New York 23 Moved to Toss-Up

One of the most complex House races in recent history got more interesting over the weekend when liberal GOP state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R) dropped out of the race and endorsed Democratic attorney Bill Owens on the heels of Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, a registered Republican, surging in recent polls.

The national GOP has shifted gears and is now supporting Hoffman, and while we believe he has a slight advantage in tomorrow’s balloting, the dynamics of this race are simply too uncertain (and subsequent polling too unreliable) to make a definitive prediction.

Previously, Scozzafava and Hoffman were dividing the Republican vote in such a way that Owens looked to win with less than 50% of the vote. But now with Scozzafava out, Owens’ path got substantially more difficult. We’re moving the race from Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic to Pure Toss-Up.

Here are our latest House ratings. 2009 races in italics.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Pure Toss-Up (3 R, 12 D)

• AL 2 (Bright, D)
  
• FL 8 (Grayson, D)
  
• ID 1 (Minnick, D)
• IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
• MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
• MS 1 (Childers, D)
• NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
• NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
• NM 2 (Teague, D)
• NY 23 (Open; McHugh, R) *
  
• OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
• OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
• PA 6 (Open; Gerlach, R)
  
• PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
• VA 5 (Periello, D)
  

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (1 R, 1 D)

• LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
• WA 8 (Reichert, R)
  

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 4 D)

• CO 4 (Markey, D)
• FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
• IL 14 (Foster, D)
• MI 7 (Schauer, D)

Lean Republican (2 R, 0 D)

• CA 3 (Lungren, R)
• CA 44 (Calvert, R)
  

Lean Democratic (0 R, 3 D)

• AL 5 (Griffith, D)
  
• NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
  
• NY 29 (Massa, D)
  

Republican Favored (9 R, 0 D)

• AK A-L (Young, R)
• CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
• MI 11 (McCotter, R)
• MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
• MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
• NE 2 (Terry, R)
  
• OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
• OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
  
• PA 15 (Dent, R)
  

Democrat Favored (2 R, 11 D)

• AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
• CA 47 (Sanchez, D)
  
• DE A-L (Open; Castle, R)
• GA 8 (Marshall, D)
  
• LA 2 (Cao, R)
  
• MO 4 (Skelton, D)
  
• NY 19 (Hall, D)
• NY 20 (Murphy, D)
• NC 8 (Kissell, D)
  
• OH 18 (Space, D)
• PA 10 (Carney, D)
  
• TX 17 (Edwards, D)
• VA 2 (Nye, D)

Total seats in play: 48
Republican seats: 17
Democratic seats: 31