Paterson’s Timing Has Been Perfect for Democrats in N.Y. Specials

By Nathan L. Gonzales

While New York Gov. David Paterson’s (D) performance in office has been widely panned, his timing in three House special elections this cycle has been impeccable.

Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) resigned his 29th district seat more than a month ago, but Paterson still has not acknowledged the vacancy nor issued a date for a special election. State law gives the governor latitude to announce a vacancy, but when he does, a special election must be called.

According to sources in Washington, D.C., and the Empire State, Paterson has good relations with the New York delegation as well as the offices of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), and he leveraged those key relationships to get good advice on the timing of the special elections.

In the case of the 29th district vacancy, if Paterson were to call a special election today, Democrats would likely lose the seat. Their candidate, an unknown former CIA employee who had been living in Washington, is just beginning to get a campaign operation together and the political climate continues to be difficult for Democrats.

Paterson initially told reporters that he would call a special election to fill Massa’s seat “as soon as possible” but has since backed off. In a March 31 statement, his office raised concerns about “the financial impact that a special election could have on the county level.” A spokeswoman said no final decision had been made yet and reiterated that point to Roll Call again this week.

Democrats in the district say they would prefer to avoid a special election, also citing the costs involved. And one local Democratic source told Roll Call, “I wouldn’t hold my breath,” waiting for the governor to call a special, adding that there is a strong likelihood that the November general election will be the only contest to decide who the next Member from the 29th district is.

That has Republicans squawking about Democrats’ stalling tactics. Former Corning Mayor Tom Reed, the Republicans’ consensus candidate for Massa’s seat, has been publicly calling on the governor to call the election “forthwith,” but to no avail.

It’s hardly a coincidence that Democrats will benefit if Paterson chooses not to call a special election.

Paterson has “done a good job of reading the tea leaves with the delegation,” according to one New York Democratic consultant, who noted that the exception was the governor’s handling of then-Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand’s appointment to the Senate early last year.

But Paterson handled Gillibrand’s open seat extremely well. She resigned her House seat on Jan. 26, but the governor didn’t declare the vacancy until Feb. 23.

That extra month allowed Democrats to find their candidate, businessman Scott Murphy, and get him up to speed and ready to go against state Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco (R), who started the race with significantly higher name recognition. Murphy won the March 31 special election with 50 percent of the vote.

Last fall, Republican Rep. John McHugh vacated his 23rd district seat to become President Barack Obama’s secretary of the Army. The GOP Congressman resigned on Sept. 21, Paterson only took eight days to announce the vacancy that time and set the election to coincide with the regularly scheduled Nov. 3 elections.

After a popular state legislator passed on the race, Democrats quickly sorted through a list of others to find attorney Bill Owens, who won the November special election with 48 percent over Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. The GOP nominee, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, received almost 6 percent even though she dropped out late in the race and endorsed Owens.

Emily Cadei contributed to this report.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com and CQPolitics.com on April 18, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

If Republicans Fail to Win the House, Look Behind the ‘Eight’ Ball

By Stuart Rothenberg

I’ve always said that the party campaign committees usually get too much credit for success and too much blame for failure, so I’m certainly not pointing fingers in this column. But if Republicans fall a handful of seats short of taking over the House in the fall midterms, it could be because of the party’s inability to recruit strong candidates in a short list of districts with highly vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

North Carolina’s 8th. Freshman Rep. Larry Kissell owes his membership in the Congressional fraternity to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which dragged him across the finish line in 2008. But if Kissell wins a second term, he ought to send a thank-you note to Tar Heel Republicans for failing to find a top-tier challenger in the best Republican year since 1994.

The DCCC spent just under $2.4 million to help elect Kissell — almost $1 million more than he spent on his own campaign. That made Kissell the second-largest beneficiary of DCCC independent expenditures, right behind New Hampshire Rep. Carol Shea-Porter.

The district, which stretches from Charlotte to Fayetteville and includes lots of rural territory in between, went narrowly for President Barack Obama in 2008 (52 percent) and more substantially for George W. Bush in 2004 (54 percent).

National Republican insiders aren’t writing off this race just yet, but they don’t have the challenger they once hoped for.

GOP insiders first tried to woo businessman Mike Minter, a former all-pro with the NFL’s Carolina Panthers, into the race. He ultimately decided against a bid. Then the National Republican Congressional Committee tried to coax former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory into the contest. McCrory had recently lost a bid for governor and seriously considered the Congressional race. But he, too, said no.

The Republican field includes businessman Tim D’Annunzio, who calls Kissell a “socialist” in a video on his Web site and boasts endorsements from former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.), activist Bay Buchanan, former sportscaster Harold Johnson and businessman Hal Jordan, who narrowly lost a state legislative race in 2006.

The favorite for the GOP nomination is Lou Huddleston, who spent three decades in the Army, retiring as a colonel in 2003. He, too, lost a state legislative race, in 2008, drawing 38 percent.

The Republican nominee may somehow ride a massive political wave to victory against Kissell. But unless that happens, this district will be the best example of a wasted GOP opportunity against a politically unimpressive, vulnerable House Democrat.

Georgia’s 8th. If Larry Kissell is at one end of the campaign quality spectrum, Rep. Jim Marshall (D) is at the other. Yet both constitute missed Republican opportunities.

Marshall is smart, cocky and politically astute. He got clobbered in his first run for Congress in 2000, but came back two years later to win an open seat. In 2006, he held off a former Congressman (who had represented part of the territory when the state’s districts were drawn differently) in a nail-biter.

Marshall defeated retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Rick Goddard (R) comfortably in 2008, 57 percent to 43 percent, and that may help explain why no top-tier challenger has stepped forward for 2010.

All of this is disappointing for GOP strategists given the nature of the district and the developing national Republican wave. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried the district with 56 percent in 2008, and Bush carried it in 2004 with 61 percent of the vote. In a year when voters may want to send a message to Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Republicans ought to have a candidate who can tap that voter sentiment in a district like Marshall’s. So far, they don’t.

Illinois’ 8th. Rep. Melissa Bean (D) is a tough adversary, like Marshall. She’s focused, politically astute and running in an expensive media market. But given her district and the kind of political year it may be, it’s hard to believe that Republicans came up empty-handed against her in 2010.

Her opponent this year is Joe Walsh (R), a favorite of tea party activists and an unsuccessful candidate for Congress (against then-Rep. Sidney Yates) in 1996 and for the state Legislature in 1998.

I don’t know if anyone can beat Bean this time, but her 6-point victory against David McSweeney (R) in a horrendous year for Republicans and her subsequent 20-point win over inept challenger Steve Greenberg (R) in a year when Obama was sweeping the state shouldn’t be enough to earn her a cakewalk in 2010. It has, however.

Wisconsin’s 8th. Finally, Republicans can’t be thrilled by their field against Rep. Steve Kagen (D). State Rep. Roger Roth, whose uncle served in Congress, could develop into a credible threat to Kagen, as could businessman Reid Ribble. Former state Rep. Terri McCormick and Door County Supervisor Marc Savard hope to do the same.

But no matter how you slice it, the Republican field in this GOP-leaning district doesn’t look particularly intimidating.

While McCain drew only 45 percent here in 2008, Bush won it with 55 percent four years earlier. Kagen barely won the open seat in 2006 but won it comfortably two years later. Still, given the national landscape, the district’s bent and Kagen’s personal style, a strong GOP challenger would put this district into play.

Right now, it’s not clear that the field includes a challenger who can win, though in a big Republican wave, even the current crop of contenders can’t be dismissed.


This column first appeared in Roll Call and on CQPolitics.com on April 15, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New House Ratings: 44 Seats Moved Toward GOP

We are still seven months until the midterm elections, so there is at least some possibility that the landscape could shift or that Democratic attacks on the GOP could keep Republican gains down to a minimum.

Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.

We've moved 44 seats toward the Republicans and only 4 toward the Democrats.

Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans
Special Elections in italics

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 13 D)

• AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
• FL 24 (Kosmas, D) *
  
• IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
• IL 14 (Foster, D) *
  
• MI 1 (Open; Stupak, D)
  
• MI 7 (Schauer, D)
• NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
• NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
• NY 24 (Arcuri, D) *
• NV 3 (Titus, D) *
  
• PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
• PA 12 (Open; Murtha, D) *
  
• TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
• WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 9 D)

• AL 2 (Bright, D)
• AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D) *
  
• FL 8 (Grayson, D)
• ID 1 (Minnick, D)
• IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D) *
  
• KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
• MS 1 (Childers, D)
• VA 2 (Nye, D) *
  
• VA 5 (Perriello, D)

Lean Republican (3 R, 7 D)

• CA 3 (Lungren, R)
• CO 4 (Markey, D) *
  
• FL 25 (Open; M. Diaz-Balart, R) #
  
• LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
• MD 1 (Kratovil, D) *
• NM 2 (Teague, D) *
• NY 29 (Open; Massa, D) *
  
• OH 1 (Driehaus, D) *
• OH 15 (Kilroy, D) *
  
• WA 8 (Reichert, R)
  

Republican Favored (5 R, 1 D)

• CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
• NE 2 (Terry, R)
• OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
• PA 6 (Gerlach, R) *
  
• PA 15 (Dent, R)
• TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D) *
  

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 4 D)

• HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) *
• ND A-L (Pomeroy, D) *
• SC 5 (Spratt, D) *
• WV 1 (Mollohan, D) *
  

Lean Democratic (1 R, 15 D)

• AZ 5 (Mitchell, D) *
  
• AZ 8 (Giffords, D) *
• DE -AL (Open; Castle, R) *
  
• IN 9 (Hill, D)
• IA 3 (Boswell, D) *
  
• MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D) *
  
• MO 4 (Skelton, D)
• NJ 3 (Adler, D) *
• NY 1 (Bishop, D)
• NY 19 (Hall, D)
• OH 16 (Boccieri, D) *
• OH 18 (Space, D) *
• PA 4 (Altmire, D) *
• PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) *
• VA 9 (Boucher, D) *
• WI 7 (Obey, D) *
  

Democrat Favored (1 R, 19 D)

• CA 11 (McNerney, D)
  
• CO 3 (Salazar, D)
• CT 5 (Murphy, D)
  
• FL 22 (Klein, D) *
• IL 11 (Halvorson, D) *
• IN 2 (Donnelly, D) *
  
• LA 2 (Cao, R)
• NM 1 (Heinrich, D) *
  
• NY 13 (McMahon, D)
• NY 20 (Murphy, D)
• NY 23 (Owens, D) #
  
• NC 8 (Kissell, D)
• OH 13 (Sutton, D) *
• PA 3 (Dahlkemper, D) *
• PA 8 (Murphy, D) *
• PA 10 (Carney, D) *
• PA 17 (Holden, D)
• SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)
• TX 17 (Edwards, D)
• WI 8 (Kagen, D)

Total seats in play: 79
Republican seats: 11
Democratic seats: 68

Dropped from the list:
MN 3 (Paulsen, R) *, MN 6 (Bachmann, R) *, OH 2 (Schmidt, R) *, CA 44 (Calvert, R) *, CA 47 (Sanchez, D) #, GA 8 (Marshall, D) #

New Print Edition: House Overview

Subscribers already have the April 9, 2010 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report, but here is an excerpt from the introduction to our House Overview issue:

House Outlook For 2010

Democrats now have an accomplishment with the passage of health care reform, but it’s far from clear that it dramatically enhances their prospects for the fall, as some of their officeholders and supporters argue.

Polling still shows the public dissatisfied with the country’s direction and with President Barack Obama’s performance, and as long as the national unemployment outlook doesn’t start to show significant improvement, Democratic prospects for November are poor.

Democrats will have the financial advantage in the fall, and their strategists will try to localize elections, (just as Republicans tried to do for a number of elections). But the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and major Republican House gains are extremely likely.

With 68 Democratic House seats at risk and only 11 Republican seats in play – to say nothing of national and districts-level survey data showing voters hesitant to support Democratic incumbents – it’s clear that the battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the House is at risk.

Subscribers get the rest of the overview, race-by-race analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as our ratings.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as updated House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races. The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as updated House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.