Missouri Governor: Hulshof Faces Two Tough Races

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Missouri Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) hasn’t had a tough race in more than a decade, but he chose to leave his safe House seat in order to run for governor. Now he’s in the middle of a competitive primary, with an uphill general election looming if he survives.

Hulshof jumped at the opportunity to run for the Show Me State’s top job when unpopular Gov. Matt Blunt (R), son of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), surprised everyone by announcing in January that he would not seek a second term. Chaos ensued within the party, but the GOP field eventually boiled down to Hulshof and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman.

A July 7-10 Research 2000 poll for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV showed the Congressman leading Steelman 32 percent to 24 percent in the Aug. 5 primary. Two other candidates are in the race and received a combined 17 percent in the poll, but they are not expected to win the nomination.

A June 9-10 American Viewpoint survey for Hulshof’s campaign showed him leading in the primary 39 percent to 26 percent.

The primary has been very competitive, and even bitter at times, but Republicans will need to quickly unify behind their nominee in order to defeat state Attorney General Jay Nixon (D), who has been running for governor for more than two and half years.

The July Research 2000 poll had Nixon leading both Hulshof, 52 percent to 35 percent, and Steelman, 53 percent to 34 percent, in general election match ups. A January Research 2000 survey showed Nixon leading Blunt by 9 points, but controversies during his first term severely limited the governor’s appeal, while Hulshof and Steelman should pull closer by increasing their statewide profiles.

Republicans’ chances of holding the governorship improved when Blunt bowed out, but it’s still a tough hold.

This item first appeared on RollCall.com on July 15, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Where, Oh Where Are the Top House GOP Opportunities?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Not a single Democratic House seat switched to the GOP in 2006 while Republicans were losing 30 Congressional seats.

Could Democrats pitch another shut-out this year? It’s possible, though unlikely, even given the poor Republican poll numbers, the desire for change and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s financial advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee.

After all, Democrats won a handful of reliably Republican districts in 2006 that they will struggle to retain, and no party has been shut out of taking over seats from the opposition in consecutive elections, at least since World War II.

So where are the best GOP chances?

Tier 1 Opportunities

Texas’ 22nd District, Nick Lampson (D). If only one Democratic seat switches to the Republicans, it’s likely to be Lampson’s. Lampson, of course, was defeated for re-election in 2004 (in a different district) only to come back and win Republican Tom DeLay’s open seat in 2006.

Although DeLay dropped his bid for re-election, the Republican nominee was unable to get her name on the ballot and was forced to run as a write-in candidate. Even then, Shelley Sekula Gibbs drew 42 percent of the vote.

Sekula Gibbs almost won her party’s nomination again this time, but she was defeated handily in the runoff by Pete Olson, a former aide to Sen. John Cornyn (R), who was generally regarded as the stronger general election candidate.

Lampson’s district gave President Bush 64 percent in 2004, a reflection of its Republican bent. While Lampson has built a much less liberal record than he did during his first service in the House, he is still a Democrat in a very Republican district. And that makes him the most vulnerable House Democrat in 2008.

Louisiana’s 6th District, Don Cazayoux (D). Cazayoux, a relatively conservative Democrat, is a reasonably good fit for his northeast Louisiana district. Despite that assessment, the reality is that he owes his seat in Congress to Woody Jenkins, the unelectable GOP nominee in the special election held earlier this year.

Cazayoux has a reasonable chance to win a full term in November, but if the Republicans nominate state Sen. Bill Cassidy, who has announced his candidacy, the freshman Democrat will have his hands full. The district definitely leans Republican, and a strong GOP nominee automatically becomes formidable. Republicans caught a rare break when Jenkins decided not to run again.

Tier 2 Opportunities

Kansas’ 2nd District, Nancy Boyda (D). Boyda upset then-Rep. Jim Ryun (R) last time, and the Republican nature of the district (Bush won it by 20 points in 2004) guarantees a serious contest. Ryun faces state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins for the Republican nomination.

Alabama’s 5th District, open seat. Rep. Bud Cramer’s (D) retirement opens up a conservative Southern district that will see stiff competition and should be a GOP target. But the likely Democratic nominee, state Sen. Parker Griffith, looks strong, while the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, Wayne Parker, lost to Cramer twice.

California’s 11th District, Jerry McNerney (D). Freshman McNerney rode the Democratic wave and help from the environmental community to beat Republican Rep. Richard Pombo two years ago, but he isn’t an ideal fit for his Republican- leaning district. The GOP nominee, former state Assemblyman Dean Andal, looks to be a serious threat.

Pennsylvania’s 10th District, Christopher Carney (D). Carney beat a scandal-plagued Republican in a solidly Republican district, and the question is how long he can hold onto the seat. His GOP challenger, businessman Chris Hackett, hasn’t united Republicans following a nasty primary. Still, Carney is in the kind of district that he can never take for granted.

Florida’s 16th District, Tim Mahoney (D). Much like others on the list, Mahoney would not have won last time except for a GOP scandal, but he has been a strong fundraiser and won’t be an easy target for Republicans, who won’t pick a nominee until late August. Still, the GOP is likely to have a credible nominee in this Republican-leaning district.

Other Districts to Watch

Pennsylvania’s 11th district, Paul Kanjorski (D). Democrats are nervous about veteran Kanjorski, who has received his share of negative publicity. The early campaign of Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) has been underwhelming, but that may not matter by the time November arrives. Polling suggests that this may well be a top-tier GOP takeover opportunity by November.

New York’s 20th district, Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Freshman Gillibrand is a fundraising phenom, and she will be very hard to beat in 2008. But former state GOP Chairman Sandy Treadwell has plenty of personal resources and is running in a reliably Republican district that a flawed Republican lost two years ago. The district’s fundamentals alone make this a Republican opportunity.

Wisconsin’s 8th district, Steve Kagen (D). Republican John Gard narrowly lost this Republican open seat last time, but the presidential year should bring out more voters and freshman Kagen hasn’t had the smoothest term.

A handful of other Democratic seats could also produce GOP upsets, including two in Arizona (Rep. Harry Mitchell’s and Rep. Gabrielle Gifford’s), Rep. Carol Shea-Porter’s in New Hampshire and Rep. Jim Marshall’s in Georgia.

No matter what happens, Democratic losses will be few and the party can expect a substantial net gain in November.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on July 14, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

New Print Edition: Mississippi Senate & Alaska Senate

The July 16, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief sample of what's in this edition...


Mississippi Senate: Blue Plate Special?
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Republicans defending a Senate seat in Mississippi is just another sign of how bad 2008 is shaping up to be for the GOP.

Coming into the cycle, many Republicans expected the Magnolia State might have a retirement – Republican Sen. Thad Cochran’s. Cochran decided to run for reelection, but Mississippi’s other senator, Trent Lott (R), decided to call it quits for K Street, just a year after winning reelection.

Gov. Haley Barbour (R) subsequently appointed 1st District Cong. Roger Wicker (R) to fill the open seat, and Wicker is now standing for election this November for the remaining four years of the term. Democrats recruited former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove to run, and even though he lost reelection to Barbour, he starts the race with high name identification.

Meanwhile, Republicans lost Wicker’s open seat in a special election, and Democrats nationwide are energized and starting to count to 60 Senate seats. Mississippi would be part of that equation. Read the whole story by subscribing to the print edition.

Alaska Senate: Legendary Status

Just because they name the airport after you doesn’t mean they won’t throw you out of office.

Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens is the longest serving Republican in the Senate, and he’s in danger of losing reelection. He’s coasted through six reelections, but Stevens is now under federal investigation, just as some of his fellow Republicans in the state are being carted off to jail.

New York Sen. Chuck Schumer and the DSCC successfully recruited Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to run for the Senate. While his political track record isn’t unblemished, he’s the best candidate they could have hoped for in a state where only 14% of voters are registered Democrats.
Despite their confidence, Democrats have to walk a fine line. Even though some of Stevens’ actions make him an easy target, he is still beloved in the state that he has represented for four decades.

For a top tier race, the contest is getting started late. But as the candidates raise money and start their campaigns, everyone has one eye and ear tuned to when the FBI might hand down another indictment. Read the whole story by subscribing to the print edition.

DeMint Embraces Online Fundraising Tool

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) has agreed to use the Republican Web site Slatecard exclusively for his fundraising.

DeMint, one of the most tech-savvy Members of the Senate, is the first Senator to utilize the popular Web site. And it’s just an extension of his efforts to reach constituents, voters and donors through the Web.

“Sen. DeMint is excited about new technologies that allow direct and dynamic communication with people in South Carolina and throughout the country,” DeMint Communications Director Wesley Denton said.

DeMint, the chairman of the Republican Steering Committee, has a sleek Senate Web site, where he and his staff blog. The site also has six separate regional blogs maintained by staff and accessed by inputting a county or ZIP code. He used YouTube to respond to President Bush’s most recent State of the Union address. And he has a Twitter account, but it’s just a feed from the blog on his campaign Web site, not a minute-by-minute breakdown of his daily activities.

The former owner of a marketing company, DeMint has engaged the blogging community and embraced the Internet has a strategic and marketing tool.

He committed just a few days ago to Slatecard and has taken in $3,581 from 12 contributors. But his race for a second term isn’t until 2010.

The move could give the Web site a boost. DeMint is a star within conservatives in the caucus. He raised $9 million in 2004 and will raise more next cycle. DeMint is also using the site to raise money for his political action committee, Senate Conservatives Fund.

Slatecard, considered the Republican equivalent of ActBlue on the Democratic side, has taken in about $411,000 since its inception nine months ago. The goal of the site’s founders is to raise $1 million for the cycle.

ActBlue was founded in 2004 and has taken in $56.8 million since. According to the Wall Street Journal, the site took in nearly $792,000 in its first cycle.

The top Republican fundraiser on Slatecard thus far was Kevin O’Neill, who raised $64,744 from 126 contributors by using Slatecard exclusively for all his fundraising for the special election last fall in Virginia’s 1st district. He lost the GOP nominating contest to Rep. Rob Wittman (R).

The site was co-founded by David All, a former communications director to Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.), and San Diego software developer Sendhil Panchadsaram. All is also the founder of TechRepublican.com.


This item first appeared on RollCall.com on July 11, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.