was the guy to knock off Bilbray, even though Kerry drew 44 percent in the district and Francine Busby drew 45 percent and 43 percent in the ’06 special and ’06 general election, respectively.

The special election should have been a particularly good opportunity for Democrats in the district, since the seat was left open following Republican Rep. Duke Cunningham’s resignation, plea bargain and incarceration. But after a spirited campaign against a Republican who had been a lobbyist and in an environment when Republicans around the country were in terror, Bilbray beat Busby by 7,200 votes (4.6 points).

This year, Leibham drew 45 percent against Bilbray, just what Busby did in that special.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on November 17, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Republicans Turn to ‘No Blank Check’ in Final Days

By Nathan L. Gonzales

With Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) White House prospects dimming and just days to go before the elections, Republicans are turning to a “no blank check” strategy in an effort to minimize their losses in the House and Senate.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has been hammering the "no blank check" theme in TV ads in North Carolina, where Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) is in a tough fight with state Sen. Kay Hagan (D).

“Who’s the Senate race really about? Hagan or Dole? Neither one,” the announcer says in one spot. “It’s about liberals in Washington. They want complete control of the government. They spent $10 million dollars on a hoax,” with a picture of Hagan on the screen.

“The left wants 60 votes in the Senate. To push radical cuts to our military. Massive tax increases. Liberal judges. And expand welfare,” the ad continues. “Kay Hagan, if she wins, liberals get a blank check.”



This week, the NRSC continued the same themes in Louisiana, with an ad attempting to label Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) as corrupt, liberal and someone who has voted with presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) more than 80 percent of the time.

“Don’t give Washington liberals complete control. Don’t give them a blank check,” says to the NRSC spot, which hinges on the notion that Louisiana is one state where Obama won’t do well on Election Day.



The “no blank check” strategy is also creeping into House races. Republican businessman Chris Hackett sounded the theme in an ad that began airing Monday. Hackett is running against freshman Rep. Christopher Carney (D) in Pennsylvania’s 10th district.

“What if Washington becomes controlled at all levels by big-government Democrats? It could happen this election. One party dominance can be very dangerous,” the ad begins.

Hackett’s ad then features Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), the Keystone State’s popular senior Senator, talking straight to the camera.

“I am very concerned about one-party rule in Washington,” Specter says in the spot. “That’s why it’s so important to elect Chris Hackett to Congress. With Chris Hackett, we’ll have a check against massive Democratic control. And that’s vital for our country.”



In the Minnesota Senate race, Democrats are making the opposite case.

“We don’t have a lot of time to turn our economy around. And it’s going to take a new president and 60 Senators willing to stand up for change. Now, any single Republican can block the progress we need,” Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) said in a TV ad done for the Democratic nominee. “Al Franken could very well be that 60th vote. I hope you’ll vote for Al Franken. Let’s end the gridlock and get our country moving.”



This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 29, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Louisiana Senate: Worth Watching or Over and Done?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Like just about everyone else, I’m more than a little confused about the Louisiana Senate race.

According to OnMessage Inc., which conducts polling for Republican challenger John Kennedy in the Louisiana race, the two-term Democrat-turned-Republican state treasurer trails incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) by the mid-single digits, and the race has been closing. The pollster’s most recent three-day roll is just 5 points — 47 percent to 42 percent.

That assessment of the race is light years from where Landrieu’s campaign, national Democratic insiders and even plenty of veteran Louisiana campaign watchers see the contest, and a Mellman Group poll (also based on tracking) for the Democrat shows Landrieu holding a huge advantage — 52 percent to 34 percent — over Kennedy.

The difference between a 5-point race and an almost 20-point contest isn’t merely one of degree. While both polls show Landrieu ahead and more likely to win, the GOP survey shows a competitive contest, while the Democratic poll shows a race that already is over.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee decided to pull out of Louisiana until it saw recent OnMessage tracking and decided that Kennedy still had a chance to overtake the Democrat. The NRSC bought another week of TV in the state on the basis of the OnMessage track.

Last week, both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the NRSC had TV buys up in the state. Apparently Democratic strategists weren’t entirely confident that the race was over, even with a 15- to 20-point lead.

What else do we know about the polls and the race?

While Democratic insiders argue that the Louisiana race has moved little in weeks, OnMessage tracking found Landrieu holding solid double-digit leads from Sept. 23 to Oct. 2, after which the race closed noticeably. Indeed, on Sept. 23, the GOP poll found Landrieu ahead by 20 points, 53 percent to 33 percent, over Kennedy.

On Sept. 27, Rasmussen Reports, an automated poll about which I have often expressed great reservations, showed Landrieu ahead of Kennedy by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent. On Sept. 28, OnMessage’s three-day roll found virtually the same margin, with Landrieu holding a 14-point lead, 52 percent to 38 percent.

What else do we know?

We also know that the Democratic and Republican pollsters disagree about what percentage of the total electorate will be black. Blacks constitute a few more percentage points of the total sample in the Mellman Group poll than in the OnMessage surveys. This alone would explain some of the difference in the ballot test, since race is a strong predictor of the vote in Louisiana.

We know that the Mellman survey shows Landrieu with a much higher favorable/unfavorable net rating than the OnMessage survey, and that Kennedy’s favorable/unfavorable rating is good in the GOP poll and terrible in the Democratic survey.

What we have, then, is a consistent set of differences in the two surveys. Democratic tracking has McCain’s lead more narrow, Landrieu’s lead much bigger, Landrieu’s identification ratio much more positive and Kennedy’s ID ratio much more negative than does the Republican track.

If experience counts — and this year, at least in the presidential campaigns, it hasn’t — then we have to consider the pollsters.

Landrieu is notoriously fickle when it comes to consultants, so it should come as no surprise that she has switched pollsters. After using Al Quinlan last cycle, she has switched to Mark Mellman, a highly regarded political veteran whom I met many years ago when he was still a graduate student at Yale. In 1996, Mellman worked in Louisiana for an outside group that ran an anti-David Duke campaign when Duke was one of the Republican candidates running against Landrieu in an open-seat Senate contest.

Kennedy’s media and polling are being done by OnMessage, a relatively new combination of Brad Todd, Curt Anderson and Wes Anderson, whom I have also known for many years and hold in high regard. What’s most notable about the team is that it handled polling for both of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal’s (R) races, including his win last November.

The 2007 gubernatorial election was the first statewide contest in Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina, and there is no doubt that the storm caused some residents to leave the state, changing Louisiana’s demographics and altering its electoral arithmetic. OnMessage’s involvement in that race and the firm’s accurate polling for Jindal cannot be ignored.

I’m not certain where the Senate race really is now, but I’m pretty certain that Landrieu is not going to win by 20 or 18 or even 15 points. I’d be surprised if she won by 10 points.

There is no doubt that she is currently ahead (both sides agree about that), and even some Democrats believe that the Senator will not get a lot of the undecided vote. My guess is that Landrieu will win with a final margin that is much closer to the margin now found in OnMessage tracking than in the Democratic polling.

As I write this, the NRSC is advertising in the state, while the DSCC has not extended its TV buy. Of course, it could decide to do so at any time.

Jindal, a wildly popular political figure in the state, so far hasn’t put his full weight behind Kennedy’s effort, and he has been politically averse in partisan races so far. But if the governor comes out strongly for Kennedy soon, he could affect the race’s dynamic.

Some observers no longer think this race is even worth watching. I’m not so sure. On election night, this contest may be closer than a number of races that those same people are watching breathlessly right now. And unlike many others, I have not ruled out a surprise.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on October 21, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Louisiana Senate: NRSC Back In

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has reversed an earlier decision to cancel its last two weeks of advertising in Louisiana. Instead, it has purchased TV time next week and will wait to decide whether to buy the final week before Election Day. The decision comes on the heels of GOP polling showing that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) has only a mid-single digit lead over challenger John Kennedy (R). Democrats dispute those numbers, arguing that Landrieu holds a substantial lead.

GOP May Target Mahoney Media Firm in Other Districts

By Nathan L. Gonzales

With Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) embroiled in an alleged sex scandal, Republicans are putting on the full-court press to broaden the scandal to other districts by implicating House Democratic leadership — and, potentially, Mahoney’s former media firm.

According to the initial ABC News report, Mahoney allegedly promised his mistress a $50,000-a-year job with his media consultant’s firm, Fletcher Rowley Chao Riddle Inc., as part of a package to keep her from going public about their affair.

”This firm is attempting to disassociate itself from its seemingly unethical and potentially illegal behavior because they realize that many of their clients are sitting in targeted districts,” according to one GOP operative, “This is a liability that will undoubtedly be explored."

The Nashville-based FRCR received plenty of good press earlier this year by helping Democrat Travis Childers win the special election in Mississippi’s 1st district. Childers is at limited risk of losing his seat next month, but some of the firm’s other candidates are in much more competitive races.

FRCR works with Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) who knocked off then-Rep. Richard Pombo (R) in 2006 and faces Dean Andal (R) this cycle, as well as teacher Larry Kissell (D), who is in a rematch with Rep. Robin Hayes (R) in North Carolina’s 8th district. Long-shot challenger Jim Harlan (D) in Louisiana’s 1st is also a client.

Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio) is another FRCR candidate, but Republicans failed to recruit a good candidate to take him on.

Once the Mahoney story broke, his media firm sought to sever all ties with the Congressman.

“FRCR Inc. has resigned from Tim Mahoney’s campaign and permanently ended our relationship with him,” CEO Bill Fletcher said. “According to ABC News, Tim Mahoney apparently included our company in a secret legal settlement without the knowledge of our firm. Our firm did not agree to any legal settlement. If these allegations are true, Tim Mahoney’s actions are unacceptable and not in line with FRCR’s business ethics.”

It may be too little too late to stop Republicans from pressing the issue.

UPDATE: In 2007, McNerney switched to McMahon, Squier, Lapp for media. On Thursday, the NRCC sought to make FRCR an issue against candidates in more districts including Don Cravins Jr. (LA7), Lincoln Davis (TN4), Tom Perriello (VA5), Paul Carmouche (LA4), and Joshua Segall (AL3).

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on October 15, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Wild Cards Create Wild Scenarios in Congressional Races

By Stuart Rothenberg

While third-party and Independent candidates for president remain largely irrelevant to the battle between Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), three nontraditional candidates in other races are proving to be more important.

In Minnesota, former Sen. Dean Barkley, running as the Independence Party’s nominee, is receiving almost one in five votes in the state’s Senate race, according to at least one unreleased survey.

In Louisiana’s 6th district, African- American state Rep. Michael Jackson (D), who is running for Congress as an Independent, could affect the outcome. And in Florida’s 13th district, Independent Jan Schneider remains a problem for Democrat Christine Jennings in her effort to defeat Rep. Vern Buchanan (R).

Barkley, who served very briefly in the Senate when he was appointed by then-Gov. Jesse Ventura (I), is benefiting from the increasing bitterness in the race between the two major party nominees, incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and comedian/satirist-turned-political-hopeful Al Franken (D).

Franken and his allies have painted Coleman as a junket-taking ally of President Bush who is close to “Big Oil.” Coleman and his allies have argued that Franken is a crude loudmouth who has failed to pay his taxes and doesn’t have the temperament to be in the Senate.

Through Aug. 20 (in their pre-primary reports), Coleman had raised more than $12 million and spent $8.5 million, while Franken had raised $13 million and spent $10.7 million. Barkley, in contrast, had raised $14,374 and spent $9,302.

None of those figures, of course, include independent expenditures from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and other outside groups that are spending money on behalf of one of the major-party candidates.

Barkley is benefiting from the same phenomenon that helped Alice Kryzan win the Democratic primary in New York’s 26th district last month and Carol Moseley Braun win the Democratic Senate nomination in Illinois in 1992: voter revulsion from two candidates engaging in heavily negative campaigns.

While Barkley isn’t running the kind of full-scale campaign that would ordinarily get him much traction, he’s receiving plenty of “none of the above” votes from Minnesotans who are tired of the personal attacks coming from Coleman and Franken.

While this normally would benefit Coleman, since most elections are referendums on the incumbent and having two or more alternatives to the incumbent thereby divides the anti-incumbent vote, Barkley is doing so well that he must be taking votes away from both men.

I have long had doubts as to whether Franken could win the votes of a majority of Minnesota voters because of his controversial history. But Barkley’s strong showing means that the Democrat may be able to win the Senate race with as little as 40 percent of the vote, a number that does not seem unattainable for Franken.

Some Democratic operatives have been considering whether it might be necessary for Franken, or more likely the DSCC, to attack Barkley to try to pull liberal (or at least anti-Coleman) voters away from the Independence Party nominee.

But that’s a risky strategy that could, in theory, benefit Coleman, and it would seem less likely if Coleman and Franken are locked in a very tight race in the final weeks of the election campaign.

Barkley isn’t likely to win the Minnesota Senate race in November, no matter how nasty the race gets, but the two major-party candidates will need to try to figure out whether, and how, to deal with him as Election Day approaches.

In the Louisiana race, a recent poll shows Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux holding a comfortable lead over state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) and Independent Jackson, who was drawing just 9 percent of the vote.

But many observers doubt that Cazayoux will retain such a big lead in a Republican-leaning district, and they expect that his campaign, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, may have to take steps to keep African-American voters, who outnumber white Democrats in the district, to stick with Cazayoux rather than vote for Jackson.

Like Barkley, Jackson hasn’t raised or spent much money. As of Aug. 17, Jackson had just $12,603 in the bank after raising $132,950. But every vote Jackson wins is a vote he has taken from Cazayoux, and Democratic insiders have already considered whether they need presidential nominee Obama to make an explicit appeal to the district’s black voters to stick with Democratic nominee Cazayoux rather than backing Jackson (Obama has already endorsed Cazayoux).

In Florida, Schneider is also short of cash. But she has run three times, in 2002 and 2004 as the Democratic nominee for Congress, and she drew a respectable 38 percent of the vote in an unsuccessful 2006 Democratic primary race against Jennings.

Just as important, Schneider recently told a local newspaper that she would put $100,000 of her own money behind her bid in the next few weeks.

By the time Election Day rolls around, it’s possible that these third-party candidates will have faded into oblivion. But it’s more likely that they will continue to give at least one major-party candidate in each race heartburn, and they could well affect major-party strategies going down to the wire.


This column first appeared in Roll Call on October 2, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Louisiana 6: Cazayoux’s Colleague Contributes to Independent Foe

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Louisiana Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) can’t rest easy after his special election victory in the 6th district just a few months ago. His victory expanded the Democratic Party’s House majority, but one of his new colleagues, Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.), contributed to an Independent candidate who is complicating Cazayoux’s re-election effort in November.

Cazayoux won the May 3 special election narrowly, 49 percent to 46 percent, but this November, he faces a Republican candidate with broader appeal, state Sen. Bill Cassidy, as well as his friend and former colleague in the state legislature, state Rep. Michael Jackson (D), who is black.

Jackson and Cazayoux faced off on April 5 in the special election primary, with Cazayoux prevailing 57 percent to 43 percent. Jackson felt snubbed by the Democratic Party establishment, who backed Cazayoux, and subsequently filed as in Independent in the general election.

Cazayoux doesn’t have a lot of room for error in a district that President Bush carried with 59 percent in 2004. And he can’t afford to lose too many Democratic votes to Jackson in a district where one-third of the voting-age population is African-American.

After Jackson announced his Independent candidacy, Butterfield donated $500 to his campaign on July 26, after meeting the Louisiana legislator at a Congressional Black Caucus event. The contribution appeared on pre-primary Federal Election Commission reports filed nearly a month ago but went unnoticed until Swing State Project, a Democratic blog, pointed it out Wednesday morning.

“It was a mistake,” said Butterfield’s communications director, Ken Willis. “[Jackson] was just introduced at the CBC event as a Congressional candidate.” Apparently, Butterfield did not realize that his contribution was for the general election and that Jackson was running as an Independent against a Democratic incumbent.

“If [Butterfield] had known it would be for the general election, he wouldn’t have done it,” Willis added. “He didn’t want to do anything to hurt the party.”

Even though Butterfield is displaying a certain political naivete, at a minimum, his contribution was to a primary challenger for Cazayoux.

Butterfield’s contribution to Jackson has him on an island. House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) contributed $2,000 to Cazayoux on Aug. 15, for a total of $6,000 for the cycle. Reps. David Price (D-N.C), Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.), Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.), and John Dingell (D-Mich.) contributed to Cazayoux in the last reporting period, which ended Aug. 17.

Jackson is not expected to raise a lot of money, but he demonstrated an electoral base in the special election primary. He only had $13,000 in the bank on Aug. 17. In comparison, Cazayoux showed $212,000 on hand to Republican Cassidy’s $306,000.

A Sept. 17-21 Anzalone-Liszt Research poll for Cazayoux’s campaign showed the new Congressman leading with 48 percent, compared with 32 percent for Cassidy and Jackson at 9 percent. But Cassidy is just starting his television ads, and the Congressman is in for a tough fight.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on September 24, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Some Bellwether States Losing Their Status

By Nathan L. Gonzales

The presidential campaign of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has vowed to compete in all 50 states this fall. While he should perform better than Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in some traditionally Republican states, he’s not going to achieve a Reagan-esque 1984 sweep.

If he defeats Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Obama’s path to victory will be different from the most recent Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, who came from the South. And an Obama victory will likely jeopardize the bellwether status of some Southern states. Even so, some of the 11 traditional bellwethers remain.

Missouri. Arguably, the champion of all bellwethers, the Show Me State has chosen the presidential winner in each election since 1904, with the exception of 1956. This year, Missouri remains a battleground, and the two vice presidential nominees will face off in St. Louis for the official debate. An Aug. 13-17 Public Policy Polling survey showed McCain ahead 50 percent to 40 percent.

Ohio. One of the most hotly contested states in recent years, Ohio remains a significant battleground. The Buckeye State voted for Richard Nixon in 1960 and has gotten it right ever since. The McCain campaign would like to challenge in Michigan, but it can’t afford to lose Ohio. An Aug. 31-Sept. 2 CNN/Time poll had Obama leading 47 percent to 45 percent, and an Aug. 17-24 Quinnipiac University poll gave the Democrat a similarly narrow edge of 44 percent to 43 percent.

Florida. After the 2000 fiasco, Florida will always get a significant amount of attention. The state has only two knocks against it since 1960, voting for George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Nixon in 1960. An Aug. 25-26 Mason-Dixon poll showed Obama with a 45 percent to 44 percent lead, while Republican firm Strategic Vision (Aug. 22-24) and Quinnipiac University (Aug. 17-24) give McCain 7- and 4-point leads, respectively.

Nevada. Nevada has picked the presidential winner every time since 1960, except for 1976. According to an Aug. 24-26 CNN/Time poll, Obama led 49 percent to 44 percent in a state that is experiencing a tremendous amount of population growth.

New Mexico. Since 1960, voters in the Land of Enchantment have voted for the presidential winner, except 1976 and 2000. President Bush prevailed in 2004 in one of the closest races in the country. New Mexico should be a battleground once again, although an Aug. 24-26 CNN/Time poll showed Obama with a significant 13-point lead.

North Carolina. Tar Heel State voters went for George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996, but have a great presidential track record beyond that. Recent polls have shown McCain with a slight advantage — he had a 45 percent to 42 percent edge in an Aug. 20-23 Public Policy Polling survey — but he can’t take this one for granted. If Obama is on the verge of winning North Carolina, he’s probably already won Virginia and well on his way to the Oval Office.

Arkansas. Since 1960, the Natural State has voted for every presidential winner, except for 1968, when it was one of five states to go for third-party candidate George Wallace. Today, Arkansas is one of the last to receive attention from the Obama campaign, after losing the state 70 percent to 26 percent in the primary to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), the former first lady of Arkansas.

Kentucky. In 1960, the Bluegrass State went for Nixon, who lost to John F. Kennedy, but the state has supported the presidential winner ever since. Kentucky is another Southern state where Obama performed poorly in the primary (30 percent).

Tennessee. Obama did slightly better in the Volunteer State primary (41 percent). But the Democratic nominee is not expected to carry the state in the general election, even though Tennessee has picked the last 11 presidential winners.

Louisiana. This state has only gotten it wrong twice (1964 and 1968) at the presidential level since 1960. McCain is favored to carry the state this fall.

Delaware. The First State has a great track record for choosing the presidential winner since 1960. But Delaware is trending Democratic, voting for the unsuccessful Democratic nominee in the last two presidential elections, and the presence of native son Sen. Joseph Biden (D) on the ticket makes the state neither a battleground nor a bellwether this year.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on September 4, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Louisiana 4: Thompson Counters With Own Poll

By Nathan L. Gonzales

The polling soap opera continues in Louisiana's 4th district.

With critics fervently seeking to discredit John Fleming's poll in the Republican primary, one of his opponents finally released numbers of his own on Monday.

An Aug. 10-11 OnMessage Inc. survey for former Bossier Chamber of Commerce President Jeff Thompson showed Fleming leading the GOP primary with 27 percent. Thompson was second with 23 percent and trucking executive Chris Gorman was third with 17 percent.

All of the candidates were well-liked among likely Republican primary voters. According to the survey, Fleming had a 50 percent favorable/10 percent unfavorable rating, while Thompson was at 43 percent favorable/4 percent unfavorable. Gorman was 44 percent favorable to 7 percent unfavorable.

Fleming's poll, taken at the end of July, had him ahead with 43 percent to Gorman's 17 percent and Thompson's 15 percent. No "push questions" were asked prior to the ballot, but biographical information was given that could have distorted the results. A Democratic poll in mid-July also showed Fleming ahead.

All of the candidates are advertising, which could account for some of the movement in the numbers since Fleming's survey. But amid all the bickering, there is a clear trend - Fleming is leading the primary race.

And it appears that his critics should spend less time worrying about Fleming's poll and more time on winning a race that's just three weeks away.

The primary winner will face Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche (D) in the fall battle to replace retiring Rep. Jim McCrery (R-La.).

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on August 18, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Louisiana 4: Poll Draws Criticism from Opponents

By Nathan L. Gonzales

A seemingly innocuous poll has created quite a stir in a very competitive Republican primary in Louisiana’s 4th district.

Earlier this month, physician John Fleming released a poll, conducted July 25-27 by Southern Media & Opinion Research, showing him leading the GOP race with 43 percent. Trucking company executive Chris Gorman was second with 17 percent and former Bossier Chamber of Commerce President Jeff Thompson was third with 15 percent.

But after the release, there has been a significant effort by Fleming’s opponents, especially the Gorman campaign, to discredit the poll. They are questioning the methodology and claiming there were “push questions” before the ballot question.

An examination of the first part of the survey (through the trial heat), released by Fleming’s campaign, shows that it did not include a clean ballot test, as independent observers have come to expect. But, on the other hand, it’s inaccurate to call the early questions “push questions.”

The poll started with standard questions including voter identification, a right direction/wrong track question about the state, favorable/unfavorable questions about President Bush, Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) and retiring Rep. Jim McCrery (R). It then asked respondents to identify the most important issues their Congressman needs to address and the most important issues to them personally.

Respondents were then asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the three Republican Congressional candidates. But instead of being asked only about the candidates’ names, those taking the poll were given brief biographical information about the three Republican hopefuls, including the candidates’ ages, occupations, marital status and number of children. Military service was also noted, but since Fleming is the only one to serve, his bio was the only one to include it.

The initial ballot followed, but referred to “Dr. John Fleming” while the other candidates did not have a salutation.

It’s unclear whether the biographical information made a difference. But in a race where all three candidates started virtually unknown, the bio information could have had an impact.

It’s also not unreasonable that Fleming leads the race. A July 16-21 Kitchens Group poll for likely Democratic nominee Paul Carmouche, over-sampled the Republican primary and showed Fleming ahead with 27 percent to Gorman’s 20 percent and Thompson’s 14 percent.

The Gorman campaign has declined to release any recent polling of its own to dispute the results.

After the initial ballot in Fleming’s poll, the campaign tested messages and issues — a standard procedure often referred to by political insiders as “push questions” — and followed with a second ballot test that was not released.

Because message testing does not constitute a “push poll,” and because the push questions came after the initial ballot, those questions did not influence the initial ballot. The way the first ballot was introduced to those being polled, however, could have produced distorted results.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on August 18, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.