Friday, March 05, 2010

MD Gov Moved to Narrow Advantage for Dems as Ehrlich Readies Rematch Effort

Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) is interviewing staff in preparation for a rematch against Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) in Maryland, according to multiple GOP sources. Given Ehrlich's demonstrated statewide electability and fundraising potential, he must be regarded very serious contender.

O'Malley can no longer be considered safe, but the burden of proof is still on the Republicans to prove Ehrlich can win in a very Democratic state. A Feb. 23 Rasmussen Reports poll showed O'Malley leading Ehrlich 49%-43% in a general election match-up and with a 53% job approval rating- decent numbers compared to many of his colleagues. We're moving the race to from Safe to Narrow Advantage for O'Malley.

Next week, subscribers to the print edition will get our Gubernatorial Overview with new ratings and analysis of all 37 of this year's contests.

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (6 R, 7 D)
  • Brewer (R-AZ)
  • CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
  • CT Open (Rell, R)
  • HI Open (Lingle, R)
  • RI Open (Carcieri, R)
  • VT Open (Douglas, R)
  • Culver (D-IA)
  • KS Open (Parkinson, D)
  • MI Open (Granholm, D)
  • OK Open (Henry, D)
  • PA Open (Rendell, D)
  • TN Open (Bredesen, D)
  • WY Open (Freudenthal, D)
Toss-Up (2 R, 4 D)
  • FL Open (Crist, R)
  • MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
  • CO Open (Ritter, D)
  • Quinn (D-IL)
  • Strickland (D-OH)
  • WI Open (Doyle, D)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 3 D)
  • Gibbons (R-NV)
  • Perry (R-TX)
  • GA Open (Perdue, R)
  • O'Malley (D-MD) *
  • Patrick (D-MA)
  • ME Open (Baldacci, D)
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)
  • AL Open (Riley, R)
  • SC Open (Sanford, R)
  • NM Open (Richardson, D)
  • NY Open (Paterson, D)
Currently Safe (5 R, 3 D)
  • Herbert (R-UT)
  • Heineman (R-NE)
  • Otter (R-ID)
  • Parnell (R-AK)
  • SD Open (Rounds, R)
  • Beebe (D-AR)
  • Lynch (D-NH)
  • OR Open (Kulongoski, D)