WA Senate Moved to Narrow Advantage for Murray

Former state Sen. Dino Rossi's (R) entry into the race against Sen. Patty Murray (D) brings Washington's Senate seat into play. Murray appears to have a narrow lead in the polls and Rossi brings some high unfavorable ratings to the table after two losses in very competitive gubernatorial races. But this is now a real race. For now, we're rating the race as Narrow Advantage for Murray and the Democrats.

While events between now and November will affect the outlook for November, the GOP seems most likely to net 5-7 Senate seats, with a 8-seat gain certainly possible (but still short of the 10-seat gain the GOP would need for control). That means Democrats are likely to retain control of the Senate, but at a dramatically reduced level.

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

• Lincoln (D-AR)
  
• Reid (D-NV)
  
• ND Open (Dorgan, D)
• DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (3 R, 4 D)

• KY Open (Bunning, R)
  
• MO Open (Bond, R)
• OH Open (Voinovich, R)
• IL Open (Burris, D)
• IN Open (Bayh, D)
• PA Open (Specter, D)
  
• Bennet (D-CO)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 1 D)

• Burr (R-NC)
• FL Open (LeMieux, R)
• NH Open (Gregg, R)
• Murray (D-WA) *
  

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R,2 D)

• Vitter (R-LA)
  
• Boxer (D-CA)
  
• CT Open (Dodd, D)
  

Currently Safe (11 R, 7 D)

• Coburn (R-OK)
• Crapo (R-ID)
• DeMint (R-SC)
• Grassley (R-IA)
  
• Isakson (R-GA)
• McCain (R-AZ)
• Murkowski (R-AK)
• Shelby (R-AL)
• Thune (R-SD)
• KS Open (Brownback, R)
• UT Open (Bennett, R)
• Feingold (D-WI)
• Gillibrand (D-NY)
• Inouye (D-HI)
• Leahy (D-VT)
• Mikulski (D-MD)
• Schumer (D-NY)
• Wyden (D-OR)

Obama State Directors on Front Lines of 2010

By Nathan L. Gonzales

The men and women who served as state directors for Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign were on the front lines of one of the best-run political operations in recent history.

After Obama’s victory, more than a dozen of them took jobs in the administration. But another group couldn’t stay away from the campaign trail, and they are now at the center of the party’s efforts to retain its Congressional majorities.

“It is important that they stay engaged,” Organizing for America Deputy National Director Jeremy Bird said about the state directors.

“Folks were amazing, some of the best people I’ve ever worked with,” added Bird, who was the Maryland state director for the Obama campaign during the Democratic primary.

A comprehensive look at where the 50 general election state directors are today shows that former Obama operatives have key positions in Democratic efforts to hold control of the Senate in the November midterms. Click here for the chart of all 50 state directors.

In Connecticut, former Obama New Hampshire state director Mindy Myers was recently hired to manage state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal’s (D) campaign for retiring Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D) seat. Obama’s Connecticut state director, Justin Kronholm, is also working with the Blumenthal campaign as director of political operations.

In California, former Obama state director Mike Dorsey is deputy campaign manager for Sen. Barbara Boxer’s (D) re-election campaign. In 2008, Dorsey landed in Montana for the general election, where Obama lost by only 3 points.

In Washington state, Carol Albert managed Sen. Patty Murray’s (D) re-election in 2004, was Obama’s state director in 2008 and is at the helm of Murray’s campaign once again.

And in Colorado, Craig Hughes was a senior adviser to the Obama campaign in the Centennial State and is now managing appointed Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D) tough election bid this year.

Republicans will likely need to win three of those four states to get to a 51-seat majority in the next Congress.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, complete with more Obama campaign veterans, will be there to back up the campaigns in those states, if needed. DSCC field director Rob Hill was Obama’s Oregon state director before moving to Nevada as a senior adviser. (He’s also married to Jarel LaPan, who moved into the Oregon role for the Obama campaign and now works for the administration.) Jackie Bray worked in Ohio during the 2008 general election and is now at the DSCC as well.

After being deeply involved in the Obama campaign and experiencing the organization and enthusiasm firsthand, former state directors are trying to apply 2008’s successful tactics to their 2010 campaigns.

“It’s a reminder of the importance of building a true grass-roots operation,” explained Aaron Pickrell, Obama’s Ohio state director who is managing Gov. Ted Strickland’s (D) re-election bid this year.

Multiple former state directors would speak only on the condition of anonymity for fear of disrupting the rhythm and message of their tough races, but they all agreed that the Obama campaign did a fantastic job fusing the old and the new when it comes to voter contact.

“It’s important to utilize the Internet and new media, not just for communications, but as a field tool and voter contact tool,” said Pickrell, who worked with Bird and Bray in the Buckeye State. But “the most effective campaign is still knocking on doors and neighbor-to-neighbor contact.”

Multiple former state directors also agreed on the necessity of replicating the “buy-in” of the Obama campaign. “If people feel like they have ownership in the campaign, they are more likely to be involved,” Pickrell explained. Democratic campaigns nationwide are hoping to take advantage of the infrastructure from the 2008 campaign and tap in to the larger pool of potential voters and volunteers.

As the state director in Ohio, Pickrell was part of a somewhat exclusive club. Ohio was one of the 18 states targeted by the Obama campaign, and those state directors had a different set of marching orders than the rest. The other targeted states were Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Former Obama campaign operatives are also in key roles on the House side.

New Mexico state director Adrian Saenz is now chief of staff for Rep. Harry Teague, one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country. Moving north, former Florida Campaign for Change field director Angela Botticella is running Rep. Betsy Markey’s (D) campaign in Colorado’s 4th district, also one of the most competitive races this cycle.

While some former state directors, such as Saenz and Pickrell, are using the local expertise to help individual Democrats in 2010, others are using their influence at a broader level.

Former state directors Steve Schale (Florida), Craig Schirmer (Pennsylvania) and others are involved in 2010 races as consultants instead of on official campaign staffs. Former Missouri state director Buffy Wicks (who was one of four regional state directors early in the campaign) moved from the White House Office of Public Engagement to AKPD Message and Media, senior White House adviser David Axelrod’s consulting firm.

Former Virginia state director Mitch Stewart is the head of OFA, which is essentially the Obama campaign embedded within the Democratic National Committee.

The DNC just announced that it plans to invest $50 million into races this year. A chunk of that money includes staffing, field support, data and targeting, and volunteer programs provided by OFA.

While the DNC is focused on 2010, the OFA’s purpose is to keep the president’s supporters engaged to help this year and looking ahead to his re-election.

“Whether it’s 2012 or 20 years from now, the investment we’re putting in now is helpful for the long term,” Bird said.

Tricia Miller, Daniel Newhauser, Jeremy B. White, Kristin Coyner and Zack Hale contributed to this report. This story first appeared in Roll Call on April 27, 2010 and on CQPolitics.com on April 28, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

There Are Plenty of Reasons to Keep Your Eye on Patty Murray

By Stuart Rothenbeg

No, Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) isn’t likely to stand out in a crowd. She probably could walk through Washington, D.C.’s Union Station during lunch and draw barely a notice.

The three-term Democrat from Washington state isn’t as loud as many of her colleagues or as recognizable as those Senators who make the news every night. She’s not physically intimidating. There is nothing shocking about her voting record.

But that doesn’t mean that Murray, who serves on the Appropriations and Budget committees, is someone you can afford to ignore — or underestimate.

When she first ran, Republican strategists didn’t take Murray, who ran as a “mom in tennis shoes,” all that seriously. And when she upset GOP Rep. Rod Chandler in the 1992 Senate race, they figured that she was a political accident who wouldn’t last more than a term. But she beat a Republican Congresswoman in 1998 and another Republican Congressman in 2004, each time winning comfortably.

On Capitol Hill, Murray has been equally successful. One Democratic insider I spoke with talked glowingly about her staff, saying, “Her staff is always in the top five [on the Hill], and that’s a reflection of her seriousness.”

Murray, who turns 60 in October, currently is the secretary of the Democratic caucus, making her the fourth-ranking Democrat in the Senate behind Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.), Majority Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) and Charles Schumer (N.Y.), the vice chairman of the Democratic caucus. Schumer’s post was created for him after the 2006 elections (and because of his success at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee).

With Reid’s political future very much in doubt after November, surviving Democrats may need to appoint a new party leader after the midterms, and that could give Murray, who chaired the DSCC in the 2002 cycle, an opportunity to move up the ladder.

No woman has ever been a party leader or Whip in the Senate, so history is against Murray. But, according to some Democratic Capitol Hill insiders, if a nasty fight for leader develops between Durbin and Schumer after the midterms, as many expect, Murray could emerge either as an alternative to the two combative, in-your-face men or as an heir to one of the posts they leave vacant.

Indeed, it’s impossible to imagine the loser of a Durbin-Schumer fight becoming the party’s Whip, which would open the position for Murray, if she wants it.

“She has a fairly high level of elbows, and she is aware of it. There is no reason why her colleagues automatically would cut her out,” one Democrat said of Murray’s chance of moving up to Whip.

But even if Murray doesn’t move up her party’s leadership ladder, there is another reason to keep your eye on her.

Republicans are seriously contesting eight Senate seats currently held by Democrats — North Dakota, Delaware, Indiana, Nevada, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Colorado — and they are looking for at least two more seats to put into play in the hopes of netting 10 seats and taking back the Senate later this year.

With former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) looking at a run in Wisconsin and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) looking potentially vulnerable against the right challenger, those two states could be in the mix. But Washington could also be one of the states in play in November, and that makes Murray a potential Republican target.

Murray’s standing in public polling doesn’t suggest great weakness. Her favorability ratings are over 50 percent in published polls, and she holds comfortable leads over announced Republican challengers. But she trails unsuccessful Republican gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi in hypothetical ballot tests in the last three public polls.

Unfortunately, all of those surveys were conducted by Rasmussen Research, which uses automated technology and is widely derided by Democrats as being biased toward Republicans. So for many, it’s hard to be sure where Murray really stands with voters.

Rossi has lost two gubernatorial bids, very narrowly in 2004 and by a slightly wider margin in 2008, and he probably has one more serious run before he becomes classified as a perennial candidate. Initially, he dismissed GOP appeals for him to take on Murray, but he has grown increasingly intrigued by the possibility of a Senate run as the election cycle has evolved.

Even Democrats acknowledge that Rossi would be a serious challenger for Murray.

“If he runs, the race would be competitive,” one Democratic insider told me. “But Rossi no longer is new or fresh. And Sen. Murray still has the brand of a different voice in Washington. She isn’t going to lose that race.”

Republican operatives believe that even without Rossi they can give Murray a run for her money. They argue that Susan Hutchison is likely to run if Rossi doesn’t, and that the attractive former KIRO-TV anchor, who lost a bid for King County (Seattle) executive in November, “puts the race in play.”

Murray remains a clear favorite for re-election right now, but 2010 has the potential to be a very, very interesting year for her.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on March 15, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Can These Democrats Swim Against the Political Current in 2010?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Democrats rode national political waves during the past two cycles. There will likely be another wave this year, but this time the beneficiaries will be Republicans.

The 2010 election cycle’s dynamics make difficult races even harder for two appealing House Democratic candidates I interviewed recently, Suzan DelBene and Jon Hulburd.

DelBene, 48, is an impressive Democratic recruit in Washington’s 8th district. She worked for Microsoft for almost a decade before becoming vice president at an Internet startup firm (drugstore.com) and then CEO of a software/data integration company (Nimble Technology).

She later returned to Microsoft as a corporate vice president. Her husband is a senior VP at the company, a very high-level position. Money shouldn’t be a problem for her bid.

DelBene has already put $500,000 into her race, ending 2009 with $773,000 in the bank. She expects the race to cost $3.5 million, certainly not out of line considering that Democrat Darcy Burner spent almost $4.5 million in her 2008 rematch against Rep. Dave Reichert (R), not counting the more than $1.6 million the DCCC spent in the district.

DelBene is poised, well-spoken and likable. She has a strong résumé of accomplishments and considerable business experience, and since she has never run for political office before, she can run as a political outsider and an agent of change. All those are pluses in this environment.

On the other hand, the Reed College graduate is a down-the-line liberal — pro-stimulus, pro-cap-and-trade, pro-House-health-care-bill, anti-Stupak-amendment (a measure that is offensive to abortion-rights advocates) — in a district where the liberal Burner came up just short twice, during great Democratic years.

The 8th district is evenly divided among Republicans and Democrats, but Reichert’s appeal is demonstrated by his ability to survive two Democratic waves. Had DelBene run last time, she probably would have won. But 2010 is looking like a much different year.

Democrat Hulburd faces a similar challenge in his bid to turn Arizona’s 3rd district blue. Rep. John Shadegg’s (R) retirement creates an open-seat opportunity for Democrats, especially given the huge Republican field and uncertain outcome of the party’s primary.

Hulburd, 51, is a commercial litigator making his first run for office. Like DelBene, he is well-spoken, poised and has substantial personal resources, a solid Democratic recruit who has been active in his community. He raised $315,000 in the fourth quarter and ended the year with $259,000 on hand.

Stressing his independence and the fact that he isn’t “a politician,” Hulburd hopes to tap the public’s dissatisfaction with Washington, D.C., and with the state Legislature.

The open seat presumably enhances Democrats’ chances, but past election numbers aren’t encouraging. Barack Obama drew 42 percent in the district, 1 point better than John Kerry did in 2004 and about the same as Al Gore did in 2000.

The 2008 Democratic nominee, Bob Lord, spent $1.8 million on the race (but inexplicably went dark on TV at a crucial time) and benefited from just more than $2 million in independent expenditure spending by the DCCC, all of which got him just 42 percent of the vote.

Hulburd might have done better as the Democratic nominee last time. But given Lord and Obama’s showings last time and the different mood of this cycle, Hulburd will need a deeply wounded Republican nominee to have much of a chance.

Another Democrat who faces the same problem is Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who is running for Senate in Indiana.

The 8th district Congressman is running for retiring Sen. Evan Bayh’s seat, and if the calendar said 2006 or 2008, I’d be putting my money on Ellsworth. But it doesn’t.

I haven’t interviewed Ellsworth since he ran for the House in 2006, but he is just the kind of Democrat who could win statewide in the Hoosier State in a favorable or even neutral political climate.

Socially conservative and a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, he opposes legal abortion and gun control, and he voted against both cap-and-trade legislation and the stimulus bill that passed the House. He did, however, support the final version of the stimulus that eventually was signed into law, as well as the House Democrats’ health care bill.

A former police officer and county sheriff, Ellsworth drew 61 percent in defeating a Republican incumbent in 2006. Two years later, he increased his showing to more than 64 percent at the same time that Obama was drawing only 47 percent in the district.

The Democrat obviously fits his district well, but as CQ’s Politics in America noted, his “telegenic good looks hasn’t hurt him, either.”

But this year, Ellsworth will be on the defensive because of his party, and his voting record will give Republicans ammunition. His likely GOP opponent, former Sen. Dan Coats, has plenty of vulnerabilities (including telling an audience that he plans to move to North Carolina when he retires), but being a Republican won’t be one of them.

Of DelBene, Hulburd and Ellsworth, I suspect that Ellsworth has the best chance of swimming against the tide. Senate races get more visibility than House contests, and the GOP field isn’t intimidating in the Indiana Senate race.

Timing is everything in politics, and good candidates sometimes find themselves running in bad places or in bad years. For DelBene and Hulburd, a difficult race may have morphed into a nearly impossible one right now.


This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on March 11, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Plus 10 in the Senate? Republicans Certainly Not There Yet

By Stuart Rothenberg

Having seen victories by Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, the 1994 Republican and 2006 Democratic Congressional sweeps, and Sen. Scott Brown’s (R) recent Massachusetts victory, I’m not inclined to rule out unexpected outcomes — especially nine months before an event.

But the recent explosion of talk of Republicans gaining 10 seats in the Senate is simply premature. Right now, the GOP has an opportunity to net as many as eight Senate seats. That’s a huge number, especially considering that Democrats have 18 seats up this fall, but it is well short of control.

The new political landscape has resulted in an improved environment for the GOP, including the very real possibility that the party can retain all four of its most vulnerable open seats, in Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and New Hampshire.

For the moment, let’s assume the GOP avoids losing any of its own seats.

Republicans have the advantage in four Democratic-held Senate seats — North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas and Nevada. In addition, they are no worse than even money in four others — Indiana, Illinois, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

So, any chance of gaining 10 seats would require Republican candidates to win at least two of the following four states: Connecticut, California, Wisconsin and Washington.

Early polling in Connecticut shows state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal ahead of both former Rep. Rob Simmons and businesswoman Linda McMahon, the two Republicans most likely to be the eventual nominee.

Simmons is a quirky ex-legislator who built a moderate record while representing eastern Connecticut in the House. McMahon is a wealthy, self-funding first-time candidate whose claim to fame and wealth, professional wrestling, is widely seen as crude and violent.

Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D) exit from the race hurt Simmons, whose main argument has been substance and electability. He is now an underdog for the GOP nomination. McMahon’s wealth (she has promised to spend tens of millions of dollars), outsider persona, poise and relatively conservative positioning makes her stronger than Simmons in a primary and potentially more of a threat to Blumenthal.

Still, both Republicans start far behind Blumenthal, in the polls and in handicapping. A four-term statewide officeholder, Blumenthal is a smart Democrat in a Democratic state. He’ll raise plenty of cash and begins with a clear advantage in the race.

In California, voters aren’t particularly enthusiastic about Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). She’s a polarizing political figure and running at or below 50 percent in ballot tests against either Assemblyman Chuck DeVore or businesswoman Carly Fiorina, two of the leading Republicans in the race.

Still, DeVore doesn’t have the breadth of appeal or money to defeat Boxer, while Fiorina has plenty of baggage.

Boxer’s prospects would take a hit, of course, if California Republicans were to nominate former Rep. Tom Campbell, a moderate who would have considerable statewide appeal — if he could accumulate the resources for an expensive statewide race. But Campbell’s past fundraising isn’t encouraging.

For now, Boxer’s weakness does not yet translate into a serious Republican opportunity.

In Wisconsin, some polling has shown Sen. Russ Feingold (D) having trouble in a race against former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). The only problem is that Thompson isn’t now running for the Senate, though he is considering it. And Feingold, who voted against the Troubled Asset Relief Program, is a savvy politician who has developed a reputation for independence.

The main Republican contender currently is Terrence Wall, a prosperous real estate developer who put $300,000 into his campaign but hasn’t paid state taxes in nine of the past 10 years. Democrats apparently have other tax ammunition to use against Wall.

When I interviewed Wall recently, he refused to give his date of birth. He only offered the year of his birth (and his age), apparently because he is concerned about identity theft. Wall, in other words, has a long way to go before he is a serious threat to Feingold, even in a bad year for Democrats.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) is another smart politician, and while Republican insiders hope to recruit someone who can test the Senator, they don’t have a formidable challenger yet. Until they do, there isn’t any reason to see Washington as a GOP takeover opportunity.

Obviously, Sen. Evan Bayh’s (D-Ind.) sudden announcement Monday that he will not seek re-election improves GOP prospects in that state and therefore nationally.

While some polling showed the Democrat at risk, a recent Research 2000 poll for the liberal Web site the Daily Kos showed him leading former Sen. Dan Coats by 20 points. Bayh’s political savvy, strong connection to Hoosier voters and $13 million bank account would have made him a formidable foe for any Republican challenger, so his exit automatically improves GOP prospects, especially given the overall landscape of the election cycle.

Bayh’s retirement puts an eighth Democratic seat at considerable risk, forcing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to be even more on the defensive than it was. But in another sense, it doesn’t change things fundamentally. For even after Bayh’s retirement, a Republican gain of 10 seats is more hype than reality.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on February 16, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

GOP Bets on Super Bowl Vets in 2010

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Jon Runyan expected to be in Miami right now, getting ready to play in another Super Bowl, but instead he’s in New Jersey preparing to challenge an incumbent Member of Congress.

After a dozen years in the National Football League and off-season knee surgery last year, Runyan looked like he was trading in his shoulder pads for politics. But in November, the offensive lineman put his Congressional ambitions on hold to take one more run at a championship ring. He signed mid-season with the San Diego Chargers, a popular pick to make this year’s Super Bowl.

“That was more than half the decision. You’re not just going to play out six weeks [of the regular season],” Runyan explained in a recent phone interview. “It just didn’t work out that way,” Runyan added, talking about the Chargers’ stunning 17-14 loss to the underdog New York Jets in the divisional round of the playoffs.

If the Chargers had made it, this year would have been Runyan’s third Super Bowl appearance.

In 2000, Runyan’s teammate Kevin Dyson came up a yard short of the goal line on the last play of Super Bowl XXXIV as the Tennessee Titans lost to the St. Louis Rams. “I’ll always remember that last play,” said Runyan. “That snapshot will always be in my head.” Five years later, Runyan played in Super Bowl XXXIX with the Philadelphia Eagles, but they lost 24-21 to the New England Patriots.

Now the 6-foot-7-inch, 330-pound Pro Bowler is stepping onto a new playing field.

Runyan (R), 36, is gearing up to take on freshman Rep. John Adler (D) in New Jersey’s 3rd District and should officially announce his candidacy in the next couple of weeks. But even before he jumped into the race, Democrats wasted little time flinging mud at Runyan.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee attacked Runyan for keeping four donkeys on some of his property in order to decrease his tax liability by claiming an agricultural use. But don’t expect a guy who started 190 consecutive games in the trenches of the NFL to rattle easily.

“You’re living your life under a microscope,” explained Runyan, comparing life as an NFL player to becoming a Congressional candidate. “You’ve got to put in the long hours and hard work to be prepared.”

During his decision-making process, Runyan relied on former New York Giants wide receiver Phil McConkey for advice. McConkey ran for Congress in 1990 in New Jersey’s 12th district, but he lost in the GOP primary to Dick Zimmer, who won the open seat in the general election.

Four years earlier, McConkey caught a touchdown pass off the fingertips of teammate Mark Bavaro to help lead the Giants to a 39-20 victory over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXI. Even though McConkey lost his race, he might be able to advise Runyan on how to convince New York Giants fans in New Jersey’s 3rd that it’s OK to vote for a former Eagles player.

Runyan isn’t the only Super Bowl veteran hitting the campaign trail this year.

Former tight end Clint Didier spent some great years in Washington, D.C., winning a pair of Super Bowls with the Redskins in the 1980s, but now he’s running for the U.S. Senate to tackle bigger government. “Our government is way too big and outreached its responsibilities,” Didier said in an interview this week.

Didier played on the Redskins’ championship team that defeated the Miami Dolphins, 27-17, in Super Bowl XVII in 1983. A year later, he was the Redskins’ leading receiver when they lost Super Bowl XVIII to the Los Angeles Raiders, 38-9. Didier got one more Super Bowl shot, and he made the most of it.

The night before Super Bowl XXII in 1988, Didier had a dream that the Redskins would come from behind and that he would catch a touchdown pass. The next day, the team did just that.

Didier’s touchdown catch capped a Super Bowl record 35-point second quarter for the Redskins, on their way to a 42-10 win over the Denver Broncos. “I think the good Lord just wanted to calm me down so I didn’t drop that pass,” laughed Didier about the dream.

After he retired in 1990, Didier moved back to the state of Washington, bought a farm north of Pasco and raised his family. Now he feels “called to serve this country.” Unlike Runyan, Didier’s bid is much more of a long shot. The 50-year-old Republican is not even guaranteed the GOP nomination to take on Sen. Patty Murray (D) in November.

Former Minnesota Vikings running back Jim Lindsey (R) is a potential candidate for the U.S. Senate in Arkansas. Lindsey, 65, played in Super Bowl IV when his Vikings and their Purple People Eaters defense lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, 23-7. But he might get the most political traction from playing on the 1964 national championship football team at the University of Arkansas.

Lindsey, who now owns a large real estate company, is still deciding whether to join an increasingly crowded GOP field of candidates who want the right to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), who has become one of the most vulnerable Senators in the country.

Republicans almost added yet another Super Bowl veteran to their list of candidates, but Mike Minter declined to challenge Rep. Larry Kissell (D) in North Carolina’s 8th district. The former defensive back for the Carolina Panthers equaled a career high in tackles and played part of Super Bowl XXXVIII on a broken foot, but his team lost to the Patriots, 32-29.

Former tight end Jay Riemersma, who played football with Runyan and the University of Michigan, is running in Michigan’s 2nd district. He’s just one of four Republicans vying to replace Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R), who is running for governor. But Riemersma joined the Buffalo Bills after the team’s string of four consecutive Super Bowl appearances.

Former Bills quarterback Jack Kemp served in Congress for almost two decades, representing upstate New York as a Republican. He fell one game short of playing in Super Bowl I when his team lost to the Chiefs in the AFL Championship game in 1966.

Former Oklahoma Rep. Steve Largent (R), the Hall of Fame wide receiver and arguably Congress’ most famous former NFL player along with Kemp, never played in a Super Bowl in his time with the Seattle Seahawks.

There is a clear link between former football players running for office and the Republican Party, from former Oklahoma Rep. J.C. Watts to 2006 gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann (Pa.). North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler (D) looks like the exception rather than the rule.

Of course, the GOP is pleased with this, even if it hasn’t always proved to be a winning combination.

“They understand the importance of executing the blocking and tackling of political campaigns,” said National Republican Congressional Committee Communications Director Ken Spain, “Hard work and discipline are hallmark Republican values that also happen to make for good professional football players.”

This story first appeared on RollCall.com and CQPolitics.com on February 6, 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

By Stuart Rothenberg

A little more than 10 years ago (Jan. 17, 2000, to be exact), I began writing my “Dangerous Dozen” columns about open House seats, and the recent flurry of retirements means there finally are enough to fill a list for the 2010 cycle.

The fact that so many of the districts on this list are currently held by Democrats reflects how strongly the political landscape is tilting toward the GOP. As always, races toward the top of the list are the most likely to change party control, but every race on this list is a serious possibility to flip.

Tennessee’s 6th. With few Democratic officeholders downballot in this Middle Tennessee district that went 62 percent for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008 and 60 percent for President George W. Bush in 2004, you can already put retiring Rep. Bart Gordon’s (D) seat into the Republican column. The GOP primary will select the district’s next Member of Congress.

Louisiana’s 3rd. The field hasn’t really started to develop in the race to succeed Rep. Charlie Melancon (D), but the fundamentals look terrible for Democrats in a midterm election year with President Barack Obama in the White House. Bush carried the district in 2004 with 58 percent, and McCain won it with 61 percent four years later. Only a Republican screw-up could keep this district blue.

Delaware’s At-Large. Rep. Mike Castle’s Senate run is a double-edged sword for Republicans, since the party will have a hard time holding his House seat. It isn’t impossible, of course, but they’ll need an unusually strong nominee (and a strong political wave) to beat the likely Democratic nominee, former Lt. Gov. John Carney.

Kansas’ 3rd. For Democrats, this looks like a bad cycle for Rep. Dennis Moore to retire and this seat to come open. The party is not competitive in the two big statewide contests this year, so both national and state dynamics favor the GOP. Both primary fields are wide open, though the early favorite on the Republican side may be the party’s 2008 nominee, former state Sen. Nick Jordan. Of course, another ideological split within the local GOP could get Democrats back into the picture.

Tennessee’s 8th. Rep. John Tanner (D) is retiring, and Democrats got a solid candidate in state Sen. Roy Herron, a strong fundraiser and veteran officeholder. But Tennessee could be a giant headache for Democrats, and being a longtime Democratic state legislator may be more of a liability than an asset in 2010.

Hawaii’s 1st. The yet-to-be-scheduled special election to fill Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s expected open seat could be another rude surprise for Democrats. Without a runoff, Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) could sneak past multiple Democratic hopefuls to give Republicans another seat — and a major public relations victory before the midterms. Democrats need to figure out a way to keep the number of their candidates to a minimum.

Arkansas’ 1st. Bush carried this conservative northeast Arkansas district with 52 percent, but McCain drew a solid 59 percent four years later. Plenty of Democratic officeholders are looking to succeed retiring Rep. Marion Berry (D), while Republican options appear fewer. The key question mark is the size of the GOP wave and how disastrous the cycle is for Democrats in Arkansas.

Illinois’ 10th. If the seat held by Rep. Mark Kirk (R) had come open in 2006 or 2008, it would have been a slam-dunk for Democrats. But the environment is very different. The outlook for November depends somewhat on Tuesday’s primaries, but there is no doubt that Democrats see this as a rare takeover opportunity this cycle.

Arkansas’ 2nd. Retiring Rep. Vic Snyder’s (D) central Arkansas district went narrowly for Bush in 2004 and voted 54 percent for McCain in 2008. Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin gives the GOP a solid nominee, but a number of serious Democrats are looking at the race.

New Hampshire’s 2nd. Oh how different things looked in New Hampshire a year ago. Democrats finished up their near sweep of the Granite State, and the GOP’s fortunes there suddenly looked like any other New England state. But the national mood has changed, and GOP optimism has soared. Former Rep. Charles Bass leads a large GOP field, while Democrats have a primary of their own to succeed Rep. Paul Hodes (D).

Pennsylvania’s 7th. The ranking of the last two races depends on whether you are making a selection based on where the race is now or where it may be in the fall. Former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan gives the GOP a serious likely nominee. The district no longer leans Republican — Bush won 47 percent in 2004 and McCain only 43 percent in 2008 — and Democrats have a top-tier candidate of their own in state Rep. Bryan Lentz. Still, in a strong Republican year, Democrats have to be nervous about losing Rep. Joe Sestak’s district.

Washington’s 3rd. Retiring Rep. Brian Baird’s (D) open seat performed slightly better for McCain than for Bush in 2004 (and better than Pennsylvania’s 7th did for the same Republicans). But the nomination won’t be decided until the fall, and Democrats have a slew of bigger names looking at the contest. Still, if the GOP gets the right candidate and a partisan wave builds, this district could move up the list as a takeover opportunity.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and CQPolitics.com on February 1, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Colorado 4 & Washington 8

The July 10, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of introduction to this edition:

Colorado 4: Since You’ve Been Gone
By Nathan L. Gonzales

After a couple cycles of frustration, Democrats finally ousted Republican Cong. Marilyn Musgrave last year. Now, they have the challenging task of keeping Colorado’s 4th District in their column.

Since her initial election in 2002, Musgrave’s reelection percentages steadily declined as she became more and more polarizing, continually under-performing the Republican nature of the district.

Last cycle, former Senate aide and small businesswoman Betsy Markey (D) ousted Musgrave fairly handily, with some help from a strong showing by Barack Obama (D) at the top of the ticket.

Now, there are a number of Republicans aiming for Markey, including state Rep. Cory Gardner, University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero and Fort Collins City Councilman Diggs Brown.

The race is just getting started, but Markey will be a top Republican target next year. And Democrats will have to adjust to life after Musgrave and keep up Democratic excitement without her or Obama on the ballot. Subscribers get the whole story in the print edition of the Report.


Washington 8: Badge of Honor
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Republican Cong. Dave Reichert survived the Democratic wave of 2006. Two years later, he survived as well, and he out-did himself by improving his winning percentage while his party sunk further into the minority. Democrats are hoping that the third time will be the charm.

The competitive nature of Washington’s 8th District virtually guarantees that Reichert will be a target once again. He’s one of only six Republicans to represent districts that both John Kerry and Barack Obama won at the presidential level.

After defeating former Microsoft manager Darcy Burner (D) in two consecutive elections, Reichert is likely to face former Microsoft vice president Suzan DelBene (D). Democrats believe she’ll bring more stature and some personal money and will give Reichert his toughest race yet. Subscribers get the whole story in the print edition of the Report.