Ballot Measure Update

By Louis Jacobson

Here are some polls on statewide ballot measures that were released too late to be included in the Rothenberg Political Report's original ballot measure rundown.

Of special note are one poll which shows Arizona's same-sex marriage ban trailing badly (though another poll has it comfortably ahead); a second recent survey in blue-state Oregon that has a parental-consent-for-abortion measure up by 20 points; and big leads for two measures that would require government to either pay landholders for regulatory barriers to development or else waive those regulations.

In addition, conservatives will be happy with some of the poll results on immigration restrictions and an effort to curb affirmative action, while liberals will be pleased to find minimum-wage hikes winning easily in two states won twice by President Bush.

Abortion

• Oregon Measure 43. Requires waiting period and parental notification for minors seeking an abortion. Riley Research, Oct.-51% yes, 31% no. Previous: Davis-Hibbitts-Midghall for Oregonian/KATU, Sep.--54% yes, 35% no.
  

Stem cell research

• Missouri Amendment 2. Allows embryonic stem cell research. Research 2000 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV, Oct.-51% yes, 35% no. Previous: Research 2000 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV, August-- 58% yes, 37% no.

Affirmative action

• Michigan Proposal 2. Bars state universities from discriminating on basis of race. EPIC/MRA, Oct.-50% yes, 41% no. Previous: EPIC/MRA for Detroit News/WXYZ, Sep.--48% yes, 37% no. Detroit Free Press, August--41% yes, 43% no.

Same-sex marriage

• Arizona Prop 107. Bans same-sex marriage. ASU/KAET-TV, Oct.-30% yes, 56% no. Northern Arizona University, Oct.-51% yes, 42% no.
• Virginia Question 1. Bans same-sex marriage. Washington Post, Oct. - 53% yes, 43% no. Mason-Dixon, Oct.-52% yes, 42% no.
• Wisconsin Question 1. Bans same-sex marriage. St. Norbert College, Oct.-51% yes, 44% no. Previous: Diversified Research for wispolitics.com, Sept.--53% yes, 39% no.
  

Minimum wage

• Arizona Prop 202. Raises minimum wage; indexes it to inflation. Northern Arizona University, Oct.-73% yes, 22% no.
• Montana I-151. Raises minimum wage; indexes it to inflation. MSU-Billings, Oct.-76% yes, 14% no. Previous: Mason-Dixon for Lee Newspapers, Sept.--73% yes, 16% no.
  

Immigration

• Arizona Prop 102. Bars illegal immigrants from winning punitive damages. ASU/KAET-TV, Oct.-55% yes, 28% no.
• Arizona Prop 103. Makes English the official state language. ASU/KAET-TV, Oct.-- 63% yes, 28% no.
• Arizona Prop 300. Bars illegal aliens from receiving state subsidies for education and child care. ASU/KAET-TV, Oct.-- 45% yes, 38% no. Nothern Arizona University, Oct.-70% yes, 22% no.
  

Eminent domain only

• Florida Amendment 8. Bars eminent domain for private purposes. Mason-Dixon, Oct.-51% yes, 25% no. Previous: Zogby for Miami Herald, Sept.--55 percent yes, 36 percent no. Mason-Dixon, Sept.--54% yes, 22% no.

Property takings

• Arizona Prop 207. Bars eminent domain for private purposes, but also requires government to either pay landholders for regulatory barriers to development or else waive those regulations. Northern Arizona University, Oct.-53% yes, 29% no.
• Washington I-933. Bars eminent domain for private purposes, but also requires government to either pay landholders for regulatory barriers to development or else waive those regulations. Elway, Sep.-47% yes, 31% no.
  

Government ethics

• Montana I-153. Two-year revolving-door restrictions on lobbyists. MSU-Billings, Oct.-71% yes, 18% no. Mason-Dixon for Lee Newspapers, Sept.--70% yes, 15% no.