Friday, October 27, 2006

2006 House Ratings

For race-by-race analysis and explanation of the ratings, you must be a subscriber to the print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report. For a subscription form, click here.

Current Rothenberg Political Report projection: Democratic gain of 18-28 seats, with the caveat that larger gains surely are possible. (Democrats need to net 15 seats for a majority.)

PURE TOSS-UP (17 R, 0 D)
  • CT 2 (Simmons, R)
  • CT 4 (Shays, R)
  • CT 5 (Johnson, R)
  • FL 16 (Open; Foley, R)
  • FL 22 (Shaw, R)
  • IL 6 (Open; Hyde, R)
  • MN 6 (Open; Kennedy, R)
  • NM 1 (Wilson, R)
  • NC 11 (Taylor, R)
  • NY 26 (Reynolds, R)
  • OH 1 (Chabot, R)
  • OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
  • PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
  • PA 8 (Fitzpatrick, R)
  • VA 2 (Drake, R)
  • TX 22 (Open; DeLay, R)
  • WI 8 (Open; Green, R)
TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (6 R, 0 D)
  • CA 4 (Doolittle, R)
  • CA 11 (Pombo, R)
  • KY 4 (Davis, R)
  • NH 2 (Bass, R)
  • NV 3 (Porter, R)
  • WA 8 (Reichert, R)
TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (3 R, 4 D)
  • FL 13 (Open; Harris, R)
  • GA 8 (Marshall, D)
  • GA 12 (Barrow, D)
  • IL 8 (Bean, D)
  • IN 9 (Sodrel, R)
  • IA 3 (Boswell, D)
  • NY 24 (Open; Boehlert, R)

LEAN REPUBLICAN (10 R, 0 D)
  • AZ 1 (Renzi, R)
  • AZ 5 (Hayworth, R)
  • CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
  • ID 1 (Open; Otter, R)
  • KY 3 (Northup, R)
  • MN 1 (Gutknecht, R)
  • NY 20 (Sweeney, R)
  • NY 25 (Walsh, R)
  • NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
  • TX 23 (Bonilla, R)
LEAN DEMOCRATIC (6 R, 0 D)
  • IA 1 (Open; Nussle, R)
  • IN 2 (Chocola, R)
  • OH 15 (Pryce, R)
  • OH 18 (Open; Ney, R)
  • PA 7 (Weldon, R)
  • PA 10 (Sherwood, R)
REPUBLICAN FAVORED (11 R, 0 D)
  • CA 50 (Bilbray, R)
  • CO 5 (Open; Hefley, R)
  • KS 2 (Ryun, R)
  • KY 2 (Lewis, R)
  • NV 2 (Open; Gibbons, R)
  • NJ 7 (Ferguson, R)
  • NY 3 (King, R)
  • NY 19 (Kelly, R)
  • OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
  • PA 4 (Hart, R)
  • WY AL (Cubin, R)
DEMOCRAT FAVORED (3 R, 1 D)
  • AZ 8 (Open; Kolbe, R)
  • CO 7 (Open; Beauprez, R)
  • IN 8 (Hostettler, R)
  • VT A-L (Open; Sanders, D)